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If Wilson develops into prime Joe Flacco as a passer, are you satisfied?


HawkeyeJet
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3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Flacco started all 16 games in 9 out of his first 10 seasons.  

Zack already appears to be missing time in both his first two years.

And no, Flacco-level performance (61% comp rate, 22Td to 14 INT) is not good enough in the current NFL.  3,900 yards would be pretty decent tho.

Flacco is the kind of QB who gets to a Super Bowl more by luck of draft location, rather than his own skill driving things.

Without the Baltimore D, he never sniffs a Super Bowl on his own.  His job was to not screw it up, not to win it.

So no, I would say I'd expect better out of a #2 overall pick QB than I would from a mid-1st guy like Flacco who was never really a star at QB, just a guy managing games and trying not to lose.

I think what we have to keep in mind is that some of the greatest QB's in NFL history only won one SB some didn't win any at all. 

So would you be happy with a Dan Marino and no SB's or deal with mediocrity like say a Terry Bradshaw yet played clutch in the playoffs and SB while winning 4 . Lets face it we are never going to get a Tom Brady because IMHO there will never be a run like that again. As a normal NFL team over the next 10 years 320 chances to win 10 SB's its difficult enough even if you have a good to great football team over that span.

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1 minute ago, shawn306 said:

Or let’s ask this question. If Wilson had a career like Phillip Rivers and the Jets don’t win a Super Bowl in his time are you happy ?

It’s a retrospective analysis. With the benefit of hindsight I’d take a Dilfer with a ring over a Marino without. But it don’t work that way. Marino would give you the best chance to win a ring and 10 out of 10 would take him on that basis.

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18 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

This is a strawman (or “nonsense on stilts,” as you might say) - I’ve never once argued anything remotely close to this.

 

No, your argument was exactly how various HoFers struggled early, therefore we should expect Wilson to follow suit.   And ignore the vast majority of Dave Browns, Jamarcus Russells and Ryan Leafs who never figured it out. And in the case of Steve Young specifically, his career was unique in ways that isn't even possible to replicate in 2022. Want to pick one guy who's career defies almost any comparison (USFL star, understudy to Joe Montana), you managed to do it. 

 If you want to reframe it, or fix it it to clear things up....

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25 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

I think what we have to keep in mind is that some of the greatest QB's in NFL history only won one SB some didn't win any at all. 

So would you be happy with a Dan Marino and no SB's or deal with mediocrity like say a Terry Bradshaw yet played clutch in the playoffs and SB while winning 4 . Lets face it we are never going to get a Tom Brady because IMHO there will never be a run like that again. As a normal NFL team over the next 10 years 320 chances to win 10 SB's its difficult enough even if you have a good to great football team over that span.

I want the Jets, our Jets, to win a title.  Period, end stop.  

That is all that matters, no style points.

With that said, the odds of that go up the better our QB is.

And I don't believe, as of today, that Zach Wilson will ever be that kind of QB. 

"Generational" arm talent or not.

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I been watching this game a long time and I don't recall seeing many QB who could throw as effortlessly as Wilson especially for his size.  He seems to have the ability to make every throw as well and has touch.  I don't know the kid so no idea what he has between the ears but sounds like he has the desire but I do worry about his nerves.

No clue if he will ever put it together but if he does man watch out because with that 4.5 speed and that arm he could be deadly.  I do not believe you need an arm like that for success, I mean look what Montana did with an elbow the size of my ass but it sure does help.  Sucks we have to wait even more now to see what will happen.

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Just now, SickJetFan said:

I been watching this game a long time and I don't recall seeing many QB who could throw as effortlessly as Wilson especially for his size.  He seems to have the ability to make every throw as well and has touch.  I don't know the kid so no idea what he has between the ears but sounds like he has the desire but I do worry about his nerves.

No clue if he will ever put it together but if he does man watch out because with that 4.5 speed and that arm he could be deadly.  I do not believe you need an arm like that for success, I mean look what Montana did with an elbow the size of my ass but it sure does help.  Sucks we have to wait even more now to see what will happen.

I thought the same about Jamarcus Russell. 

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6 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

shame.  I didnt,  btw - Jamarcus Russell is 6ft6inch - he is a big dude

Watch the throw at 1:13.  He throws it at his own 31 and it's caught at about the 17 yard line.  A 52 yard pass with basically just a flick of the arm.  

 

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

Those who wish to base their hope on the few who had such a turnaround, need to at least acknowledge the vast, vast, vast numbers of those who didn’t (paging @Jetsfan80) and make some effort to tell us how our guy is more like the tiny population in the former category. “Some guys did a similar thing once,” is (I’m sorry, I tried to find a more polite way to phrase this) a trash ******* argument.

As I have pointed out to you and others before, I believe this is a flawed way of looking at it, at least statistically. 

What you are basically saying is that QBs who got off to bad starts and then went to be become awesome QBs are outliers. While this is true, this isn’t as helpful as you might think. The reason is that all awesome QBs are outliers. The vast majority of NFL QBs end up busting outright or being varying levels of meh. 

The relevant statistical question isn’t “what percentage of QBs who sucked in their first 13 starts go on to become great QBs?” That number, of course, must be low, since the percentage of all NFL QBs who go on to be great is low. 

Instead, the relevant question is - “Are the first 13 games of a QB’s career a significant predictor of future success or failure?” I am unaware of the answer to this question and would love to see a proper study of this, but I have long-suspected that the answer to this question is “No.”  Why? Because in addition to having guys who started badly and turned it around, you also have guys who started out strongly but ended up being disappointments (either because of injury or just their own regression). If you sit down and write down a list of all these people, the list is longer than you might think. And again, there aren’t that many great QBs overall, to being with. That’s the issue. 
 

three caveats to this:

1) I suspect that the results might be quite different based on whether you included guys who sat their rookie years. I suspect that rookie seasons are particularly unreliable predictors - both good and bad. 

2)  I only picked “13 games” because that is how many games Wilson has played. I’d love to do a similar analysis looking at the “first full season” and also control for whether a guy played as a rookie or not.

3) most guys fall somewhere between “terrible” and “great” and the results would depend greatly on how you chose to delineate those guys. 

All of this is to basically say that I would like to give Wilson something on the order of 25-40 starts, which would jive with what coaches like Chuck Knoll and Bill Parcells have said on the subject. 

 

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Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

Watch the throw at 1:13.  He throws it at his own 31 and it's caught at about the 17 yard line.  A 52 yard pass with basically just a flick of the arm.  

 

you did read the last 3 words right?

 

for his size

 

Jamal was 6.6 265 lbs

 

and apparently Jamal didnt have what it takes between the ears. Hindsight right?

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Just now, SickJetFan said:

you did read the last 3 words right?

for his size

Jamal was 6.6 265 lbs

and apparently Jamal didnt have what it takes between the ears. Hindsight right?

Your comment was "I been watching this game a long time and I don't recall seeing many QB who could throw as effortlessly as Wilson especially for his size".  The "especially for his size" piece of your comment seemed like an add on to your main point ("I don't recall seeing many QB who could throw as effortlessly as Wilson ")

 

Quote

and apparently Jamal didnt have what it takes between the ears. Hindsight right?

I don't even understand what point you're making here.  What does any of this have to do with throwing the football a long distance effortlessly?  And what are you referring to with "hindsight"?  That he wouldn't have been drafted #1 OA? 

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7 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Watch the throw at 1:13.  He throws it at his own 31 and it's caught at about the 17 yard line.  A 52 yard pass with basically just a flick of the arm.  

 

you guys remember the NFL draft phase where every team was looking to draft the 6.6 behemoth QBs?  That fell out of favor fast seems all of the top 10 now a days is 6.2 and smaller.

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1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Your comment was "I been watching this game a long time and I don't recall seeing many QB who could throw as effortlessly as Wilson especially for his size".  The "especially for his size" piece of your comment seemed like an add on to your main point ("I don't recall seeing many QB who could throw as effortlessly as Wilson ")

 

I don't even understand what point you're making here.  What does any of this have to do with throwing the football a long distance effortlessly?  And what are you referring to with "hindsight"?  That he wouldn't have been drafted #1 OA? 

who said anything about long distance?  you seem to not understand the concept of throwing effortlessly does not necessarily mean throwing a football 100 yards what good is that aside from circus act.

 

The "especially for his size" piece of your comment seemed like an add on to your main point ("I don't recall seeing many QB who could throw as effortlessly as Wilson ")

 

sorry you feel that way.  dunno what to tell you but it wasnt an add on....Will I get a D now?

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Just now, SickJetFan said:

who said anything about long distance?  you seem to not understand the concept of throwing effortlessly does not necessarily mean throwing a football 100 yards what good is that aside from circus act.

 

The "especially for his size" piece of your comment seemed like an add on to your main point ("I don't recall seeing many QB who could throw as effortlessly as Wilson ")

 

sorry you feel that way.  dunno what to tell you but it wasnt an add on....Will I get a D now?

The way to write that would be "...who could throw as effortlessly as Wilson at his size".

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4 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

who said anything about long distance?  you seem to not understand the concept of throwing effortlessly does not necessarily mean throwing a football 100 yards what good is that aside from circus act.

Huh?  You weren't referring to throwing for distance?  Just that he throws effortlessly?  That really makes no sense to me.

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Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

Huh?  You weren't referring to throwing for distance?!  Just that he throws effortlessly?  That really makes no sense to me.

just take one look at how Mike White throws a football - he has to put effort into every throw even 10/20 yarders but let me ask you a question.

 

Did your parents hang themselves when you were a child asking all these questions?

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2 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

just take one look at how Mike White throws a football - he has to put effort into every throw even 10/20 yarders but let me ask you a question.

Did your parents hang themselves when you were a child asking all these questions?

You're referring to 10 yard passes?  LMAO!

You win.  Zach throws an effortless 10 yard pass!  It's a sight to behold!

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1 hour ago, Bugg said:

No, your argument was exactly how various HoFers struggled early, therefore we should expect Wilson to follow suit.

Lol - no, it wasn’t. I challenge you to find a post where I made this argument. 
 

I haven’t written that various HOF QBs struggling early means that Wilson will be good (or that “we should expect” Wilson to be good), what I have said is that it leaves open the possibility that he could be good. Very different. 

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Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'm just so impressed with how effortlessly Zach throws 10 yard passes.  POTW!

are you twisting words now to try save some minuscule respect? I assume you played the game some and watched the game some being on this board and know what I mean but i guess you were wanna the kids who pee their pants when picked.

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5 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

are you twisting words now to try save some minuscule respect? I assume you played the game some and watched the game some being on this board and know what I mean but i guess you were wanna the kids who pee their pants when picked.

You've watched the game a long time and can't remember a QB of Zach's size (which isn't even small, btw) who threw the ball so effortlessly?  But you're not referring to distance.  So short passing is fine as long as it's effortless.  Then you refer to Mike White throwing a 10-20 yard pass (10 being the lower end of that range, which is why I brought it up).  

What exactly am I missing?   (Other than the embarrassing, childish insults)

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Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

You've watched the game a long time and can't remember a QB of Zach's size (which isn't even small, btw) who threw the ball so effortlessly?  But you're not referring to distance.  So short passing is fine as long as it's effortless.  Then you refer to Mike White throwing a 10-20 yard pass (10 being the lower end of that range, which is why I brought it up).  

What exactly am I missing?   (Other than the embarrassing childish insults)

i really have no idea what you are asking me anymore

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