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Aside from WINS ... THE most important metric I will be keeping tabs on for Zach's progress.


Dunnie
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Just now, Dunnie said:

Time of Release to Target Depth .. this will tell me if he is stuck tracking only shallow or deep targets and also tell me if he is getting the ball out under the league average 2.7 seconds.  This combine with accuracy stats will tell me if the problem is Zach. I would be ECSTATIC if he falls into the zone I marked in green.  This will tell be the game is slowing down for him, he is seeing the field and is able to play effectively and responsibly. Look at the sh*ttiest QBs on this chart and where their throw depth to time of release was. (poor Geno)

uc?id=15x2aEMN_Rx-lqJY1OFYp5Yi4ur-NQIr0

 

Pic not working, but I'd be interested in seeing your chart.

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4 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Time of Release to Target Depth .. this will tell me if he is stuck tracking only shallow or deep targets and also tell me if he is getting the ball out under the league average 2.7 seconds.  This combine with accuracy stats will tell me if the problem is Zach. I would be ECSTATIC if he falls into the zone I marked in green.  This will tell be the game is slowing down for him, he is seeing the field and is able to play effectively and responsibly. Look at the sh*ttiest QBs on this chart and where their throw depth to time of release was. (poor Geno)

uc?id=15x2aEMN_Rx-lqJY1OFYp5Yi4ur-NQIr0

 

Holy sh*t, look at Mike White's average target depth, lol.

 

EDIT: Maybe unfair to compare his numbers to the rest, as it was such a small sample size. It may have evened out over a full season. Still, it shows what a lot of people were saying about him. Gets the ball out quickly, yes, but was Mr. Checkdown.

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6 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Time of Release to Target Depth .. this will tell me if he is stuck tracking only shallow or deep targets and also tell me if he is getting the ball out under the league average 2.7 seconds.  This combine with accuracy stats will tell me if the problem is Zach. I would be ECSTATIC if he falls into the zone I marked in green.  This will tell be the game is slowing down for him, he is seeing the field and is able to play effectively and responsibly. Look at the sh*ttiest QBs on this chart and where their throw depth to time of release was. (poor Geno)

uc?id=15x2aEMN_Rx-lqJY1OFYp5Yi4ur-NQIr0

 

While I get the point, any metric that has Russell Wilson behind Sam Darnold and Geno Smith is suspect IMO. There are a lot of factors involved in this metric

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Just now, Flea Flicking Frank said:

While I get the point, any metric that has Russell Wilson behind Sam Darnold and Geno Smith is suspect IMO. There are a lot of factors involved in this metric

Not so much .. tells me Russell was running for his life and chucking the ball deep. Will be interesting to watch him this year,

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I think it's a good metric. Nice call. I think completion percentage going up on the flats and short yardage throws is also another low-hanging fruit one that I hope he cleans up.

He also needs to improve on red zone scoring. We have multiple opportunities for mismatches in a compressed area and in theory decent power rushing options. There needs to be an improvement there.

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5 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

While I get the point, any metric that has Russell Wilson behind Sam Darnold and Geno Smith is suspect IMO. There are a lot of factors involved in this metric

It doesn't clearly put Russell Wilson behind Darnold and Geno. It shows he holds the ball a tad bit longer yes, but with a much higher average target depth. That'd suggest that Wilson is either eluding the rush, or extending plays to push the ball downfield while the latter two are holding on to the ball only to dump it off.

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43 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Not so much .. tells me Russell was running for his life and chucking the ball deep. Will be interesting to watch him this year,

Great chart and I agree where we would like to see him.

To be fair though, Zach Wilson was doing the same - specifically early.

Question for you - Does this have game by game data?   I only ask because I am curious as to how Zach looked in the Bucs game on this chart.  I'm not saying one game matters - but I am curious if he was in the zone you're talking about during that game (at least showing he's capable.)  

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2 hours ago, nycdan said:

Interesting note on this.  Most of the QBs with a long time-to-release are the most mobile QBs.  Allen, Russ, Lamar, Hurts.  Wilson did have a lot of throws on the move as well thanks to some spotty interior OL play.  On the other end, you see the statues with quicker releases (Tannehill, Ben, Cousins, Mac Jones) because if they don't get rid of it fast, they are eating turf.

I'd love to see an adjusted version of this for in-the-pocket passes only.  Might be a much different pattern.

 

EDIT:  IT WAS YPA NOT ADOT TOM YOU DUMMY

 

The way this is measured is the clock stops when the ball is released or the QB crosses the LOS on a scramble, so Zach being in that group is very very bad and it’s why the analytics guys mostly think Zach is doomed. It’s one thing to hold the ball forever, but it’s another thing to hold the ball forever trying to complete a five yard pass. The conclusion is that he’s incapable of anticipating coverages.

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27 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Time of Release to Target Depth .. this will tell me if he is stuck tracking only shallow or deep targets and also tell me if he is getting the ball out under the league average 2.7 seconds.  This combined with accuracy stats will tell me if the problem is Zach. I would be ECSTATIC if he falls into the zone I marked in green.  This will tell be the game is slowing down for him, he is seeing the field and is able to play effectively and responsibly. Look at the sh*ttiest QBs on this chart and where their throw depth to time of release was. (poor Geno)

uc?id=15x2aEMN_Rx-lqJY1OFYp5Yi4ur-NQIr0

 

In before @Spoot-Face , at least 10 MILFs and 3 GILFs.

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5 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

... also tells you how dominant Brady is ... Jesus.

Seriously. The other takeaway isn't surprising, the en vogue offenses are all timing based right now. While it's appealing to get caught up in finding talent at QB that can operate off-schedule, the Jets have seemed to have prioritized that (Darnold, Wilson) over actual meat-and-potatoes production within the construct of the offense.

From a qualitative sense, is Wilson improving disguising play action? Last year he had bouts where he put minimal effort into that and this offense is heavily predicated on explosives. Is he picking his spots to go deep? Mike White is captain checkdown, and I don't want that out of my franchise QB. But Zach Wilson too often left open checkdown options and opted for low percentage throws. Which was a big problem at BYU, but he just out-talented the DB most times because of his natural talent. Is Wilson's footwork improving? Little things like planting the lead foot in the direction of your throws. He is very accurate on side arm throws, but it also leaves him with poor mechanics on the "gimmes" which I hate because he kept acting like it was a "got to just be natural and throw it", which isn't 100% the only problem. He didn't have yips, his footwork was messy at times last year.

He cleaned up turnovers at the end of the year, but without looking too closely, I bet his average depth also suffered as a result. Albeit half the team was on IR or out the last few weeks. Want to see more scoring production.

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36 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Holy sh*t, look at Mike White's average target depth, lol.

 

EDIT: Maybe unfair to compare his numbers to the rest, as it was such a small sample size. It may have evened out over a full season. Still, it shows what a lot of people were saying about him. Gets the ball out quickly, yes, but was Mr. Checkdown.

He definitely has been a major checkdown Charlie, so far. 

If he ever does get more playing time, I'd like to see him throw the ball down the field. 

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9 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The way this is measured is the clock stops when the ball is released or the QB crosses the LOS on a scramble, so Zach being in that group is very very bad and it’s why the analytics guys mostly think Zach is doomed. It’s one thing to hold the ball forever, but it’s another thing to hold the ball forever trying to complete a five yard pass. The conclusion is that he’s incapable of anticipating coverages.

Are you even looking at the chart?

Zach's depth of target is pretty much in line with the release time.  It's not five yard passes.  That's Mike White.

Also, Zach scrambles laterally a lot because he had no interior protection or maybe even as a designed play.  So by your definition, the clock would still be running.

Remember this play?  It probably took 5-6 seconds for him to pass.  I'll take it every time

 

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Holy sh*t, look at Mike White's average target depth, lol.

 

EDIT: Maybe unfair to compare his numbers to the rest, as it was such a small sample size. It may have evened out over a full season. Still, it shows what a lot of people were saying about him. Gets the ball out quickly, yes, but was Mr. Checkdown.

Mike White sucks. 

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There are many, many variables involved in this and people are way oversimplifying it. Holding the ball for a long time could be a factor of looking downfield and having nobody open, only to check down, it could be not reading the defense properly, it could be scrambling for life leading to an eventual check down. There are many variables in most metrics and this has as much to do with the total offense as it does the QB who is a very important but not sole factor. 

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I'm a big yards/attempt guy, myself. 

 

This is very interesting, but no single metric is the end all be all. I think we need to see major improvement from Wilson across the board - completion percentage, yards/attempt, average release time, TD/INT ratio, etc., 

You'll notice that Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, and Lamar Jackson all hold the ball longer than you'd ideally like -but they make it work because they make plays down the field. There is more than one way to skin the old cat. 

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32 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

It doesn't clearly put Russell Wilson behind Darnold and Geno. It shows he holds the ball a tad bit longer yes, but with a much higher average target depth. That'd suggest that Wilson is either eluding the rush, or extending plays to push the ball downfield while the latter two are holding on to the ball only to dump it off.

Its largely impossible to understand initial target downfield vs actual target. 

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5 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

There are many, many variables involved in this and people are way oversimplifying it. Holding the ball for a long time could be a factor of looking downfield and having nobody open, only to check down, it could be not reading the defense properly, it could be scrambling for life leading to an eventual check down. There are many variables in most metrics and this has as much to do with the total offense as it does the QB who is a very important but not sole factor. 

Common knowledge around these parts. This isn't reddit. And a good QB, still finds a way to get the ball out of his hands. 

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6 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Are you even looking at the chart?

Zach's depth of target is pretty much in line with the release time.  It's not five yard passes.  That's Mike White.

Also, Zach scrambles laterally a lot because he had no interior protection or maybe even as a designed play.  So by your definition, the clock would still be running.

Remember this play?  It probably took 5-6 seconds for him to pass.  I'll take it every time

 

 

 

 

Just now, slimjasi said:

Take another look - that's not what this chart is showing at all. 

My bad. I confused depth of target for YPA. Zach’s YPA was a pitiful 6.1. Mike White’s was 7.2. Zach threw it further, but couldn’t complete any of them

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

 

My bad. I confused depth of target for YPA. Zach’s YPA was a pitiful 6.1. Mike White’s was 7.2. Zach threw it further, but couldn’t complete any of them

Yes

 

the biggest two things for me that Wilson needs to improve are completion percentage and yards/attempt. 

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

 

My bad. I confused depth of target for YPA. Zach’s YPA was a pitiful 6.1. Mike White’s was 7.2. Zach threw it further, but couldn’t complete any of them

That last point is fair and concerning.  As is his Sack% of over 10%.  

Those are the numbers that need to get better by a lot.

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Just now, pointman said:

There are very few good quarterbacks on that chart. Mike White not being one of them.

if you were to look at the "consensus" top 10 QB's in the league, and then break this chart into quadrants, the top 10 guys are all over the place and have a lot of very bad QB's around them, IMO this is not a very good metric to evaluate a QB

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1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

Time of Release to Target Depth .. this will tell me if he is stuck tracking only shallow or deep targets and also tell me if he is getting the ball out under the league average 2.7 seconds.  This combined with accuracy stats will tell me if the problem is Zach. I would be ECSTATIC if he falls into the zone I marked in green.  This will tell be the game is slowing down for him, he is seeing the field and is able to play effectively and responsibly. Look at the sh*ttiest QBs on this chart and where their throw depth to time of release was. (poor Geno)

uc?id=15x2aEMN_Rx-lqJY1OFYp5Yi4ur-NQIr0

 

That Tom Brady a**h*** is pretty good at football.

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4 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

if you were to look at the "consensus" top 10 QB's in the league, and then break this chart into quadrants, the top 10 guys are all over the place and have a lot of very bad QB's around them, IMO this is not a very good metric to evaluate a QB

After looking at the chart for a few minutes, I agree. 

Again - this points to my argument that you can never just look at one metric. Football is a game with a lot of moving parts and it's hard to adequately summarize performance with a single number. For example, I'm a big fan of yards/attempt - but Josh Allen only averaged 6.8 yards/attempt last season, which was 24th best in the league. You have to look at everything. Completion percentage, yards/attempt, TD/INT ratio, QBR, average release time, etc., 

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4 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

if you were to look at the "consensus" top 10 QB's in the league, and then break this chart into quadrants, the top 10 guys are all over the place and have a lot of very bad QB's around them, IMO this is not a very good metric to evaluate a QB

Agreed. You know what is? Wins and touchdowns. You know who has zero of both? Ashtyn Davis.

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6 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

if you were to look at the "consensus" top 10 QB's in the league, and then break this chart into quadrants, the top 10 guys are all over the place and have a lot of very bad QB's around them, IMO this is not a very good metric to evaluate a QB

The one that really stands out as an outlier to me is Justin Herbert.  He looks like a checkdown QB on this chart.

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7 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

if you were to look at the "consensus" top 10 QB's in the league, and then break this chart into quadrants, the top 10 guys are all over the place and have a lot of very bad QB's around them, IMO this is not a very good metric to evaluate a QB

Meh .. look at my crosshair .. ALL the QBs around that mark are very good QBs .. even those not highlighted.

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