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If You Think Jets Should Win 7-8 Games


McNeil
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53 minutes ago, McNeil said:

Then it's possible they add another win or two and are in as a Wild Card. From there anything's possible.

The Jets are youthful with a lot of new faces. But as soon as they work out the kinks - this team should keep it close in to the 4th quarter against anybody. From there, again, anything is possible.

Of course it's possible it takes too long to gel, and the Jets end up with 6ish wins. But every game this season should be relatively close. If not then Houston we have a problem with this regime. Not saying clean house, but then 2023 is make or break.

So your downside scenario is still better than the Vegas O/U? 

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

So your downside scenario is still better than the Vegas O/U? 

Vegas put up a bad number and the Sharps understood that... that is why the line went all the way to -160 for the over. That's not your weekend bettor that's heavy heavy money moving that line. Sharp betters favor unders for season total because their is an edge there.

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33 minutes ago, sciond said:

5-6, maybe 7 if they get lucky is where I am thinking. However I think the  build is tracking well so far.

Your win prediction isn’t that of a rebuild tracking well. It’s just another sh***y year.

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1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

If the ball bounces our way in a game or 2, yes, we can compete for a WC.

I share your optimism of the direction is going and that we shouldn’t expect this season to be amazing.  2 seasons is the clock for that.  But some of the new players are able to break out as rookies - then lookout.  

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I’m dialing back expectations

living and dying with this franchise is hazardous to one’s health 

have to be realistic about how so much hinges on things slowing down for Zach Wilson in the pocket 

There’s a chance, but I don’t see it happening

If they can legit compete in games in spite of Wilson, that’s a good sign though 

they can deal him to another sucker team in the offseason like CAR and roll the dice again in the ‘23 draft

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6 hours ago, Skeptable said:

Vegas put up a bad number and the Sharps understood that... that is why the line went all the way to -160 for the over. That's not your weekend bettor that's heavy heavy money moving that line. Sharp betters favor unders for season total because their is an edge there.

Win total O/Us are tourist bets, sucker bets (“for fun” or “lark” bets if you want to be kind). The built-in vig is massive, information is poor, and the payout window is many, many months away — there isn’t much edge to be gained by a sophisticated gambler on a bet like this in early summer and his money sits there not doing work for many months. Pros cycle that money every week, capitalizing on their information edge and going contrarian against lines that reflect an emotional over-reaction to short term trends. This is all volume action — Joe from Parsippany plunking down a couple hundred on “this is gonna be the year!”

Putting aside that “sharps” generally avoid these kind of futures bets like the plague — the exception being if they have an inside line on a team at the edge of making a blockbuster QB trade — the far more likely reason for the line creeping up is because of Jets fans pouring in money, drawn in by the promise of the off season and juiced by the best post-draft coverage the team has gotten in 10+ years. Look at this board — people are downright offended that the O/U is “so low” and want to “defend their team’s honor” by “proving Vegas wrong.” Vegas is pretty darn good at this psychology stuff.

You are right about there being a bias for the over for the reasons above — Joe Schmo is much more likely to bet the over on “his” team than the under on teams he hates. I did an analysis on this board a few years ago of the win total O/Us and if you add them all up, they account for more wins than the NFL will see in a year (32 times 17 now, was 32 times 16 then). It’s even more overweighted if you consider ties. This is an additional “hidden vig” on the over. This is not a conspiracy. Remember, Vegas uses lines to balance the action, not to predict the future. After the initial line is set by a handicapper, it is at the mercy of the masses and reflects the herd bias to bet the over. If sharps were inclined to tie up their money for several months on future bets, this overweighting would quickly dissolve. Its existence shows definitively that they are not.

To be fair, I have not and don’t plan to do the same analysis this year but I’d bet (ha!) it’s the same. Fundamental human psychology just doesn’t change that quickly. If you really want to play it smart, you’d avoid these bets entirely but failing that, you’d bet the under on teams who would see less wins should the Jets overachieve and take the built-in edge under bets enjoy.

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2 minutes ago, 68JET11 said:

The only way this team has more than 7-8 wins is if the defense shows up every game. If there are defensive games like last year, than I have no doubt we will be looking at 5-7 wins.

My expectation (which I know is basically worth nothing) is right in that 5-7 range and depending on how that happens, might still be considered a positive season.

This is a very young team with question marks all over the place. Not going to go into all that but for me, even if the win total is low but they are in every game with realistic chances to win some they eventually lose, I could see that as a positive.

I am with 68Jet that defensive efforts like we saw last year simply can't occur - not even once for this team in this type of growth.

Sure 9 -10 or more wins would be great, but realistically, 5-7 is where I would see it as well.

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There is enough talent to win in spite of what we get from Zach and the CS (jury is out on them) and if the stars align & both of them are the goods, yes I can see this team competing for the WC.

This roster is pretty good and should be the reason this team doubles its win total from last year. Anything from the CS and Zach are just icing on the cake.

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12 hours ago, McNeil said:

Then it's possible they add another win or two and are in as a Wild Card. From there anything's possible.

The Jets are youthful with a lot of new faces. But as soon as they work out the kinks - this team should keep it close in to the 4th quarter against anybody. From there, again, anything is possible.

Of course it's possible it takes too long to gel, and the Jets end up with 6ish wins. But every game this season should be relatively close. If not then Houston we have a problem with this regime. Not saying clean house, but then 2023 is make or break.

I’m thinking/hoping 7/8 wins but, as been mentioned, that’s already a few wins better than Vegas is seeing. So the 7/8 number is already plenty optimistic. If they wanna do better than that, I’m well prepared to be pleasantly surprised. 
 
They were terrible out of the gate last year. Absolutely horrible. Most of the reasons can be explained away by inexperience everywhere, a rookie head coach implementing new systems on both sides of the ball with a rookie QB in place. They made some mistakes last year and, frankly, I think they were a little too cocky. Did they learn from last season? That’s what matters. 
 
There’s certainly a best case scenario where they do better than that, but that’s gonna require a number of stars aligning, with a few of those being rookies once again. I want to see the wins, but I hope and expect to see improvement and a real foundation being set. 

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In my opinion, there are a total of 12 Winnable games on the Jets Schedule in 2022.

Winnable =/= We WILL win.

Winnable are games that the Jets, as constructed today, could win vs. those teams as constructed today.

Let be clear, I do not think we're winning all 12, period, end stop.

But I think a reasonable expectation for wins is 7.  7 wins out of 12 winnable games.  A 7-10 finish.

All of this, of course, rests primarily on how much of a step Zach Wilson takes in 2022 and secondarily how much improvement/durability we see on Defense and the rushing offense.

If Zach starts to play like a Franchise QB in the making, more than 7 wins is 100% reasonable.  

If he doesn't, or worse, plays like 2021 again, far less than 7 is likely.

The NFL is a league designed around parity, and most of the teams highlighted as winnable below truly aren't that much more talented or better than us overall.  Sorry, the Browns, Steelers, Dolphins and Patriots don't scare me, even if they all beat us, they're all middle-pack teams right now, for example.  The Jets SHOULD also be a middle-pack team in 2022.  If Zach improves and if the Defense isn't historically bad.

Broncos are maybe a tough one, if everything works out perfectly for them especially at QB.  Bears are poop.  Vikings regularly go .500 and lose against "worse" teams.  Lions may be on the rise like us, but again, winnable.    Jags same.  Seahawks don't impress me (although playing there does make that 100% harder, admittedly). 

Again, Miami and the Pats, both in-division (so anything can happen) and they're both mid-pack teams with alot to prove themselves.

The Bills x2, Bengals, Ravens and Packers @ Packers seem unwinnable to win.  And frankly, maybe I'm giving Baltimore too much credit.  Feel free to shift Balt to winnable and Denver out, if you like.

Ultimately, the point here is that while over-the-top-we're-winning-12-book-it optimism might be a little bit on the cray cray side, there is every reason to both expect and hope that the Jets finally rejoin the middle of the pack of the NFL in 2022.  A 7-8-9 win season is absolutely reasonable to hope for and root for, even as a cynic.  

But it all rests on Zach Wilson.  If he is poop, throw all this out the window, because we're back to the 4-5 or worse win area in that case.

But I don't think he'll be poop.  Or, for once, I'm tying to be an optimist.  Who knows.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
09/11    Sunday    Baltimore Ravens    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
09/18    Sunday    at Cleveland Browns    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
09/25    Sunday    Cincinnati Bengals    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
10/02    Sunday    at Pittsburgh Steelers    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
10/9    Sunday    Miami Dolphins    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
10/16    Sunday    at Green Bay Packers    1:00 PM EDT    FOX    
10/23    Sunday    at Denver Broncos    4:05 PM EDT    CBS    
10/30    Sunday    New England Patriots    1:00 PM EDT    CBS 
   
11/06    Sunday    Buffalo Bills    1:00 PM EST    CBS    
11/13    BYE WEEK
11/20    Sunday    at New England Patriots    1:00 PM EST    CBS    
11/27    Sunday    Chicago Bears    1:00 PM EST    FOX    
12/04    Sunday    at Minnesota Vikings    1:00 PM EST    CBS
    
12/11    Sunday    at Buffalo Bills    1:00 PM EST    CBS    
12/18    Sunday    Detroit Lions    1:00 PM EST    FOX    
12/22    Thursday    Jacksonville Jaguars    8:15 PM EST    Amazon Prime Video    
01/01    Sunday    at Seattle Seahawks    4:05 PM EST    FOX    
TBD    TBD    at Miami Dolphins    TBD    TBD
    

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15 minutes ago, Claymation said:

There is enough talent to win in spite of what we get from Zach and the CS (jury is out on them) and if the stars align & both of them are the goods, yes I can see this team competing for the WC.

This roster is pretty good and should be the reason this team doubles its win total from last year. Anything from the CS and Zach are just icing on the cake.

If the "talent" is as good as we hope it is.  There will be enough talent if

  1. We stay healthy
  2. The 2nd and 3rd year players progress as we hope, and
  3.  if at least some of the rookies make an impact right away. 

Two out of three of these and we are a 7-8 win team IMO  All three and who knows but it all rests on how well and how fast the young talent develops.

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14 minutes ago, Warfish said:

In my opinion, there are a total of 12 Winnable games on the Jets Schedule in 2022.

Winnable =/= We WILL win.

Winnable are games that the Jets, as constructed today, could win vs. those teams as constructed today.

Let be clear, I do not think we're winning all 12, period, end stop.

But I think a reasonable expectation for wins is 7.  7 wins out of 12 winnable games.  A 7-10 finish.

All of this, of course, rests primarily on how much of a step Zach Wilson takes in 2022 and secondarily how much improvement/durability we see on Defense and the rushing offense.

If Zach starts to play like a Franchise QB in the making, more than 7 wins is 100% reasonable.  

If he doesn't, or worse, plays like 2021 again, far less than 7 is likely.

The NFL is a league designed around parity, and most of the teams highlighted as winnable below truly aren't that much more talented or better than us overall.  Sorry, the Browns, Steelers, Dolphins and Patriots don't scare me, even if they all beat us, they're all middle-pack teams right now, for example.  The Jets SHOULD also be a middle-pack team in 2022.  If Zach improves and if the Defense isn't historically bad.

Broncos are maybe a tough one, if everything works out perfectly for them especially at QB.  Bears are poop.  Vikings regularly go .500 and lose against "worse" teams.  Lions may be on the rise like us, but again, winnable.    Jags same.  Seahawks don't impress me (although playing there does make that 100% harder, admittedly). 

Again, Miami and the Pats, both in-division (so anything can happen) and they're both mid-pack teams with alot to prove themselves.

The Bills x2, Bengals, Ravens and Packers @ Packers seem unwinnable to win.  And frankly, maybe I'm giving Baltimore too much credit.  Feel free to shift Balt to winnable and Denver out, if you like.

Ultimately, the point here is that while over-the-top-we're-winning-12-book-it optimism might be a little bit on the cray cray side, there is every reason to both expect and hope that the Jets finally rejoin the middle of the pack of the NFL in 2022.  A 7-8-9 win season is absolutely reasonable to hope for and root for, even as a cynic.  

But it all rests on Zach Wilson.  If he is poop, throw all this out the window, because we're back to the 4-5 or worse win area in that case.

But I don't think he'll be poop.  Or, for once, I'm tying to be an optimist.  Who knows.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
09/11    Sunday    Baltimore Ravens    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
09/18    Sunday    at Cleveland Browns    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
09/25    Sunday    Cincinnati Bengals    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
10/02    Sunday    at Pittsburgh Steelers    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
10/9    Sunday    Miami Dolphins    1:00 PM EDT    CBS    
10/16    Sunday    at Green Bay Packers    1:00 PM EDT    FOX    
10/23    Sunday    at Denver Broncos    4:05 PM EDT    CBS    
10/30    Sunday    New England Patriots    1:00 PM EDT    CBS 
   
11/06    Sunday    Buffalo Bills    1:00 PM EST    CBS    
11/13    BYE WEEK
11/20    Sunday    at New England Patriots    1:00 PM EST    CBS    
11/27    Sunday    Chicago Bears    1:00 PM EST    FOX    
12/04    Sunday    at Minnesota Vikings    1:00 PM EST    CBS
    
12/11    Sunday    at Buffalo Bills    1:00 PM EST    CBS    
12/18    Sunday    Detroit Lions    1:00 PM EST    FOX    
12/22    Thursday    Jacksonville Jaguars    8:15 PM EST    Amazon Prime Video    
01/01    Sunday    at Seattle Seahawks    4:05 PM EST    FOX    
TBD    TBD    at Miami Dolphins    TBD    TBD
    

The Jets have not scored a point in Denver in like a decade 

Even with jacoby brisset starting the browns are better than the Jets at nearly every possible position. The myles Garrett vs Mekhi Becton matchup is especially scary, Garrett had 2.5 sacks against him 2 years ago 

Playing at Pittsburgh has also been a nightmare for the franchise 

The dolphins don't scare you? Waddle and hill are two top ten wr and Tua who everyone around here makes fun of, completes almost 70 percent of his passes 

The patriots own the Jets and without getting into the weeds the Jets have not won a division game in 3 years 

The Jets also have 59 losses in the last 5 years most in the league (tied with the giants) 

The "who's their best player" thread proves they have no game changers at all, no star power to speak of. Quinnen Williams is in fact their best player. And that's kind of a sad statement 

The most worrying position to me is place kicker. I don't know how a run heavy team is supposed to win games without a reliable kicker 

The 5.5 over under is based on the Jets crap roster, the historically bad defense (terrible run defense) their actual schedule and the difficulty of the afc. 

Saying they should win 8 or 10 or 12 is just dart throwing 

 

 

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7 wins.

I said this in an earlier thread....Zack will be starting over with LeFluer's offense. Football 101 stuff. Zack failed the class last semester and has to take it over again. LeFluer basically said the same thing...they overwhelmed Zack, and Zack struggled with the basic stuff. Can't move on to 201 until he passes 101. Our beefed up Oline, TEs, RBs, and a new WR will certainly help. But Zack needs to show he can handle the basic stuff, over and over again. 50 plays a game.

LeFluer will try and control the game on the ground. Play good D. If successful, Zack will have perhaps a small lead going into the 4th qtr. Keep it on the ground stuff.

I think our offense will look more like the Titans than the Chiefs. Ball control. NY Jets circa '09/'10.

Whatever it takes.

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9 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

Your win prediction isn’t that of a rebuild tracking well. It’s just another sh***y year.

No, because we will be more competitive. Additionally did you notice the other teams did not sleep all off-season? Perspective is everything.

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7 hours ago, jgb said:

Win total O/Us are tourist bets, sucker bets (“for fun” or “lark” bets if you want to be kind). The built-in vig is massive, information is poor, and the payout window is many, many months away — there isn’t much edge to be gained by a sophisticated gambler on a bet like this in early summer and his money sits there not doing work for many months. Pros cycle that money every week, capitalizing on their information edge and going contrarian against lines that reflect an emotional over-reaction to short term trends. This is all volume action — Joe from Parsippany plunking down a couple hundred on “this is gonna be the year!”

Putting aside that “sharps” generally avoid these kind of futures bets like the plague — the exception being if they have an inside line on a team at the edge of making a blockbuster QB trade — the far more likely reason for the line creeping up is because of Jets fans pouring in money, drawn in by the promise of the off season and juiced by the best post-draft coverage the team has gotten in 10+ years. Look at this board — people are downright offended that the O/U is “so low” and want to “defend their team’s honor” by “proving Vegas wrong.” Vegas is pretty darn good at this psychology stuff.

You are right about there being a bias for the over for the reasons above — Joe Schmo is much more likely to bet the over on “his” team than the under on teams he hates. I did an analysis on this board a few years ago of the win total O/Us and if you add them all up, they account for more wins than the NFL will see in a year (32 times 17 now, was 32 times 16 then). It’s even more overweighted if you consider ties. This is an additional “hidden vig” on the over. This is not a conspiracy. Remember, Vegas uses lines to balance the action, not to predict the future. After the initial line is set by a handicapper, it is at the mercy of the masses and reflects the herd bias to bet the over. If sharps were inclined to tie up their money for several months on future bets, this overweighting would quickly dissolve. Its existence shows definitively that they are not.

To be fair, I have not and don’t plan to do the same analysis this year but I’d bet (ha!) it’s the same. Fundamental human psychology just doesn’t change that quickly. If you really want to play it smart, you’d avoid these bets entirely but failing that, you’d bet the under on teams who would see less wins should the Jets overachieve and take the built-in edge under bets enjoy.

Just because One better doesn't find an edge doesn't mean all sharps don't bet O/U... There are a few bigtime gamblers that I follow that make huge money on O/U.... and are not sucker bets... because these numbers can be exploited... I am sorry but Joe Blow is not moving the vig up to -160 no matter how much they bet.

 

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18 minutes ago, Skeptable said:

Just because One better doesn't find an edge doesn't mean all sharps don't bet O/U... There are a few bigtime gamblers that I follow that make huge money on O/U.... and are not sucker bets... because these numbers can be exploited... I am sorry but Joe Blow is not moving the vig up to -160 no matter how much they bet.

 

It’s a good discussion. Fair to say we disagree, but that’s what makes the world go round. And no Joe Schmo doesn’t move the line but thousands of them can. If you are confident in your read you should bet it and bet it hard, especially if you think the line will keep moving. I genuinely wish you luck because it would mean the Jets are doing well and I like to see Jets fans profit from that emotionally and financially.

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7 minutes ago, jgb said:

It’s a good discussion. Fair to say we disagree, but that’s what makes the world go round. And no Joe Schmo doesn’t move the line but thousands of them can. If you are confident in your read you should bet it and bet it hard, especially if you think the line will keep moving. I genuinely wish you luck because it would mean the Jets are doing well and I like to see Jets fans profit from that emotionally and financially.

The way to make money with over under bets is to bet the under on the Jets 

Done correctly, Sports betting is not comfortable. It's very easy to make a bet on something that you want to have happen 

Bet with the house, it's unpopular but it is smart. Betting with your heart is a losing strategy over time 

 

The emotional hedge (patent pending). Worst case you bought the winning season 

 

 

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

The way to make money with over under bets is to bet the under on the Jets 

Done correctly, Sports betting is not comfortable. It's very easy to make a bet on something that you want to have happen 

Bet with the house, it's unpopular but it is smart 

 

Weekly bets IMHO are the better play both from a time value of money perspective and there can be quite big variance in line swings as the public overreacts to news or short term trends.

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

The way to make money with over under bets is to bet the under on the Jets 

Done correctly, Sports betting is not comfortable. It's very easy to make a bet on something that you want to have happen 

Bet with the house, it's unpopular but it is smart. Betting with your heart is a losing strategy over time 

 

The emotional hedge (patent pending). Worst case you bought the winning season 

 

 

Huge fan of the emotional hedge. But the only futures bet I’m interested in this year is Mitch Trubisky for CBPOTY. If I’m tying up my money for months I want the potential for a better return than a 50/50 bet. But currently at only +800, not rich enough for me yet. A couple good reports about Pickett out of camp (they will come, they always do) or a decent pre-season showing, should move that in my favor. 

 

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46 minutes ago, jgb said:

Huge fan of the emotional hedge. But the only futures bet I’m interested in this year is Mitch Trubisky for CBPOTY. If I’m tying up my money for 9 months I want the potential for a better return than a 50/50 bet. But currently at only +800, not rich enough for me yet. A couple good reports about Pickett out of camp (they will come, they always do) or a decent pre-season showing, should move that in my favor. 

 

I'm not going to say that Kenny Pickett is amazing or anything but he's playing in the stadium he played college in... It should be an easier transition than most. 

Full disclosure I placed under bets on the Jets the last two seasons and was treated by a post new years bonus. 

This year I have not bet yet because the 5.5 does honestly seem tight. I'd rather it gets to 6. If another team loses their fqb to injuries they can win some of these "unwinnable" games 

But you're basically hoping for good Jets luck in that scenario and luck favors the prepared. The jets are still a super young team with new guys all over the roster they are not that prepared for some of these road trips 

You said it best these are low information bets and there are in fact more wins predicted than are possible over all 32 teams. Sharps want the most information possible. 

Also agree if you're going to bet on the Jets for Pete's sake do it Sunday morning getting the most points possible. Look at the game day in actives. Go in facing forward.

That's not to say they won't be better. This Jets team might cover every week and still lose over 10 games. Betting the Jets as home dogs week 1 is way different than these season long over unders. Maybe Lamar holds out etc 

 

 

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15 hours ago, McNeil said:

Then it's possible they add another win or two and are in as a Wild Card. From there anything's possible.

The Jets are youthful with a lot of new faces. But as soon as they work out the kinks - this team should keep it close in to the 4th quarter against anybody. From there, again, anything is possible.

Of course it's possible it takes too long to gel, and the Jets end up with 6ish wins. But every game this season should be relatively close. If not then Houston we have a problem with this regime. Not saying clean house, but then 2023 is make or break.

We all know the Jets talent has increased and the amount of wins as everyone is saying is on Zack with his potential improvement. But, the coaching for all areas starting with HC/OC/DC will be a huge factor in determining as we have seen over decades of even the basic aspect of when in games should we lean more on the run game or passing game. If our ground game can kill teams use it till they stop it. If the passing game can give us much higher point totals, and that is needed because our D gives up a lot of points then use it more often then running. Of course, the other coaching part for helping a D that gives up a lot of points is running the ball more when it is effective to keep the D fresh and off the field, while the other teams O then gets limited opportunities to cause damage.

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8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Which has no relevance to 2022.  

I don't agree.  With Watson, Browns are a contender.  Without him, they're a slightly above average team with a below average QB.

Which has no relevance to 2022.

WR's are great.  QB is a dinky dunky JAG.  Running game doesn't exist.

Owned, past tense.  With Tom Brady.

At risk or repeating myself:  Has no relevance to 2022.

Which has no relevance to 2022.

Good thing I didn't say that.  I said 7.

Honestly old friend, I think you've simply lost any ability to see positives or experience positivity or optimism when it comes to this franchise.

Understandable.  But sad.  Honestly.

Just look at your post, it's 99% "But whaaa, we've sucked for YEEEEEEEARS, REEEEEE" verbal self-immolation.

And you inflate generally average teams (Phins, Pats, I'd add Browns) into unbeatable super-studs.

I'm sorry old friend, I love you, you know that, but you're the last voice I'd be interested in hearing if the topic is an optimistic look-forward at potential.

But by all means, if you want to share your own W/L projection (I'd wager something like 2-3 wins, amirite?  Good for #2 overall, because you'd never predict something optimistic like the #1 overall pick, lol) please do so.  

I'm not going to go point by point as I'm on a phone and when I was born these things had rotary dials 

But to answer the last question 1st I see like 5-6 wins barring a huge year from Zach. It really is a direct coorelation between his completion percent and win total. I see like 59-60 from ZW which is both a great improvement and not enough to move the dial 

To your broader point what happens in past years does in fact have relevance. The fact that the pats have run a successful program for two decades informs the patriots of 2022. Even without TB12 that team blew the Jets out in 2021

It's not like science but these guys getting on a plane, flying to Denver where the air is thinner and playing an NFL game can be informed by the past head to head record. Seattle for example is a 3000 mile road trip to the leagues 2nd loudest stadium 

The past loudness informs the future loudness etc. It's not perfect agreed but it's the only data we have. It's not a fluke they've never won in Philly. It's history. It does not repeat but sometimes it rhymes 

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2 hours ago, bitonti said:

The way to make money with over under bets is to bet the under on the Jets 

Done correctly, Sports betting is not comfortable. It's very easy to make a bet on something that you want to have happen 

Bet with the house, it's unpopular but it is smart. Betting with your heart is a losing strategy over time 

 

The emotional hedge (patent pending). Worst case you bought the winning season 

 

 

First thing you learn when betting with professionals is that the house actually knows nothing. This is why there are such things as professional betters that win at 60%+. The reason why the house makes money is there is more stupid money than smart money... So when a bad line is given... such as O/U 6 for Jets season total or SD O/U at 6 a few years back is that the number moves quick early is sharp betters getting the bad line.

Most retail betters wait till august to bet the O/U and by then the number is stale.

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7 hours ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

If it's possible to win a few more games to make the wild card, they can win two more than that and win the division.

Im thinking we can win two more in the playoffs and make it to the AFC Championship game. If we can do that and just win two more, super bowl champs. 

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54 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Im thinking we can two more in the playoffs and make it to the AFC Championship game. If we can do that and just win two more, super bowl champs. 

After we win the Super Bowl in 2023, I'm thinking that we could win three in a row. If we can do three in a row, why not five? Five is half way to ten, so we might as well make it an even ten!

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3 hours ago, Fantasy Island said:

Oh it will bounce, off players and the ground......

That one was definitely Eli Manning-esque. Let's hope he doesn't repeat it - unlike Manning, who was doing those kinds of jaw droppers for about four seasons until it dawned on him that they were bad ideas.

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