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Vegas Still Has Us at 5.5 wins. Boiled down


McNeil
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that's based on Zach and the coaching staff IMO. I think both have enough pieces to work with to do some damage this season.

But for all the positivity surrounding the Jets right now - I have this nagging concern about our coaching staff. Their emphasis on culture ... I don't know. It's just - is Saleh and his CS ruthless enough to get the job done? Are they wedded to their systems? Or are they ruthless enough? Ruthless enough to change each game plan as necessary, going against what's familiar and thus comfortable?

We'll find out soon enough. If the Jets don't come out of the gate with a competent, mistake-free, spirited performance Week 1 - no bueno.

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Saleh is kind of a clown but I think he is showing he can learn.  He’s going lighter in practice and I think it’s a common mistake for unproven HCs to come in and “set a tone “ and a bunch of guys get hurt or have no legs on game day. 


LaFluer is promising, creative but also still learning. Kind of shocking when he spoke about an off season autopsy where they realized they have Zach a too large play book. Yikes. I thought they was obvious very early. 

culture matters. Players police the locker room and every new GM or HC a always mentions changing the culture. The jets have a miserable culture. 
 

its also a very tough schedule. 
 

I’d bet the over but it’s not off by more than 2 games 
 

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1 hour ago, McNeil said:

that's based on Zach and the coaching staff IMO. I think both have enough pieces to work with to do some damage this season.

But for all the positivity surrounding the Jets right now - I have this nagging concern about our coaching staff. Their emphasis on culture ... I don't know. It's just - is Saleh and his CS ruthless enough to get the job done? Are they wedded to their systems? Or are they ruthless enough? Ruthless enough to change each game plan as necessary, going against what's familiar and thus comfortable?

We'll find out soon enough. If the Jets don't come out of the gate with a competent, mistake-free, spirited performance Week 1 - no bueno.

The entire league is sloppy week one. The Jets will be no different, especially with at least six new starters - a couple of them rookies. 
 
Coaching staff is a huge question. Last year the staff was all in teaching mode, for the whole season. The emphasis and intensity has to be different this year. There needs to be a shift from, “doing your job,” to, “winning the game.” They have to learn how to close out games. I understand that Saleh wants to be/appear more level-headed in the head coach role than he was as a coordinator, but I think he needs to embrace some of that emotion this year going forward if he’s going to succeed, too. 
 
I’m not worried about them being married to anything system-wise. They demonstrated a lot of flexibility and creativity in their rookie season, I only expect that to improve. Especially with the talent upgrades at RB, TE, CB, and Edge. 

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21 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Probably just based on the fact that the Jets have sucked for the better part of a decade and have rarely won more than 5.5 games during that time. The public expects the Jets to lose a lot.

Pretty much, this.  Until we change the narrative by winning games, folks expect us to lose.  At some point, we have to start winning, right?

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1 hour ago, Larz said:

Kind of shocking when he spoke about an off season autopsy where they realized they have Zach a too large play book. Yikes. I thought they was obvious very early. 

Definitely doesn’t inspire confidence when an offensive coordinator in the NFL needs an off season to realize what us duffers spotted during the season.

Yes, he can learn and grow but I prefer to hire people who are already qualified to perform their duties.

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3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Probably just based on the fact that the Jets have sucked for the better part of a decade and have rarely won more than 5.5 games during that time. The public expects the Jets to lose a lot.

This 

no reason getting bent out of shape about this stuff.

it will be fun when this team turns it around, and if they never do, we’ll all die eventually and not care anymore anyway.

 

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41 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

This 

no reason getting bent out of shape about this stuff.

it will be fun when this team turns it around, and if they never do, we’ll all die eventually and not care anymore anyway.

 

And thank God for that 

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On 7/3/2022 at 4:58 AM, Rhg1084 said:

307E113A-5242-4826-8560-911CE9F519C0.png

If a regular schlub who looked like that got that close to someone who looked like her the police would be called.

Ah, fame. 

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Just now, Fantasy Island said:

When we get a new QB, it's going to click.   Old Joe Flacco proved that.

Reality............................................... it stings.

Minshew can still probably be had for a 5th rounder. WHY THE HELL NOT?

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5 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

This is one of those bets where you think Vegas is being soooooooo stupid so you bet the over and then they hit the under the last game of the season by like a point. Don't **** with Vegas man. Just don't. 

This is one of those bets where you think Vegas is being soooooooo stupid so you bet the under and then they hit the over the last game of the season by like a point. Don't **** with Vegas man. Just don't. 

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I think this has more to do with who the jets play from weeks 1-11. Outside of a deshaun watsonless browns team, find me a game where we won’t be at least 2 score underdogs? The schedule looks really rough and this team is coming off a bad season. Things change fast in the NFL but this is a preseason o/u so we’re also looking at the teams we play based on how they look on paper. I don’t think the 5.5 o/u is that far off at this point.

 

99C9D8F1-D574-41F9-8C22-06856DB87BED.png

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The concept of this thread is ridiculous. Vegas lines have basically no predictive value. They are simply the point at which they can get roughly equal money on both sides. That's how they guarantee profit. So the bettors themselves determine the line and it is just folly to think that the majority of bettors are any better at analysis of NFL teams, players and seasons.

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14 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

The concept of this thread is ridiculous. Vegas lines have basically no predictive value. They are simply the point at which they can get roughly equal money on both sides. That's how they guarantee profit. So the bettors themselves determine the line and it is just folly to think that the majority of bettors are any better at analysis of NFL teams, players and seasons.

Happy Fx Networks GIF by Cake FX

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16 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

The concept of this thread is ridiculous. Vegas lines have basically no predictive value. They are simply the point at which they can get roughly equal money on both sides. That's how they guarantee profit. So the bettors themselves determine the line and it is just folly to think that the majority of bettors are any better at analysis of NFL teams, players and seasons.

while this is true of UFC main events and Super Bowls the season over unders are notorious sucker bets and are designed to attract homer over action, as much as possible 

I think it was @jgb who mentioned this the other day, if you add up all the season win totals for all 32 teams it's more wins than is technically possible. They have a real number from their models and they add 0.5 or 1 or 1.5 to that number and they are inviting fans to make long-term, low information bets based on what they hope happens. 

it also doesn't account for Ties aka the green spot on the roulette wheel 

 

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

while this is true of UFC main events and Super Bowls the season over unders are notorious sucker bets and are designed to attract homer over action, as much as possible 

I think it was @jgb who mentioned this the other day, if you add up all the season win totals for all 32 teams it's more wins than is technically possible. They have a real number from their models and they add 0.5 or 1 or 1.5 to that number and they are inviting fans to make long-term, low information bets based on what they hope happens. 

 

Yes because they understand the money will flow this way because homers gonna homer. The smart bet (if there is such a thing in O/Us in early summer) is to take unders of teams that will fall short if your team overachieves. But there a lot of psychological satisfaction for betting “on your team,” a pleasure that you must pay an additional vig for.

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