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Is Hall the Jets' top dawg so far?


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https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2022/06/21/jets-breece-hall-michael-carter-starter-backup/

The Jets’ backfield is a little bit crowded at the top now after adding Breece Hall in the second round of the draft. He joins Michael Carter, who was the Jets’ starter as a rookie last season, as another starting-caliber player battling for carries.

That competition will sort itself out in training camp and early in the season, but it seems the Jets view Hall as the better option atop the depth chart. According to Connor Hughes of The Athletic, the Jets see Carter as “the Batman to Carter’s Robin,” and while New York will use both, “hall is the lead back.”

The Jets like Carter a lot. They believe he’s a quality back. They’ve always viewed him as an ideal complement, though, in Mike LaFleur’s “running back by committee.” Hall, whom the Jets consider a home run threat, is now the Batman to Carter’s Robin. The Jets will use both, but Hall is the lead back.

That’s not terribly surprising because Hall’s speed and playmaking ability are what made him the top running back in the 2022 class. Carter had his moments as a rookie last year, averaging 4.3 yards per carry with a long rush of 55 yards, but Hall can do it all.

This will be one of the more fascinating camp battles to watch this summer.

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2 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

They don't see Hall as "Ace" to Carter's "Gary"?

Haha, read the excerpt you quoted … top notch proofreading and editorial standards by the publishers.

 

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I wonder what the split will be like during the season.  I cant imagine anyone see's over 20% more than the other back, so it doesnt really feel like a battle, unless, taking the first snap/series is all that important.  Feel like this will be a hot hand type of team.

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1 hour ago, JiFapono said:

I wonder what the split will be like during the season.  I cant imagine anyone see's over 20% more than the other back, so it doesnt really feel like a battle, unless, taking the first snap/series is all that important.  Feel like this will be a hot hand type of team.

Idk I’d look at how SF deployed Elijah Mitchell last year as a 6th round rookie, when healthy he got the bulk of the load wasn’t really committee.

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7 minutes ago, slats said:

Interesting. I don’t think they traded up to take a RB in the second round to be anything less than their clear #1 RB. While I don’t expect them to put a workload like Taylor, Harris, or Mixon on him, I do think he’ll at least double Carter’s carries this year. Something like a 200/100 split. Also expect Zach to double his rushing totals from last season, and for a few WRs and a TE or two to also get some runs in. 

I dont have a crystal ball or any inside info, I'm just kind of just using logic and what I've seen out of the system in San Fran while Lil Mikey was there.  The year they went 13-3, went to the Super Bowl, and were 2nd overall in scoring offense, they had 3 backs carrying the ball.  Coleman and Mostert both carried the ball 137 times, Matt Breida carried 123 times.  

Hall is a rookie, he's never played a down in the NFL, we can expect and want him to be something special and so can the GM and coaching staff but time will tell.  He's a rookie and there is a learning curve for all players and we have no clue how that will impact Hall.  On the other hand, Carter is a dude and balled out on a terrible team with one of the worst QB's in the NFL last year.  There is something to be said about that and I dont think you just ignore it and hand the reigns over to a rookie and hope.  I wouldnt be shocked if Carter gets the first series and majority of carries or a while and it slowly turns to favor Hall but I dont expect Hall to be a workhorse of any sorts and eat away that much at carrying percentages.  I really think it's going to be like 45% Hall, 40% Carter, 15% Coleman/others. 

As far as Zach running the ball, I sure as **** hope that's not the intention.  

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1 hour ago, JiFapono said:

 

As far as Zach running the ball, I sure as **** hope that's not the intention.  

I agree with this... hopefully designed QB runs are a minimum. If plays break down and Zach can pick up some yards and do it without taking big hits (Russel Wilson type) I am ok with him doing that. 

 

To the RB carries comments. I agree I think that Breece may end up with more carries (goal line/short yardage type carries probably push him ahead), but the hot hand seems like the approach that would make sense.

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1 minute ago, Stark said:

I agree with this... hopefully designed QB runs are a minimum. If plays break down and Zach can pick up some yards and do it without taking big hits (Russel Wilson type) I am ok with him doing that. 

I don’t mean to imply that there will be designed QB runs this year, but I do believe that he’ll be instructed to tuck & run on passing downs if there’s nothing there. He averaged 14 yards rushing a game last year. I think that number is over 20 this year, with him approaching 300 yards on the season. He has the ability, and a five yard scramble beats an incomplete. 

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Let us see what happens when the pads are on.

Carter has one year of experience within the system.

Hall was repeatedly referred to as a 3 down back but the scouts and coaches in the videos and clips I have seen.

It will be interesting going forward.  This battle will probably be better than Mims vs Wilson.

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19 minutes ago, Stark said:

To the RB carries comments. I agree I think that Breece may end up with more carries (goal line type carries probably push him ahead), but the hot hand seems like the approach that would make sense.

Yeah, those 7 extra goal line carries  will put him over the top! 😭

Alicia Silverstone Cher Horowitz GIF by Clueless

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1 hour ago, Lupz27 said:

Idk I’d look at how SF deployed Elijah Mitchell last year as a 6th round rookie, when healthy he got the bulk of the load wasn’t really committee.

It wasn't a committee because Mostert and Wilson got hurt early in the year and Sermon was so bad they didn't even want him in a niners uniform on gameday.  

Most teams realize the damage of a heavy workload on a RB. If you don't have a good backup then you ride the #1, but when you have a guy like Carter there is no reason to run Hall into the ground. I expect a 60/40, MAYBE 70/30 type split favoring Hall.  

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I fully expect Hall to be the Jets clear-cut #1 back, and get upwards of 60% or more of the carries/catches from that position by seasons end.

I expect Carter to be the 2nd option, and get the vast bulk of the rest of the carries/catches in 2022. 

A 60/40 mix or thereabouts isn't unusual in the modern NFL's "RB by Committee" mindset for the position.

Hopefully, with a reduced workload, and an improved O-line and QB play, Carter can be especially explosive when he gets his carries and catches in the flats, while avoiding a repeat of his injury plagues rookie campaign.

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I expect Hall to be the lead back but carries are going to be split.

The most run heavy teams without a running QB are really balanced at roughly 50% pass vs rush (ie Titans, 49ers, Colts). I expect us to be in that group. 61 plays on average a game: 30 passing and 31 rushing.

On average:
- Hall: 16 rush attempts (that’s a high workload in today’s NFL - not in the Taylor/Harris/Henry range but the the level right below)

- Carter/Coleman: 10 rush attempts (mostly Carter)

- Zach: 3 scrambles etc

- WR/TE/FB: 2 designed reverses etc

Hoping for a top 5 rushing attack.


Edit: I need to reconcile my expectation for our rushing and passing game. I got us playing like a power house. 😂

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1 hour ago, Lupz27 said:

Idk I’d look at how SF deployed Elijah Mitchell last year as a 6th round rookie, when healthy he got the bulk of the load wasn’t really committee.

Sure but, Lil Mikey wasnt in San Fran last year.  He was here.  Even so, I'm not sure San Fran is a great comparison as I dont think the plan was to make Mitchell a workhorse.  They drafted Trey Sermon 88th overall last year and took Mitchell 100+ picks later.  Both Mostert and Sermon were injured at different points last year so they were kind of forced to stick with Mitchell but it's also bit of an example of sticking with the hot hand/what's working.  I think the better example was their SB season that I referenced earlier where they were very heavy RBC and the carries were almost even.

 

 

 

 

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There are lots of examples of two featured backs working well together. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara come immediately to mind. They might not be the best example.

If the O line plays well, then these guys will both be chewing up yards. And if they are chewing up yards, the PA game will be working. And if Zach can make the easy reads, the run game will open up even more. LaFleur likes to get creative. Excited/Interested to see how he play calls with a decent lead (might be 10 or 11 games before we get there). I think he'll be creative. Multiple running backs will get plenty of touches.

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Breece hall is in a different stratosphere then any other back on our roster.  It will play out like the colts and jonathan taylor his rookie year.  The split btwn Hall and Carter will be fairly even the 1st half of the season but toward the end of the year and going into next year, Hall will be the lead rb.  Carter will play the naheem hines role.

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Breece Hall has the potential to be a truly special running back in the NFL. If he was coming out of college 20 years ago, he'd be a top 5 draft pick.

Carter may not have as high a ceiling, but he has the work ethic. And let's not forget he was the #2 back at UNC. 

This all being said, one or both of these guys will be injured and miss time during the course of a 17 game season. They will both have plenty of opportunities to shine. 

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3 hours ago, slats said:

Interesting. I don’t think they traded up to take a RB in the second round to be anything less than their clear #1 RB. While I don’t expect them to put a workload like Taylor, Harris, or Mixon on him, I do think he’ll at least double Carter’s carries this year. Something like a 200/100 split. Also expect Zach to double his rushing totals from last season, and for a few WRs and a TE or two to also get some runs in. 

That's my impression too. I think he's on a whole different tier than Carter and their aggressive trade up to get him in the 2nd indicates they think that too.

They're gonna have a committee but I think Carter will be closer to the 3rd back in carries than to Hall.

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it's like apples and oranges.  hall is a big back, 6-1, 220.  carter is 5-8 and 200.  they're going to be complementary players each capable of doing some things the other can't.  carter showed he can be very good coming out of the back field and running the ball.  hall can do that as well.  i think the thing hall will need to learn most is how to pass block.  the jets finally have a really good rb duo. 

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3 hours ago, GKnight83 said:

Let us see what happens when the pads are on.

Carter has one year of experience within the system.

Hall was repeatedly referred to as a 3 down back but the scouts and coaches in the videos and clips I have seen.

It will be interesting going forward.  This battle will probably be better than Mims vs Wilson.

I'm with this whole post.. except maybe the mims/  Wilson part.  The other battle i'm excited to see play out is Conklin / CJ.

I think there is truth to draft position opinion which makes this interesting though.  If this question was E Moore vs Garrett,  I doubt many would be on the Garrett WR1 bandwagon without anything resembling a real practice. 

So what makes this convo different for Hall / MC? 

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I am much higher on Carter than many here. I think they are 1A and 1B. They will try and keep both fresh and healthy. Most wanted us to skip RB in the draft and now people are advocating Carter get like 30% of the snaps.

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42 minutes ago, PorP said:

I'm with this whole post.. except maybe the mims/  Wilson part.  The other battle i'm excited to see play out is Conklin / CJ.

I think there is truth to draft position opinion which makes this interesting though.  If this question was E Moore vs Garrett,  I doubt many would be on the Garrett WR1 bandwagon without anything resembling a real practice. 

So what makes this convo different for Hall / MC? 

Breece Hall wasn’t just the #1 RB in this year’s class, he’s a special prospect. His RAS ranked #7 out of 1624 RB from 1987 to 2022. And he has the college production to go with those numbers. I like MC1, too, but he’s the #2 RB now. They’re gonna ride Hall. 
 
As for Garrett and Moore, I’d say they’re much more close as far as prospects go. There was talk that if Elijah Moore was in the 2021 draft he could’ve been the first WR off the board. 

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5 minutes ago, slats said:

Breece Hall wasn’t just the #1 RB in this year’s class, he’s a special prospect. His RAS ranked #7 out of 1624 RB from 1987 to 2022. And he has the college production to go with those numbers. I like MC1, too, but he’s the #2 RB now. They’re gonna ride Hall. 
 
As for Garrett and Moore, I’d say they’re much more close as far as prospects go. There was talk that if Elijah Moore was in the 2021 draft he could’ve been the first WR off the board. 

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You don't use the 36th overall on a running back if you don't plan on fully exploiting his rookie contract. The reason people still go high on RB is because you get a playmaker for four years on the cheap but probably little beyond that because it's unlikely you plan on paying the guy. There's no easing period with this stuff. Hall will be #1. 

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26 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I am much higher on Carter than many here. I think they are 1A and 1B. They will try and keep both fresh and healthy. Most wanted us to skip RB in the draft and now people are advocating Carter get like 30% of the snaps.

I am super high on Michael Carter too.  But Breece hall is a Jonathan taylor, a derrick henry, a dalvin cook etc.  These types of backs dont split carries evenly.

Unless you are going to tell me that if Michael cart was on the Colts hed be a 1b to jonathan taylor.

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9 minutes ago, slats said:

Breece Hall wasn’t just the #1 RB in this year’s class, he’s a special prospect. His RAS ranked #7 out of 1624 RB from 1987 to 2022. And he has the college production to go with those numbers. I like MC1, too, but he’s the #2 RB now. They’re gonna ride Hall. 
 
As for Garrett and Moore, I’d say they’re much more close as far as prospects go. There was talk that if Elijah Moore was in the 2021 draft he could’ve been the first WR off the board. 

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So that's really good input and may be the foundation for many of you. 

I was including myself in that question too though and I didn't even know the RAS.

I can't figure out if I think RB's are more nfl ready,  my football days were long ago when running was still smash mouth so maybe I have a natural prejudice for hall's size... not sure

Either way when asked about Hall I would concede he could be #1, asked about Garrett i'd be like no way #2 or #3

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4 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

I am super high on Michael Carter too.  But Breece hall is a Jonathan taylor, a derrick henry, a dalvin cook etc.  These types of backs dont split carries evenly.

Unless you are going to tell me that if Michael cart was on the Colts hed be a 1b to jonathan taylor.

Hope you're right man,  I'd be giddy if he ends up anything like JT!

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29 minutes ago, slats said:

Breece Hall wasn’t just the #1 RB in this year’s class, he’s a special prospect. His RAS ranked #7 out of 1624 RB from 1987 to 2022. And he has the college production to go with those numbers. I like MC1, too, but he’s the #2 RB now. They’re gonna ride Hall. 
 
As for Garrett and Moore, I’d say they’re much more close as far as prospects go. There was talk that if Elijah Moore was in the 2021 draft he could’ve been the first WR off the board. 

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Good post @slats.   Here's some more info on Carter from his Pro Day (there was no combine last year).  Carter seems to be a perfect compliment to Hall as the feature back.  A great formula to keep defenses off balance.  

"Due to his low weight, scouts would have liked to have seen Carter perform better in the 40-yard dash and 10-yard split. However, he made up for his "Good" speed grade with "Elite" marks in the short shuttle and three-cone drill. Carter's 3.98s short shuttle is the 19th-fastest time among running backs since 1999, while his 6.87s three-cone would have been the fastest among all rushers at last year's combine by a considerable margin of .08 seconds."

In simple terms, they are elite at different things.

image.png.99d5b2fbb2d3cdc4f10e7b1b1dce8210.png

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