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NFL Network predicts 3 wins for Jets


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On 7/5/2022 at 11:08 AM, bitonti said:

If the Jets are as injured as they were the last few years, 3 wins is very realistic

This 7-8 win stuff is like a best case scenario 

Everything has to be break just right for the Jets to sniff 500

Since when has that happened? A bet on Jets good luck is a Homer bet 

Every team has injuries.  The jets haven’t had talent.  The rosters sucked and the coaching had been putrid 

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19 hours ago, JiFapono said:

I dont play Madden and have no idea how it applies to my post, so no offense taken, ❤️

This is a great post and you're right, in some cases and in others, you're ignoring factors just like PorP so I wont repeat myself but instead, I'll simply ask you a question...

How many wins do you think the Jets have at the end of 22?

 

At best I see 6 wins, I've already seen all I need of Zach. 

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19 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

I've been a Jets fan since 1966 and that doesn't make me an eternal pessimist about the team in general and an annual pessimist without reason.  There was cause for pessimism from 2016-2021, particularly in the Gase years of 2019-20. 2021 was obviously going to involve growing pains.  This year will have some growing pains as well, but the roster is better than it has been in 6-7 years, but this time with some youth.  I find it hard to think you are not pulling 2-4 wins out of your butt just to say "I told you so" after the season and if they exceed that you'll say the team stepped up. I'm just so tired of the Greenberg/Benigno self loathing Jets fan act.  It paints the rest of us in such a bad light.  This type is like the Eeyore of football fans and it's ridiculous.  It's a game.  Enjoy it. Life is too short.

What exactly has there been to enjoy? Off seasons of empty hype, followed by just awful inept football? Really, what makes Jets fans look bad is this team. 

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45 minutes ago, Dreams said:

At best I see 6 wins, I've already seen all I need of Zach. 

You're talking about seeing Zach last season.. not during ota's right? 

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48 minutes ago, Dreams said:

What exactly has there been to enjoy? Off seasons of empty hype, followed by just awful inept football? Really, what makes Jets fans look bad is this team. 

If you’re 20ish or younger nothing.  
Fans don’t look bad when their team plays poorly

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Predicted to win 3 games? This is excellent news because of how incorrect these guys so often are. It is almost not believable how so many "experts" predict the Jets to be worse than other teams who have been recently bad (like us) but have far less stability. Can someone honestly say that the Jaguars are better than the Jets after we beat them last season head to head? How much did Urban Myers and coaching staff's multiple embarassments set back Lawrence and that entire team?  The Bears? New coach, did very little to support Fields who was injured and looked worse than Zach and Lawrence. The Lions? What exactly have they done that has put them significantly ahead of us. Seattle and Drew Lock? The Panthers with Sam/Baker? The Giants and Jones? Do the 49ers know that Trey Lance is ready when they are hanging on to Garapalo and Lance couldnt unseat Jimmy G when he had the opportunity? Miami with a rocky firing of their HC who claimed racism, Tua not taking significant steps foward, and now with a rookie HC? The Falcons with Marcus Mariotta? These teams are better than a team (our Jets) that showed growth in the second half of the season with an unheard of amount of injuries? With a depleated roster the Jets should have beat Tampa, and one or both of the Miami games. Lets just take the significant injuries last season, are we better with Becton? Corey Davis? Elijah Moore? Jeez how about we were literally signing safeties on Tuesday and they started on Sunday. Even before adding this years draft class and FAs that seem to be praised universally, we are predicted to win only 3 games? Did LeFluer not give hope the second half of the year? Did you see the way the team responded to Saleh on the TV monitor in the locker room after the Jags win? The Jets had zero off field drama in year one and the system in place for year two with the same coaching staff. It almost seems not believable and just cliche bait that experts would predict us to be so bad. 

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12 hours ago, jgb said:

It just feels that way because they are more important and it's easier for us to remember specific division games years later. Non-division games feature more upsets and the difference in margin of victory in division v. non-division games is not statistically-significant (0.1 points).

*****

In all, the average margin of victory goes from 11.6 points in divisional games to a whopping 11.7 points in contests between teams who don’t play in the same division. 

It’s safe to let this idea go [that division games are closer]. Familiarity might breed contempt, but it doesn’t produce tighter football scores.

http://grantland.com/features/upon-initial-review-week-3/

*****

When two teams play, how often does the team with the better overall record that season actually win that specific game?

Since 1995, discounting games in which the teams end the year with the same record, the answer is 72.7 percent of the time. However, looking only at division games, the answer is 74.1 percent of the time. Upsets are actually less frequent during division games.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=3572409

 

Its fine, but you are digressing. All I was really saying in my op is that its silly to say I am a homer because I was suggesting the Jets will win x2 division games this year. The Jets are a much better team (on paper) and while the Bills are still tops in the AFCE, there is no reason to think that the Fins and Pats will sweep the Jets this year. There just isn't. 

None of these stats account for games that were close for the first 3+ quarters and ended up out of reach late in the game. 11.7 points is statistically a whopping difference but in reality is the difference between one or two plays- a turnover and a score- vs. the other team scoring (14pt swing), etc. Just saying. Don't overanalyze. You know I'm right. You know its absurd to assume the Jets won't win a division game this year. It just is. Who are you trying to convince and why? You know division games have a different feel, intensity and degree of importance (even if they shouldn't or if the players won't admit it). Some of it is pride. Some of it is simple competitiveness. When you look at the standings and you see your opposition ahead of you by one, two wins. 

If the Jets don't win AT LEAST one division game this year it will be due to something drastic (I think they will win at least two). A devastating injury or injuries, suspension(s), trade that strengthens the opposing team, some insane stroke of luck for the opposition or terrible play call(s) for the Jets. Something monumental has to happen for them to lose all 6 of those games.       

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28 minutes ago, PorP said:

You're talking about seeing Zach last season.. not during ota's right? 

Don't give a sh*t about ota's, my eyes don't lie, only my heart does. 

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1 hour ago, PepPep said:

Its fine, but you are digressing.

I was responding to a statement in your post that I disagreed with. It wasn't a comment on whatever broader point you were making nor was it an assault on your character. I disagreed with one point and I stated my case and supported it with data. That's the precise opposite of digressing. 

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

 

All I was really saying in my op is that its silly to say I am a homer because I was suggesting the Jets will win x2 division games this year. The Jets are a much better team (on paper) and while the Bills are still tops in the AFCE, there is no reason to think that the Fins and Pats will sweep the Jets this year. There just isn't. 

Wasn't commenting on this part of your point.

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

None of these stats account for games that were close for the first 3+ quarters and ended up out of reach late in the game.

Way to move the goalposts. If you want to support that claim, let's see some data.

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

 

11.7 points is statistically a whopping difference but in reality is the difference between one or two plays- a turnover and a score- vs. the other team scoring (14pt swing), etc.

You're misreading the data and my comment. I said the delta between division and non-division point differential is not statistically-significant (11.6 to 11.7, respectively, or 0.1 points).

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

 

Just saying. Don't overanalyze. You know I'm right.

If you say so. Now try to convince someone else.

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

 

You know its absurd to assume the Jets won't win a division game this year.

I didn't make any comment or prediction on this point so if you want to debate with someone, you should go find someone who actually holds the view you disagree with.

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

 

It just is. Who are you trying to convince and why?

Truth requires no motivation.

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

 

You know division games have a different feel, intensity and degree of importance (even if they shouldn't or if the players won't admit it). Some of it is pride. Some of it is simple competitiveness. When you look at the standings and you see your opposition ahead of you by one, two wins. 

This is not the point you were making nor is it the one that I was refuting. It is subjective and certainly many fans agree with you. But the fact remains that your original assertion that division games are closer contests is demonstrably not true.

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

If the Jets don't win AT LEAST one division game this year it will be due to something drastic (I think they will win at least two). A devastating injury or injuries, suspension(s), trade that strengthens the opposing team, some insane stroke of luck for the opposition or terrible play call(s) for the Jets. Something monumental has to happen for them to lose all 6 of those games.       

Or they just might suck again. That's another possibility.

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2 minutes ago, jgb said:

I was responding to a statement in your post that I disagreed with. It wasn't a comment on whatever broader point you were making. That's the precise opposite of digressing. 

Wasn't commenting on this part of your point.

Way to move the goalposts. If you want to support that claim, lets see some data.

You're misreading the data and my comment. I said the delta between division and non-division point differential is not statistically-significant (11.6 to 11.7, respectively, or 0.1 points).

If you say so. Now try to convince someone else.

I didn't make any comment or prediction on this point so if you want to debate with someone, you should go find someone who actually holds the view you disagree with.

Truth requires no motivation.

This is not the point you were making nor is it the one that I was refuting. It is subjective and certainly many fans agree with you. 

Or they just might suck again. That's another possibility.

In reading your responses, it becomes apparent that PepPep is suffering from the same homer disease that was on display here throughout the Sam years. Moving the goal posts, changing the narrative, twisting stats and reinventing all the obvious data that was showing Sam was not a FQB. History repeats itself.   

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2 minutes ago, Dreams said:

In reading your responses, it becomes apparent that PepPep is suffering from the same homer disease that was on display here throughout the Sam years. Moving the goal posts, changing the narrative, twisting stats and reinventing all the obvious data that was showing Sam was not a FQB. History repeats itself.   

Best Friends Friend GIF by PermissionIO

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14 minutes ago, jgb said:

I was responding to a statement in your post that I disagreed with. It wasn't a comment on whatever broader point you were making nor was it an assault on your character. I disagreed with one point and I stated my case and supported it with data. That's the precise opposite of digressing. 

Wasn't commenting on this part of your point.

Way to move the goalposts. If you want to support that claim, let's see some data.

You're misreading the data and my comment. I said the delta between division and non-division point differential is not statistically-significant (11.6 to 11.7, respectively, or 0.1 points).

If you say so. Now try to convince someone else.

I didn't make any comment or prediction on this point so if you want to debate with someone, you should go find someone who actually holds the view you disagree with.

Truth requires no motivation.

This is not the point you were making nor is it the one that I was refuting. It is subjective and certainly many fans agree with you. But the fact remains that your original assertion that division games are closer contests is demonstrably not true.

Or they just might suck again. That's another possibility.

Only commenting on the 3rd/4th quarter data and nothing else!!!

I think after the last blowout we had,  every game after went into the 4th as a single possession game except the saints which was still a single digit differential (8 out 9 points I think? )

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Nfl media by in large is terrible in judging new situations. They can predict status quo ok, but when do things ever stay the same in this league? Teams regress, teams get better...and morons like Rank are always behind the learning curve. BS articles like this is the NFL content machine stoking the fire to make people talk about them until real stuff starts happening. Just ignore it. If it's pissing you off, it's supposed to. The love isn't coming until they see wins, period. 

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3 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

So then you disagree with the article as well?  weird

I should have added that "if" they get to 6 wins, it will be flacco that does it.  

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

Or they just might suck again. That's another possibility.

Anything is possible. I'm really not trying to get into a debate to score points. You won't see me breaking down every sentence you write and providing some sort of counter-point. I don't care enough about being right. Everybody has opinions. Don't need an endless list of data and stats to back up my belief that the Jets will be better than many think they will. 

But it just seems silly that there are fans out there who think THIS team isn't set up well to win at least one or two division games this year. That they will get swept by the Fins and Pats. Again, anything can happen but I just don't see it barring some unforeseen set of circumstances. 

And so SORRY that you pulled one line from my interaction with another poster and decided to engage. lol. deal.  

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1 hour ago, Dreams said:

In reading your responses, it becomes apparent that PepPep is suffering from the same homer disease that was on display here throughout the Sam years. Moving the goal posts, changing the narrative, twisting stats and reinventing all the obvious data that was showing Sam was not a FQB. History repeats itself.   

Fair enough. Quick question. Do you think the Jets will win a division game this year? or go 0-6 against the Pats, Fins, and Bills. Thats what this is all about, really. I guess if you think they will, you must be a homer. Even though they won at least one prior to 2020 every single year for like a decade. And the aforementioned non-franchise bust QB Darnold was the QB in 2019 when they won two of them. 

Stop acting like I'm predicting playoffs, the Lombardi trophy, pro bowls or superstardom for Zack or anything like that. Simply put. Will the Jets win at least one division game in 2022? Does me predicting that they win 2 make me a homer? I think not. 

Hater Dont Hate GIF by GIPHY News 

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2 hours ago, PepPep said:

Anything is possible. I'm really not trying to get into a debate to score points. You won't see me breaking down every sentence you write and providing some sort of counter-point. I don't care enough about being right. Everybody has opinions. Don't need an endless list of data and stats to back up my belief that the Jets will be better than many think they will. 

But it just seems silly that there are fans out there who think THIS team isn't set up well to win at least one or two division games this year. That they will get swept by the Fins and Pats. Again, anything can happen but I just don't see it barring some unforeseen set of circumstances. 

And so SORRY that you pulled one line from my interaction with another poster and decided to engage. lol. deal.  

Division games aren't closer than non-division games. That's not an opinion. I've showed it with data going back to 1983.

Everything else you wrote is irrelevant to the misstatement I was correcting.

Have a nice day. :)

 

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5 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

Gonna be nice to see us triple that prediction 

Good God man I hope you're right! 

It would be wonderful to be on that side of 500, too not finish last in our division..... and most importantly with our schedule,  that implies Zach took a major step and we may have found our FQB!

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1 hour ago, PepPep said:

Fair enough. Quick question. Do you think the Jets will win a division game this year? or go 0-6 against the Pats, Fins, and Bills. Thats what this is all about, really. I guess if you think they will, you must be a homer. Even though they won at least one prior to 2020 every single year for like a decade. And the aforementioned non-franchise bust QB Darnold was the QB in 2019 when they won two of them. 

Stop acting like I'm predicting playoffs, the Lombardi trophy, pro bowls or superstardom for Zack or anything like that. Simply put. Will the Jets win at least one division game in 2022? Does me predicting that they win 2 make me a homer? I think not. 

Hater Dont Hate GIF by GIPHY News 

Let me ask a question, who gives a sh*t if they win all their division games and nothing else, do they get some kind of trophy for that? You ramble on with no point and no clue, changing narratives as you go and arguing points that were never in debate and would prove nothing if they had been. It's like carrying on a conversation with a noise maker.  

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3 minutes ago, Dreams said:

Let me ask a question, who gives a sh*t if they win all their division games and nothing else, do they get some kind of trophy for that? You ramble on with no point and no clue, changing narratives as you go and arguing points that were never in debate and would prove nothing if they had been. It's like carrying on a conversation with a noise maker.  

I give a sh!t...

If we only won 2 games a year and they were both against the pats....

Well then just color me happy

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24 minutes ago, PorP said:

I give a sh!t...

If we only won 2 games a year and they were both against the pats....

Well then just color me happy

Well it looks like you're out of luck there as well, haven't beaten them in 3 years and they actually drafted a QB who can play so I don't know what to tell you. 

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2 minutes ago, Dreams said:

Well it looks like you're out of luck there as well, haven't beaten them in 3 years and they actually drafted a QB who can play so I don't know what to tell you. 

Your screen name should be dream crusher 😪

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38 minutes ago, PorP said:

I give a sh!t...

If we only won 2 games a year and they were both against the pats....

Well then just color me happy

Really? You'd be fine with being the 2nd crappiest team in the league as long as the Pats are the crappiest?

Hey, do you man, I guess.

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2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Really? You'd be fine with being the 2nd crappiest team in the league as long as the Pats are the crappiest?

Hey, do you man, I guess.

I mean I could explain humor and how is supposed to be obvious when the comments are outlandish...

But ya

I hate the pats

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2 minutes ago, PorP said:

I mean I could explain humor and how is supposed to be obvious when the comments are outlandish...

But ya

I hate the pats

Sorry but outlandish comments aren't really a tell for sarcasm around here. 

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18 minutes ago, PorP said:

I mean I could explain humor and how is supposed to be obvious when the comments are outlandish...

But ya

I hate the pats

Why wouldn't you, they are better in every single facet of being a professional football team, coaching, ownership, management and on field product than the Jets have ever been, that's just the truth of the matter.  

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7 minutes ago, Dreams said:

Why wouldn't you, they are better in every single facet of being a professional football team, coaching, ownership, management and on field product than the Jets have ever been, that's just the truth of the matter.  

Well... if your talking the last decade then I obviously concede..

But before that,  we were competitive with the pats most years.  From 2012 and before we may have been on the wrong side of the win loss column but not by a ton and the Jets were competing with em and capable of winning on any Sunday. 

But sure. Last decade has been some straight up ostrich head in the sand crap. 

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11 minutes ago, PorP said:

Well... if your talking the last decade then I obviously concede..

But before that,  we were competitive with the pats most years.  From 2012 and before we may have been on the wrong side of the win loss column but not by a ton and the Jets were competing with em and capable of winning on any Sunday. 

But sure. Last decade has been some straight up ostrich head in the sand crap. 

Wrap it up any way that makes you feel better but the Pats have had 11 AFC championship game wins, and 6 Super bowl wins, the Jets have had what one, one 12 win season?  

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On 7/6/2022 at 7:54 PM, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

I've been a Jets fan since 1966 and that doesn't make me an eternal pessimist about the team in general and an annual pessimist without reason.  There was cause for pessimism from 2016-2021, particularly in the Gase years of 2019-20. 2021 was obviously going to involve growing pains.  This year will have some growing pains as well, but the roster is better than it has been in 6-7 years, but this time with some youth.  I find it hard to think you are not pulling 2-4 wins out of your butt just to say "I told you so" after the season and if they exceed that you'll say the team stepped up. I'm just so tired of the Greenberg/Benigno self loathing Jets fan act.  It paints the rest of us in such a bad light.  This type is like the Eeyore of football fans and it's ridiculous.  It's a game.  Enjoy it. Life is too short.

I can't change what happens on the field. This is how I enjoy trash football. Mock it and all involved mercilessly.

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8 minutes ago, Dreams said:

Wrap it up any way that makes you feel better but the Pats have had 11 AFC championship game wins, and 6 Super bowl wins, the Jets have had what one, one 12 win season?  

Yeah but... the pig is ripe!

You're new here so I'll explain -- "the pig is ripe" is an annual thread started by some sunshiner about how this is finally the year the Pats will fade and the Jets will leapfrog them into dominance.

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