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Aside from WINS ... THE most important metric I will be keeping tabs on for Zach's progress.


Dunnie
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3 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Meh .. look at my crosshair .. ALL the QBs around that mark are very good QBs .. even those not highlighted.

But there are also a significant number of really good (even great) QBs no where near the crosshair. 

It's an interesting chart and a potentially useful tool, but it's clearly not decisive. 

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3 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Meh .. look at my crosshair .. ALL the QBs around that mark are very good QBs .. even those not highlighted.

I don't love this metric as a measure for QB, I think it does measure overall offense, however, if I was to use this chart I would draw a straignt line from bottom left corner to top right corner not a crosshair. You generally want to be above the line as a QB, but it does not account at all for play design, o line play, WR's getting open, route design, etc.

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58 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The way this is measured is the clock stops when the ball is released or the QB crosses the LOS on a scramble, so Zach being in that group is very very bad and it’s why the analytics guys mostly think Zach is doomed. It’s one thing to hold the ball forever, but it’s another thing to hold the ball forever trying to complete a five yard pass. The conclusion is that he’s incapable of anticipating coverages.

This is terribly inaccurate analysis.  The chart clearly shows he's not "trying to complete a five yard pass" it shows he's pushing the ball downfield.

I mean it's like you said the opposite of the truth - even when the data is literally the point of the thread. (EDIT: I just noticed you recognized this mistake in a previous post - not looking to pile on, sorry). but the rest below is still accurate!

Does he need to get rid of the ball more quickly, surely.  

Does he need to pick up his completion percentage, surely.

Does he still have a very long way to go, surely

Is he a lock to be good, surely not.

Does it show he's holding the ball and then attempting 5 yard passes - absolutely not.

Lastly, I would like to see this chart - pre-injury vs. post-injury.   He was absolutely getting rid of the ball faster later in the season.  

The reason why former QB's and people that have played the position mostly think Zach has a big time future is because early in the year he struggled in certain area and by the end of the year he clearly worked on and made progress toward fixing them.  Recognizing your flaws and then fixing them is a very, very good thing.

The conclusion is that he showed growth and that he was learning how to anticipate coverages - and growth is what we should have been expecting from a 21 year old after 3 years from a relatively small school.

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58 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

It doesn't clearly put Russell Wilson behind Darnold and Geno. It shows he holds the ball a tad bit longer yes, but with a much higher average target depth. That'd suggest that Wilson is either eluding the rush, or extending plays to push the ball downfield while the latter two are holding on to the ball only to dump it off.

Yeah, your 100% right, I was not understanding the chart correctly and the crosshairs threw me off, IMO the crosshairs make this chart wrong. You need to draw a straight line from bottom left corner to top right corner. Above the line is generally going to be a positive, below the line generally a negative. the further below the line the worse, and the further above the line better, but this doesnt account for a lot of really important but impossible to incorporate information

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2 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

Yeah, your 100% right, I was not understanding the chart correctly and the crosshairs threw me off, IMO the crosshairs make this chart wrong. You need to draw a straight line from bottom left corner to top right corner. Above the line is generally going to be a positive, below the line generally a negative. the further below the line the worse, and the further above the line better, but this doesnt account for a lot of really important but impossible to incorporate information

Im not sure about that .. Justin Fields would be considered a good QB then. I was using the actual QBs as a gauge for where to zone.   

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another important note for this chart, this chart will strongly favor QB's/offenses with a lot of deeper timing routes, where the QB and the WR's are on the same page and the QB can read the defense quickly and get the ball out before the WR breaks on his timing route. That inherently also favors a QB with strong O line play because those types of play designs require a pocket to hold up long enough for that route to develop

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1 minute ago, Dunnie said:

Im not sure about that .. Justin Fields would be considered a good QB then. I was using the actual QBs as a gauge for where to zone.   

Thats kind of my greater point, I don't like this chart at as a mechanism for evaluating a QB. I understand why some people like it, I personally don't

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1 hour ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

Yeah, your 100% right, I was not understanding the chart correctly and the crosshairs threw me off, IMO the crosshairs make this chart wrong. You need to draw a straight line from bottom left corner to top right corner. Above the line is generally going to be a positive, below the line generally a negative. the further below the line the worse, and the further above the line better, but this doesnt account for a lot of really important but impossible to incorporate information

Crosshairs threw me also.

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Interesting chart, nonetheless.

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

This is terribly inaccurate analysis.  The chart clearly shows he's not "trying to complete a five yard pass" it shows he's pushing the ball downfield.

I mean it's like you said the opposite of the truth - even when the data is literally the point of the thread. (EDIT: I just noticed you recognized this mistake in a previous post - not looking to pile on, sorry). but the rest below is still accurate!

Does he need to get rid of the ball more quickly, surely.  

Does he need to pick up his completion percentage, surely.

Does he still have a very long way to go, surely

Is he a lock to be good, surely not.

Does it show he's holding the ball and then attempting 5 yard passes - absolutely not.

Lastly, I would like to see this chart - pre-injury vs. post-injury.   He was absolutely getting rid of the ball faster later in the season.  

The reason why former QB's and people that have played the position mostly think Zach has a big time future is because early in the year he struggled in certain area and by the end of the year he clearly worked on and made progress toward fixing them.  Recognizing your flaws and then fixing them is a very, very good thing.

The conclusion is that he showed growth and that he was learning how to anticipate coverages - and growth is what we should have been expecting from a 21 year old after 3 years from a relatively small school.

Yeah, my mistake. It’s been a thing that the PFF bros bring up all the time when breaking down Zach Wilson—holds the ball too long and doesn’t get enough out of it. I presumed that included aDOT, but it was referencing EPA and YPA. In fact, Wilson wasn’t bad throwing it 20 plus—he had an 80% passer rating on those throws. It was 10-19 where he was not good and, interestingly, throws behind the line of scrimmage. My apologies to Zach Wilson and his legion of fan.

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38 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Yeah, my mistake. It’s been a thing that the PFF bros bring up all the time when breaking down Zach Wilson—holds the ball too long and doesn’t get enough out of it. I presumed that included aDOT, but it was referencing EPA and YPA. In fact, Wilson wasn’t bad throwing it 20 plus—he had an 80% passer rating on those throws. It was 10-19 where he was not good and, interestingly, throws behind the line of scrimmage. My apologies to Zach Wilson and his legion of fan.

Filthy hatEr

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@Dunnie 

Happy you said 'asides from wins', as Wins, to me, are a team metric (and possibly more a coaching / FO metric).

Just looking at Matt Stafford's number, I believe he was a losing QB for 8 of 13 seasons.


I'd love to see passer rating increased, though that would be mitigated with drops.

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Yeah, my mistake. It’s been a thing that the PFF bros bring up all the time when breaking down Zach Wilson—holds the ball too long and doesn’t get enough out of it. I presumed that included aDOT, but it was referencing EPA and YPA. In fact, Wilson wasn’t bad throwing it 20 plus—he had an 80% passer rating on those throws. It was 10-19 where he was not good and, interestingly, throws behind the line of scrimmage. My apologies to Zach Wilson and his legion of fan.

What's interesting is we do know, in the 0-10 yards he had a top 5 passer rating the last 4 weeks of the season (not saying that will hold up for a full season but it was a full 1/3 of the games he played and at the end of the season - showing growth and consistency) And as you state it really is the intermediate throws he had the problem with

Which actually makes sense considering, I suspect, that's where the most traffic is and decision making is the most difficult - and where reading defenses is likely the most complicated.   

The question of can he solve that problem really remains to be seen, but I do agree it's a legitimate one - he needs to be able to read and react much faster than he's been able to so far.  Can he do that and remain accurate?

We'll see!

 

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7 hours ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

Its largely impossible to understand initial target downfield vs actual target. 

How do you mean? There's only one target per given play.

 

EDIT: Nvm. Saw your other post. :)

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6 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Won't disagree with this, but, at this point in time, he kinda sucks less than Zach Wilson.

 

I love Zach. LOVE. Let me just say, I am hoping for a huge ceiling for Zach that he can touch. White just sucks and his ceiling is suffocating. 

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21 minutes ago, pointman said:

I love Zach. LOVE. Let me just say, I am hoping for a huge ceiling for Zach that he can touch. White just sucks and his ceiling is suffocating. 

I, too, hope Zach can reach his ceiling. First, though, I just want see him reach White's floor.

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9 hours ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

I think it's a good metric. Nice call. I think completion percentage going up on the flats and short yardage throws is also another low-hanging fruit one that I hope he cleans up.

He also needs to improve on red zone scoring. We have multiple opportunities for mismatches in a compressed area and in theory decent power rushing options. There needs to be an improvement there.

All good metrics but some variables in time to release, depth, redzone in play calling that creates some inconsistencies with the input data.  What is probably going to be the most impactful area of improvement for the Jets and Wilson will be 3rd down.  His completion percentage dropped down to 52% and he took 23 sacks and only converted 28%.

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1 minute ago, JiFapono said:

All good metrics but some variables in time to release, depth, redzone in play calling that creates some inconsistencies with the input data.  What is probably going to be the most impactful area of improvement for the Jets and Wilson will be 3rd down.  His completion percentage dropped down to 52% and he took 23 sacks and only converted 28%.

Which makes sense since he holds the ball too long. Good point. Honestly, he was so bad for a stretch that he almost naturally has to have better production since he has better talent around him. Hoping for a big leap forward, but I still have some doubt in my mind that he is able to clean up everything. 

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9 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Which makes sense since he holds the ball too long. Good point. Honestly, he was so bad for a stretch that he almost naturally has to have better production since he has better talent around him. Hoping for a big leap forward, but I still have some doubt in my mind that he is able to clean up everything. 

I literally have no idea what to expect but I'm kind of the same mind.  I cant imagine him being worse.  It's another year in the same system, everything around him on paper is better, I expect a much better run game...these are all the ingredients for the recipe of improvement but I dont know what that ultimately looks like when the season is over.

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IMO, here's the problem with ZW and it goes back to last year.  He has to stop forcing plays that aren't there.  Sounds simple enough, but that's exactly what happened in the preseason game he got hurt in.  He threw a dumbass INT and then instead of running out of bounds, cut and started up field.  But now, he has weapons, a lot of them.  He has to learn it isn't all on him and trust the running game and his WR's.  To me, that's it.  Let the game come to you and just execute the game plan.  

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19 hours ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Seriously. The other takeaway isn't surprising, the en vogue offenses are all timing based right now. While it's appealing to get caught up in finding talent at QB that can operate off-schedule, the Jets have seemed to have prioritized that (Darnold, Wilson) over actual meat-and-potatoes production within the construct of the offense.

From a qualitative sense, is Wilson improving disguising play action? Last year he had bouts where he put minimal effort into that and this offense is heavily predicated on explosives. Is he picking his spots to go deep? Mike White is captain checkdown, and I don't want that out of my franchise QB. But Zach Wilson too often left open checkdown options and opted for low percentage throws. Which was a big problem at BYU, but he just out-talented the DB most times because of his natural talent. Is Wilson's footwork improving? Little things like planting the lead foot in the direction of your throws. He is very accurate on side arm throws, but it also leaves him with poor mechanics on the "gimmes" which I hate because he kept acting like it was a "got to just be natural and throw it", which isn't 100% the only problem. He didn't have yips, his footwork was messy at times last year.

He cleaned up turnovers at the end of the year, but without looking too closely, I bet his average depth also suffered as a result. Albeit half the team was on IR or out the last few weeks. Want to see more scoring production.

1000% the bolded part. The off platform, Houdini element is rarer and nice to have, but if you can't consistently operate efficiently within the contstruct of the offense, you just aren't going to move the ball on a consistent basis. 

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19 hours ago, slimjasi said:

I'm a big yards/attempt guy, myself. 

 

This is very interesting, but no single metric is the end all be all. I think we need to see major improvement from Wilson across the board - completion percentage, yards/attempt, average release time, TD/INT ratio, etc., 

You'll notice that Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, and Lamar Jackson all hold the ball longer than you'd ideally like -but they make it work because they make plays down the field. There is more than one way to skin the old cat. 

They also pick up a lot of yards running the ball as well (which Zach is also capable of, but then the injury risk increases). 

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10 hours ago, JiFapono said:

All good metrics but some variables in time to release, depth, redzone in play calling that creates some inconsistencies with the input data.  What is probably going to be the most impactful area of improvement for the Jets and Wilson will be 3rd down.  His completion percentage dropped down to 52% and he took 23 sacks and only converted 28%.

I think the reason for this (and I'm not going to do the research to pull up the stats) is that down the stretch, Wilson seemed to improve on plays where the offense was not very likely to pass (2nd and less than 10, 3rd and less than 5) and the offense was able to manufacture an open first read for him. Wilson could look to his first read, find the open receiver, make the accurate pass. If the defense had to prepare for a possible running play. 

Whenever the offense was in a down and distance that a pass was more likely and the first option was taken away, Wilson still seemed to struggle moving the offense (even though he stopped throwing picks). 

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20 hours ago, nycdan said:

Interesting note on this.  Most of the QBs with a long time-to-release are the most mobile QBs.  Allen, Russ, Lamar, Hurts.  Wilson did have a lot of throws on the move as well thanks to some spotty interior OL play.  On the other end, you see the statues with quicker releases (Tannehill, Ben, Cousins, Mac Jones) because if they don't get rid of it fast, they are eating turf.

I'd love to see an adjusted version of this for in-the-pocket passes only.  Might be a much different pattern.

 

I don’t know if Tannehill, who played WR at Texas A&M for a couple years, is the best example of a statue.

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5 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I think the reason for this (and I'm not going to do the research to pull up the stats) is that down the stretch, Wilson seemed to improve on plays where the offense was not very likely to pass (2nd and less than 10, 3rd and less than 5) and the offense was able to manufacture an open first read for him. Wilson could look to his first read, find the open receiver, make the accurate pass. If the defense had to prepare for a possible running play. 

Whenever the offense was in a down and distance that a pass was more likely and the first option was taken away, Wilson still seemed to struggle moving the offense (even though he stopped throwing picks). 

Well my friend, that's a pretty spot on analysis.  He was best on 1st and 10, when the D was playing/expecting run.  He didnt turn the ball over on 1st down and was roughly completing 61% of his passes, not great but much better.   Downhill from there but some really interesting stats pop out when you look at his down and distance stats, it could probably be debated that Lil Mikey was a phenomenal 4th down player caller but Zach still delivered, dude was 9 of 11 on 4th down, I dont know the conversion rate but it seemed high from memory, they picked up 4th's quite a bit, seemed like always Berrios too.  There other situation he performed well was 3rd and under 6, he completed 75% of his passes, again, I dont have the conversion rate, we know it was terrible in general on 3rd down but seeing that stat gives me some encouragement that with a good running game we can get him into those situations more often.

Ultimately, this all falls back on Footwork and that was IMO by far his biggest problem.  Just an absolute mess and it makes sense that it breaks down and gets worse when he has to identify someone downfield.  If he can see it and let it fly, first read, short yardage, especially outs, he was fine but man does that limit your playbook and really challenge you to find the right call if you dont have ideal down and distances. 

 

 

 

 

 

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ah, another individual metric for a true team game.  i suppose it's interesting to see where these qb's stand with regard to throw time and target distance.  i think the one takeaway is qb's need to be decisive.  sure mike white threw short passes but he also got the ball out pretty quick.  nothing wrong with that until the defense adjusts and takes it away.  then the qb needs to look further down field.

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6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Someone should tell that to all those teams spending 1/6 of their cap on QB's.  What IDIOTS they all are.

remember the second version of the movie "the longest yard" where the team was so pissed at sandler for making a deal that the oline played matador pass blocking?  imo the owners are stupid to pay so much for one position considering how the qb's play is dictated by the players he's surrounded with.  obviously the owners don't mind as long as they get there tv money and continually higher salary caps.  but it would still be interesting to see what some of these top qb's do on other teams.  will watson succeed in cleveland?  we saw manning and brady both win with their new teams but they weren't the dominant players they were.  and stafford doesn't win that superbowl without kupp's heroics.

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