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Realistic Zach Wilson Take - and How I'll be Evaluating Him Year Two


Doggin94it
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5 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Not in short area quick hits. More so on the downfield throws. Getting quick separation falls on the WR

Except outside WRs aren't the only options there.  Slot receivers and backs don't need to break free from press coverage.  So a QB making quick decisions is also an enormous part of the equation.  

It's also extremely helpful to be able to make good pre-snap decisions and get out of plays that aren't likely to work out well given the coverage seen.  This was something a guy like Sam Darnold was never, ever good at (playing LB in High School probably didn't help his development there; probaby not a good idea to draft a guy like that at 3 overall, either.  Thanks Macc).  

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I also won’t be looking at W/L. As I’ve said I want the QB in top half of NFL starters in JUST ONE of the “big 3” QB stats — yards, TDs, completion %. Then I’ll say okay this guy might be worth another year. I’m not exactly asking for the moon here. Such are my expectations as a Jets fan. I just want the tiniest reason to believe that doesn’t start with “his stats stink but…”

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10 minutes ago, jgb said:

I also won’t be looking at W/L. As I’ve said I want the QB in top half of NFL starters in JUST ONE of “big 3” QB stats — yards, TDs, completion %. Then I’ll say okay this guys might be worth another year. I’m not exactly asking for the moon here. Such are my expectations as a Jets fan. I just want the tiniest reason to believe that doesn’t start with “his stats stink but…”

The following are the production numbers for every NFL QB who started either 16 or 17 games in 2021.  

I've included an "average" line, calculating the average of that stat based on this list of Starting QB's.

The Average isn't perfect as a measuring stick, but it gives a good, generic idea of where a QB would need to finish in a given stat to be about average in that metric for this population of full-year-starters.

Chart is sorted by Passing Yards for this purpose.

Note: In this list, there is only one QB who sticks out as well below average, Trevor Lawrence.  He brings down the averages quite a bit.

Almost all 16 or 17 game starters, excluding Lawrence, have Comp %'s well north of 63%, most throw for over 3,700 yards, most have a 2:1 or much better TD:INT ratio.  

So if Wilson is able to stay healthy, and start 16 or 17 games, 63%, 3,700, 2:1 are all (IMO) reasonable criteria to expect for him, unless he (like Lawrence in 2021) is simply well below average.

image.thumb.png.e95ddc75b6bc804d5cbfabba08415dc4.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The following are the production numbers for every NFL QB who started either 16 or 17 games in 2021.  

I've included an "average" line, calculating the average of that stat based on this list of Starting QB's.

The Average isn't perfect as a measuring stick, but it gives a good, generic idea of where a QB would need to finish in a given stat to be about average in that metric for this population of full-year-starters.

Chart is sorted by Passing Yards for this purpose.

Note: In this list, there is only one QB who sticks out as well below average, Trevor Lawrence.  He brings down the averages quite a bit.

Almost all 16 or 17 game starters, excluding Lawrence, have Comp %'s well north of 63%, most throw for over 3,700 yards, most have a 2:1 or much better TD:INT ratio.  

So if Wilson is able to stay healthy, and start 16 or 17 games, 63%, 3,700, 2:1 are all (IMO) reasonable criteria to expect for him, unless he (like Lawrence in 2021) is simply well below average.

image.thumb.png.e95ddc75b6bc804d5cbfabba08415dc4.png

 

Wow thanks for putting this together!

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6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The following are the production numbers for every NFL QB who started either 16 or 17 games in 2021.  

I've included an "average" line, calculating the average of that stat based on this list of Starting QB's.

The Average isn't perfect as a measuring stick, but it gives a good, generic idea of where a QB would need to finish in a given stat to be about average in that metric for this population of full-year-starters.

Chart is sorted by Passing Yards for this purpose.

Note: In this list, there is only one QB who sticks out as well below average, Trevor Lawrence.  He brings down the averages quite a bit.

Almost all 16 or 17 game starters, excluding Lawrence, have Comp %'s well north of 63%, most throw for over 3,700 yards, most have a 2:1 or much better TD:INT ratio.  

So if Wilson is able to stay healthy, and start 16 or 17 games, 63%, 3,700, 2:1 are all (IMO) reasonable criteria to expect for him, unless he (like Lawrence in 2021) is simply well below average.

image.thumb.png.e95ddc75b6bc804d5cbfabba08415dc4.png

 

Are those the averages of the top 16 or top 32? Looks like top 16 to me, in which case the average would then be top ~25% in the league. That’s a lot better than average. 

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7 minutes ago, slats said:

Are those the averages of the top 16 or top 32? Looks like top 16 to me, in which case the average would then be top ~25% in the league. That’s a lot better than average. 

He only used the QBs who started 16 or 17 games.

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8 minutes ago, jgb said:

He only used the QBs who started 16 or 17 games.

I’ll have to look it up myself, should I remember. Those are numbers that would set a couple franchise records. Suffice to say, they seem high. 

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1 minute ago, slats said:

I’ll have to look it up myself, should I remember. Those are numbers that would set a couple franchise records. Suffice to say, they seem high. 

Problem is you’ve got a couple guys flirting with 5,000 yards every year that really skew that average. Median maybe is a better figure to get an accurate idea of the average starting QB stats.

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18 minutes ago, slats said:

Are those the averages of the top 16 or top 32?

As stated, they are the average of all NFL QB's in 2021 who started 16 or 17 games.

18 minutes ago, slats said:

Looks like top 16 to me, in which case the average would then be top ~25% in the league. That’s a lot better than average. 

The only metric that excluded a QB was starting less than 16 games.  Yes, that was a total of 16 QB's in 2021.

Hence this is the average for all NFL QB's who started all or nearly all of their teams games in 2021.  The only requirement to be on this list was to remain healthy enough to start 16 or 17 games.

Now, if one wanted to do a weighted production type analysis, where every QB's production was inflated to a full 17 games started season, they could certainly do that, and then include all starting QB's. 

Of course, such inflation by itself is speculation, not fact.  Hence why it was not done here.

And one could do the same thing I did but include QB's who played 15, 14, as few games as they wishes, without weighting.  Of course, the motivation behind that would be rather obvious, to set a bar for 17 games based on what other guys produced in 13 games, lol.

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10 minutes ago, slats said:

I’ll have to look it up myself, should I remember. Those are numbers that would set a couple franchise records. Suffice to say, they seem high. 

You can always do the math yourself if you doubt them, but Excel rarely leads me astray.  It literally is just the AVG function used on the population listed.

 

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1 minute ago, Warfish said:

You can always do the math yourself if you doubt them, but Excel rarely leads me astray.  It literally is just the AVG function used on the population listed.

 

I think it’s just sobering to see it in print then compare to the rubbish production we’ve gotten out of the position for 23 of the last 25 years.

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Just because WR's CAN beat man coverage doesn't mean they do it on every play.  Herbert threw for 4,336 yards, 31 TDs and 10 INTs as a rookie.  Are you suggesting that in all that production, he didn't throw receivers open from time to time?

And OL protection absolutely matters in the equation.  If your OL doesn't give you much time, then having the ability to throw receivers open is an absolutely essential trait for a QB.  It's an excuse we've been hearing for bad Jets QB's for well over a decade.  "NO ONE WAS OPEN" or "HE WAS RUNNING FOR HIS LIFE OUT THERE" really doesn't fly as a consistent excuse.  Nor is it usually even accurate.  Fans/media have been going to games and reported seeing WR's who are indeed open, and QB's who have time to throw but the QB simply doesn't find him and either takes a sack or makes a bad decision with the ball instead.

Good QB's make plays in this league and bad QB's don't.  We've seen that consistently and the long list of excuses made don't end up being accurate in the end.  The likes of Mark Sanchez and Sam Darnold didn't perform markedly better even when their situations improved when they moved on to other, more competent teams.  Meanwhile, a guy like Matthew Stafford made plays for a long time in this league even with bad teams around him.

 

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Care to cite some examples of "developed QB's"?

And maybe, for clarity, how you define a "developed QB".

I presume you have to mean something like "coached up and worked hard to be materially better than they were when they entered the league over the course of their first few (1-3) season" or something similar.

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins, and Josh Allen. They are all better than they were as a rookie. Maturation, understanding defenses and getting accustomed to the speed of the game among other factors all play in the development of a QB. To think a rookie QB is the same player 5 years in the league is a bit naive.

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9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Here is a revised Avg. based on all QB's with as few as 10 starts in 2021.  No weighting or inflation.

And per JGB's suggestion, I've included the Median as well for the same stats for the same population.

The results are somewhat similar for the two methods:  64% completion rate, ~3,700 passing yards, 21-22 TD's vs. 11-12 INT's.

image.thumb.png.ca043fa1f61df015375bd1b1c932bda7.png

 

3700 yards/22 TDs is a lot closer to where I think (hope!) Zach will be this year than 4300/30. These QBs also average 15 games started, or have 16 as the median, so not far off your original premise. 

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32 minutes ago, Claymation said:

 

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins, and Josh Allen. They are all better than they were as a rookie. Maturation, understanding defenses and getting accustomed to the speed of the game among other factors all play in the development of a QB. To think a rookie QB is the same player 5 years in the league is a bit naive.

I apologize, I'm not seeing evidence of "being developed", just a list of QB's who either improved or just didn't play early on.

Improving isn't the same as being developed.  

Not sure this is an argument worth having tbh.  Kirk Cousins, for example, was definitely not "developed" by Washington.  Not at all, lol.

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13 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Here is a revised Avg. based on all QB's with as few as 10 starts in 2021.  No weighting or inflation.

And per JGB's suggestion, I've included the Median as well for the same stats for the same population.

The results are somewhat similar for the two methods:  64% completion rate, ~3,700 passing yards, 21-22 TD's vs. 11-12 INT's.

image.thumb.png.ca043fa1f61df015375bd1b1c932bda7.png

 

Nice. Those are good barometers in my book.

Another way is to look at it is with y/a. The median is about 7.2. If you assume the Jets are run heavy and Zach only averages 30 pass attempts per game over 17 games, that’ll total just under 3,700.

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7 minutes ago, slats said:

3700 yards/22 TDs is a lot closer to where I think (hope!) Zach will be this year than 4300/30. These QBs also average 15 games started, or have 16 as the median, so not far off your original premise. 

While I think there is a very meaningful difference between "actually playing 16-17 games" and "being part of a large population that averages 16 games started", you are correct.

You can choose to look at it either way, and find insights in either analysis.  

Interesting that the guy closest to the average/mean in 2021 was broke down old Big Ben, with a 64.5%, ~3,740 yards and 22 to 10 TD:INT.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, slats said:

3700 yards/22 TDs is a lot closer to where I think (hope!) Zach will be this year than 4300/30. These QBs also average 15 games started, or have 16 as the median, so not far off your original premise. 

Tua’s career per game average translated to 17 games:

3,616 yards

22 TDs

12 INTs

66% completion rate.

So we basically have the same hope for our QB. Welcome to the dark side!  🤗 

 

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Tua’s career per game average translated to 17 games:

3,616 yards

22 TDs

12 INTs

66% completion rate.

So we basically have the same hope for our QB. 🤗 

 

I honestly don’t like to put specific numbers on it, because numbers lie. I am not a fan of Cousins, Garoppolo, Alex Smith, etc., despite their numbers. I don’t have a strong opinion on Tua one way or the other but do generally agree with you that he gets a bum rap around here. He produces. I feel like he has the lower ceiling, I guess. If Zach turns out to be a top 12 type passer who comes up small in big spots, I will not want him extended. If he puts up numbers like this but then catches fire in the postseason? Yeah, that’s more of what I’m looking for. 

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11 minutes ago, jgb said:

Tua’s career per game average translated to 17 games:

3,616 yards

22 TDs

12 INTs

66% completion rate.

So we basically have the same hope for our QB. Welcome to the dark side!  🤗 

 

Should be the floor for Zach in year 2. If not we bring out the tanks. We have to be hoping for more long term. No? I hope.

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6 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Should be the floor for Zach in year 2. If not we bring out the tanks. We have to be hoping for more long term. No? I hope.

Yeah I'm talking about Year 2.

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He also had the # 32 ranked OL and a HC who ended up getting fired but let's just gloss over that part.

Herbert’s top WRs were also on the field along with a viable TE

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26 minutes ago, jgb said:

So basically… Tua numbers.

Who everyone here thinks sucks. And yet I’m a negative fake fan troll for saying I need to see our QB play at least as good as that.

Not a troll.

I dont see Tua as FQB. If Zach matches him, I’d be disappointed. My hope is he approaches 4k. These numbers are the bare minimum for me not to join the club of non-believers.

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6 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Herbert’s top WRs were also on the field along with a viable TE

Maybe we can do a QB exchange with the Chargers for a couple weeks so that evaluations of our QB are possible

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13 minutes ago, slats said:

I honestly don’t like to put specific numbers on it, because numbers lie.

Numbers only lie to those who either don't understand them, or fail to dig into them to understand the bigger picture.

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3 hours ago, Claymation said:

Man coverage has more to do with WR than QB. A WR who can't get open in man is useless.

It's more complicated than you're making it out to be in my opinion. The receiver has to be able to separate through running precise routes, disguising the route through the stem, and ultimately reading the defense on option routes. So yes, they have a big impact and I think the point you're alluding to is the utter lack of talent that was healthy by the end of the year limiting Zach.

But ultimately, it's on both players. Zach made a lot of poor decisions last year and his timing and accuracy was off. I stand by that part of it was mechanical (footwork), and part was he was too late in deciding when to make his throws. I think the kid has got more football smarts and work ethic than Darnold for example, so I'm optimistic he gets better. Also, he passed up a crap ton of open completions underneath because he yolo balled a lot earlier in the season. Things got a lot better towards the end of the season with worse talent, so hopefully now that he has legitimate weapons he'll actually keep progressing.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Definitely. That's what I meant by "getting the ball out on time and in phase" - the ball should be consistently coming out at the top of his drop, no hitching or reseting. Obviously, the D will have something to say about that, and when the play is well covered it won't look like that. But when it's there, he needs to be seeing it and hitting it, on time and in rhythm

Agreed. It's why Mike White can be successful in this offense when he's clearly inferior arm talent-wise. He isn't something special (sorry TomShane) but he showcases how QB friendly this offense is supposed to be. Establish the run, take advantage of levels concepts in the passing game, play action pass for explosives, get a lead, let the pass rush get home to close the game. It's what the system is designed for. Get the ball to your playmakers and let them do the work.

 

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51 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I apologize, I'm not seeing evidence of "being developed", just a list of QB's who either improved or just didn't play early on.

Improving isn't the same as being developed.  

Not sure this is an argument worth having tbh.  Kirk Cousins, for example, was definitely not "developed" by Washington.  Not at all, lol.

I have no intention on playing the semantics game. 

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32 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Numbers only lie to those who either don't understand them, or fail to dig into them to understand the bigger picture.

I recognize that this is your opinion. Mine is that you put too much weight on statistics. In fact, I’d say that it’s you placing a lot of value on the raw numbers while I’m the one digging into them trying to understand the bigger picture. Again; perspective. 
 
And that’s about as many hairs as I feel like splitting on this one, lol. 

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