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Realistic Zach Wilson Take - and How I'll be Evaluating Him Year Two


Doggin94it
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22 minutes ago, slats said:

I recognize that this is your opinion. Mine is that you put too much weight on statistics. In fact, I’d say that it’s you placing a lot of value on the raw numbers while I’m the one digging into them trying to understand the bigger picture. Again; perspective. 
 
And that’s about as many hairs as I feel like splitting on this one, lol. 

I had a longer reply, but honestly, it just isn't worth the effort.  Think what you like.

Just do us both a favor, if all you have to offer is ultimately "numbers lie" please just skip my numbers-analysis based posts.  

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6 hours ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Not really based on stats for me.

Based on watching him play quarterback.

Can we really call that playing the position?  Not for me, either.  Zach better step up...and fast.   Two years from now, he'll be a backup in Seattle.

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2 hours ago, jgb said:

I also won’t be looking at W/L. As I’ve said I want the QB in top half of NFL starters in JUST ONE of the “big 3” QB stats — yards, TDs, completion %. Then I’ll say okay this guy might be worth another year. I’m not exactly asking for the moon here. Such are my expectations as a Jets fan. I just want the tiniest reason to believe that doesn’t start with “his stats stink but…”

I think if that's your metric you're destined for disappointment - yards and TDs are volume stats and this offense will still be rush heavy, and top half of the league in completion percentage would be a huge jump. I'll take a final 8 games that project out to Warfish's numbers or better over a full season.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

Maybe we can do a QB exchange with the Chargers for a couple weeks so that evaluations of our QB are possible

Suddenly Keenan Allen would develop a case of the "drops" and Jets fans would be convinced he now sucks.

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43 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

The one thing I caution Jet fans on is this narrative that Zach “looked good” down the stretch. The numbers just don't bear that out. Zach didn’t have one game with over 250 yards. In 3 of the 7 Zach failed to get above 150 yards. His passing complete percentage stayed sub 60 In every game outside Jacksonville. (literally the worst team in the league)

Yup.

First 5 games: Train Wreck. Net negative to the team

Last 7 games: Protected the football. Which is a far cry from good.

He only really looked good in 1 game last year. He played well in the Bucs game. The Jax game might be considered an ok. He had that long run and a couple other nice runs.

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1 hour ago, Claymation said:

 

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins, and Josh Allen. They are all better than they were as a rookie. Maturation, understanding defenses and getting accustomed to the speed of the game among other factors all play in the development of a QB. To think a rookie QB is the same player 5 years in the league is a bit naive.

Why did you quote my post in this response to Warfish?  You didn't respond to any of the points I made in it.

That's just lazy.  Look how jacked my left arm is.  Do I look like someone who let's people get away with laziness?

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Rookie year is generally a wash. For every Herbert there’s a Vince Young somewhere. Anything around replacement is fine for sophomore year. Year 3 is when you generally know what you have unless it’s Jamarcus Russell or something. 

The Jets finally have some guys that can do stuff with the ball so I would hope everything centers around Wilson getting the ball into their hands quickly. Wilson is at his worst when he’s chasing the deep ball and IMO Douglas went to a ton of trouble to make sure that comes down a notch this year. 

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6 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Yup.

First 5 games: Train Wreck. Net negative to the team

Last 7 games: Protected the football. Which is a far cry from good.

He only really looked good in 1 game last year. He played well in the Bucs game. The Jax game might be considered an ok. He had that long run and a couple other nice runs.

It was a tale of two halves. I’m not even sure what looking good means when it comes to rookies but what I am sure of is that rookie seasons, within certain boundaries, tend to be bad predictors of what a guy is. 

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4 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Haven't watched him closely enough to have a detailed plan but if I were a Pats fan my primary concerns (from afar) would be the change in OC, how he plays in cold weather, and if he'll ever be more than just a game manager

I'd have him work on the way he uses his walk

 

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6 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I’m not even sure what looking good means when it comes to rookies but what I am sure of is that rookie seasons, within certain boundaries, tend to be bad predictors of what a guy is

I mean, for the number overall 2 pick I expected more then 9 TDs 11 INTs sub 2500 yards. Understand the injury and all but for alot of the season the game looked way to fast for him. It was concerning even for a rookie. But like you said, year 2 is a better indicator of what Zach will be, a Great QB or another Mitch Trubisky. We will find out. 

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

Maybe we can do a QB exchange with the Chargers for a couple weeks so that evaluations of our QB are possible

Maybe we should open our minds to more than trying to decide on a players fate by more than just using matrixes to make the case for a take while comparing apples to oranges.  Or by using even dumber ideals of what a 2nd year QB should produce numbers wise regardless of team circumstances 

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45 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Bahaha the first thing I saw when I logged in was the gif as my new avatar and I knew @The Crusher was the one responsible.

As much as I liked my prior avatar I'll keep this one (even though I'm not a lefty).  Damn you both.  

Blame Slats, I was just following orders. 

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11 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Blame Slats, I was just following orders. 

You’re certainly providing some interesting insights into the org chart at JN.

Max 

.

faba

.

slats (power top)

.

nycdan/lith

.

Crusher (big bottom)

 

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37 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

I mean, for the number overall 2 pick I expected more then 9 TDs 11 INTs sub 2500 yards. Understand the injury and all but for alot of the season the game looked way to fast for him. It was concerning even for a rookie. But like you said, year 2 is a better indicator of what Zach will be, a Great QB or another Mitch Trubisky. We will find out. 

There’s really no expectations for rookies other than don’t be Brian Brohm. Everything’s concerning. A guy being too good can even be concerning. The variance is so preposterous for raw numbers as an expectation that you might as well check off how many times the guy carried some vet’s luggage as a meaningful variable as well. Everyone on the planet that’s great with numbers has tried running them on this specific topic and nobody has still come up with anything other than some basic boundaries a rookie year should take place in. 

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2021 “team middle of the pack numbers”  (Ref SF, NE, etc.) :

6000 Total Offensive Yds / Season =

350 =   Avg Total Yds / Game

25   =   Avg Total Pts / Game

125 RYD/G

225 PYD/G = 3,825

1.5  PTD/G = 25.5

1.5  RTD/G

 

Scoring 3 TD’s per week is a reasonable expectation.  Taking into consideration the run-heavy system, I believe those average rush/pass splits are also reasonable.  With better receiving, viable TE’s, and (2) pass-catching RB's, he should easily surpass 60 % CPCT.

 

3,800 / 27 TD / 63% / 15 INT = Success (IMO). 

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4 hours ago, jgb said:

As I’ve said I want the QB in top half of NFL starters in JUST ONE of the “big 3” QB stats — yards, TDs, completion %. 

I agree. I think he's going to work out, but I think it is completely unacceptable if his completion % is not pretty good this year. With this offense, it can be very good. 63-65% is average in the league.  I also think his TD:Interception ratio has to be decent.

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2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Maybe we should open our minds to more than trying to decide on a players fate by more than just using matrixes to make the case for a take while comparing apples to oranges.  Or by using even dumber ideals of what a 2nd year QB should produce numbers wise regardless of team circumstances 

Predictions are fun and stuff.

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19 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The horror

I remember back when Darnold was in the middle of face-planting his 2nd or 3rd year and there were posters here saying it was good he wasn't yet showing his secret-good-QB-in-hiding self so that the Jets can extend him cheaply and have him locked in for when the team around him is ready to compete.

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Suddenly Keenan Allen would develop a case of the "drops" and Jets fans would be convinced he now sucks.

It's his fault his arms are too short for him to field grounders without bending and breaking stride

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2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

I think if that's your metric you're destined for disappointment - yards and TDs are volume stats and this offense will still be rush heavy, and top half of the league in completion percentage would be a huge jump. I'll take a final 8 games that project out to Warfish's numbers or better over a full season.

I said yards, TDs or completion percentage. No excuse not to be top half of league in the offense you describe.

This is an extraordinarily low bar for a supposed franchise savior. Yet the pre-excuses are already beginning.

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

I said yards, TDs or completion percentage. No excuse not to be top half of league with the offense you describe.

True, but might need to add a caveat with that expectation.  Chad Pennington’s completion % was excellent, but he spent much of his career dumping down to RBs and inflating his #’s against bad teams.  

Definitely not what we should hope for out of a # 2 overall pick with a big arm. 

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6 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Those are good measuring sticks and they become set in stone year 3.  (Deleted the quote but this was to @Warfish ‘s post)

Food Lol GIF by Justin Gammon
 

Vibes Add GIF by Wikipedia
 

Season 3 Episode 302 GIF by Rick and Morty
 

 

Who was better, Chad Pennington or JaMarcus Russell? 

 

Just asking, no reason...

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12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

True, but might need to add a caveat with that expectation.  Chad Pennington’s completion % was excellent, but he spent much of his career dumping down to RBs and inflating his #’s against bad teams.  

Definitely not what we should hope for out of a # 2 overall pick with a big arm. 

Which is why those who call me a hater are funny. If this was jump rope, I've put the rope on the ground for our QB. The pre-excuses demonstrate that words don't match convictions of many.

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8 hours ago, maury77 said:

@Doggin94it I agree with most of your post (with the exception that I see a good arm, not an elite arm, and as @Warfish stated, I didn't see many plays that only Wilson could make), however, I think a big area that needs to be watched is whether Wilson's pocket management improves. Aside from his accuracy, I thought his pocket management was Wilson's worst area. We need to see him stop bailing the pocket so early and running backwards; instead, we need to see improved confidence and stepping up into the pocket. 

The windows he put some throws into, thimble size, in the Tampa game, showed an elite arm.  He was stepping up in the pocket much of the time post injury.

For the most part, post injury, Wilson’s game was ascendent.  

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

I said yards, TDs or completion percentage. No excuse not to be top half of league in the offense you describe.

This is an extraordinarily low bar for a supposed franchise savior. Yet the pre-excuses are already beginning.

No. Given the offense, the only one of those that's likely on the table at all (just due to volume of passing) is completion percentage. And expecting a 7-point bump in a single year is too much.

Shift your expectations over to advanced stats like Yards per attempt, yards per completion, DPOA - things that don't depend primarily on volume. 

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1 minute ago, Doggin94it said:

No. Given the offense, the only one of those that's likely on the table at all (just due to volume of passing) is completion percentage. And expecting a 7-point bump in a single year is too much.

Shift your expectations over to advanced stats like Yards per attempt, yards per completion, DPOA - things that don't depend primarily on volume. 

My expectations are my own and I’ve already compromised them enough for the #2 overall pick in a strong QB class. 

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4 minutes ago, jgb said:

My expectations are my own and I’ve already compromised them enough for the #2 overall pick in a strong QB class. 

OK. My opinion is your expectations are silly and make as much sense as evaluating a sports car by towing capacity, but it's a free country.

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