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Boomer Thinks Zach's Performance in First Preseason Game "Troubling"...


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14 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Nonsense.   Mac was solid last year.  He had a 67.6 completion percentage 22 TD's, 13 INT's and a QBR of 92.5.  He had a very respectable 3800 yards roughly 220 plus per game.  He wasn't asked to do to much but he was excellent in terms of delivering what was required.  That doesn't suck for a rookie.  That's good QB play.  Now if he can't build on it and deliver more with more on his shoulders he will be rightfully expossed.  

But ceiling bro. Stop being such a smooth-brain who only focuses on performance.

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Just now, jgb said:

But ceiling bro. Stop being such a smooth-brain who only focuses on performance.

I can see the high ceiling argument for taking Zach ahead of Mac Jones.  The problem with that argument is Lance, Fields and Mills were all on the board and all 3 had at least as high a ceiling as Zach.  In the case of Fields and Mills we could have traded back and had a much better draft and gotten the higher ceiling prospect.  

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1 minute ago, jgb said:

I appreciate your perspective and that you shared it, we just have a totally different philosophy when it comes to QBs. I happen to think Mac will continue to get better. Hope the same for BYU (obviously), but if professional NFL evaluators get it right maybe 1/3 of the time with first round draft picks, why live or die based on these gentlemens’ evaluation of a players “floor” or “ceiling?”

I get that our guy can launch the ball in ways Mac can only dream of, but honestly, I don’t care once they suit up and we have actual NFL performance data. Let’s hope our dude can make a huge leap and prove the doubters wrong. I would love to do the Game of Thrones “shame” walk through JN if it means we (finally) have a FQB.

I've been critical of Mac but I dont think he regresses.  I think at the very least, Mac showed you what he will be in the NFL, which is obviously good enough to be a consistent playoff team and he will give you a similar output year over year with some outliers in either direction, possibly.  That said, I think his limitations just arent a good fit for where he plays ie; NE.  I just think come Dec/Jan, he's always going to struggle.

Ironically, the same QB coach that works with Anthony Richardson, works with Mac Jones, has since middle school.  Obviously he loves Mac but even he said, he was hoping he fell to Indy.  Apparently there was real interest there and he thinks he'd be a completely different player in a dome.  He also told me that the biggest adjustment for Mac last year was that he had an embarrassment of riches at Bama.  Everyone was always open.  His entire starting offense is in the NFL.  THE ENTIRE OFFENSE.  lmfao. So, I do think if they can get better pieces around him, he can go up and down with the team.

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Just now, Biggs said:

I can see the high ceiling argument for taking Zach ahead of Mac Jones.  The problem with that argument is Lance, Fields and Mills were all on the board and all 3 had at least as high a ceiling as Zach.  In the case of Fields and Mills we could have traded back and had a much better draft and gotten the higher ceiling prospect.  

I hear ya, but trading back requires a dance partner willing to return value. Could very well be that no other team wanted BYU badly enough to offer that value. If that was the case, and I were GM, I would’ve went for the #2 QB on my board anyway - Mac - pundits be damned.

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9 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I've been critical of Mac but I dont think he regresses.  I think at the very least, Mac showed you what he will be in the NFL, which is obviously good enough to be a consistent playoff team and he will give you a similar output year over year with some outliers in either direction, possibly.  That said, I think his limitations just arent a good fit for where he plays ie; NE.  I just think come Dec/Jan, he's always going to struggle.

Ironically, the same QB coach that works with Anthony Richardson, works with Mac Jones, has since middle school.  Obviously he loves Mac but even he said, he was hoping he fell to Indy.  Apparently there was real interest there and he thinks he'd be a completely different player in a dome.  He also told me that the biggest adjustment for Mac last year was that he had an embarrassment of riches at Bama.  Everyone was always open.  His entire starting offense is in the NFL.  THE ENTIRE OFFENSE.  lmfao. So, I do think if they can get better pieces around him, he can go up and down with the team.

Much of this resonates. Did you know Mac Jones never in his life played in a football game in cold weather? As in never before last year? He also had never seen snow before the BUF game. You probably did know that.

I will point out though that his weaponz in NE were not great. Both his outside receivers were UDFAs in bottom 30th percentile in speed. I posted an analysis that Mac actually outperformed and made his weaponz better last year. Cliff’s notes version is that he ranked higher in all relevant stats than his weaponz did in YAC. The 2021 Pats were not a case of a team pulling a QB along. I happen to think if Parker — with legitimate downfield speed — can stay healthy, we will see Mac push it a lot more.

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13 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Mostly agree it's a good take.  The problem is if he can't process at NFL speed it's not about smart or not smart.   Some people can keep their cool under pressure and make good decisions very quickly.  Some people who have very good judgement when forced to make a decision under pressure quickly panic.  

I fear that the problem with Wilson is he can’t kee his cool, but I hope I’m wrong.

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My evaluation ... super young kid learning on job, making mistakes ... there will.be a light goes on moment ... where he takes what the coaches are giving him, realizing that it's simply not enough ... and figures out how to make his talent work for him within the system, but making it his own.

Sky is the limit for him ... which I prefer to curb level height of Mr Fields and Mr Jones.

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2 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

My evaluation ... super young kid learning on job, making mistakes ... there will.be a light goes on moment ... where he takes what the coaches are giving him, realizing that it's simply not enough ... and figures out how to make his talent work for him within the system, but making it his own.

Sky is the limit for him ... which I prefer to curb level height of Mr Fields and Mr Jones.

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I can understand the perspective that Mac has a low ceiling, but why do you say that about Fields?

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I don’t think it’s fair that Zach’s fate is sealed that he will be a bad QB, but we ignore the fact that QBs like Mac Jones could indeed regress and have a bad year. Like nobody thinks Justin Fields and Tua all of a sudden is now good because they had a good performance yesterday in a preseason game, but Zach is trash because of one pick in limited action. If someone like Daniel Jones and Tua can get years to prove themselves than Zach should get more than 13 games and 3 passes in a preseason game.


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4 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I fear that the problem with Wilson is he can’t kee his cool, but I hope I’m wrong.

It’s processing speed. That’s what separates the hits from the busts when talking about first round draft picks, except for the rare few who are personality-failures (lazy, don’t GAF, etc). They all have a satisfactory-level of physical talent, and yes, some more than others.

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2 minutes ago, jgb said:

Much of this resonates. Did you know Mac Jones never in his life played in a football game in cold weather? As in never before last year? You also had never seen snow before. You probably did.

I will point out though that his weaponz in NE were not great. Both his outside receivers were UDFAs in bottom 30th percentile in speed. I posted an analysis that Mac actually outperformed and made his weaponz better last year. Cliff’s notes version is that he ranked higher in all relevant stats than his weaponz did in YAC. The 2021 Pats were not a case of a team pulling a QB along. I happen to think if Parker — with legitimate downfield speed — can stay healthy, we will see Mac push it downfield a lot more.

lol, yes, I knew that detail.

Nelson Agholor has more legit downfield speed than Parker, from what I can see what my eyes but I digress, you're point is still valid.  I think the bigger difference was the amount of separation in college vs. pros.  Again, that team was loaded, they were open every single route, by a wide margin and he had the best check down option the country in Najee Harris.  So we'll see how he does with a little stickier defenders on longer routes, if they're able to open it up.  The other factor, Josh McDaniel's...he was a clutch play caller.

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5 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

My evaluation ... super young kid learning on job, making mistakes ... there will.be a light goes on moment ... where he takes what the coaches are giving him, realizing that it's simply not enough ... and figures out how to make his talent work for him within the system, but making it his own.

Sky is the limit for him ... which I prefer to curb level height of Mr Fields and Mr Jones.

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This is great and I appreciate it but this is all feelings.  There is no evidence the sky is the limit.  lol 

 

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7 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

lol, yes, I knew that detail.

Nelson Agholor has more legit downfield speed than Parker, from what I can see what my eyes but I digress, you're point is still valid.  I think the bigger difference was the amount of separation in college vs. pros.  Again, that team was loaded, they were open every single route, by a wide margin and he had the best check down option the country in Najee Harris.  So we'll see how he does with a little stickier defenders on longer routes, if they're able to open it up.  The other factor, Josh McDaniel's...he was a clutch play caller.

All valid. It’s interesting, and I’m going to tap in @Jetsfan80 here, QBASE adjusted their model after recognizing they over-penalized college QBs who had great supporting casts. I think it was Watson’s success that prompted this tweak. It can both be true that a QB had an embarrassment of riches at the collegiate level but is also just good. That’s also an issue with over-weighting supporting cast at the pro-level: is the QB bad/good because the cast is bad/good, or are they both bad/good?

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16 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

My evaluation ... super young kid learning on job, making mistakes ... there will.be a light goes on moment ... where he takes what the coaches are giving him, realizing that it's simply not enough ... and figures out how to make his talent work for him within the system, but making it his own.

Sky is the limit for him ... which I prefer to curb level height of Mr Fields and Mr Jones.

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I agree.  When the season is over we will have a much better idea

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6 minutes ago, jgb said:

All valid. It’s interesting, and I’m going to tap in @Jetsfan80 here, QBASE adjusted their model after recognizing they over-penalized college QBs who had great supporting casts. I think it was Watson’s success that prompted this tweak. It can both be true that a QB had an embarrassment of riches at the collegiate level but is also just good. That’s also an issue with over-weighting supporting cast at the pro-level: is the QB bad/good because the cast is bad/good, or are they both bad/good?

hahaha  80 and I have battled over QBASE simply because of how they measured surrounding talent and SOS.  So terribly subjective and not based in reality.   So I'd love to hear how they've adjusted because I remember specifically this conversation coming up as it pertains to Mayfield, in which QBASE displayed extreme inconsistencies in their collected "data" vs. the other prospects in that draft.  lol  But yes, sure ofcourse some guys are both good and have an embarrassment of riches ie; Joe Burrow. 

Regards to weaponz at the NFL level, I think in some cases, you have guys who can rise above it but in most, they need weaponz.  NFL defenders are very different than college.   You just see way to many cases of meh play get accelerated by proper surrounding of weapons, hell, just look at Brady.  Dude made JAGs house hold names and everyone better but when had Moss and Welker, he was record breaking,

 

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So according to ZW die-hards, MW vs Cincy was a “flash in the pan”
Yet Zach’s flash in the pan was a preseason performance vs GB and they still swear he’s Mormon Mahomes
 
Clearly you must be mike whites girlfriend... did you not watch the Bucs game or the Tennesee game ?

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28 minutes ago, Asymmetrical said:

I largely like what Douglas has done but it does seem like he got caught up in the draft industrial complex hype about Wilson. Like, why does it matter that he can do cool side arm throws?

I don’t blame JD even if the QB whiffs — you gotta take your shots. But I do believe he should’ve hedged that pick — either last off season or this — with a veteran who has some modicum of theoretical upside, as I clamored for Macc to do by bringing in Tannehill after Darnold’s first year — to many boos and catcalls — “you’re a Darnold hater, you just want him to fail,” etc. etc. I mean I don’t want my house to burn down but I have insurance…

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4 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Looked terrible so far and look at his supporting cast .. Chicago will put this kid out of the league.

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But wouldn’t that also disqualify BYU from a high ceiling? Usually “ceiling” is discussed in context of physical ability.

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1 hour ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

I haven't weighed in on this ZW thread.  Here's my thinking about his performance in that first preseason game.  First, he has read all the negativity about his performances thus far and he's no different than any of us...he's trying too hard to please and turn around this negativity.  That bonehead INT and the play where he got hurt and instead of sliding or running out of bounds he took the ball up field.  In both cases, bad decisions trying to make chicken soup out of chicken sh*t.  There is no doubt the kid has play making abilities...he just needs to make smart decisions and not get caught up in all the media distractions...that's my opinion anyway.  

Not sure all the reps in the world change a QB who makes bad decisions in game situations. 

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13 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Clearly you must be mike whites girlfriend... did you not watch the Bucs game or the Tennesee game ?

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LOL

I saw Wilson air mail a throw to a wide open Corey Davis that would have ended the game vs TEN

instead the game went to OT and the Jets got bailed out because the Titans kicker choked 

And Wilson cost the team the Tampa game because he just had to be the hero

His other 2 NFL wins are vs the Texans and Jags

And Wilson did next to nothing in the Texans game other than turn and hand the ball off

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8 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

hahaha  80 and I have battled over QBASE simply because of how they measured surrounding talent and SOS.  So terribly subjective and not based in reality.   So I'd love to hear how they've adjusted because I remember specifically this conversation coming up as it pertains to Mayfield, in which QBASE displayed extreme inconsistencies in their collected "data" vs. the other prospects in that draft.  lol  But yes, sure ofcourse some guys are both good and have an embarrassment of riches ie; Joe Burrow. 

Regards to weaponz at the NFL level, I think in some cases, you have guys who can rise above it but in most, they need weaponz.  NFL defenders are very different than college.   You just see way to many cases of meh play get accelerated by proper surrounding of weapons, hell, just look at Brady.  Dude made JAGs house hold names and everyone better but when had Moss and Welker, he was record breaking,

 

Agree that cast can absolutely impact QB play, I don’t however believe it can turn the bottom-barrel QBs into FQBs.

Also agree that QBASE — or any model currently in existence — is not perfect. It just highlights yet again that QB is the hardest position is sport to evaluate because it’s just so damn mental. Which is why I basically throw away all the pre-draft stuff once these guys are in the league and judge QBs on their NFL performance. It’s true that this “model” (term used generously) also has its misses — such as Josh Allen — but boy does it avoid wasting time waiting on a lot of busts who just suck.

 

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35 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

I agree.  When the season is over we will have a much better idea

More data always gives a better idea, but the relevant question is how much is enough to cut bait with reasonable confidence? Some can never let go of hope…

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LOL
I saw Wilson air mail a throw to a wide open Corey Davis that would have ended the game vs TEN
instead the game went to OT and the Jets got bailed out because the Titans kicker choked 
And Wilson cost the team the Tampa game because he just had to be the hero
His other 2 NFL wins are vs the Texans and Jags
And Wilson did next to nothing in the Texans game other than turn and hand the ball off
Wow I was wrong .. your Bart Scott lol ... Wilson and Berrios alone nearly won that Bucs game .. Defense was horrible as usual and there were zero weapons on offense .. but I enjoyed the revisionist history lesson.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

I don’t blame JD even if the QB whiffs — you gotta take your shots. But I do believe he should’ve hedged that pick — either last off season or this — with a veteran who has some modicum of theoretical upside, as I clamored for Macc to do by bringing in Tannehill after Darnold’s first year — to many boos and catcalls — “you’re a Darnold hater, you just want him to fail,” etc. etc. I mean I don’t want my house to burn down but I have insurance…

 

Totally. Drafting qbs is basically divination and whiffing happens. 

 

It'll be interesting to see how Flacco does, there's not really the upside that you're talking about but I think there's a chance that the offense performs well enough.

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5 hours ago, jgb said:

-Steelers - bring in vets and draft new guys same time.

-Packers drafted a first rounder with a HOF still playing great ball. They’ve done this twice, remember Rodgers sat for years.

-Niners bringing in vets and keep swinging in draft at the same time until they hit (maybe they have, maybe they haven’t)

-Chiefs: swung on Mahomes with Alex Smith  making pro bowls for them

-Pats kept drafting QBs high even with peak Brady, gave Cam Newton a shot as a FA, took a swing on Mac even with Cam as nominal starter.

All the teams you list are taking multiple and varied swings at QB, even in cases when they already have one playing great. None of them seem worried about “preserving the starters’ confidence” by keeping the competition non-threatening. No wonder they hit more often, they’re buying more lotto tickets.

And we have whiffed at qb literally every draft pick since Chad 22 years ago. And he barely can be considered a hit

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2 hours ago, Biggs said:

I can see the high ceiling argument for taking Zach ahead of Mac Jones.  The problem with that argument is Lance, Fields and Mills were all on the board and all 3 had at least as high a ceiling as Zach.  In the case of Fields and Mills we could have traded back and had a much better draft and gotten the higher ceiling prospect.  

Chris Simms has lost all credibility.  Rated Wilson ahead of a half dozen better qbs

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9 minutes ago, Dwight Englewood said:

We are not supposed to focus on performance? Oh right we are the jets

Performance is always “the goal for next season.” The problem is, like Annie’s tomorrow, “next season” is always a year away…

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13 minutes ago, munchmemory said:

Performance pales in comparison to players being "good kids".   Right @jgb?

The irony is we don’t really know these guys. Deshaun Watson was basically a living saint in Houston — charitable, giving away turkeys to the homeless at thanksgiving, etc. Publicly much “nicer” than a guy like Darnold whose great claim to being a good kid is that he didn’t complain in the press that he plays for a sh*tty team…

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Just now, jgb said:

The irony is we don’t really know these guys. Deshaun Watson was basically a living saint in Houston — charitable, giving away turkeys to the homeless at thanksgiving, etc. Publicly much “nicer” than a guy like Darnold whose great claim to being a good kid is that he doesn’t complain that he plays for a sh*tty team…

I'll never forget Rex on TV with a newly drafted Sanchez.  He must have said "fine young man" 20 times.  All the talk about players being "good", etc. is media/team fluff.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

Agree that cast can absolutely impact QB play, I don’t however believe it can turn the bottom-barrel QBs into FQBs.

Also agree that QBASE — or any model currently in existence — is not perfect. It just highlights yet again that QB is the hardest position is sport to evaluate because it’s just so damn mental. Which is why I basically throw away all the pre-draft stuff once these guys are in the league and judge QBs on their NFL performance. It’s true that this “model” (term used generously) also has its misses — such as Josh Allen — but boy does it avoid wasting time waiting on a lot of busts who just suck.

 


Correct.  That’s what QBASE does best:  Expose the busts-in-waiting who are being graded highly by the so-called experts. 

It is NOT particularly great at nailing the “hits”.  Guys they score highly are basically a coin flip success rate at best.  Though I defy anyone to find an analyst or system out there that ranked Mahomes the top QB in 2017.  QBASE did….

And yes, @JiFapono, Mayfield scored ridiculously high.  But has he busted yet?  I dunno, depends on your definition of a “bust”.  I think he’s about to have a nice season in Carolina, despite how punchable his face is… 

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