RutgersJetFan Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 12 hours ago, jgb said: This is one of those bets where you think Vegas is being soooooooo stupid so you bet the under and then they hit the over the last game of the season by like a point. Don't **** with Vegas man. Just don't. Or that. Whatever anyone bets they will surely lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 minute ago, RutgersJetFan said: Or that. Whatever anyone bets they will surely lose. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggs Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 5 hours ago, johnnysd said: The concept of this thread is ridiculous. Vegas lines have basically no predictive value. They are simply the point at which they can get roughly equal money on both sides. That's how they guarantee profit. So the bettors themselves determine the line and it is just folly to think that the majority of bettors are any better at analysis of NFL teams, players and seasons. It's not based on the majority of bettors. It's based on the majority of the money. That may well have more predictive value because it might be well researched analysis of NFL teams. A line moving might tell you almost as much as we know about how over weight Becton is because Saleh won't report his weight. Predictive value. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Anyone betting futures needs to know that the house edge is way higher than if you're betting a regular season game...by a lot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Double. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 49 minutes ago, Biggs said: It's not based on the majority of bettors. It's based on the majority of the money. That may well have more predictive value because it might be well researched analysis of NFL teams. A line moving might tell you almost as much as we know about how over weight Becton is because Saleh won't report his weight. Predictive value. I said it was based on money. But what I was saying is the majority of bettors on both sides are not closet Cynthia Freuland's so that number is more indicative of sort of hive mind emotion than factual analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashmouth Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 On 7/2/2022 at 3:13 PM, McNeil said: that's based on Zach and the coaching staff IMO. I think both have enough pieces to work with to do some damage this season. But for all the positivity surrounding the Jets right now - I have this nagging concern about our coaching staff. Their emphasis on culture ... I don't know. It's just - is Saleh and his CS ruthless enough to get the job done? Are they wedded to their systems? Or are they ruthless enough? Ruthless enough to change each game plan as necessary, going against what's familiar and thus comfortable? We'll find out soon enough. If the Jets don't come out of the gate with a competent, mistake-free, spirited performance Week 1 - no bueno. what Vegas puts out is most definitely based on the QB and the coaching staff so this shows they have zero faith in either. I hope they are wrong for the most part they usually get close but they do have their screwups as well . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashmouth Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 16 hours ago, jgb said: This is one of those bets where you think Vegas is being soooooooo stupid so you bet the under and then they hit the over the last game of the season by like a point. Don't **** with Vegas man. Just don't. based on the bets coming in vegas always adjusts the lines to make money and I'm sure they always do ..make money. they know exactly what they are doing and anyone who thinks otherwise is nuts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Speaking of betting, what a pathetic NY baseball day. Embarrassing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 5 hours ago, Smashmouth said: based on the bets coming in vegas always adjusts the lines to make money and I'm sure they always do ..make money. they know exactly what they are doing and anyone who thinks otherwise is nuts I was poking fun of the quoted post. Yes Vegas’ goal is to get equal cash on both sides of the bet. Keep the vig and take no risk themselves. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggs Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 10 hours ago, johnnysd said: I said it was based on money. But what I was saying is the majority of bettors on both sides are not closet Cynthia Freuland's so that number is more indicative of sort of hive mind emotion than factual analysis. What makes you think Freulands analysis is more predictive than lots of people with a strong enough interest in football to put their own money on the line? The people who watch the most NFL football are gamblers. The NFL knows this and has a vested interest in games having predictive value for gamblers because they are now NFL sanctioned. These gambling sites and line setters are NFL insiders that the league is in bed with and profits from. This post was sponsored by Vinny the bookie in Queens. An official NFL sports book. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 6 hours ago, Biggs said: What makes you think Freulands analysis is more predictive than lots of people with a strong enough interest in football to put their own money on the line? The people who watch the most NFL football are gamblers. The NFL knows this and has a vested interest in games having predictive value for gamblers because they are now NFL sanctioned. These gambling sites and line setters are NFL insiders that the league is in bed with and profits from. This post was sponsored by Vinny the bookie in Queens. An official NFL sports book. So you are saying that the majority of money wagered is done by gamblers that are doing deep analysis of the NFL? I also think "the people who watch the most NFL football are gamblers" statement is ludicrous. I think that even with the NFL approval of gambling only a small percentage of rabid NFL fans gamble on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggs Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 39 minutes ago, johnnysd said: So you are saying that the majority of money wagered is done by gamblers that are doing deep analysis of the NFL? I also think "the people who watch the most NFL football are gamblers" statement is ludicrous. I think that even with the NFL approval of gambling only a small percentage of rabid NFL fans gamble on it. The small percentage is clossing in on 47% this year and those fans watch multiple games if they are betting on them. People who are seeking action live and breath the action. They are way more invested than the casual fan who roots for a team, watches the team and moves on to something else. There's no doubt gamblers watch more games than none gamblers. Go to a sportsbook in Vegas during the season. They watch every single game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Biggs said: The small percentage is clossing in on 47% this year and those fans watch multiple games if they are betting on them. People who are seeking action live and breath the action. They are way more invested than the casual fan who roots for a team, watches the team and moves on to something else. There's no doubt gamblers watch more games than none gamblers. Go to a sportsbook in Vegas during the season. They watch every single game. Where did you get that statistic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 2 hours ago, johnnysd said: So you are saying that the majority of money wagered is done by gamblers that are doing deep analysis of the NFL? I also think "the people who watch the most NFL football are gamblers" statement is ludicrous. I think that even with the NFL approval of gambling only a small percentage of rabid NFL fans gamble on it. Anecdotal but I'm in the bar/restaurant business. Sunday morning from 11 to Sunday night at 11 is nothing but fantasy and gambling talk. Sunday night is usually filled with what needs to happen Monday to make your weekend/team a profit/win. I also live in a state where fantasy is legal but sports books aren't despite it happening anyway. I can't imagine how it is in the rest of the country but especially NY/NJ where it's always been going on. ETA: Saturdays are the same being it's SEC country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggs Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, johnnysd said: Where did you get that statistic? I turned off my internet connection and asked my neighbors dog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 On 7/5/2022 at 1:33 PM, jgb said: Yes because they understand the money will flow this way because homers gonna homer. The smart bet (if there is such a thing in O/Us in early summer) is to take unders of teams that will fall short if your team overachieves. But there a lot of psychological satisfaction for betting “on your team,” a pleasure that you must pay an additional vig for. Homers bet the over and the win total gets increased. If fans bet the under the # goes down. The # is based on action, not a w/l prediction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet9 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Biggs said: I turned off my internet connection and asked my neighbors dog. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Jet Nut said: Homers bet the over and the win total gets increased. If fans bet the under the # goes down. The # is based on action, not a w/l prediction I feel like you are trying to debate me by stating things I don’t disagree with. What’s up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Just now, jgb said: I feel like you are trying to debate me by stating things I don’t disagree with. What’s up? Not seeing a debate. Stating to those who believe that the line means anything with regards to w\l totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Just now, Jet Nut said: Not seeing a debate. Stating to those who believe that the line means anything with regards to w\l totals. Well it doesn’t directly. They are crowd-sourced predictions, in a way. There’s been a lot of studies on their accuracy. But with low info bets such as this, the predictive value is much lower than weekly bets, where information is higher and there isn’t such a strong psychological bias for betting on one side over the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, jgb said: Well it doesn’t directly. They are crowd-sourced predictions, in a way. There’s been a lot of studies on their accuracy. But with low info bets such as this, the predictive value is much lower than weekly bets, where information is higher and there isn’t such a strong psychological bias for betting on one side over the other. They take a reasonable guess on the starting number and then adjust by how the betting takes it. They’re just trying to hedge their bets to prevent getting wiped out from bets leaning one way or another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Jet Nut said: They take a reasonable guess on the starting number and then adjust by how the betting takes it. They’re just trying to hedge their bets to prevent getting wiped out from bets leaning one way or another. Yes their goal is to even the money on both sides. The money coming in are the “votes” that comprise the crowd-sourced prediction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normstansfield Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 I bought tix for me and my wife to go to Jets @Vikings on 12/4 why do I get the nagging suspicion I just p1ssed away $190? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Just now, Normstansfield said: I bought tix for me and my wife to go to Jets @Vikings on 12/4 why do I get the nagging suspicion I just p1ssed away $190? Get the wife tipsy and arrange an Uber home and I bet you didn't! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeNamathsFurCoat Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 basically, what this tells you is Vegas thinks Zach Wilson still sucks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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