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OTC- Maximizing Roster Construction by Valuing Positions- JD Gets It


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6 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The process has been great. The results have not. The young guys need to show up in a big way this year.

Yeah I think the only way you can say the rebuild is actually working is if the Jets actually start winning. Seems obvious I guess.

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3 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The process has been great. The results have not. The young guys need to show up in a big way this year.

Agreed. I also think the Jets failures at developing players is a constant source of frustration for fans. How has Mims, Zuninga and Davis been wasted thus far. Perine I can understand as he lacks the athleticism required for that position.

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The addendum to the title seems a little misleading to me.  I am fine with "the Process" but JD has not exactly been following this methodology to a T.  They have had extra picks based on the moves they made, but Jason says: 

Quote

Guard, center, and right tackle are the three spots where I’m not sure any case could or should be made to take in the first round unless there is simply nobody else available.  

Not only did Douglas take Vera-Tucker in the first round, he traded up to do it.  Not only that, he went over the value chart for the privilege, ending up giving up the value of 13 overall.  For a guard.  A player that this says there is no case to be made for taking in the 1st.  They were sitting at 23, so they can't even pretend "there was nobody else available."

The article also says:

Quote

There is no real argument to draft a running back in the first round but if your hope was to find the top line player who is 23, then you have to draft them, but no real reason to do so early. 

Well, they traded up for Breece Hall giving up the draft value of pick 28/29 for the privilege.  I guess you could say that isn't "early" but still...

I am sure that Douglas takes this sh*t into account, but his decisions have not exactly perfectly aligned with this methodology. 

More importantly, these mother****ers have to be able to play.

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28 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

The addendum to the title seems a little misleading to me.  I am fine with "the Process" but JD has not exactly been following this methodology to a T.  They have had extra picks based on the moves they made, but Jason says: 

Not only did Douglas take Vera-Tucker in the first round, he traded up to do it.  Not only that, he went over the value chart for the privilege, ending up giving up the value of 13 overall.  For a guard.  A player that this says there is no case to be made for taking in the 1st.  They were sitting at 23, so they can't even pretend "there was nobody else available."

The article also says:

Well, they traded up for Breece Hall giving up the draft value of pick 28/29 for the privilege.  I guess you could say that isn't "early" but still...

I am sure that Douglas takes this sh*t into account, but his decisions have not exactly perfectly aligned with this methodology. 

More importantly, these mother****ers have to be able to play.

Would the fact that AVT can also play LT (as he did at USC) add more value for the Jets trading up? Would that explain going over the value chart? 

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9 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Would the fact that AVT can also play LT (as he did at USC) add more value for the Jets trading up? Would that explain going over the value chart? 

He's got short 32 inch arms he can't play lt 

Also if we read this article carefully, it says drafting sauce at 4 is dumb too 

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9 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Would the fact that AVT can also play LT (as he did at USC) add more value for the Jets trading up? Would that explain going over the value chart? 

IMO?  Not really.  They got him to play guard.  He is playing guard.  If they actually liked him as a tackle, they would not have signed Moses last year. 

It adds to his value as a player, but NOBODY has AVT inked in as an LT.  If they did, he'd have been listed as an LT in the draft guides. I do not have a big problem with the selection.  It was kind of a weird need based deal.  Can you imagine trotting GVR and Feeney out there every week?  Ouch.  Still, it wasn't optimal and if you are going to pick a guard there it has to be a slam dunk.

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4 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

Nah IMHO the GM is doing his job.  It's totally on the CS this year.  

Weren't people saying that after 2020?  I mean how could Gase have failed to win with the likes of Mekhi Becton, Denzel Mims, Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga and LaMichael Perine on the roster?  You can't applaud the GM until you know the players don't suck.

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  • nycdan changed the title to OTC- Maximizing Roster Construction by Valuing Positions- JD Gets It
1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Not only did Douglas take Vera-Tucker in the first round, he traded up to do it.  Not only that, he went over the value chart for the privilege, ending up giving up the value of 13 overall.  For a guard.  A player that this says there is no case to be made for taking in the 1st.  They were sitting at 23, so they can't even pretend "there was nobody else available."

Who of the following picks would you have selected at that time if we stayed at #23?

Maybe Darrisaw or Rousseau or Oweh  in hindsight?

OT Christian Darrisaw, Minnesota Vikings

RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: 

RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars:

CB Greg Newsome II, Cleveland Browns:

WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens:

DE Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints:.

CB Eric Stokes, Green Bay Packers:

DE Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills: 

DE Odafe Oweh, Baltimore Ravens: 

DE Joe Tryon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

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I think that the conclusion on OG (never take one in the first) is actually wrong, because it's based on a lagging indicator (OG salaries are just starting to jump) and also the wrong indicator (top 10). Take a look at the top OG contracts the last several offseasons:

Bitonio (Nov. 21) 16M per

Thuney (Mar. 21) 16M per

Scherff (Mar. 22) 16.5 per

Teller (Nov. 21) 14.5M per

Laken (Mar. 22) 13.3M per

And that's with Zach Martin doing his extension early (2018, 14M per), and Quenton Nelson about to break the bank but not currently in the top 10. The issue at OG is that the fall-off from there is quick; after Tomlinson it drops down to 11.5M (Peat), then 10.2 (Whitehair) and 9 (Shaq Mason & Vaitai). That's about a 33% drop from 6th-highest paid to 10th-highest paid. At QB, the drop from 6 (Dak) to 10 (Goff) is 16%; you need to go all the way down to 14 to get a 33% drop (15, really, with Brady playing on a deliberately and vastly undermarket deal). At WR, the drop from 6 (Diggs, 24M) to 10 (Williams, Godwin, Cooper, 20M) is also 16%; you need to go all the way to 18 (Woods, 16.25M) to get a 33% drop. At LT, the drop from 6 (Kolton Miller, 18M) to 10 (Lewan and Mailata, 16M) is 11%; you need to get all the way down to 19 (Tyron Smith, 12.5) to get a 33% drop.

In other words, the reason the salary cap benefit of drafting an OG in the first is so small isn't because the top-end is dramatically lower - it's because the top end is a small group and the middle class is packed tight enough that the difference in value from "elite" to "10th best" is a much steeper cliff than at other positions.

AVT's APY is about 4M. If you expect him to be a top 7 OG in the league, the salary cap benefit is 9-10M, or on par with IDL. Top 5 is 12M, or about the same as LT or Edge.

Bottom line, if you're taking an OG in the first round, you better be doing it with the expectation that you're getting a top-5-7 player at the position, not top 10 - and those guys either don't hit FA (Bitonio, Teller, Martin, Nelson) or get huge deals when they do. And that tells you what the Jets expected to be getting in AVT when they drafted him. 

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3 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Who of the following picks would you have selected at that time if we stayed at #23?

Maybe Darrisaw or Rousseau or Owen in hindsight?

OT Christian Darrisaw, Minnesota Vikings

RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: 

RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars:

CB Greg Newsome II, Cleveland Browns:

WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens:

DE Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints:.

CB Eric Stokes, Green Bay Packers:

DE Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills: 

DE Odafe Oweh, Baltimore Ravens: 

DE Joe Tryon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Kind of tough for me to get into that game.  It's a little cheap trying to play the hindsight game, but Darrisaw is the obvious choice.  FWIW, I liked Rousseau and did not like Bateman or Tevin Jenkins.  More importantly to me, if they didn't move up there were plenty of bodies to be had - Dyami Brown, Wyatt Davis, Davis Mills, etc, etc.  The Jets did roll the 4th they got back into Echols, Pinnock and Marshall, but there were dozens of interesting names to be had with those two third rounders.

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5 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

https://overthecap.com/maximizing-roster-construction-by-valuing-positions-in-the-nfl-draft

Guard, center, and right tackle are the three spots where I’m not sure any case could or should be made to take in the first round unless there is simply nobody else available.  

So trading 2 third rounders and a first to move up in the 1st round to draft a guard was a bad idea?

I like Jason's stuff a lot, and the cost at picking up a guard was huge, so maybe JD doesn't quite get it just yet.

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5 minutes ago, chirorob said:

So trading 2 third rounders and a first to move up in the 1st round to draft a guard was a bad idea?

I like Jason's stuff a lot, and the cost at picking up a guard was huge, so maybe JD doesn't quite get it just yet.

I also think that since JD’s 2020 draft was underwhelming… It seems as if he is moved towards making moves for players with very high upside. AVT, Breece Hall, JJ

Hitting on 3-4 picks at premium positions every draft more important than having 8-9 picks every draft. At least not yet. Once you have quality starters, then you build depth.

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1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

I also think that since JD’s 2020 draft was underwhelming… It seems as if he is moved towards making moves for players with very high upside. AVT, Breece Hall, JJ

Hitting on 3-4 picks at premium positions every draft more important than having 8-9 picks every draft. At least not yet. Once you have quality starters, then you build depth.

1 first and 2 thirds better be an amazing guard based on positional value, that's my only point.   Hopefully he goes to 10 pro bowls, making it look like a great trade.

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28 minutes ago, chirorob said:

So trading 2 third rounders and a first to move up in the 1st round to draft a guard was a bad idea?

I like Jason's stuff a lot, and the cost at picking up a guard was huge, so maybe JD doesn't quite get it just yet.

I think there is something to be said for @Doggin94it's point.  They tried to fill the G position in free agency and things were kind of pricey and they entered the draft with some questionable players there.  The cost to add a starting caliber guard might have been more than Jason is admitting.  Alex Lewis also may have played into things.  I am not sure what the issue with him was, but they carried him, but there were obviously issues there.  They might have hoped to roll with him, but not been able to.  He seemed better than GVR and Feeney.  Probably LDT too. 

4 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

I also think that since JD’s 2020 draft was underwhelming… It seems as if he is moved towards making moves for players with very high upside. AVT, Breece Hall, JJ

Hitting on 3-4 picks at premium positions every draft more important than having 8-9 picks every draft. At least not yet. Once you have quality starters, then you build depth.

I'm not so sure about this.  I think this board overrates Johnson's ceiling by a pretty fair amount.  More importantly, they went about 2021 precisely like they were seeking to build depth and then find starters.  I am sure that they hoped that the starters would come from that depth, but the secondary, for instance, seems like they just tried to get NFL caliber bodies and did not worry that much about having starters.  They went into camp with Hall and Austin as starters and added a bunch of guys that literally nobody on the planet would have counted on to start.

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3 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Who of the following picks would you have selected at that time if we stayed at #23?

Maybe Darrisaw or Rousseau or Oweh  in hindsight?

OT Christian Darrisaw, Minnesota Vikings

RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: 

RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars:

CB Greg Newsome II, Cleveland Browns:

WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens:

DE Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints:.

CB Eric Stokes, Green Bay Packers:

DE Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills: 

DE Odafe Oweh, Baltimore Ravens: 

DE Joe Tryon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Exactly, all these theories of who’s worthy of being picked where is nice but it doesn’t always work that way.  You need a G and a real good one is available if you’re willing to trade up you do it.  AVT right now is our best OL, I could care less what a chart says, he helped transform the OL.  

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14 minutes ago, chirorob said:

1 first and 2 thirds better be an amazing guard based on positional value, that's my only point.   Hopefully he goes to 10 pro bowls, making it look like a great trade.

 

After the Jets traded up in the first round to select guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, General Manager Joe Douglas called it a unique opportunity to get a very good prospect. Based on what he paid, he’d better be right.

The Jets gave up picks No. 23, 66 and 86 to get pick No. 14, which they used to select Vera-Tucker, as well as pick No. 143 from the Vikings. No matter which draft chart you look at, the Jets paid more than teams should pay to move up from 23 to 14.

Seth Walder of ESPN, using a slightly different draft chart, estimates that the Jets overpaid by the 66th overall pick. In other words, for the trade to be fair, the Jets should have given up only No. 23 and No. 86. Instead they gave up both of those picks and No. 66 overall. Whatever prospect the Jets might have taken at No. 66, the absence of that player is what the Jets overpaid by.

The Vikings took Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond at No. 66. It’s unlikely the Jets would have taken him, but lots of good offensive line prospects, like Michigan’s Jalen Mayfield and BYU’s Brady Christensen, were still there at No. 66. The Jets want to build a good offensive line in front of rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, and that’s smart. But they might have built a better offensive line by staying put and drafting two offensive linemen, rather than trading up and targeting one specific offensive lineman, Vera-Tucker.

Obviously, Douglas thinks Vera-Tucker is going to be an excellent NFL player, and he may prove to be right. But even the best draft evaluators miss sometimes, and Douglas is showing an enormous amount of confidence not only that he’s right about how good Vera-Tucker is going to be, but also that he can be sure Vera-Tucker wouldn’t have been available with the 23rd overall pick, and that Vera-Tucker is going to be better than both the player the Jets could have taken at No. 23 and the player the Jets could have taken at No. 66 combined.

Most of the time, the draft just isn’t that predictable, and the ultimate production of NFL players just doesn’t align that closely with where those players were on any individual GM’s draft board. Douglas paid a huge price for his high level of faith in one particular prospect.

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18 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Exactly, all these theories of who’s worthy of being picked where is nice but it doesn’t always work that way.  You need a G and a real good one is available if you’re willing to trade up you do it.  AVT right now is our best OL, I could care less what a chart says, he helped transform the OL.  

He transformed the OL into what?  They pretty much sucked. They achieved mediocrity midseason, only after adding a sh*tty guard.  As has been said, it was a need and they loved the prospect, I can see it.  OTOH, if you think that any time you need a G and a good one is available you trade up you're not playing the draft right. 

I'm not sure how you decided that AVT was our best OL.  They just signed Tomlinson, he's not even our best G.  I hope he develops into a stud, but he literally graded worse than our entire OLine last year.  Fant, Moses, McGovern and even GVR graded better.  So did McDermott.  Don't like PFF?  Fant was voted team MVP, so I assume that PFF aren't the only ones disagreeing with your assessment.

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32 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

He transformed the OL into what?  They pretty much sucked. They achieved mediocrity midseason, only after adding a sh*tty guard.  As has been said, it was a need and they loved the prospect, I can see it.  OTOH, if you think that any time you need a G and a good one is available you trade up you're not playing the draft right. 

I'm not sure how you decided that AVT was our best OL.  They just signed Tomlinson, he's not even our best G.  I hope he develops into a stud, but he literally graded worse than our entire OLine last year.  Fant, Moses, McGovern and even GVR graded better.  So did McDermott.  Don't like PFF?  Fant was voted team MVP, so I assume that PFF aren't the only ones disagreeing with your assessment.

The OL wasn’t better?  AVT wasn’t our best OL last year?  He was the one guy I wasn’t worried about.  And he wasn’t the best last year because we signed LT this year?  Who says LT will be better this year than AVT in year two?  I watch the team, I watch games and if you tell me GVR is better than AVT because of some grading system PFF dishes out well you can, I don’t.   
None of this has a thing to do with my original statement, that your draft and positional value is effected by your needs and what’s available at your draft position.  And of course ones personal bias.  We were morons for taking Darnold when we could drafted Q Nelson in 2018 in the top 5.  Now Gs and AVT was a questionable pick at 14.  Same with taking a RB at low 1st value.  When did that become so ill advised when your in need of an every down back with size and one wasn’t available elsewhere and when you’re trying to avoid large FA signings
It’s all so confusing.  

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27 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

The OL wasn’t better?  AVT wasn’t our best OL last year?  He was the one guy I wasn’t worried about.  And he wasn’t the best last year because we signed LT this year?  Who says LT will be better this year than AVT in year two?  I watch the team, I watch games and if you tell me GVR is better than AVT because of some grading system PFF dishes out well you can, I don’t.   
None of this has a thing to do with my original statement, that your draft and positional value is effected by your needs and what’s available at your draft position.  And of course ones personal bias.  We were morons for taking Darnold when we could drafted Q Nelson in 2018 in the top 5.  Now Gs and AVT was a questionable pick at 14.  Same with taking a RB at low 1st value.  When did that become so ill advised when your in need of an every down back with size and one wasn’t available elsewhere and when you’re trying to avoid large FA signings
It’s all so confusing.  

You are literally posting in a thread with an article explaining why drafting a guard or RB early is probably a mistake.  It really isn't that confusing.  Read the article.  It's been considered ill advised for years and this article literally updates that theory and explains why.  Your lack of worry about AVT is not exactly what I am looking for at 14.  I think AVT will be fine.  I still won't be sure about his value at 14 until he is a hell of a lot better than that. 

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57 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

You are literally posting in a thread with an article explaining why drafting a guard or RB early is probably a mistake.  It really isn't that confusing.  Read the article.  It's been considered ill advised for years and this article literally updates that theory and explains why.  Your lack of worry about AVT is not exactly what I am looking for at 14.  I think AVT will be fine.  I still won't be sure about his value at 14 until he is a hell of a lot better than that. 

And once again I’ll say that value of a position is affected by need and availability.  I’m not confused.  So I guess I don’t agree with the article.  Was N Harris a waste for the Steelers at 24?  If you need one, there isn’t an option and you already picked 3Xs in the 1st, IMO it’s not an issue

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2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And once again I’ll say that value of a position is affected by need and availability.  So I guess I don’t agree with the article.  Was N Harris a waste for the Steelers at 24?  

Nobody is saying that drafting a decent player is a "waste."  They are saying that it is a misallocation or resources to draft a back or guard that high.  I won't @ him again, but Doggin' mentions a reason why the selection of a guard that high might not be so bad, though I believe he states that guard should be closer to top 5 than top 10 to make it worthwhile.  I would agree with that, and say that I think they stake a great deal of reputation on AVT being better than just good. 

More importantly, I think you are overstating the need/availability issue. 

The simple fact is, the need was a result of decisions made by the GM.  When Douglas took over the Jets had Winters and Osemele starting with Compton on the bench, and they managed to downgrade.  Those guys have started NFL games since they left.  Hell, even Braden and Harrison are still in the league.

If they would have drafted decent interior line depth in 2020, or made a decent move in 2021 FA they would not have been sitting there with such a dire need at G.  As it was, even with AVT they had a gaping hole at G.  I get that Lewis probably had off-field issues and Clarke had the kind of serious injury that cannot be predicted, but going into the draft with Feeney, Clarke and GVR seems like poor planning.  Particularly since they knew that Lewis was a question mark from 2020.  That is the kind of poor planning that makes you overpay in a trade up. 

I get that you think that AVT was the best lineman on the Jets in 2021, but he probably wasn't the best rookie guard.  Trey Smith went in the 6th round and was on the PFWA all-rookie team with Vera-Tucker.  AVT did not even make at least one all-rookie team that had Smith and Landon Dickerson who went 37 overall in the 2nd round.  Theoretically, they also could have taken Creed Humphrey who went 63 and slid McGovern to G, all without the trade up.  Of course, PFF had AVT on their all-rookie team, so he has that going for him, though I doubt you'd crow about that.

Guards, backs and centers are players you should be finding cheap, not trading up for.  The failure to do so and forcing trade ups into the 1st half or the first round, or blowing big money on guys like Faneca or Mawae is a failing.  Is it the end of the world?  No, but there are better ways to go about things. 

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5 hours ago, chirorob said:

1 first and 2 thirds better be an amazing guard based on positional value, that's my only point.   Hopefully he goes to 10 pro bowls, making it look like a great trade.

To be clear….

Seth Walder of ESPN, using a slightly different draft chart, estimates that the Jets overpaid by the 66th overall pick. In other words, for the trade to be fair, the Jets should have given up only No. 23 and No. 86. Instead they gave up both of those picks and No. 66 overall. Whatever prospect the Jets might have taken at No. 66, the absence of that player is what the Jets overpaid by.

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21 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

To be clear….

Seth Walder of ESPN, using a slightly different draft chart, estimates that the Jets overpaid by the 66th overall pick. In other words, for the trade to be fair, the Jets should have given up only No. 23 and No. 86. Instead they gave up both of those picks and No. 66 overall. Whatever prospect the Jets might have taken at No. 66, the absence of that player is what the Jets overpaid by.

At the end of the day, if he becomes very good to great, it's a good trade.

If he fails, it is a massive over use of resources.   Imma hoping he goes to 12 straight pro bowls.

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Just now, chirorob said:

At the end of the day, if he becomes very good to great, it's a good trade.

If he fails, it is a massive over use of resources.   Imma hoping he goes to 12 straight pro bowls.

Except that’s not how a legitimate analysis works. Even bad decisions can work out. 

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9 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

The addendum to the title seems a little misleading to me.  I am fine with "the Process" but JD has not exactly been following this methodology to a T.  They have had extra picks based on the moves they made, but Jason says: 

Not only did Douglas take Vera-Tucker in the first round, he traded up to do it.  Not only that, he went over the value chart for the privilege, ending up giving up the value of 13 overall.  For a guard.  A player that this says there is no case to be made for taking in the 1st.  They were sitting at 23, so they can't even pretend "there was nobody else available."

The article also says:

Well, they traded up for Breece Hall giving up the draft value of pick 28/29 for the privilege.  I guess you could say that isn't "early" but still...

I am sure that Douglas takes this sh*t into account, but his decisions have not exactly perfectly aligned with this methodology. 

More importantly, these mother****ers have to be able to play.

I don't know where this is coming from but the bolded are completely incorrect:

Jets trade: #23 760 points #66 260 points and #86 160 points for a total of 1180 points

Minnesota trades #14 1100 points #143 34.5 points 1134.5 points

Difference 65.5 points or roughly pick #114

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10 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Who of the following picks would you have selected at that time if we stayed at #23?

Maybe Darrisaw or Rousseau or Oweh  in hindsight?

OT Christian Darrisaw, Minnesota Vikings

RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: 

RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars:

CB Greg Newsome II, Cleveland Browns:

WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens:

DE Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints:.

CB Eric Stokes, Green Bay Packers:

DE Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills: 

DE Odafe Oweh, Baltimore Ravens: 

DE Joe Tryon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

 

Rousseau.

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1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

I don't know where this is coming from but the bolded are completely incorrect:

Jets trade: #23 760 points #66 260 points and #86 160 points for a total of 1180 points

Minnesota trades #14 1100 points #143 34.5 points 1134.5 points

Difference 65.5 points or roughly pick #114

You literally did the math for me.  They traded the value of pick #13 for AVT.  That is what I said and that is what happened.  Pick #114 + #114 = #13.  I think 13 is worth 1150 so maybe between 12 and 13  but I gave them the benefit of the doubt. 

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2 hours ago, jgb said:

Except that’s not how a legitimate analysis works. Even bad decisions can work out. 

Sure it is; the Jets picked AVT with the expectation that he'd be a top 5-7 guard in the league, which is what he needs to be to make the deal worthwhile. If he becomes what they expect, the deal is fine. If he doesn't, the deal is terrible. The extent to which it's a "bad decision" depends on the level of confidence in his upside outcome, which isn't something any of us are ever going to know.

17 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

You literally did the math for me.  They traded the value of pick #13 for AVT.  That is what I said and that is what happened.  Pick #114 + #114 = #13.  I think 13 is worth 1150 so maybe between 12 and 13  but I gave them the benefit of the doubt. 

So what you're saying is they traded the equivalent of the 12.5 pick and got back 14?

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6 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Sure it is; the Jets picked AVT with the expectation that he'd be a top 5-7 guard in the league, which is what he needs to be to make the deal worthwhile. If he becomes what they expect, the deal is fine. If he doesn't, the deal is terrible. The extent to which it's a "bad decision" depends on the level of confidence in his upside outcome, which isn't something any of us are ever going to know.

I’d call it a “fortunate mistake” if AVT becomes a top 5 guard. The point of the article is that it’s a misallocation of resources from an opportunity cost perspective and one positive outcome doesn’t change that. But yeah obv I want him to be a stud and if he does, people will stop talking about it because that’s how humans think — good result means the decision must’ve been the right one.

6 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

So what you're saying is they traded the equivalent of the 12.5 pick and got back 14?

Now one thing I think we agree with is the trade charts are not the Bible—rather it’s a starting place for negotiations. Every draft is different, team need and quality of prospects are all over the place. Macc — bless his heart — correctly identified Kamara as a player but walked away from the deal to trade up for him because the other team (I forget which) wanted compensation above “chart value.” There is something to be said for a GM with the courage of his convictions who is willing to go get his guy. JD has demonstrated that he doesn’t draft afraid. I’d take that over a guy so afraid to make a mistake that he never takes any perceived risks.

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