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Realistic Zach Wilson Take - and How I'll be Evaluating Him Year Two


Doggin94it
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1 minute ago, Doggin94it said:

OK. My opinion is your expectations are silly and make as much sense as evaluating a sports car by towing capacity, but it's a free country.

With defenders like you, the QB doesn’t need critics.

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The horror

Anomalies raise flags no matter the direction. Fairly fundamental concept of numbers. Good is obviously preferable to bad but it's really no surprise that you look at the top rookie seasons ever and there are plenty of busts littered throughout. The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

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9 hours ago, Warfish said:

I had a longer reply, but honestly, it just isn't worth the effort.  Think what you like.

Just do us both a favor, if all you have to offer is ultimately "numbers lie" please just skip my numbers-analysis based posts.  

People impugn the numbers (or the motivation of those that complied them), then when they can’t deny what’s in front of them any longer, they say the numbers don’t count anyway. That’s as close to a concession you’re ever going to get on the Internet in 2022. 

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15 hours ago, Warfish said:

I had a longer reply, but honestly, it just isn't worth the effort.  Think what you like.

Just do us both a favor, if all you have to offer is ultimately "numbers lie" please just skip my numbers-analysis based posts.  

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Football is far too complex a game to affix a simple number number system to understand it, hence the advance stats community surrounding the sport, with new formulas trying to account for more variables trying to explain what’s going on. Posting raw simple stats and calculating averages and means is hardly an analysis without any context. It’s just numbers. 

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1 hour ago, slats said:

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Football is far too complex a game to affix a simple number number system to understand it, hence the advance stats community surrounding the sport, with new formulas trying to account for more variables trying to explain what’s going on. Posting raw simple stats and calculating averages and means is hardly an analysis without any context. It’s just numbers. 

IMO, it's rather clear the implication behind this ongoing objection to any stats-based look, i.e. the "numbers lying" refrain, is that you do not believe Zach will reach even average NFL QB Production in 2022.

So you reject the very idea that there even IS an average level of production.  A belief I am sure will change very quickly if Zach goes for 4,000+ and a 30:10 season in 2022, lol.  

So no worries, you enjoy your "eye tests", and I'll enjoy posting the things I think are of value.  

  

 

 

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1 hour ago, slats said:

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Football is far too complex a game to affix a simple number number system to understand it, hence the advance stats community surrounding the sport, with new formulas trying to account for more variables trying to explain what’s going on. Posting raw simple stats and calculating averages and means is hardly an analysis without any context. It’s just numbers. 

At the end of every year you can look at basic QB stats for the entire league and get a good relative comparison of any QB who has started most to all of the games against every other QB in the NFL that year.

Not perfect, maybe not even statistically relevant, but a snapshot under the same number of games and same basic rules and rule interpretation.  

Obviously the more years, more comparative stats against  the competition under roughly the same rules and conditions give you a better look.

Lots of advanced stats are based on even smaller sample size of smaller data point and may have less relevance in getting a comparative snapshot. 

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1 minute ago, Warfish said:

IMO, it's rather clear the implication behind this ongoing objection to any stats-based look, i.e. the "numbers lying" refrain, is that you do not believe Zach will reach even average NFL QB Production in 2022.

So you reject the very idea that there even IS an average level of production.  A belief I am sure will change very quickly if Zach goes for 4,000+ and a 30:10 season in 2022, lol.  

So no worries, you enjoy your "eye tests", and I'll enjoy posting the things I think are of value.  

Actually I’ve already said that your second set of numbers, which reflected the true average better than your first, was about where my expectations for this season lie. 
 
My position is that the Jets will be looking to be a top rushing team this year. Last year, the top five rushing teams were the Eagles, Colts, Ravens, Browns, and Titans. Of those, only the Ravens had more yards passing than the Jets. I’d certainly be very pleased if Zach put up a huge season this year, I just expect a much more balanced attack, one that leans heavily on the run. 

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2 hours ago, slats said:

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Football is far too complex a game to affix a simple number number system to understand it, hence the advance stats community surrounding the sport, with new formulas trying to account for more variables trying to explain what’s going on. Posting raw simple stats and calculating averages and means is hardly an analysis without any context. It’s just numbers. 

When you start by averaging the production of the top QBS and the list is made up of 3 HOF QBs and three on their way you need to start over.   
You look for improved play.  If you can’t do that by watching a QB, need him to meet a minimum statistical level you would miss the picture 

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42 minutes ago, slats said:

Last year, the top five rushing teams were the Eagles, Colts, Ravens, Browns, and Titans. Of those, only the Ravens had more yards passing than the Jets. I’d certainly be very pleased if Zach put up a huge season this year, I just expect a much more balanced attack, one that leans heavily on the run. 

the idea that the Jets drafted Zach Wilson 2 overall to build a top 5 rushing attack feels less than ideal

I mean, they could have gotten anyone for that manager job 

the Eagles and ravens BTW have a rushing attack led by their QB, something ZW can't do. 

as for the Physical ability of Zach he does in fact have an elite arm, throwing 60 MPH last year

it's the rest of his body that's suspect, especially his knees, shoulders and any other flimsy joint that causes him to miss time 

the dude missed a month as a rookie it's going to be durability that's his biggest weakness, throughout his career 

the arm is awesome the rest of him is shockingly below average 

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Last year this is what 16 ranked in QB stats looked like

Completion percentage 66.3

Yards 3,740

TD's 21

QBR 92.2

YPA 7.2

 

This is what 10 looked like

Completion percentage 67.2

Yards 44115

TD's 27

QBR 98.5

YPA 7.5

 

This is what 5 looks like

Completion percentage 68.4

Yards 4,804

TD's 37

QBR 103.1

YPA 7.8

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bitonti said:

the idea that the Jets drafted Zach Wilson 2 overall to build a top 5 rushing attack feels less than ideal

I mean, they could have gotten anyone for that manager job 

the Eagles and ravens BTW have a rushing attack led by their QB, something ZW can't do. 

as for the Physical ability of Zach he does in fact have an elite arm, throwing 60 MPH last year

it's the rest of his body that's suspect, especially his knees, shoulders and any other flimsy joint that causes him to miss time 

the dude missed a month as a rookie it's going to be durability that's his biggest weakness, throughout his career 

the arm is awesome the rest of him is shockingly below average 

I’m not suggesting this as a long term plan, or that they will be looking to turn Zach into a game manager. I’m saying that this is the plan for this season, in an effort to get Zach as comfortable as possible and hopefully grow into his potential over the course of the next season or two. 
 
Also firmly believe that Zach was a healthy scratch by at least the Miami game, but that they didn’t want to throw him to wolves so they gave him that extra time off. That if he was playing better, he would’ve been back in the lineup a lot sooner. You can criticize that, too, if you like, but I don’t think he’s nearly as fragile as you’d like to make him out to be. Eyewitnesses have reported him looking beefy this year. 

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13 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Anomalies raise flags no matter the direction. Fairly fundamental concept of numbers. Good is obviously preferable to bad but it's really no surprise that you look at the top rookie seasons ever and there are plenty of busts littered throughout. The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

We call this, the Timo Perez.

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3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If we wanted a Game Manager to shepherd a top-of-league rushing attack, Mac Jones was the obvious top choice and could have been had for much cheaper than Zach.

We drafted Zach Wilson @ #2 overall to be a top 5 or top 10 passing QB.  To be a Franchise QB who elevated the talent around him. 

To win games with his arm and via passing TD's.

Right now the actual confidence of a portion of our fanbase is clearly and unquestionably shaken, hence the rather extreme goalpost moving and both diminished and deferred expectations from that population of fans.

 

yup.  Expectations diminished in a hurry.  We are in cross your fingers mode and nobody should be blindly buying in to what the beat writers and Jets themselves say.  At this point, it doesn't matter much to me what I reread about him...  I need to see him playing vs an NFL defense (that is not his own) before buying into anyone's hype.  

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I take comfort in knowing so many here are such experts on QB play that they can know that Zach is dumb, can't go through progressions, is limited athletically, small, inaccurate, terrible in the pocket, does not know how to "move up" in the pocket and generally stinks.  Should be a fun 5 weeks.

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5 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I take comfort in knowing so many here are such experts on QB play that they can know that Zach is dumb, can't go through progressions, is limited athletically, small, inaccurate, terrible in the pocket, does not know how to "move up" in the pocket and generally stinks.  Should be a fun 5 weeks.

straw man
[ˌstrô ˈman]
NOUN
an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument:
"her familiar procedure of creating a straw man by exaggerating their approach" ·

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15 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Good is obviously preferable to bad but it's really no surprise that you look at the top rookie seasons ever and there are plenty of busts littered throughout. The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

Eh - Is this true?

For QB's generally it seems the best rookie QB seasons have been a pretty decent indicator that they go on to be good players. Certainly in recent history post rule changes where it isn't quite the baptism of fire it used to be. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-best-rookie-quarterback-seasons-of-the-past-15-years-can-mac-jones-russell-wilson

From that list only RGIII and Winston were busts and tbh the former was more due to his knee getting destroyed than him not being good enough. Minshew and Bridgewater aren't stars but hardly bad players. Everyone else is somewhere between good and elite for their career. Too early to say with Mac Jones obviously but Herbert and Burrow already look like stars.

Very rarely does a player have a great rookie year and then bomb into Sanchez/Darnold/Rosen levels inexplicably. I can't think of too many examples. 

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4 hours ago, Warfish said:

Right now the actual confidence of a portion of our fanbase is clearly and unquestionably shaken, hence the rather extreme goalpost moving and both diminished and deferred expectations from that population of fans.

We were all there. We all saw Zach Wilson’s tale of two seasons, one of which was better than the other, but neither was very good. It’s not like we watched the games on competing networks sabotaging the other’s POV. He wasn’t good and we all know it. He did not come in and set the world on fire, so now he’s a project. 
 
So yes, after observing last season and the moves that the team has made to their roster this year, I have come to some conclusions about how I believe they expect the offense to run. They let two WRs walk, and brought in one. That one could be really good, but he’s a rookie this year. However, they did bring in two veteran FA TEs who have produced on this level and added another top prospect in the third round. This suggests to me a lot of 12/21 personnel this year, probably running and passing out of those formations, too. They clearly intend to run the football. Joe Douglas didn’t trade up in the second round to draft a RB unless they 100% had a plan for that player. He’s a positional value kinda guy, it’s one of the things I like about him. This clearly looks like they’re trying to build an offense that takes as much pressure off of the QB as possible. A team that looks to dominate the line of scrimmage with the running game, and provide big, short range targets in the passing game. This does not look to me like an offense designed to produce big passing numbers. It looks much more like it’s designed to be an efficient offense. 

 

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

We drafted Zach Wilson @ #2 overall to be a top 5 or top 10 passing QB.  To be a Franchise QB who elevated the talent around him.

Sure, of course they did. We all would’ve liked to’ve seen that last year, too. We didn’t. We still want to. I think the team wants to see that, too. So what they’re doing, imho, is helping to make that transition as comfortable as possible. For me -and I think the original premise of this thread- it’s okay if Zach isn’t a top 5 or 10 QB this year, as long as progress is being made. They look to be putting him in a position to be an efficient QB, so I want to see efficiency this year with enough of those splash plays mixed in to keep my glass full for 2023, lol. 

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Everyone seems to agree that Zach's arm is currently his best attribute - the Jets included.  So, why would they put it on the shelf?  They won't.  The running game adds balance.  When Zach doesn't have to throw nearly every down, and the defense doesn't know when it's coming, he'll be launching it down field.  They didn't sign Garrett Wilson to run slants and fades. 

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On 6/21/2022 at 9:51 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Bahaha the first thing I saw when I logged in was the gif as my new avatar and I knew @The Crusher was the one responsible.

As much as I liked my prior avatar I'll keep this one (even though I'm not a lefty).  Damn you both.  

A little “heavy-handed” don’t you think? 
The Office Lol GIF

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11 hours ago, slats said:

However, they did bring in two veteran FA TEs who have produced on this level and added another top prospect in the third round. This suggests to me a lot of 12/21 personnel this year, probably running and passing out of those formations, too. They clearly intend to run the football. Joe Douglas didn’t trade up in the second round to draft a RB unless they 100% had a plan for that player. He’s a positional value kinda guy, it’s one of the things I like about him. This clearly looks like they’re trying to build an offense that takes as much pressure off of the QB as possible. A team that looks to dominate the line of scrimmage with the running game, and provide big, short range targets in the passing game. This does not look to me like an offense designed to produce big passing numbers. It looks much more like it’s designed to be an efficient offense. 

Give me Jimmy G. stats for 17 games with a strong run game and I’ll be very happy!

A physically dominant run game will do more for raising Zach’s rankings than signing Tyreek Hill. 

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On 6/21/2022 at 9:57 PM, RutgersJetFan said:

Are you saying my Subaru isn't a sports car because I will fight you.

2VrlSpTRO8uDmZyk=&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0

Did it come with the not-really-optional Hippie Granola Dispenser?

I know ours did....

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On 6/22/2022 at 12:40 PM, johnnysd said:

I take comfort in knowing so many here are such experts on QB play that they can know that Zach is dumb, can't go through progressions, is limited athletically, small, inaccurate, terrible in the pocket, does not know how to "move up" in the pocket and generally stinks.  Should be a fun 5 weeks.

Yeah it’s not like Zach Wilson sucked in college anytime he faced legit competition oh wait

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On 6/21/2022 at 4:57 PM, GreenFish said:

Yup.

First 5 games: Train Wreck. Net negative to the team

Last 7 games: Protected the football. Which is a far cry from good.

He only really looked good in 1 game last year. He played well in the Bucs game. The Jax game might be considered an ok. He had that long run and a couple other nice runs.

He didn’t have any Geno/Sanchez self destruction games last several weeks of the season.  Problem is, he didn’t look dynamic at all hence the mediocre passing numbers

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