The Rushing Defense that Everyone is Concerned About

[slats]

Felt this bullet point in the latest Cimini column deserved it’s own thread: 

Leak or no leak? The Jets allowed the fourth-most rushing yards last season (2,343) and lost their best run-stopping defensive lineman (Folorunso Fatukasi, team-leading 42.9% run stop win rate in 2021) in free agency, so it's fair to question the state of the run defense. Saleh said he's not worried, claiming the numbers got skewed by long runs. He said they actually finished in the "top half of the league" from an efficiency standpoint, based on analytics.

So we checked ... and he's right. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, they Jets ranked 13th in run-stopping success rate (61.2%) -- a stat that measures success based on the down-and-distance. Now the trick is reducing the number of explosive runs, because they can be game-changers. 

Second year in the system, major talent infusion on the DL and secondary, now with Kwon in the mix at LB, and maybe this run defense isn’t as frightening (in a bad way) as some folks fear. 
 
 

[Smashmouth]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

Felt this bullet point in the latest Cimini column deserved it’s own thread: 

Leak or no leak? The Jets allowed the fourth-most rushing yards last season (2,343) and lost their best run-stopping defensive lineman (Folorunso Fatukasi, team-leading 42.9% run stop win rate in 2021) in free agency, so it's fair to question the state of the run defense. Saleh said he's not worried, claiming the numbers got skewed by long runs. He said they actually finished in the "top half of the league" from an efficiency standpoint, based on analytics.

So we checked ... and he's right. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, they Jets ranked 13th in run-stopping success rate (61.2%) -- a stat that measures success based on the down-and-distance. Now the trick is reducing the number of explosive runs, because they can be game-changers. 

Second year in the system, major talent infusion on the DL and secondary, now with Kwon in the mix at LB, and maybe this run defense isn’t as frightening (in a bad way) as some folks fear. 
 
 

The entire defense got a face lift now we wait and see .

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

16 minutes ago, slats said:

Felt this bullet point in the latest Cimini column deserved it’s own thread: 

Leak or no leak? The Jets allowed the fourth-most rushing yards last season (2,343) and lost their best run-stopping defensive lineman (Folorunso Fatukasi, team-leading 42.9% run stop win rate in 2021) in free agency, so it's fair to question the state of the run defense. Saleh said he's not worried, claiming the numbers got skewed by long runs. He said they actually finished in the "top half of the league" from an efficiency standpoint, based on analytics.

So we checked ... and he's right. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, they Jets ranked 13th in run-stopping success rate (61.2%) -- a stat that measures success based on the down-and-distance. Now the trick is reducing the number of explosive runs, because they can be game-changers. 

Second year in the system, major talent infusion on the DL and secondary, now with Kwon in the mix at LB, and maybe this run defense isn’t as frightening (in a bad way) as some folks fear. 
 
 

Good post Slats.  I'm not quite buying it though.  By the time the Jets were stopping the run, they were in the 4th quarter down 2 TDs.  1 dimensional game at that point desperately trying to get the ball back against teams looking to run out the clock.

This is where stats need to be broken down further.  I'd love to see this by quarter and even opponent.

Data tells a story but can be cut so many ways to support narrative.  Disagree with Saleh if he thinks last year's running defense was anywhere close to good enough.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

Stopping the run is a mindset.  

It's not done with talent and scheme alone.  The players have to dig in, get dirty, and put in the work.

 

 

I'm optimistic on the defense.  We know there will be a pass rush and the secondary looks very strong.  

 

 

 

 

 

[32EBoozer]

30 minutes ago, slats said:

Felt this bullet point in the latest Cimini column deserved it’s own thread: 

Leak or no leak? The Jets allowed the fourth-most rushing yards last season (2,343) and lost their best run-stopping defensive lineman (Folorunso Fatukasi, team-leading 42.9% run stop win rate in 2021) in free agency, so it's fair to question the state of the run defense. Saleh said he's not worried, claiming the numbers got skewed by long runs. He said they actually finished in the "top half of the league" from an efficiency standpoint, based on analytics.

So we checked ... and he's right. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, they Jets ranked 13th in run-stopping success rate (61.2%) -- a stat that measures success based on the down-and-distance. Now the trick is reducing the number of explosive runs, because they can be game-changers. 

Second year in the system, major talent infusion on the DL and secondary, now with Kwon in the mix at LB, and maybe this run defense isn’t as frightening (in a bad way) as some folks fear. 
 
 

Great…… you’re destroying the narrative of half this board! Now, what are they going to complain about?

MB….. came into camp at a good weight

ZW….. looking as if it’s starting to come together

LB……. Kwon making an impact

Coaching……. PVO seems to be working

MILF… No Cougar sightings in Florian Park

JD……. Signs KA at JDs price, looking to sign Duane Brown at JDs price.

 

[T0mShane]

Except for the repeated untouched seventy yard runs, the run defense was middle of the pack. No need to worry. 

[Beerfish]

Just create turnovers, get sacks (sacks, not almost sacks) and don't give up points.

[section314]

14 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Except for the repeated untouched seventy yard runs, the run defense was middle of the pack. No need to worry. 

"Guy pitched a great game, 6 innings, only 3 hits, 4 runs. But two of the hits were 2 run HR's, both after walks." ?

[slats]

8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Except for the repeated untouched seventy yard runs, the run defense was middle of the pack. No need to worry. 

As mentioned in the OP…

I’ve expected Whitehead to be filling a lot of those gaps, but it seems that they have him and Joyner taking turns deep or in the box (wow, this post is getting sexier than I planned), and you have Alexander looking like he’s competing for reps from the first time he stepped on the field. Jermaine Johnson should at least be an asset setting edge. 
 
From the analytics perspective, it sounds like they had people in the right place, but they just didn’t have the right people. 

[T0mShane]

Just now, slats said:

As mentioned in the OP…

I’ve expected Whitehead to be filling a lot of those gaps, but it seems that they have him and Joyner taking turns deep or in the box (wow, this post is getting sexier than I planned), and you have Alexander looking like he’s competing for reps from the first time he stepped on the field. Jermaine Johnson should at least be an asset setting edge. 
 
From the analytics perspective, it sounds like they had people in the right place, but they just didn’t have the right people. 

I kid. I think one of the Jets many problems on defense last year was that they were relatively unathletic, particularly at LB and safety, which would account for five yard runs turning into 20 yard runs. IMO, LB is still bad, but the upgrades at safety should absolutely help.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

The run defense was on a historically bad run during the middle of the season on pace to give up the most rushing yards in NFL history.  

They ended up fourth worst.

You can see the improvement already! 

[Adoni Beast]

Watching us get bullied and steamrolled on national tv / streaming devices against Indy last season was one of the worst unit performances I’ve seen from this franchise…ever.

And that’s saying something.

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, Adoni Beast said:

Watching us get bullied and steamrolled on national tv / streaming devices against Indy last season was one of the worst unit performances I’ve seen from this franchise…ever.

And that’s saying something.

That was almost breathtaking. The Colts outright snatched Bob Saleh’s soul and fed it to him

[section314]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I kid. I think one of the Jets many problems on defense last year was that they were relatively unathletic, particularly at LB and safety, which would account for five yard runs turning into 20 yard runs. IMO, LB is still bad, but the upgrades at safety should absolutely help.

One other culprit for this......horrible tackling. That has to be addressed and has absolutely nothing to do with athletic ability. 

[ZachEY]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Now the trick is reducing the number of explosive runs, because they can be game-changers. 

Well what did they expect when they traded away multiple pro-bowl all-pro mascot-tackling certified dawg best-in-the-nayshun safety jamal adams?

[ZachEY]

16 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I kid. I think one of the Jets many problems on defense last year was that they were relatively unathletic, particularly at LB and safety, which would account for five yard runs turning into 20 yard runs. IMO, LB is still bad, but the upgrades at safety should absolutely help.

One of the things I like about how they're building is they're prioritizing the right spots via resource allocation, etc.  Linebacker, to me, seems like the easiest fix, and you weren't going to fix it all in a year - not with how bad this team was - so we'll add some talent there when we don't have to worry about chasing playmakers so hard.

[T0mShane]

11 minutes ago, section314 said:

One other culprit for this......horrible tackling. That has to be addressed and has absolutely nothing to do with athletic ability. 

Nania has an article listing the five (ten?) Jets most responsible for the bad run defense lasts season, and most of them are gone (Jarrad Davis, Sherrod Neasman, etc), and the holdovers are probably gone or pushed down the depth chart at this point. The only guy who sucked and is still going to see significant time is Rankins. 

[T0mShane]

6 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

One of the things I like about how they're building is they're prioritizing the right spots via resource allocation, etc.  Linebacker, to me, seems like the easiest fix, and you weren't going to fix it all in a year - not with how bad this team was - so we'll add some talent there when we don't have to worry about chasing playmakers so hard.

Definitely. I think they’re also waiting for Mosley’s contract to clear before the commit any money to LB. I expect them to suck against the run this year, and hopefully offset it by not being as bad against the pass.

[slats]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The only guy who sucked and is still going to see significant time is Rankins. 

With the depth the Jets have on the DL and Rankins’ price tag, it’s surprising that we don’t hear more about him being a potential cut. 

[freestater]

35 minutes ago, slats said:

they just didn’t have the right people. 

[derp]

8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Definitely. I think they’re also waiting for Mosley’s contract to clear before the commit any money to LB. I expect them to suck against the run this year, and hopefully offset it by not being as bad against the pass.

Based on the LB market this year and how it seems Alexander has looked as a late cheap signing you could make the argument that they can avoid committing money to LB and use the insane Mosley cap allocation at more important positions.

I think linebacker is a position where supply exceeds demand and it’s also hard to pick who translates from college on top of that. They were probably ahead of the curve with converting safeties but (thus far it seems) didn’t pick the right ones.

[Irish Jet]

29 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Watching us get bullied and steamrolled on national tv / streaming devices against Indy last season was one of the worst unit performances I’ve seen from this franchise…ever.

And that’s saying something.

Didn’t need to specify this franchise tbh. So bad.

[slats]

3 minutes ago, freestater said:

That guy’s doing a fine job. 

[Jimmy 2 Times]

Just now, derp said:

Based on the LB market this year and how it seems Alexander has looked as a late cheap signing you could make the argument that they can avoid committing money to LB and use the insane Mosley cap allocation at more important positions.

It's a good point.  Draft a linebacker on day 2. 

Use that money to extend Q or find a long term center.

I think Douglas will continue to use high picks on the offensive line so I'm not sure he extends Fant.  

[derp]

3 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

It's a good point.  Draft a linebacker on day 2. 

Use that money to extend Q or find a long term center.

I think Douglas will continue to use high picks on the offensive line so I'm not sure he extends Fant.  

It’s really hard to figure out where early draft capital goes next year. Lots of promising questions marks on this year’s team. Defensive line is the easiest one since I think it meshes with what the coach and GM want to do and I think they’ll consistently want a lot of depth there.

I hope they want to build an OL pipeline with mid round picks like Mitchell, Wilson would have to take a massive step forward this year for me to think it’s a good idea to get younger up front. Vets are hopefully a bridge to that.

They don’t necessarily need to add more at receiver but I think an X who can win as the lone receiver consistently could be good unless Mins makes a massive leap or they like Moore and or Wilson in that role - I just those two are more naturally interchangeable guys as slot/Z receivers.

[UntouchableCrew]

TBH as we get closer to the season I'm becoming less concerned about the defense and more concerned about the offense.

The potential for a big defensive jump seems there -- as does the potential Zach isn't dramatically improved and the offense sucks again.

[freestater]

17 minutes ago, slats said:

That guy’s doing a fine job. 

Thats why he looks so shocked at your slanderous allegation! 

No, I agree. Doing well, much better than we've enjoyed in forever. Loved this year's draft.

Now sign Brown. 

[Bowles Movement]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Except for the repeated untouched seventy yard runs, the run defense was middle of the pack. No need to worry. 

 

[GangGreened]

Don’t wanna hear this kind of stuff after seeing that defense last year. It was pretty much laughable. Ulbrich promising it “won’t happen again” after giving up 54 to the Pats, only to let opponents hang 45 in 2 of the next 3 games.

Defense needs to be better this year Rob, no excuses

[TuscanyTile2]

2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Good post Slats.  I'm not quite buying it though.  By the time the Jets were stopping the run, they were in the 4th quarter down 2 TDs.  1 dimensional game at that point desperately trying to get the ball back against teams looking to run out the clock.

This is where stats need to be broken down further.  I'd love to see this by quarter and even opponent.

Data tells a story but can be cut so many ways to support narrative.  Disagree with Saleh if he thinks last year's running defense was anywhere close to good enough.

This!  Stats can be deceiving.  And in this case, I guess Slats can be deceiving!

[Barry McCockinner]

I'll put the over/under at week 3 for this thread being bumped.

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, Adoni Beast said:

Watching us get bullied and steamrolled on national tv / streaming devices against Indy last season was one of the worst unit performances I’ve seen from this franchise…ever.

And that’s saying something.

There's a good chance something embarrassing is going to happen whenever the Jets are on national TV.

[T0mShane]

59 minutes ago, derp said:

Based on the LB market this year and how it seems Alexander has looked as a late cheap signing you could make the argument that they can avoid committing money to LB and use the insane Mosley cap allocation at more important positions.

I think linebacker is a position where supply exceeds demand and it’s also hard to pick who translates from college on top of that. They were probably ahead of the curve with converting safeties but (thus far it seems) didn’t pick the right ones.

I’ve been curious to see what Saleh does at LB because of how central they are to that Niners defense, but it seems like a minimal priority to upgrade the personnel here despite how underwhelming our guys are. I keep reading that the Niners can’t even run their offense in camp because their LB group has been overwhelmingly disruptive, and you’d think Saleh would want to—at least—bring in some young coin-flips at the position to start rebuilding there.

[T0mShane]

14 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'll put the over/under at week 3 for this thread being bumped.

Ravens followed by the Jacoby Brissett Browns is going to be a bloodbath for us unless the run defense has some secret magic they’ve yet to show

[Adoni Beast]

12 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

There's a good chance something embarrassing is going to happen whenever the Jets are on national TV.

Going back to MNF at home against Buffalo in…91? 92? I think…

The Halloween burning pumpkin game. Yeah us on National TV is typically embarrassing.