NFL Network predicts 3 wins for Jets

[32EBoozer]

58 minutes ago, PorP said:

I think you are taking my words as negative?  If so. They are not. Only telling the truth about the current state of the jets. 

I'm a full supporter of the new management and coaching for the jets along with thier vision. I love what jd has done last 2 off-season across the board (2020 is a free pass for me as jd had crazy eyes gase in his ear). I'm 100% sure Zach will step this year and 65% sure it will be a meaningful step. 

For the first time in a long time I'm excited. Only pointing out we got a lot going on without any data to tell us what that means. 

Welcome to the board. I guess you’ve been following the Jets long enough to know there are two types of Jets fans (for the most part). Longtime faithful fans who are tired of the “Endless Circle” of tear down/ rebuilds and the “Maybe this is the Year” hopefuls. I fall into both categories (1968) and for the 1st time in a long time I have hope for a successful year. 
Just finished watching 1 Jets Drive again with a focus on Episode 3 (Plan in Place) & 4 (Come Up & Get Me). I am stoked on how everything came together. Even when we failed to get Tyreek, it showed me JD has discipline to follow through on the plan with no shortcuts. 

[section314]

On 7/5/2022 at 10:39 AM, Lith said:

Same guy has the Bears going 10-7, making the playoffs and refers to their matchup with the Bills as a "potential Super Bowl matchup."  

I didn't know the NFL network had a studio in the Betty Ford Clinic.

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

On 7/5/2022 at 10:59 AM, LionelRichie said:

The jets haven’t been over .500 at any point in the season is like 5 years.    Can you really blame an analyst for 3 wins? 

So teams don't improve?  The past is the best predictor for the future?  OK

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

On 7/5/2022 at 12:21 PM, munchmemory said:

Back in March, I called 2-4 wins.    Guess they finally read my post and split the difference.

Based on what? Back it up.  I'm not sure if you and others ( @Fantasy Island,  @kevinc855 @bitonti) are just joking, trolling, or perpetually miserable.

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, PorP said:

You convoluted and combined 2 different thoughts of mine to make an incorrect point. 

Teams can be evaluated with reasonable acvuracy as can our SOS. 

The Jets cannot be. You missed the points I was making about this.  There is far too much volatility.  We will end up with 30% turnover on our 53 man. We will be talking about how these 4 our 5 rooks come out of the gate. The 2nd year jump in 4 key positions, how these 5 out 6 FAs meld with the team and perform in the system and all relating that to W /Ls... 

The fact is Jets are the most volatile team in the NFL right now.  That can turn out bad, good or great and there is not one piece of proof to say which. 

No, not really.  I tried to show you how you're looking at the Jets in a vacuum vs. other teams.  Other teams, are turning over rosters, getting new HC's, have new QB's, etc. etc. etc.  You can predict all you want but you dont know sh*t and if you follow the NFL, you know SOS means nothing a team could be a #1 seed but face the Jets w/ out their starter. That's real.  So again, you're taking assumption for other teams and not the Jets.  And I get it.  I'm a Jets fan.  We suck and there is a precedent but if that's it, then just say it.  The rest isnt real rationale. 

You're yelling about the roster turnover, cool.  Last year they started a rookie QB, w/ a rookie HC and rookie OC w/ the youngest roster in the NFL....and you're sitting here pitching to me that the Jets in a worse situation therefore more unpredictable and could actually be worse than last year.  Cool.  I'm not buying it.  If you disagree, fine but the stuff you're selling is silly.  I'd buy, "it's the Jets", over it, any day. 

 

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

On 7/5/2022 at 12:49 PM, Fantasy Island said:

3-6 wins is realistic.

If we had got Matt Ryan , then 6-10 wins would be my expectation.

Hopefully Hall is the next Derrick Henry.

That would be a great future - an old QB suitable for a win now team on a rebuilding team. Where do you get this stuff and how does Matt Ryan help the Jets?  This is just a ridiculous take.

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, Dreams said:

No insult intended, but I think you've been playing too much Madden, in the real NFL, there are thousands of examples of teams adding talent in the off season and being worse than the previous year. If talent on paper was the biggest decider of wins and losses, there would never be a reason to play the games. The reality is that there is so much more that goes into a teams performance, scheme, coaching, chemistry, luck, all mean more combined than talent level alone. There are 32 teams and fan bases that believe they got better this offseason, most of them are wrong. You're looking for the outcome that you want to happen, which is why you can't see how the Jets could be worse. You're assuming all those draft picks will play and produce at a higher level than last year, they all won't, your assuming all the Free agents will be an upgrade, they won't, you're assuming a major improvement from a rookie QB, you're assuming what fanbases of all 32 teams assume right now in the off-season. That's just the nature of the off season. 

I dont play Madden and have no idea how it applies to my post, so no offense taken, ❤️

This is a great post and you're right, in some cases and in others, you're ignoring factors just like PorP so I wont repeat myself but instead, I'll simply ask you a question...

How many wins do you think the Jets have at the end of 22?

 

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

23 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

It’s funny, when the Jets brought Tebow in some very vocal fans blamed Tebow for taking Sanchez’s confidence away and ruining him forever.  Now it’s a joke that we havn’t bring in competition for our 2nd year QB as if that’s the key to his development.  

I'm so with you. This QB competition thing is just absurd when you have a young QB to develop.  It's a farce. 

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, bitonti said:

I predicted 5-12 in Warfish's thread yesterday. 

3 is realistic as is 7. those are the realistic negative and positive outcomes. they won 2 the year before and 4 last year. 5,6,7 is about the neighborhood of "realistic improvement" 3 and 4 are realistic "going sideways" outcomes, especially looking at the schedule. 

this board is all about 9-8 and a wildcard - that's hopeful - a rare positive outlier (especially because the wildcard in the AFC is going to need 11).

That's like me saying they aren't going to win a single game and go 0-17, the rare negative outlier. That could happen too, with a couple of key injuries. But i suspect this team is better than last year's and will steal some wins they shouldn't *OUTSIDE OF THE DIVISION*. 

Why dont you just cover your basis and say the Jets are going to have somewhere between 1 and 17 wins next season? 

[PorP]

13 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

No, not really.  I tried to show you how you're looking at the Jets in a vacuum vs. other teams.  Other teams, are turning over rosters, getting new HC's, have new QB's, etc. etc. etc.  You can predict all you want but you dont know sh*t and if you follow the NFL, you know SOS means nothing a team could be a #1 seed but face the Jets w/ out their starter. That's real.  So again, you're taking assumption for other teams and not the Jets.  And I get it.  I'm a Jets fan.  We suck and there is a precedent but if that's it, then just say it.  The rest isnt real rationale. 

You're yelling about the roster turnover, cool.  Last year they started a rookie QB, w/ a rookie HC and rookie OC w/ the youngest roster in the NFL....and you're sitting here pitching to me that the Jets in a worse situation therefore more unpredictable and could actually be worse than last year.  Cool.  I'm not buying it.  If you disagree, fine but the stuff you're selling is silly.  I'd buy, "it's the Jets", over it, any day. 

 

You're not being serious right... lol

Calm down spunky....

Can you point me to any W/L prediction I made on this entire board? Oh no.. I didn't think so. 

Me pointing out the jets are the most volatile team in the NFL should not cause you to bled from the ears...

And you shouldn't be pointing out other teams minor turnover to = or situation

Now please point me to the post I made where I said the jets are going to be bad or where I have a win prediction. 

[munchmemory]

13 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

Based on what? Back it up.  I'm not sure if you and others ( @Fantasy Island,  @kevinc855 @bitonti) are just joking, trolling, or perpetually miserable.

For me?  Just being a Jet fan since 1965.  After all the decades of idiocy and ineptitude, the negativity is just a part of the gig.

As for my "prognostication"?  I just looked at our opponents and guessed wins and losses.  Came up with 2-4 wins.  

As for backing it up?   That's up to the team.  Can they do better than 2-4 wins?  Sure.  Do i believe it?  No.

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

8 minutes ago, munchmemory said:

For me?  Just being a Jet fan since 1965.  After all the decades of idiocy and ineptitude, the negativity is just a part of the gig.

As for my "prognostication"?  I just looked at our opponents and guessed wins and losses.  Came up with 2-4 wins.  

As for backing it up?   That's up to the team.  Can they do better than 2-4 wins?  Sure.  Do i believe it?  No.

I've been a Jets fan since 1966 and that doesn't make me an eternal pessimist about the team in general and an annual pessimist without reason.  There was cause for pessimism from 2016-2021, particularly in the Gase years of 2019-20. 2021 was obviously going to involve growing pains.  This year will have some growing pains as well, but the roster is better than it has been in 6-7 years, but this time with some youth.  I find it hard to think you are not pulling 2-4 wins out of your butt just to say "I told you so" after the season and if they exceed that you'll say the team stepped up. I'm just so tired of the Greenberg/Benigno self loathing Jets fan act.  It paints the rest of us in such a bad light.  This type is like the Eeyore of football fans and it's ridiculous.  It's a game.  Enjoy it. Life is too short.

[JustInFudge]

18 minutes ago, PorP said:

You're not being serious right... lol

Calm down spunky....

Can you point me to any W/L prediction I made on this entire board? Oh no.. I didn't think so. 

Me pointing out the jets are the most volatile team in the NFL should not cause you to bled from the ears...

And you shouldn't be pointing out other teams minor turnover to = or situation

Now please point me to the post I made where I said the jets are going to be bad or where I have a win prediction. 

I'm quite calm, not sure why you're getting all worked up.  Just having a chat with you which at this point, I dont even know what we're talking about.  If you dont think the Jets are going to win 3 games, then why are you arguing with me? 

I agree they are unpredictable, I've said that repeatedly.  They're breaking in a ton of new players and Zach is a wild card.  I personally dont think that's as scary as last year with the a rookie QB, rookie HC, rookie OC, youngest roster in the NFL.  Also, other teams are experiencing turnover, not just players, so coaching staffs too but for some reason, that's not a factor for you.  Which is fine but it is too me.  So, again, I'm not buying the Jets are in a worse situation than last year and are going to win less games because of new players and other teams are scary.

[PorP]

46 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Welcome to the board. I guess you’ve been following the Jets long enough to know there are two types of Jets fans (for the most part). Longtime faithful fans who are tired of the “Endless Circle” of tear down/ rebuilds and the “Maybe this is the Year” hopefuls. I fall into both categories (1968) and for the 1st time in a long time I have hope for a successful year. 
Just finished watching 1 Jets Drive again with a focus on Episode 3 (Plan in Place) & 4 (Come Up & Get Me). I am stoked on how everything came together. Even when we failed to get Tyreek, it showed me JD has discipline to follow through on the plan with no shortcuts. 

Ya man. That series made me want to run through brick walls I was so amped.

I would say I'm equally or maybe even more excited than the first 2 Rex Ryan years. We had an outstanding team when he showed up.

I thought that dude was getting us a ring for sure but then it flopped after the 2nd season

 

 

[mfmartin]

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-network-predicts-outcome-every-160526223.html
I have such hope that the decimated roster from last year is SOOOOO different from this year's roster/talent, there's no way we finish 3-14. How do these writers not account for that?

Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[PorP]

11 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I'm quite calm, not sure why you're getting all worked up.  Just having a chat with you which at this point, I dont even know what we're talking about.  If you dont think the Jets are going to win 3 games, then why are you arguing with me? 

I agree they are unpredictable, I've said the repeatedly.  They're breaking in a ton of new players and Zach is a wild card.  I personally dont think that's as scary as last year with the a rookie QB, rookie HC, rookie OC, youngest roster in the NFL.  Also, other teams are experiencing turnover, not just players, so coaching staffs too but for some reason, that's not a factor for you.  Which is fine but it is too me.  So, again, I'm not buying the Jets are in a worse situation than last year and are going to win less games.  

I think man if you go re-read my posts to you with it in your head I wasn't attacking your view. You might see them differently.

My only point was the jets could be the jets 2 years ago or the cincy Bengals and anywhere in between.  

Someone else pointed out teams improve there rosters and get worse while other teams shock the league and either could be us. and we haven't even seen 11 on 11s to validate anyone's opinion yet. 

[munchmemory]

25 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

I've been a Jets fan since 1966 and that doesn't make me an eternal pessimist about the team in general and an annual pessimist without reason.  There was cause for pessimism from 2016-2021, particularly in the Gase years of 2019-20. 2021 was obviously going to involve growing pains.  This year will have some growing pains as well, but the roster is better than it has been in 6-7 years, but this time with some youth.  I find it hard to think you are not pulling 2-4 wins out of your butt just to say "I told you so" after the season and if they exceed that you'll say the team stepped up. I'm just so tired of the Greenberg/Benigno self loathing Jets fan act.  It paints the rest of us in such a bad light.  This type is like the Eeyore of football fans and it's ridiculous.  It's a game.  Enjoy it. Life is too short.

Good for you.  God speed.

[bitonti]

48 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Why dont you just cover your basis and say the Jets are going to have somewhere between 1 and 17 wins next season? 

Because 0 is possible as well 

for the record I predict 5 wins

just enough for Vegas to clean everyone out on the Season Over 

[bitonti]

32 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

I'm just so tired of the Greenberg/Benigno self loathing Jets fan act.  It paints the rest of us in such a bad light.  This type is like the Eeyore of football fans and it's ridiculous.  It's a game.  Enjoy it. Life is too short.

what if complaining about the Jets is how I enjoy it? 

 

[munchmemory]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

what if complaining about the Jets is how I enjoy it? 

 

Or how the beneficent Creator intended it.

[Jet Nut]

59 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Why dont you just cover your basis and say the Jets are going to have somewhere between 1 and 17 wins next season? 

You’re not finding a prediction of 3-7 wins specific enough? 

[JustInFudge]

9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Because 0 is possible as well 

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

You’re not finding a prediction of 3-7 wins specific enough? 

Apparently 0 as well 

[bitonti]

1 minute ago, JiFapono said:

Apparently 0 as well 

put it this way 0 is just as likely as 10 

honest question how many wins do you predict Fapono 

 

[Jet Nut]

2 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Apparently 0 as well 

Somehow omitting the 1 win or 2 win option

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

put it this way 0 is just as likely as 10 

honest question how many wins do you predict Fapono 

 

I don’t know yet it’s July but more than 4.  If I had to guess gun to head, exact number?  8.   But if I get to use a range, I won’t go 0-17 like you, 6-9 depending on Wilson. 

[jgb]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Welcome to the board. I guess you’ve been following the Jets long enough to know there are two types of Jets fans (for the most part). Longtime faithful fans who are tired of the “Endless Circle” of tear down/ rebuilds and the “Maybe this is the Year” hopefuls. I fall into both categories (1968) and for the 1st time in a long time I have hope for a successful year. 
Just finished watching 1 Jets Drive again with a focus on Episode 3 (Plan in Place) & 4 (Come Up & Get Me). I am stoked on how everything came together. Even when we failed to get Tyreek, it showed me JD has discipline to follow through on the plan with no shortcuts. 

I also believe there are two types of Jets fans. Those that take out their frustration on the team. Then those that take out their frustration on the fans who take out their frustration on the team.

[32EBoozer]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

I also believe there are two types of Jets fans. Those that take out their frustration on the team. Then those that take out their frustration on the fans who take out their frustration on the team.

And which category do you fall under?

[jgb]

Just now, 32EBoozer said:

And which category do you fall under?

I am a unique flower, priceless in its beauty and rarity.

[32EBoozer]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

I am a unique flower, priceless in its beauty and rarity.

 

Prickly, yet with a hint of optimism

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

 

Prickly, yet with a hint of optimism

You only needed the first 5 letters, but I’ll take it all.

[PepPep]

On 7/5/2022 at 10:23 AM, bitonti said:

it's a homer prediction to predict 2 division wins when they haven't won a division game for 3 years. 

but aside from that you're making a ton of sense and I basically agree with all of it.

where we disagree is that they are more likely to steal games up to 8 than they are getting screwed by bad luck and ending up at 3. Those outcomes seem equally plausible. leaving the average outcome somewhere in the 5-6 win neighborhood. They are a young team, relying on youth at too many key spots.  

 

Ok. A bit of a skewed look at divisional matchups. Division games are always tough. They are always a bit of a toss-up.

Yes, the Jets did not win any divisional games in 2021 or 2020....BUT...they did win at least one divisional game in 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, I mean, should I keep going? Cuz I can. Cuz they did in 2011 as well. And 2010 and 2009 and 2008...

Suggesting that the Jets will get swept by the Bills- a far superior team and split with the Pats and Fins is far from being a homer. Maybe a bit optimistic? Sure. Homer? Nonsense. 

[jgb]

18 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Ok. A bit of a skewed look at divisional matchups. Division games are always tough. They are always a bit of a toss-up.

Yes, the Jets did not win any divisional games in 2021 or 2020....BUT...they did win at least one divisional game in 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, I mean, should I keep going? Cuz I can. Cuz they did in 2011 as well. And 2010 and 2009 and 2008...

Suggesting that the Jets will get swept by the Bills- a far superior team and split with the Pats and Fins is far from being a homer. Maybe a bit optimistic? Sure. Homer? Nonsense. 

But for the Jets (or their opponents, for that matter) they haven't been a toss-up at all...

[PepPep]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

But for the Jets (or their opponents, for that matter) they haven't been a toss-up at all...

Again, they have won one or more division games in 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008...and so on. Yes, the last two years the Jets have not been able to win any. Its an outlier. Division games are hard fought and often nail biters. 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

Again, they have won one or more division games in 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008...and so on. Yes, the last two years the Jets have not been able to win any. Its an outlier. Division games are hard fought and often nail biters. 

It just feels that way because they are more important and it's easier for us to remember specific division games years later. Non-division games feature more upsets and the difference in margin of victory in division v. non-division games is not statistically-significant (0.1 points).

*****

In all, the average margin of victory goes from 11.6 points in divisional games to a whopping 11.7 points in contests between teams who don’t play in the same division. 

It’s safe to let this idea go [that division games are closer]. Familiarity might breed contempt, but it doesn’t produce tighter football scores.

http://grantland.com/features/upon-initial-review-week-3/

*****

When two teams play, how often does the team with the better overall record that season actually win that specific game?

Since 1995, discounting games in which the teams end the year with the same record, the answer is 72.7 percent of the time. However, looking only at division games, the answer is 74.1 percent of the time. Upsets are actually less frequent during division games.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=3572409