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Zach isn't the most important thing; getting to the QB is


Maxman
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Interesting thread.

For me the reason that pass rush is more important is that this D needs it to be successful.  I think that solid staffs can fail to develop guys like Zach Wilson, high ceiling guys with limited college experience.  If these guys can't develop a pass rush and a solid D with a clean slate, then I do not believe that they belong running an NFL franchise.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

He played like a low-end game manager. Okay, I guess technically an improvement over the front end of the season but not what you want from a 2nd overall. I’m actually fine with a ton of picks from a young QB if they also have a lot of yards/TDs. Jets need to let him be him this year. We brought him in for his ceiling so they need to remove the lid. If they try to pigeonhole him into a game manager role they should’ve just brought in a Teddy Bridewater and used that pick somewhere else.

Yup.  Even Peyton Manning threw 28 picks as a rookie.  But he also threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 26 TDs.  

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9 hours ago, Maxman said:

Sure, Zach Wilson is the story of the year. Yes. We have to find out what he is all about. I am not debating that.

Looking at the roster though, the most important thing is that they get to the QB.  4 linebackers on the roster right now. A defensive line that is being paid a lot of money. Tons of edge depth to keep guys fresh with this rotation.

If they don't get to the QB often, this defense is going to be terrible again. The secondary is improved but everything is revolving around disrupting the QB.

I hope they can make it happen. Stay healthy Lawson!

I think we're going to make significant strides against the pass. It's not a ground breaking prediction: this is the deepest group of EDGE rushers the Jets have had this century. These guys all flash talent and violence... they will be fun to watch. In addition to the edge group, Kwon Alexander + another year in the system for Mosley/Williams/Sherwood should lead to more efficient coverage at LB, their two starting CBs last year are now our top backups to an elite CB prospect and an above average free agent acquisition, and the S play can't be worse than it was last year. Improved coverage + improved speed/talent off the edge = more sacks. That's the good news. 

The bad news is that we're going to be awful against the run. We were bad last year despite Foley Fatukasi being one of the best run defending DTs in the NFL (played 53% of the defensive snaps, had the 4th highest run stop win rate among DTs at 43%) who is no longer with the team. They will replace his snaps with a combination of pass rush-first interior defensive lineman (Quinnen Williams, Sheldon Rankins, John Franklin-Myers, Solomon Thomas) and a somewhat ineffective space-eater in Nathan Shepherd. Quinnen is by far the best and most impactful run defender of the group, but asking for him to shoulder Foley's load plus his own as a play disruptor/pass rusher is a lot. 

Maybe we see less overall attempts/yardage if we're playing in competitive games, but I would bet we are among the worst in the league at YPC and 10+ yard runs, and we'll likely struggle against play-action. Having a poor run defense may not be detrimental, but hoping I'm wrong either way. 

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3 minutes ago, football guy said:

I think we're going to make significant strides against the pass. It's not a ground breaking prediction: this is the deepest group of EDGE rushers the Jets have had this century. These guys all flash talent and violence... they will be fun to watch. In addition to the edge group, Kwon Alexander + another year in the system for Mosley/Williams/Sherwood should lead to more efficient coverage at LB, their two starting CBs last year are now our top backups to an elite CB prospect and an above average free agent acquisition, and the S play can't be worse than it was last year. Improved coverage + improved speed/talent off the edge = more sacks. That's the good news. 

The bad news is that we're going to be awful against the run. We were bad last year despite Foley Fatukasi being one of the best run defending DTs in the NFL (played 53% of the defensive snaps, had the 4th highest run stop win rate among DTs at 43%) who is no longer with the team. They will replace his snaps with a combination of pass rush-first interior defensive lineman (Quinnen Williams, Sheldon Rankins, John Franklin-Myers, Solomon Thomas) and a somewhat ineffective space-eater in Nathan Shepherd. Quinnen is by far the best and most impactful run defender of the group, but asking for him to shoulder Foley's load plus his own as a play disruptor/pass rusher is a lot. 

Maybe we see less overall attempts/yardage if we're playing in competitive games, but I would bet we are among the worst in the league at YPC and 10+ yard runs, and we'll likely struggle against play-action. Having a poor run defense may not be detrimental, but hoping I'm wrong either way. 

It’s really, really possible the team is terrible against the run. I think they may be kind of feast or famine.

That works better when the team has a functional offense - complimentary football kind of. I think it’s why the SF teams a while back made such crazy strides with Garoppolo - that nudge to a degree of competence on offense let them lean on the run more and pass rush more with more neutral scripts. I realize that flies in the face of the OP.

The few things that give me hope are that I think: a) they want to stop run plays by being disruptive, and this team should be way more disruptive b) the team got worse at DT in terms of run stuffing but just so, so much better on the edge in pretty much every conceivable way c) they wanted to improve the secondary and particularly corner play to allow more resource allocation to the run game, which could quietly make a difference and d) they believe Whitehead can be a bit of a weapon in the run game.

I know they're smarter than me, so maybe that stuff is enough to get it done. There’s also a nontrivial chance they just tried to galaxy brain improving the team against the run, it does not work, and that gets them in some hot water.

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At least i can see that we are all fully in support of Zach as he embarks on his sophomore campaign  ... A year in which he sheds his cocoon and spreads his wings ... we are one unified curtain of breezy air ... pushing him towards the new heights he will one day reach. Unified, unrelenting support so strong ... Failure surely cowers beneath its strength. 

What a a sight to behold.

Edited by Dunnie
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Also think the team goes as the running backs go. Keep the team in good down and distance, take a little pressure off the QB, open up play action, make plays on short passes, keep the defense off the field, keep the game close.

It’d be great if Wilson makes the leap to the elite level this season but I think even his biggest fans don’t expect that. Need to move the offense somehow. Pass rush can’t really move the needle if the team’s in negative game scripts, they need to move the ball.

Think the run game on offense is what bridges supporting the QB and supporting the defense, and that’s why they went out and got Hall to pair with Carter. But they can also support Wilson in the passing game. Getting yards while keeping things easy on the QB would open up a lot.

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9 hours ago, Maxman said:

I have such a hard time being objective with this team. I am 100% a positive fan. I see the good and it takes a lot for me to give up on a player.

Robbie Anderson is one of the only good players that I was like get rid of this guy, I just didn't like his attittude.

Everyone else I see the positive in.

Now to actually try to answer your question, last year for Zach:

Cons

-Interceptions

-Short Game Accuracy

-Durability

Pros

-Didn't throw interceptions once they changed things up

-Big play ability

We will find out soon, the game looked too fast for him this year. I am thinking (my hope) is that they are able to ease into things and he learns when to be a gun slinger and when to play it safe. This offense is legit, guys are open. A big early test will be is if he can get over 60% completion %.  If he can't do that all bets are kind of off because every damn eligible receiver on the field this year can catch, backs, tight ends and receivers.

I am rooting for the kid, the Jets only have to get it right once.  :)

 

 

One thing that has become obvious to me lately is that Zach's lack of progress has a LOT to do with the coaching he got from LaFleur.

Some examples:

In Episode 2 of 1JD, LaFleur states on the record that he was a bad play caller the first 6 games not so coincidentally the games Zach was worst in.

Watchin Streveler and White this year and last it is obvious that LaFleur calls the game differently for White and Streveler than he does for Zach (and Flacco for that matter). He calls simpler more rhythm oriented more "West Coast" types of plays for Strev and White, but has a tendency IMO to run much more complicated plays when Zach is in there. It's more vertical but the plays are longer developing and require better reads.

I completely agree that the game looked too fast for him a large part of last year but at the same time I think LaFleur-maybe because he has a lot of confidence in Zach did not make the game easier for him with his play calling.

I get that we want to have Zach make plays down the field but we also know he is a bit jittery on his first possession. I think they need to start simpler, throw on early downs more often to let Zach get into the game and then get it more vertical

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46 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

"Sam Darnold was really young and inexperienced coming out of school he's basically a rookie!"

-- Jets fans entering Darnold's 3rd season

Sam was and remains a human.   Sam was a bust.  
 

JD should be fired for not scouring zoos.  Children’s sports movies have already proven this is a viable concept, so there is no excuse.  

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4 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Sam was and remains a human.   Sam was a bust.  
 

JD should be fired for not scouring zoos.  Children’s sports movies have already proven this is a viable concept, so there is no excuse.  

I'm not saying Darnold and Wilson are the same prospect.  What I am saying is that the old "[Insert QB] was less experienced in college and therefore has a better chance of shining in year 2" argument doesn't really fly.  Consistently, we've seen that lesser experienced college QB's struggle in the pros and have a much higher bust rate.

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51 minutes ago, football guy said:

I think we're going to make significant strides against the pass. It's not a ground breaking prediction: this is the deepest group of EDGE rushers the Jets have had this century. These guys all flash talent and violence... they will be fun to watch. In addition to the edge group, Kwon Alexander + another year in the system for Mosley/Williams/Sherwood should lead to more efficient coverage at LB, their two starting CBs last year are now our top backups to an elite CB prospect and an above average free agent acquisition, and the S play can't be worse than it was last year. Improved coverage + improved speed/talent off the edge = more sacks. That's the good news. 

The bad news is that we're going to be awful against the run. We were bad last year despite Foley Fatukasi being one of the best run defending DTs in the NFL (played 53% of the defensive snaps, had the 4th highest run stop win rate among DTs at 43%) who is no longer with the team. They will replace his snaps with a combination of pass rush-first interior defensive lineman (Quinnen Williams, Sheldon Rankins, John Franklin-Myers, Solomon Thomas) and a somewhat ineffective space-eater in Nathan Shepherd. Quinnen is by far the best and most impactful run defender of the group, but asking for him to shoulder Foley's load plus his own as a play disruptor/pass rusher is a lot. 

Maybe we see less overall attempts/yardage if we're playing in competitive games, but I would bet we are among the worst in the league at YPC and 10+ yard runs, and we'll likely struggle against play-action. Having a poor run defense may not be detrimental, but hoping I'm wrong either way. 

It's the perfect defense for a Peyton Manning led offense. Time will tell if it will work for a Zach Wilson led offense.

I know the numbers didn't work, but I really wish they kept Foley. He was fantastic against the run, and he's a fellow uconn husky!

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22 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

One thing that has become obvious to me lately is that Zach's lack of progress has a LOT to do with the coaching he got from LaFleur.

I've noticed the "Blame LaFleur" argument seems to be the new "Defense of Zach" meme here of late. :-k

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24 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

One thing that has become obvious to me lately is that Zach's lack of progress has a LOT to do with the coaching he got from LaFleur.

Some examples:

In Episode 2 of 1JD, LaFleur states on the record that he was a bad play caller the first 6 games not so coincidentally the games Zach was worst in.

Watchin Streveler and White this year and last it is obvious that LaFleur calls the game differently for White and Streveler than he does for Zach (and Flacco for that matter). He calls simpler more rhythm oriented more "West Coast" types of plays for Strev and White, but has a tendency IMO to run much more complicated plays when Zach is in there. It's more vertical but the plays are longer developing and require better reads.

I completely agree that the game looked too fast for him a large part of last year but at the same time I think LaFleur-maybe because he has a lot of confidence in Zach did not make the game easier for him with his play calling.

I get that we want to have Zach make plays down the field but we also know he is a bit jittery on his first possession. I think they need to start simpler, throw on early downs more often to let Zach get into the game and then get it more vertical

Have you seen Zach's short game? I think LaFluer is doing what we all always want our coordinators to do - customize the gameplans to the players. Zach probably has a higher completion percentage 10 yards down the field than he does to his screen passes. 

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1 minute ago, Warfish said:

I've noticed the "Blame LaFleur" argument seems to be the new "Defense of Zach" meme here of late. :-k

😂 - QTR 1 has not even started yet ... I'm praying that if there are struggles the most egregious causes are obvious. 

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27 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

One thing that has become obvious to me lately is that Zach's lack of progress has a LOT to do with the coaching he got from LaFleur.

Some examples:

In Episode 2 of 1JD, LaFleur states on the record that he was a bad play caller the first 6 games not so coincidentally the games Zach was worst in.

Watchin Streveler and White this year and last it is obvious that LaFleur calls the game differently for White and Streveler than he does for Zach (and Flacco for that matter). He calls simpler more rhythm oriented more "West Coast" types of plays for Strev and White, but has a tendency IMO to run much more complicated plays when Zach is in there. It's more vertical but the plays are longer developing and require better reads.

I completely agree that the game looked too fast for him a large part of last year but at the same time I think LaFleur-maybe because he has a lot of confidence in Zach did not make the game easier for him with his play calling.

I get that we want to have Zach make plays down the field but we also know he is a bit jittery on his first possession. I think they need to start simpler, throw on early downs more often to let Zach get into the game and then get it more vertical

I am fine if they start off really simple with Zach this year. Let him grown, build him up.

1st down interceptions bad. 3rd down interception on a deep ball, take that shot.

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41 minutes ago, derp said:

Also think the team goes as the running backs go. Keep the team in good down and distance, take a little pressure off the QB, open up play action, make plays on short passes, keep the defense off the field, keep the game close.

It’d be great if Wilson makes the leap to the elite level this season but I think even his biggest fans don’t expect that. Need to move the offense somehow. Pass rush can’t really move the needle if the team’s in negative game scripts, they need to move the ball.

Think the run game on offense is what bridges supporting the QB and supporting the defense, and that’s why they went out and got Hall to pair with Carter. But they can also support Wilson in the passing game. Getting yards while keeping things easy on the QB would open up a lot.

I think it is going to seem that way, but I think they will still pass to set up  the run.  I do not expect the running game to get going if they are unable to pass.  I expect the top 2 backs to be super involved in the passing game, so maybe it will be a bit more of both.

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42 minutes ago, derp said:

Also think the team goes as the running backs go. Keep the team in good down and distance, take a little pressure off the QB, open up play action, make plays on short passes, keep the defense off the field, keep the game close.

It’d be great if Wilson makes the leap to the elite level this season but I think even his biggest fans don’t expect that. Need to move the offense somehow. Pass rush can’t really move the needle if the team’s in negative game scripts, they need to move the ball.

Think the run game on offense is what bridges supporting the QB and supporting the defense, and that’s why they went out and got Hall to pair with Carter. But they can also support Wilson in the passing game. Getting yards while keeping things easy on the QB would open up a lot.

I agree on the running game, but also how many receiving yards do the backs have? They are set up nicely for that, so let's avoid negative plays and they have nice check down options.

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1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

Interesting thread.

For me the reason that pass rush is more important is that this D needs it to be successful.  I think that solid staffs can fail to develop guys like Zach Wilson, high ceiling guys with limited college experience.  If these guys can't develop a pass rush and a solid D with a clean slate, then I do not believe that they belong running an NFL franchise.

That is a really good point. I hadn't really taken it to the next level but yes. If they don't get to the QB, if this DLine isn't truly disruptive then this staff is in more trouble than Zach Wilson is.

I am still not sold on the defensive coordinator. Hopefully I am proven wrong but you don't normally give up the most points in the league and survive.

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7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I've noticed the "Blame LaFleur" argument seems to be the new "Defense of Zach" meme here of late. :-k

Its possible that Wilson sucks as well as LaFleur

Its possible that LaFleur sucks as a coach and is not teaching Wilson

Its possible that Wilson sucks as a prospect and LaFleur is actually a good coach.

 

I have not seen anything from LaFleur to make me think hes a good coach at all, that doesnt make for Wilson defense, as they are two separate topics IMO. For once it would be nice to hire a coaching staff with direct experience and proof of developing a good QB. It why when Reid was available we should have gone after him at all costs/expenses. Its why I preferred McCarthy over Gase although McCarthy has his own challenges.  If you have a staff who has done it before, it partially takes that question and unknown out of the equation. 

 

If ZW busts, do you let this same staff and GM pick and develop another high QB? I sure as hell don't, because LaFleur was in on the ZW selection, so if he can't develop the guy he selects, why let him select and develop another one?

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6 minutes ago, Maxman said:

That is a really good point. I hadn't really taken it to the next level but yes. If they don't get to the QB, if this DLine isn't truly disruptive then this staff is in more trouble than Zach Wilson is.

I am still not sold on the defensive coordinator. Hopefully I am proven wrong but you don't normally give up the most points in the league and survive.

Normally I'd agree with this.

The only thing keeping hope alive is comparing the starting defense from 2021 to 2022

  • Shaq Lawson -> Carl Lawson
  • Nasirildeen -> Kwon
  • Jarrad Davis -> Quincy
  • Bless Austin -> Sauce
  • Bryce Hall -> Reed
  • Guidry -> Carter II
  • Maye -> Whitehead

On paper, that is an insane improvement.  All but one of those seven starters from last year is off the roster and the last (Hall) is now a backup.

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11 hours ago, Maxman said:

Well to frame it out a little differently I guess what I am saying is Zach is the question that needs to be answered for the long term. But nothing is going to matter this year if they don't get to the QB. The way this roster is built, it is pressure or bust.

I agree,  We are not ready to win 38-35 type shootouts.  But if we can hold opponents in the 20s or below, we just might be able to make enough plays on offense to win some 24-21 type games. 

Last year, we were 3-2 when holding opponents to 24 or less.  1-11 when they scored more than 24.  Improving the defense can go a long way to improving the record. 

 

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24 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I think it is going to seem that way, but I think they will still pass to set up  the run.  I do not expect the running game to get going if they are unable to pass.  I expect the top 2 backs to be super involved in the passing game, so maybe it will be a bit more of both.

They may try to pass to set up the run, and it’s a passing league obviously. I think probably a function of teams not believing they can pass, so defenses will stack boxes and compress things until they show there’s an ability to beat that - which is what we’ve seen teams do to this offense for years.

Part of why I used running backs in the beginning instead of running game, I think they’ll be key in the passing game too.

I just think those guys need to function for everything else to work. I don’t think any team will truly be scared of the passing this year, best chance to threaten defenses and force some kind of adjustment is with the run.

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7 minutes ago, derp said:

They may try to pass to set up the run, and it’s a passing league obviously. I think probably a function of teams not believing they can pass, so defenses will stack boxes and compress things until they show there’s an ability to beat that - which is what we’ve seen teams do to this offense for years.

Part of why I used running backs in the beginning instead of running game, I think they’ll be key in the passing game too.

I just think those guys need to function for everything else to work. I don’t think any team will truly be scared of the passing this year, best chance to threaten defenses and force some kind of adjustment is with the run.

Yeah.  I think that was part of the move up for Hall.  A tough runner, but the home run speed should keep defenses honest.  A little bit of a passing attack should make that work.  Strangely, I have a decent amount of confidence in LaFleur making it work.  It still probably won't be pretty since we have 1/1 and 2/4 defenses in our division and I'm not sure we have the horses to overcome that.

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D-line is the strength of the defense, obviously.  A little light on depth at LB and in the secondary.  Lawson looks great off his injury.  My eyes popped out seeing Clemons closing speed.  QW poised for a big year.

Just, as always, pray for health. Prayers for good health (even avg health) have not been answered in a very long time.

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24 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Yeah.  I think that was part of the move up for Hall.  A tough runner, but the home run speed should keep defenses honest.  A little bit of a passing attack should make that work.  Strangely, I have a decent amount of confidence in LaFleur making it work.  It still probably won't be pretty since we have 1/1 and 2/4 defenses in our division and I'm not sure we have the horses to overcome that.

Hopefully there’s some kind of passing game spark. I think Moore is a stud who can attack any level of the field and catch in congested areas, but he’s not a ball winner so he’s reliant on an accurate quarterback. Wilson is a really good, loose athlete and maybe he helps a little. We’ll see if things click this year or later - I expect flashes more than consistent production but I’d love to be wrong. The tight ends should help too.

I think the offense just needs a bit of a pressure release valve to open things up and I’m not exactly sure where that comes from. The best bet to me is easy yards from the backs in the pass and run game - I’m not sure it happens, we’ll see.

I do think the pieces are nice overall, just needs a difference maker somewhere to have everything come together.

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