How concerned should fans be with the salary cap?

[More Cowbell]

I voted it's  overblown. We have seen a record breaking contract given out every season and these teams still manage to keep the teams core intact.  The only time I have seen a cap casualty get traded or waived, it is mostly players who when they go to that other team, they don't  make the impact everyone thought they would. 

[DonCorleone]

18 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

I voted for "doesn't matter" simply because it feels like the NFL can structure contracts in a way to create Dream Teams similar to the NBA.  Two years ago with Brady/Gronk in Tampa, and last year with guys like Von Miller going to the Rams...

Doesn't it feel as if some teams are perennially under the cap no matter who they sign and how many while others are in constant cap hell??

[#27TheDominator]

38 minutes ago, the Claw said:

I think we can all have our opinions on the most logical or wisest way to spend the cap, but to have real genuine concern over it is kind of pointless. It’s out of our control. 

So is who they draft, cut, sign as a free agent, hire as coach, etc.  

[PorP]

I couldn't answer.  The main question was about cap mattering to fans but all the options were about cap mattering to the team. 

I think cap is critical to the team and doesn't matter to fans.  Unless you're a rare fan that understands all the capnastics that can be played, then I don't think it should matter to a fan. 

[peebag]

It all boils down to the QB role.

There should be an cap exemption for that position.

[#27TheDominator]

8 minutes ago, PorP said:

I couldn't answer.  The main question was about cap mattering to fans but all the options were about cap mastering to the team. 

I think cap is critical to the team and doesn't matter to fans.  Unless you're a rare fan that understands all the capnastics that can be played, then I don't think it should matter to a fan. 

I don't think that fans that understand the cap are that rare.  Yes, there are nuances we don't all know, but it is a big part of signings.  Otherwise, you just sign the best FA every offseason and be done with it - though sometimes Mike Maccagnan uses that philosophy to stick us with Trumaine Johnson and CJ Mosley.  Pretty sure that @jason423 is a Jets fan and was a regular poster here and now he runs https://overthecap.com/  and is considered one of the main authorities on the salary cap.

[PorP]

19 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I don't think that fans that understand the cap are that rare.  Yes, there are nuances we don't all know, but it is a big part of signings.  Otherwise, you just sign the best FA every offseason and be done with it - though sometimes Mike Maccagnan uses that philosophy to stick us with Trumaine Johnson and CJ Mosley.  Pretty sure that @jason423 is a Jets fan and was a regular poster here and now he runs https://overthecap.com/  and is considered one of the main authorities on the salary cap.

Maybe man,  but i'd be real surprised.  I'd be surprised if most fans could tell you if you can exceed cap without looking it up let alone the ramifications for exceeding cap. 

Understanding 230M, how much we spent,  how much is left doesn't make an expert or even informed fan as it pertains to cap and the sausage making to get there.

Edit; note I said rare fan.  Not non existent 

[#27TheDominator]

17 minutes ago, PorP said:

Maybe man,  but i'd be real surprised.  I'd be surprised if most fans could tell you if you can exceed cap without looking it up let alone the ramifications for exceeding cap. 

Understanding 230M, how much we spent,  how much is left doesn't make an expert or even informed fan as it pertains to cap and the sausage making to get there.

Edit; note I said rare fan.  Not non existent 

I didn't say we were all experts.  Look at the "worst trades" thread.  Many of those moves were made based on cap implications.  The Jets traded Santana Moss because he wanted a huge deal.  They moved on from Abraham because he was refusing to play under the franchise tag.  Ryan Young was left unprotected in the expansion draft to get the Texans to select Glenn and Coleman to cut their money from the bloated cap Parcells left.  You don't have to be an expert to see how those things matter.

[jgb]

4 hours ago, peebag said:

It all boils down to the QB role.

There should be an cap exemption for that position.

It’s an interesting thought but if you exempt QB from cap, the gap between the teams with and without a FQB will grow even larger. Imagine having Rodgers or Mahomes outside the cap…

[PorP]

3 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

I didn't say we were all experts.  Look at the "worst trades" thread.  Many of those moves were made based on cap implications.  The Jets traded Santana Moss because he wanted a huge deal.  They moved on from Abraham because he was refusing to play under the franchise tag.  Ryan Young was left unprotected in the expansion draft to get the Texans to select Glenn and Coleman to cut their money from the bloated cap Parcells left.  You don't have to be an expert to see how those things matter.

I think we're in agreement right? 

Those are all the things I am also interested in.  I'm just smart enough about the cap to assume things like Trumaine,  leveon bad.... Conklin good... I really don't need to care about more. 

No where was i trying to suggest fans need to be cap or contracts experts.  I think this tracks exactly with my first post. 

[Barry McCockinner]

That cap space tho

[Barry McCockinner]

The new streaming sunday ticket deal is going to make all the fussing over cap space the last few years look even more foolish in retrospect.

[jgb]

5 hours ago, PorP said:

I couldn't answer.  The main question was about cap mattering to fans but all the options were about cap mattering to the team. 

I think cap is critical to the team and doesn't matter to fans.  Unless you're a rare fan that understands all the capnastics that can be played, then I don't think it should matter to a fan. 

Yes well the question is how much fan should care, that's directly tied to how important a fan believes it is to the team. The two concepts are not divisible.

[PorP]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yes well the question is how much fan should care, that's directly tied to how important a fan believes it is to the team. The two concepts are not divisible.

I guess I would disagree from the fan only perspective.

I get your point but think you missed mine.

I do not need to care about cap,  point to it as a success/failure or anything else. I'm only worried about the team.

I know cap influences the team but I trust JD to manage cap and contracts and produce an end product that I like. Because of that,  I have 0 concern for the cap as does the average fan. 

To support that... poll some folks in the parking lot at a tailgate and see how many even know the 2022 cap amount.  You'll find out very quickly fans care very little about cap. 

 

[Lith]

16 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

If you think about it, what Tannenbaum did was exactly what he was supposed to do.  Load up on FA talent with a QB on a rookie deal and Pro Bowl level talent on the OL and at CB.  The problem came with the tear down and rebuild engineered by Idzik who completely blew the draft in 2013 (Dee Milliner and Geno) and 2014 with the infamous Idzik 12 (Calvin Pryor, Jace Amaro).  Followed up by Macc, the team has still not recovered...

Agreed.  Sort of.  Tanny built a good team and then went all in and morgaged the future to get to the Super Bowl.  He had a four year window.  2008 was ruined by Favre's injury, 09 we went as far as we realistically could, Colts were just better.  2010 was the killer where I thought we had the better team but came out flat.  Then the 2011 team collapsed down the stretch.  When you have a good team, and you know you are close, go all in and worry about tomorrow then.

He fell short, but had we won one of those two AFCCG games, we might have had statues of him in front of the stadium.  The mistake he made in my mind was continuing to approach it the same way with a rookie QB as he had done the year earlier with an aging HOF QB. 

And not every team that goes for it and falls short will have a 10-12 year lean period.  That is unique to the Jets.  Most teams, with good management and a sound plan, can rebuild in a couple of years.  We are at 12 years and counting.  

[Biggs]

If you're going to suck it might as well be with low priced players. 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

It’s an interesting thought but if you exempt QB from cap, the gap between the teams with and without a FQB will grow even larger. Imagine having Rodgers or Mahomes outside the cap…

Agree but under the current set up you’re penalized for drafting a great QB.  Mahomes had to get paid it it’s a reason they had to move on from Hill.

[rangerous]

imo the salary cap is overblown as far as fans are concerned.  maybe some fans have an inside track and know what goes on when the money is discussed.  i sure don't.  the only time i even get a little concerned is when a really good player becomes a cap casualty or when complete losers like trumaine or wilky are signed to huge deals and then do nothing.  let the gm deal with this.  that's his job.

[UntouchableCrew]

I think it matters.

Clearly, teams like the Cowboys, Giants, etc. are paying the price this year, shedding real talent because they're up against it. I'm fairly confident the bill will come due for teams like the Saints and Rams.

I like Joe Douglas' approach to cap management.

That said, I think fans (particularly fans of bad teams like the Jets) probably think about it too much. Number one goal should be to improve the team. Nothing wrong with paying a lot for good players. Just don't pay a lot of guys who aren't gonna make a difference.

[UntouchableCrew]

15 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Agree but under the current set up you’re penalized for drafting a great QB.  Mahomes had to get paid it it’s a reason they had to move on from Hill.

As a Jets fan why does this bother you?

He's right -- in a league where there are usually about 8 legitimately great QBs at a time having them be "cap free" basically screws everyone else.

[slats]

42 minutes ago, Lith said:

Agreed.  Sort of.  Tanny built a good team and then went all in and morgaged the future to get to the Super Bowl.  He had a four year window.  2008 was ruined by Favre's injury, 09 we went as far as we realistically could, Colts were just better.  2010 was the killer where I thought we had the better team but came out flat.  Then the 2011 team collapsed down the stretch.  When you have a good team, and you know you are close, go all in and worry about tomorrow then.

He fell short, but had we won one of those two AFCCG games, we might have had statues of him in front of the stadium.  The mistake he made in my mind was continuing to approach it the same way with a rookie QB as he had done the year earlier with an aging HOF QB. 

And not every team that goes for it and falls short will have a 10-12 year lean period.  That is unique to the Jets.  Most teams, with good management and a sound plan, can rebuild in a couple of years.  We are at 12 years and counting.  

The problem with those Tanny teams is that they were extremely top heavy, and that got worse as he went along. So the loss of one or two players, and they were toast. He got close, though, it just wasn’t sustainable. Eventually you have to hit the reset button. The fact that he was poor at drafting didn’t help. He knew it, too, lol. I’m sure that’s why he was always happy to trade his picks away. 
 
If these last two-three drafts start working out, the Jets will be in the position of having a lot of talent under contract cheap. If Zach takes a leap forward, they’ll be in excellent position to start borrowing from the future for talent immediately. But again, this is why cap management matters. Not to line the owner’s pockets, but to have it in reserve when the time is right to put all of those fun math tricks to good use. 

[peekskill68]

42 minutes ago, Lith said:

Agreed.  Sort of.  Tanny built a good team and then went all in and morgaged the future to get to the Super Bowl.  He had a four year window.  2008 was ruined by Favre's injury, 09 we went as far as we realistically could, Colts were just better.  2010 was the killer where I thought we had the better team but came out flat.  Then the 2011 team collapsed down the stretch.  When you have a good team, and you know you are close, go all in and worry about tomorrow then.

He fell short, but had we won one of those two AFCCG games, we might have had statues of him in front of the stadium.  The mistake he made in my mind was continuing to approach it the same way with a rookie QB as he had done the year earlier with an aging HOF QB. 

And not every team that goes for it and falls short will have a 10-12 year lean period.  That is unique to the Jets.  Most teams, with good management and a sound plan, can rebuild in a couple of years.  We are at 12 years and counting.  

One could argue that if Idzik had even the slightest ability to assess and draft talent. his plan would have been ok.  He dumped some high priced players (Holmes, Cromartie, Revis, etc), and had enough left in cornerstones like Brick, Mangold, Harris, etc. to clean up and quickly rebuild.  He missed on so many picks (Geno...(cough)...Milliner...(cough)...Pryor) and the few he got right (namely Sheldon and Winters) were either often injured or head cases. 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Agree but under the current set up you’re penalized for drafting a great QB.  Mahomes had to get paid it it’s a reason they had to move on from Hill.

I wouldn't say penalized... paying a stud QB a fortune is better than not having one. I read an interesting sports economics article and it concluded Mahomes at $50M/year is one of the best bargains in sport. FQBs just matter that much. Crazy.

[slats]

27 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

One could argue that if Idzik had even the slightest ability to assess and draft talent. his plan would have been ok.  He dumped some high priced players (Holmes, Cromartie, Revis, etc), and had enough left in cornerstones like Brick, Mangold, Harris, etc. to clean up and quickly rebuild.  He missed on so many picks (Geno...(cough)...Milliner...(cough)...Pryor) and the few he got right (namely Sheldon and Winters) were either often injured or head cases. 

Idzik gets too much credit for having a plan. Tannenbaum built all of those contracts to have an out, Idzik just hit the button. Like Tanny, he couldn’t draft. Unlike Tanny, instead of trading his picks he spent them on bad players. 

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

I wouldn't say penalized... paying a stud QB a fortune is better than not having one. I read an interesting sports economics article and it concluded Mahomes at $50M/year is one of the best bargains in sport. FQBs just matter that much. Crazy.

You’ve mentioned that article before. If you have the link, I’d be interested to read it. 

[the Claw]

7 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

So is who they draft, cut, sign as a free agent, hire as coach, etc.  

exactly.

[jgb]

4 hours ago, slats said:

Idzik gets too much credit for having a plan. Tannenbaum built all of those contracts to have an out, Idzik just hit the button. Like Tanny, he couldn’t draft. Unlike Tanny, instead of trading his picks he spent them on bad players. 

You’ve mentioned that article before. If you have the link, I’d be interested to read it. 

Sure thing. Here is the link to the paper https://drive.google.com/file/d/11AP1sYP4Tc6ZlwvWCBqYnfBLSQskURcc/view

The author had this to say which I think it's a pretty nice overall summary of the conclusion of the analysis:

Upon running this regression, I find that while Team Total QBR and Non-QB Cap Spending both have positive and statistically significant effects on Wins, Team Total QBR's effect substantially exceeds that of Non-QB Cap Spending.

Edit: I realize now that the specific point about Mahomes was made in an article referencing/applying the analysis in the linked paper IIRC. I'll try to find it tomorrow.