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Thoughts on recent Jets Draft picks..


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13 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

1. Quinnen Williams?  Feeling 'pretty good'

You shouldn't have led with Quinnen, because you lost me right here.

There's absolutely nothing to like about a # 3 overall pick who ended up primarily being a run-stuffer.  3 years in and he's a complete disappointment.  Yet another high Macc pick at a safe position that didn't end up a "bust" but still ended up being a lousy pick.

And yeah, I get that there are people expecting him to "break out" now that he's surrounded by other pass rushers.  But that isn't what he was supposed to be.  He was supposed to be a pass-rushing wrecking ball (with butcher's knives) who could create a pass rush largely on his own.  He doesn't do that and likely never will.  

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16 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I believe the general consensus is the Jets just had a great draft.  Many NFL analysts say it's tough to really tell until 3 years out.  But we can start to formulate where things are likely headed after a season or 2.  So how do you feel about some of the following notable picks from the 2019-2021 drafts?  I'll start it off..

1. Quinnen Williams?  Feeling 'pretty good' when he's actually on the field, which has been diminished partly due to injuries and partly due to Saleh's usage philosophy.  His 2nd year in the same system was better than last year in a new system.  2020 PFF grade = 81.4 (~top 10%tile) dropped to a 64.4 (roughly average).  Q actually started off strong but faded late.  How much was due to his shoulder injury later in the season or injuries & ineffective play across the line?  Frankly I think Ulbrich & Saleh deserve a good chunk of the blame for taking an asset on the rise and not putting him in a position to take the next step.  But to be fair, Q deserves a lot of blame too and has not consistently risen to the level of stud DT.  50/50 if he's even on the Jets after the 2023 season.  I see him as a valuable asset to trade if his performance doesn't rise or his contract demands are too high (vs performance or vs the Jets budget for DT).

2. Mekhi Becton?  Feeling 'uncertain' at this point (duh).  Flashed elite skills rookie year, leading a survey of 50 NFL personnel (execs, coaches, players) to rank him as the #6 best OT entering last year, ranging from #2 to #12..  Then it all fell apart.  Can he stay on the field?  Can he get down to an optimal playing weight?  Can he mature?  If so, his upside is tantalizing.  But several big IFs.  Jets would be wise to sign an NFL ready swing tackle just in case.  There's also been debate on LT vs. RT.  Why risk Wilson's blind side?  RT all the way for me.

3. Denzel Mims?  Feeling 'not a fit' entering training camp.  I'm highly skeptical on the impact of last year's food poisoning and see an athlete who is not a great football player at this level.  But I do see a tradable asset who might fit a scheme that emphasizes the deep passing game.  That's where I expect this to go, possibly in exchange for LB depth.

4. Zach Wilson?  Feeling 'good'.  Ultra smart, ultra dedicated, ultra driven, ultra talented.  His analytical brain caused over-thinking in year 1, which slowed down his processing speed.  I expect him to turn this from a negative into a positive, developing a feel for the game that few have.  A fellow poster recently compared this to his rise at BYU.  Once he put it all together, he was a beast!  However, his over-thinking on short / intermediate passes, something that didn't show up at BYU is a cause for concern.   This should be automatic at this point, unless of course it's driven by a change in technique (maybe even rhythm) that by nature he is 'figuring out' (much like a change in golf swing).  IMO, the only thing outside of injuries that will prevent him from becoming a top 10 franchise QB.  

5. AVT?  Feeling 'very good'.  Started most of his rookie season and earned a slightly above average starting grade as a rookie on an offense decimated by injuries and a QB who held the ball longer than any other starter (above 3 seconds).  Context is important here.  When he was good, he looked darn good; when bad, he looked like a rookie.  Looking like an 8 year plus starter with Pro Bowl upside.  A core piece for our future. 

6. Elijah Moore?  Feeling 'very good'.  This score would be even higher if he didn't miss 6 games.  He needs to prove he's durable in year 2.  If he does, he becomes 1 of roughly 10 WRs (2021 reference) who achieve a performance level worthy of being called a #1 WR:  70+ catches, 1000+ yards, 8+ TDs.  

7. Others? 

Still feeling 'good' about Bryce Hall and believe he's too good to not rotate with DJ and Sauce.  Shows that JD is not too attached to his draft picks and is ready to upgrade if opportunities arise.  Can't wait to see him perform around better talent, and see if he has the ability to turn passes defensed into actual interceptions.

Also feeling 'very good' about Carter (rb) and 'good' about Carter (cb).  Mark me intrigued by Pinnock at Safety, Echols as a reserve CB w/ upside, and Marshall at an athletic penetrating DT.

 

Thoughts?    

 

You need a hobby .

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2 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I guess I don’t see the world as black and white.  Top 10 percentile grade in 2020 got a lot of fans excited.  He was a force.

Last year he started strong and fizzled.  Cause for concern?  Yes.  But in a new system with a lot of young players that few Jets thrived in.

I still think he’s a good player with a lot of upside.  Has he met the expectations of a top 3 pick?  Not yet, I agree with that.  Has he been a bust?  I don’t think so.  

 

Even in his best year, 2020, he really didn't demonstrate much upside.  He basically is exactly what he was drafted to be or worse.  Another Leonard Williams...maybe a little better, or maybe a little worse.  Not really anything to get excited about. 

Yet another lame Macc pick that people try to talk themselves into being excited about but the results on the field simply don't demonstrate it, and he doesn't move the needle much.

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10 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Even in his best year, 2020, he really didn't demonstrate much upside.  He basically is exactly what he was drafted to be or worse.  Another Leonard Williams...maybe a little better, or maybe a little worse.  Not really anything to get excited about. 

Yet another lame Macc pick that people try to talk themselves into being excited about but the results on the field simply don't demonstrate it, and he doesn't move the needle much.

I’m not trying to talk myself into anything.  I wrote he would likely be traded if his performance doesn’t pick up but I actually believe there is reason to believe it will.  His 2020 season was very strong.  Maybe not for you but ranked relative to his peers.

So I feel pretty good about him at this point.  Not good, not great and not horrible due to the flashes and a strong 2020 season.

We can agree that Mac sucked! 

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Quinnen-will be a solid DT for the next two years, then either will franchised and traded, franchise and kept if needed for playoff run, or just will move on.

Becton-will be a Jet for 2 more years.  Hopefully he works out.  5th year option 50/50.

Mims-trade in Training Camp.

Wilson-Mayfield/Cousins/Carr.  Hopefully good enough for playoffs.  50/50 second contract.

AVT-solid overpaid RG.  Needs to move to LG to get second contract.

Elijah Moore-will be great and entertaining.  50/50 on health for second contract.

Bryce Hall-will get us a decent comp pick. 

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I like your list man.  

You do have to love the members who have a ton of opinion without ever playing a snap.  Who want to educated you on % and never have taken a statistics course. 

It's all over the place man,  keep doing you. 

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1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I believe the general consensus is the Jets just had a great draft.  Many NFL analysts say it's tough to really tell until 3 years out.  But we can start to formulate where things are likely headed after a season or 2.  So how do you feel about some of the following notable picks from the 2019-2021 drafts?  I'll start it off..

1. Quinnen Williams?  Feeling 'pretty good' when he's actually on the field, which has been diminished partly due to injuries and partly due to Saleh's usage philosophy.  His 2nd year in the same system was better than last year in a new system.  2020 PFF grade = 81.4 (~top 10%tile) dropped to a 64.4 (roughly average).  Q actually started off strong but faded late.  How much was due to his shoulder injury later in the season or injuries & ineffective play across the line?  Frankly I think Ulbrich & Saleh deserve a good chunk of the blame for taking an asset on the rise and not putting him in a position to take the next step.  But to be fair, Q deserves a lot of blame too and has not consistently risen to the level of stud DT.  50/50 if he's even on the Jets after the 2023 season.  I see him as a valuable asset to trade if his performance doesn't rise or his contract demands are too high (vs performance or vs the Jets budget for DT).

2. Mekhi Becton?  Feeling 'uncertain' at this point (duh).  Flashed elite skills rookie year, leading a survey of 50 NFL personnel (execs, coaches, players) to rank him as the #6 best OT entering last year, ranging from #2 to #12..  Then it all fell apart.  Can he stay on the field?  Can he get down to an optimal playing weight?  Can he mature?  If so, his upside is tantalizing.  But several big IFs.  Jets would be wise to sign an NFL ready swing tackle just in case.  There's also been debate on LT vs. RT.  Why risk Wilson's blind side?  RT all the way for me.

3. Denzel Mims?  Feeling 'not a fit' entering training camp.  I'm highly skeptical on the impact of last year's food poisoning and see an athlete who is not a great football player at this level.  But I do see a tradable asset who might fit a scheme that emphasizes the deep passing game.  That's where I expect this to go, possibly in exchange for LB depth.

4. Zach Wilson?  Feeling 'good'.  Ultra smart, ultra dedicated, ultra driven, ultra talented.  His analytical brain caused over-thinking in year 1, which slowed down his processing speed.  I expect him to turn this from a negative into a positive, developing a feel for the game that few have.  A fellow poster recently compared this to his rise at BYU.  Once he put it all together, he was a beast!  However, his over-thinking on short / intermediate passes, something that didn't show up at BYU is a cause for concern.   This should be automatic at this point, unless of course it's driven by a change in technique (maybe even rhythm) that by nature he is 'figuring out' (much like a change in golf swing).  IMO, the only thing outside of injuries that will prevent him from becoming a top 10 franchise QB.  

5. AVT?  Feeling 'very good'.  Started most of his rookie season and earned a slightly above average starting grade as a rookie on an offense decimated by injuries and a QB who held the ball longer than any other starter (above 3 seconds).  Context is important here.  When he was good, he looked darn good; when bad, he looked like a rookie.  Looking like an 8 year plus starter with Pro Bowl upside.  A core piece for our future. 

6. Elijah Moore?  Feeling 'very good'.  This score would be even higher if he didn't miss 6 games.  He needs to prove he's durable in year 2.  If he does, he becomes 1 of roughly 10 WRs (2021 reference) who achieve a performance level worthy of being called a #1 WR:  70+ catches, 1000+ yards, 8+ TDs.  

7. Others? 

Still feeling 'good' about Bryce Hall and believe he's too good to not rotate with DJ and Sauce.  Shows that JD is not too attached to his draft picks and is ready to upgrade if opportunities arise.  Can't wait to see him perform around better talent, and see if he has the ability to turn passes defensed into actual interceptions.

Also feeling 'very good' about Carter (rb) and 'good' about Carter (cb).  Mark me intrigued by Pinnock at Safety, Echols as a reserve CB w/ upside, and Marshall at an athletic penetrating DT.

 

Thoughts?    

 

Q might surprise some people this year. The way the coaches have explained his injury last year and how he was always a step behind, he might be a beast. 

The Mekhi situation is maddening, period. When you think about how Carl Lawson talks and acts about his injury and rehab compared to Mekhi, it causes concern. Hope he comes back and dominates. Boomer E. (I think it was him) said he wouldn't be surprised if he was cut in camp. I don't see that, but the coaches are frustrasted.

Denzel is done. Was done when the new coaches came in. Jeff Smith will be prioritized over him.

I love Zach. But I also get where the doubters are coming from. He has to perform!

AVT = stud.

Elijah = stud.

Michael Carter = stud.

Bryce has a role. MC II has a role. Echols and Pinnock are looking up. Excited to see what Hamsah and Jamien do the next couple of years.

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53 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

So, this is DWC right?

Jeez.  I have a range of pretty good to uncertain to not a fit to a couple very goods and intrigues.  

The rest are implied as not worth talking about ..

Yeah, crazy optimist.

I rate your attempt at humor as meh

Close though, I’m his cousin OffenseWinsChampionships.  I’m slightly more stable with a third eyebrow and nipple rings.  Otherwise, we’re about the same.

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I believe the general consensus is the Jets just had a great draft.  Many NFL analysts say it's tough to really tell until 3 years out.  But we can start to formulate where things are likely headed after a season or 2.  So how do you feel about some of the following notable picks from the 2019-2021 drafts?  I'll start it off..

1. Quinnen Williams?  Feeling 'pretty good' when he's actually on the field, which has been diminished partly due to injuries and partly due to Saleh's usage philosophy.  His 2nd year in the same system was better than last year in a new system.  2020 PFF grade = 81.4 (~top 10%tile) dropped to a 64.4 (roughly average).  Q actually started off strong but faded late.  How much was due to his shoulder injury later in the season or injuries & ineffective play across the line?  Frankly I think Ulbrich & Saleh deserve a good chunk of the blame for taking an asset on the rise and not putting him in a position to take the next step.  But to be fair, Q deserves a lot of blame too and has not consistently risen to the level of stud DT.  50/50 if he's even on the Jets after the 2023 season.  I see him as a valuable asset to trade if his performance doesn't rise or his contract demands are too high (vs performance or vs the Jets budget for DT).

2. Mekhi Becton?  Feeling 'uncertain' at this point (duh).  Flashed elite skills rookie year, leading a survey of 50 NFL personnel (execs, coaches, players) to rank him as the #6 best OT entering last year, ranging from #2 to #12..  Then it all fell apart.  Can he stay on the field?  Can he get down to an optimal playing weight?  Can he mature?  If so, his upside is tantalizing.  But several big IFs.  Jets would be wise to sign an NFL ready swing tackle just in case.  There's also been debate on LT vs. RT.  Why risk Wilson's blind side?  RT all the way for me.

3. Denzel Mims?  Feeling 'not a fit' entering training camp.  I'm highly skeptical on the impact of last year's food poisoning and see an athlete who is not a great football player at this level.  But I do see a tradable asset who might fit a scheme that emphasizes the deep passing game.  That's where I expect this to go, possibly in exchange for LB depth.

4. Zach Wilson?  Feeling 'good'.  Ultra smart, ultra dedicated, ultra driven, ultra talented.  His analytical brain caused over-thinking in year 1, which slowed down his processing speed.  I expect him to turn this from a negative into a positive, developing a feel for the game that few have.  A fellow poster recently compared this to his rise at BYU.  Once he put it all together, he was a beast!  However, his over-thinking on short / intermediate passes, something that didn't show up at BYU is a cause for concern.   This should be automatic at this point, unless of course it's driven by a change in technique (maybe even rhythm) that by nature he is 'figuring out' (much like a change in golf swing).  IMO, the only thing outside of injuries that will prevent him from becoming a top 10 franchise QB.  

5. AVT?  Feeling 'very good'.  Started most of his rookie season and earned a slightly above average starting grade as a rookie on an offense decimated by injuries and a QB who held the ball longer than any other starter (above 3 seconds).  Context is important here.  When he was good, he looked darn good; when bad, he looked like a rookie.  Looking like an 8 year plus starter with Pro Bowl upside.  A core piece for our future. 

6. Elijah Moore?  Feeling 'very good'.  This score would be even higher if he didn't miss 6 games.  He needs to prove he's durable in year 2.  If he does, he becomes 1 of roughly 10 WRs (2021 reference) who achieve a performance level worthy of being called a #1 WR:  70+ catches, 1000+ yards, 8+ TDs.  

7. Others? 

Still feeling 'good' about Bryce Hall and believe he's too good to not rotate with DJ and Sauce.  Shows that JD is not too attached to his draft picks and is ready to upgrade if opportunities arise.  Can't wait to see him perform around better talent, and see if he has the ability to turn passes defensed into actual interceptions.

Also feeling 'very good' about Carter (rb) and 'good' about Carter (cb).  Mark me intrigued by Pinnock at Safety, Echols as a reserve CB w/ upside, and Marshall at an athletic penetrating DT.

 

Thoughts?    

 

 

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58 minutes ago, PorP said:

I like your list man.  

You do have to love the members who have a ton of opinion without ever playing a snap.  Who want to educated you on % and never have taken a statistics course. 

It's all over the place man,  keep doing you. 

So only former jocks should bother to evaluate other jocks, and only statisticians should post about stats.

Noted.

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50 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Jeez.  I have a range of pretty good to uncertain to not a fit to a couple very goods and intrigues.  

The rest are implied as not worth talking about ..

Yeah, crazy optimist.

I rate your attempt at humor as meh

Close though, I’m his cousin OffenseWinsChampionships.  I’m slightly more stable with a third eyebrow and nipple rings.  Otherwise, we’re about the same.

Lighten up, it was just an acknowledgement of the tl;dr nature of your post.

Not worth shedding tears over it.

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You shouldn't have led with Quinnen, because you lost me right here.

There's absolutely nothing to like about a # 3 overall pick who ended up primarily being a run-stuffer.  3 years in and he's a complete disappointment.  Yet another high Macc pick at a safe position that didn't end up a "bust" but still ended up being a lousy pick.

And yeah, I get that there are people expecting him to "break out" now that he's surrounded by other pass rushers.  But that isn't what he was supposed to be.  He was supposed to be a pass-rushing wrecking ball (with butcher's knives) who could create a pass rush largely on his own.  He doesn't do that and likely never will.  

A guy can be two things at once; an above average pro and still a disappointment.

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

 

4. Zach Wilson?  Feeling 'good'.  Ultra smart, ultra dedicated, ultra driven, ultra talented.  His analytical brain caused over-thinking in year 1, which slowed down his processing speed. 

 

Thoughts?    

 

That's a new one. He's too smart to process quickly.

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Just now, jgb said:

That's a new one. He's too smart to process quickly.

I mean do you think he’s not smart?  No football IQ? 
 

There’s actually a term for it.  Welcome to 2022.  LOL.  
 

Analysis paralysis defined as:

describes an individual or group process when overanalyzing or overthinking a situation can cause forward motion or decision-making to become "paralyzed", meaning that no solution or course of action is decided upon within a natural time frame.

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Just now, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I mean do you think he’s not smart?  No football IQ? 
 

There’s actually a term for it.  Welcome to 2022.  LOL.  
 

Analysis paralysis defined as:

describes an individual or group process when overanalyzing or overthinking a situation can cause forward motion or decision-making to become "paralyzed", meaning that no solution or course of action is decided upon within a natural time frame.

Sorry I'm too smart to understand all these words.

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59 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

I was arguing with someone on Facebook and they posted a screenshot of a tweet from DWC in order to help their argument. I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry. 

How well do you know this person on Facebook?  Just sayin'...

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