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The NY Jets have a clear path to upsetting Ravens


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By Vitor Paiva  09/05/2022

 The New York Jets will host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in a game that is a lot closer than most people think

September always arrives, as long as it takes. Week 1 is finally upon us all.

The New York Jets are ready to receive the Baltimore Ravens in the team’s home and season opener, a game in which very few national analysts are giving the Jets a chance to win.

Nonetheless, when comparing New York and Baltimore talent-wise on paper (and solely on paper, because one can’t know how Robert Saleh‘s new-shaped squad will look), the two teams are not all that far apart.

Undeniably, the Ravens have the more firmly established core. Baltimore is a winning franchise that has known how to be successful since the beginning of this century. The Jets, on the other hand, have had some troubles (to put it lightly).

But when comparing the talent level on both teams, the Jets are closer to the Ravens than most people think.

Offensively, the Ravens’ top three wide receivers are Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, and James Proche II. Arguably, none of those guys would start in New York.

On defense, the Jets’ defensive line is way ahead of what the Ravens have (even though, in Baltimore, it’s the scheme that’s responsible for creating most of the pressure).

However, football is a game with a myriad of facets. And in most of those facets, the Ravens are ahead of the Jets.

Considering last season’s game film, Baltimore’s players know and do their job better than New York’s.

The Ravens’ stability and overall team awareness are what make them the favorites for next Sunday’s game.

Still, if the Jets can win these four matchups listed below, they have a chance to upset Baltimore at home.

1. Jets DL vs. Ravens run game

This is one of the hottest topics among Jets fans who are interested in schematics: the Jets’ DL approach.

New York might be the only team in the league without a true 0 or 1-tech on the roster, i.e., a heavier lineman that can line up in front of the center or on either one of his shoulders.

Solomon Thomas, a guy who’s been a 3-tech his entire career, is taking the role of the “heavier” defensive lineman on the squad.

Still, that’s all part of Robert Saleh’s plan, who said in the offseason that he would like to have “a bunch of 3-techs that fire off the ball and create knock-back” when asked about the Jets’ lack of run stuffers.

In the Jets’ 4-3 attacking scheme, speed and explosiveness are kings. It’s what allows those linemen to penetrate gaps and either tackle the ball carrier for a loss or redirect him away from his original running path.

That does not come without side effects.

Last season, the Jets had the 29th-ranked run defense in the league, allowing 138.3 yards per game.

This happened mostly because New York’s linemen would blindly attack, and opposing offenses would fool them with trap and other gap-run concepts, using the Jets’ aggression against them.

In the end, opposing OL were often spotted in the second level on the Jets’ defense, giving linebackers no chance.

However, the Jets’ DL wasn’t as talented as it is now.

Foley Fatukasi, a starter last season, was allowed to leave in free agency since he isn’t a fit for the scheme (as good as he is as a true 0/1-tech). It’s easy to spot that: No player on the 2022 Jets has a similar skillset to Foley.

This season, the Jets have ten explosive guys that can invade the backfield from multiple spots up front, finally giving Saleh what he always wanted.

Against the Ravens, if the Jets are going to remain true to their game, they must be extremely explosive. Being late against this Ravens offense – which loves to run powers and counters, pulling offensive linemen to the second level – will be deadly.

And all of that is not even accounting for Lamar Jackson’s running skills.

Playing No. 8 without containing on the outside is simply impossible. New York’s defensive ends will have to be more responsible. As for the interior DL, if all they do is attack, they must do it fast.

2. Jets pass defense vs. Lamar Jackson

Another highly discussed topic among Jets fans is this defense’s (lack of) coverage creativity.

The 2021 Jets played spot-drop zone on first and second down and ran some sort of man pressure on third. That was the plan most of the time.

Against the Baltimore Ravens, though, doing that would be ill-advised.

First, using the Jets’ preferred coverages against Lamar (Cover 3, 6, and quarters) is an invitation for trouble. Jackson wants to throw the ball in between the hashes. That is where he excels. And that’s where the space is at on those coverages if played under their traditional responsibilities.

Second, playing man pressure on Lamar on third down can only be done with elite responsibility from the guys up front. If Jackson escapes, with defensive backs having their backs turned to play man, that will be all she wrote.

So, what should the Jets do?

First and foremost, if the Jets can create pressure with the four-man rush, everything becomes easier – especially on third down.

For this game, New York’s flat defenders must drop to their zones giving the flat to Jackson. And the deep third and fourth cornerbacks must line up with inside leverage.

That’s the way to force No. 8 to throw the ball outside the numbers.

He might succeed, yes, but it will be a lot harder.

As for the man pressure looks… Well, the Jets can’t and shouldn’t abandon them.

But it will be on the defensive line to not allow Jackson to escape. Outside rushers have to keep him in the pocket on third down until interior pressure arrives. And the Jets might have a chance.

3. Jets IOL vs Ravens stunts

For years now, the Jets have not been able to properly handle DL stunts, going back to Todd Bowles’ days.

That is due to two main reasons: coaching and lack of continuity on the OL.

However, the Jets are now keeping three of the five starters from last season. The two newcomers are veterans Duane Brown and Laken Tomlinson, who have played in this scheme before and have been reliable players throughout their careers.

Nonetheless, one of the strengths of this Ravens defense is their front-7. Justin Houston, David Ojabo, and Odafe Oweh are all talented pass rushers, while Calais Campbell and Justin Madubuike are a solid duo inside.

Sure, Wink Martindale is gone now, but he’s not taking his exotic looks away with him. Current Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is a “Ravens” guy himself, coaching in Baltimore from 2015-2020, under Martindale, before leaving for Michigan to handle the defensive coordinator role.

It is safe to say that the Jets will still face different pressure looks all game long.

On the outside, I believe that Brown and George Fant will be able to handle their duties just fine.

However, on the interior, it will be up to Alijah Vera-Tucker playing a new spot, Connor McGovern (who is far from perfect), and Laken Tomlinson to communicate well and give Joe Flacco time against pressure.

Flacco himself will also be a big help, considering his experience against Baltimore’s defense.

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Path to success for Jets against Ravens is paved with the D avoiding allowing Ravens O to stay on the field; big turnovers (fumble/pick-6 and or multiple + red zone turnovers);  and the Jets O hitting at least one home run TD (40+ yards) with multiple 20+ yard gains (because the Jets O will not grind out scores against the Ravens D). The bottom line is that Jets players must make several Big plays for the Jets to win. On the bright side, it certainly does appear that the Jets have been built with the idea of having a team with players capable of big plays.

The more likely result is that the Jets will be bludgeoned to death by the Raven run game and passes to TEs Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely; the Ravens will dominate the time of possession; and the Jets O will have the ball so infrequently that it will never find a rhythm.

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Saleh has no plan for how to contain Lamar

”In the end you have to stay true to your principles and who you are”

Which sounds like it means his predictable Pete Carrol style defense with zero opponent-specific game planning against an opponent which wants to play a very specific way and has a unicorn at the QB position 

They have to keep Lamar contained in the pocket to have any chance 

Just think about Eric Smith trying (and failing) to chase down Tim Tebow in prime time in Denver

It’s kind of like threat multiplied by 1000 because Lamar is faster, better, and can actually throw the football when he gets outside the pocket

Even if they can do this, it sucks because unlike Kapono, Lamar can also win from the pocket.  

The thing is he’s obviously more dangerous when those escape lanes open up for him.

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Lamar’s success is from his ability to create havoc with his feet.  Don’t know where all the evidence is of his passing outside the pocket and from in the pocket, he’s cracked 3K yards once in his 4 seasons. 
Keep his runs under control and he has a hard time 

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12 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Lamar’s success is from his ability to create havoc with his feet.  Don’t know where all the evidence is of his passing outside the pocket and from in the pocket, he’s cracked 3K yards once in his 4 seasons. 
Keep his runs under control and he has a hard time 

yep - the only way the Jets win is that our defense plays out of it's collective mind.

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The OP write-up is very much accurate. 

However, IMO, its a lot simpler. 

On DEFENSE: The Jets need to stop L. Jackson on 3rd down. Running and passing. They need to get him into 3rd and long and then they need to blitz. I'm not an expert. maybe I'm wrong but I don't see any other way. I think otherwise he will extend plays and hit his receivers or just run the ball for the first. Obviously, the Jets will focus on the Ravens TEs and run game. But its those 3rd down conversions with Lamar that will make or break us. 

On OFFENSE: The Jets need to convert 3rd downs. They need to STAY OUT of 3rd and long and convert. They will need to pass the ball. Fans talking about how good the Ravens secondary is and the Jets should try to establish the run. Well, sure. But the Ravens run D is also very good. A balanced attack is necessary and the Jets just need to get to 3rd and short and convert. Be creative! This is not a time to be conservative and try to jam it in on 3rd and 2, for example. I want to see a play-action to the H-back, a sweep to Berrios...or something.   

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I usually don't bet for or against the Jets. When I'm optimistic, they disappoint me. When I'm pessimistic, they win to spite me.

But I'm taking Balti and giving the points with confidence here.

Jets can buy the win from me, if they are up to the task.

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12 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Path to success for Jets against Ravens is paved with the D avoiding allowing Ravens O to stay on the field; big turnovers (fumble/pick-6 and or multiple + red zone turnovers);  and the Jets O hitting at least one home run TD (40+ yards) with multiple 20+ yard gains (because the Jets O will not grind out scores against the Ravens D). The bottom line is that Jets players must make several Big plays for the Jets to win. On the bright side, it certainly does appear that the Jets have been built with the idea of having a team with players capable of big plays.

The more likely result is that the Jets will be bludgeoned to death by the Raven run game and passes to TEs Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely; the Ravens will dominate the time of possession; and the Jets O will have the ball so infrequently that it will never find a rhythm.

Defense could play very well. But if they're on the field all day, not gonna work. Offense cannot be 3 and out all day. Need to get yards on 1st down because 3rd and long all day will be a disaster. Takes all the guesswork out of it for Ravens defense. 

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If Lamar Jackson plays football like a normal human being and the Ravens’ TEs (don’t sleep on 4th round gem TE Isiah Likely) have all their limbs amputated, and #14 plays like the MVP we expected back in 2018, THEN MAYBE the Jets can pull an upset 12-10.

“Zteady & zurely Zeurlein Zaves the Day for Jets in season opening stunner!” Lol

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58 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Better hope Ronnie Stanley is out 

Ja’Wuan James hasn’t played football in 2 years and would be the starting LT

JK Dobbins is questionable, and his backups are old scrub Mike Davis, torn-Achilles rehabber Justice Hill, and journeyman Kenyan Drake 

Kenyan Drake is no joke in the passing game as he’s like having another Wr out there.  K Drake not the best in pass protection , but l Jackson is very elusive , and  Any pass to him could go the distance .( not to mention you can move him outside right before the snap, and get him matched on Lb- than see him attacking well down the field. 
 

Demarcus Robinson  a lot of Jet fans are sleeping on , and this ex Chief( was in Raiders camp)  has made a lot of plays in the NFL .    He’s capable putting up over 100 yards on the Jets secondary. 

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6 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

But they have a clearer path to upsetting their fans

 

I’m post-emotion with the Jets week-to-week at this point.

Just go out there and show the Ravens we aren’t a buncha horses asses, please.

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15 hours ago, slimjasi said:

I'd love to be wrong, but this is just such a terrible matchup for our defense, until proven otherwise.

This would be a considerably more impressive win to me than either the Titans or Bengals game from last year. 

 

Yeah stud TE and elite elusive runner as QB gonna expose our LBs, I fear. Our line has great burst but lacks side-to-side agility, as well.

It is a terrible first week matchup.

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just about anything can happen in these early games as teams try to get into some sort of groove.  the ravens clearly have the advantage because they're pretty intact from last season.  but jackson's legs are one year older and it's not like he's been untouched over the past few years.  we'll see.  if wilson was starting i'd give the jets a better chance.  the ravens know too much about what flacco can and can't do.

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On 9/6/2022 at 7:00 AM, LIJetsFan said:

By Vitor Paiva  09/05/2022

 The New York Jets will host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in a game that is a lot closer than most people think

September always arrives, as long as it takes. Week 1 is finally upon us all.

The New York Jets are ready to receive the Baltimore Ravens in the team’s home and season opener, a game in which very few national analysts are giving the Jets a chance to win.

Nonetheless, when comparing New York and Baltimore talent-wise on paper (and solely on paper, because one can’t know how Robert Saleh‘s new-shaped squad will look), the two teams are not all that far apart.

Undeniably, the Ravens have the more firmly established core. Baltimore is a winning franchise that has known how to be successful since the beginning of this century. The Jets, on the other hand, have had some troubles (to put it lightly).

But when comparing the talent level on both teams, the Jets are closer to the Ravens than most people think.

Offensively, the Ravens’ top three wide receivers are Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, and James Proche II. Arguably, none of those guys would start in New York.

On defense, the Jets’ defensive line is way ahead of what the Ravens have (even though, in Baltimore, it’s the scheme that’s responsible for creating most of the pressure).

However, football is a game with a myriad of facets. And in most of those facets, the Ravens are ahead of the Jets.

Considering last season’s game film, Baltimore’s players know and do their job better than New York’s.

The Ravens’ stability and overall team awareness are what make them the favorites for next Sunday’s game.

Still, if the Jets can win these four matchups listed below, they have a chance to upset Baltimore at home.

1. Jets DL vs. Ravens run game

This is one of the hottest topics among Jets fans who are interested in schematics: the Jets’ DL approach.

New York might be the only team in the league without a true 0 or 1-tech on the roster, i.e., a heavier lineman that can line up in front of the center or on either one of his shoulders.

Solomon Thomas, a guy who’s been a 3-tech his entire career, is taking the role of the “heavier” defensive lineman on the squad.

Still, that’s all part of Robert Saleh’s plan, who said in the offseason that he would like to have “a bunch of 3-techs that fire off the ball and create knock-back” when asked about the Jets’ lack of run stuffers.

In the Jets’ 4-3 attacking scheme, speed and explosiveness are kings. It’s what allows those linemen to penetrate gaps and either tackle the ball carrier for a loss or redirect him away from his original running path.

That does not come without side effects.

Last season, the Jets had the 29th-ranked run defense in the league, allowing 138.3 yards per game.

This happened mostly because New York’s linemen would blindly attack, and opposing offenses would fool them with trap and other gap-run concepts, using the Jets’ aggression against them.

In the end, opposing OL were often spotted in the second level on the Jets’ defense, giving linebackers no chance.

However, the Jets’ DL wasn’t as talented as it is now.

Foley Fatukasi, a starter last season, was allowed to leave in free agency since he isn’t a fit for the scheme (as good as he is as a true 0/1-tech). It’s easy to spot that: No player on the 2022 Jets has a similar skillset to Foley.

This season, the Jets have ten explosive guys that can invade the backfield from multiple spots up front, finally giving Saleh what he always wanted.

Against the Ravens, if the Jets are going to remain true to their game, they must be extremely explosive. Being late against this Ravens offense – which loves to run powers and counters, pulling offensive linemen to the second level – will be deadly.

And all of that is not even accounting for Lamar Jackson’s running skills.

Playing No. 8 without containing on the outside is simply impossible. New York’s defensive ends will have to be more responsible. As for the interior DL, if all they do is attack, they must do it fast.

2. Jets pass defense vs. Lamar Jackson

Another highly discussed topic among Jets fans is this defense’s (lack of) coverage creativity.

The 2021 Jets played spot-drop zone on first and second down and ran some sort of man pressure on third. That was the plan most of the time.

Against the Baltimore Ravens, though, doing that would be ill-advised.

First, using the Jets’ preferred coverages against Lamar (Cover 3, 6, and quarters) is an invitation for trouble. Jackson wants to throw the ball in between the hashes. That is where he excels. And that’s where the space is at on those coverages if played under their traditional responsibilities.

Second, playing man pressure on Lamar on third down can only be done with elite responsibility from the guys up front. If Jackson escapes, with defensive backs having their backs turned to play man, that will be all she wrote.

So, what should the Jets do?

First and foremost, if the Jets can create pressure with the four-man rush, everything becomes easier – especially on third down.

For this game, New York’s flat defenders must drop to their zones giving the flat to Jackson. And the deep third and fourth cornerbacks must line up with inside leverage.

That’s the way to force No. 8 to throw the ball outside the numbers.

He might succeed, yes, but it will be a lot harder.

As for the man pressure looks… Well, the Jets can’t and shouldn’t abandon them.

But it will be on the defensive line to not allow Jackson to escape. Outside rushers have to keep him in the pocket on third down until interior pressure arrives. And the Jets might have a chance.

3. Jets IOL vs Ravens stunts

For years now, the Jets have not been able to properly handle DL stunts, going back to Todd Bowles’ days.

That is due to two main reasons: coaching and lack of continuity on the OL.

However, the Jets are now keeping three of the five starters from last season. The two newcomers are veterans Duane Brown and Laken Tomlinson, who have played in this scheme before and have been reliable players throughout their careers.

Nonetheless, one of the strengths of this Ravens defense is their front-7. Justin Houston, David Ojabo, and Odafe Oweh are all talented pass rushers, while Calais Campbell and Justin Madubuike are a solid duo inside.

Sure, Wink Martindale is gone now, but he’s not taking his exotic looks away with him. Current Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is a “Ravens” guy himself, coaching in Baltimore from 2015-2020, under Martindale, before leaving for Michigan to handle the defensive coordinator role.

It is safe to say that the Jets will still face different pressure looks all game long.

On the outside, I believe that Brown and George Fant will be able to handle their duties just fine.

However, on the interior, it will be up to Alijah Vera-Tucker playing a new spot, Connor McGovern (who is far from perfect), and Laken Tomlinson to communicate well and give Joe Flacco time against pressure.

Flacco himself will also be a big help, considering his experience against Baltimore’s defense.

what a beautiful fantasy land you lived in just a few hours ago

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On 9/6/2022 at 11:21 AM, Jet Nut said:

Lamar’s success is from his ability to create havoc with his feet.  Don’t know where all the evidence is of his passing outside the pocket and from in the pocket, he’s cracked 3K yards once in his 4 seasons. 
Keep his runs under control and he has a hard time 

Considering how OFTEN Jackson runs, I think his passing yardage is actually pretty impressive.  Nearly 10,000 career yards on just 1,329 attempts (7.5 YPA) is quite good.  7.5 YPA is decidedly above average.  

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