103 vs. 30. Update after Week 3; 155 vs. 50

[PepPep]

Deceiving stats. The Jets run game had some positive plays but for the most part ot was shut down early.

Seems like those stats are boosted from the Jets playing from behind. 

Jets CLEARLY tried to establish the run early in both games - AND FAILED. 

The Pass game proved to be pretty successful. More so against the Browns in their epic comeback. But if it aint broke, don't fix it. 

Do I want the Jets to have a balanced attack? Of course. But I've seen them try to force the run in the past and end up just punting drive after drive after drive. I'm glad we are finally airing it out. And we have the weapons to do so. If the run aint working, pass the ball.  

I swear, Jet fans. If its not one thing, its another. lmfao. 

[nj meadowlands]

3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

• 
  
• The Fant penalty that negated Carter's 24-yard run was when the score was tied 17-17.

This might've been the single most depressing / hopeless point of the game

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

‘Member when all the geniuses said we’d be a run-first team?

Hard to do that when you never have a lead and find yourself down 2 scores in the 1st half 

[slimjasi]

14 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

This might've been the single most depressing / hopeless point of the game

Such an atrocious call, too. 

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Hard to do that when you never have a lead and find yourself down 2 scores in the 1st half 

Part of the analysis that informs the prediction, my good man.

[Lurker89]

3 hours ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

They have not been playing from behind both games were within reach late into the contest 

[Integrity28]

4 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Carter is averaging 4.9 ypc and Hall is averaging 5.6 ypc. 

Yes. I was calling for this n the game thread. Yes, yes, yes.

[#27TheDominator]

I get that we all like to "impose our will" but the best approach is to just take what they give us.  That is what I am hoping for.  Keep putting up 30 points throwing the ball and you will see how much easier it gets to run and vice versa.

[Bugg]

1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

Yeah, I don't see an elite pass rusher on the roster. 

The Jets have a lot of decent to good pass rushers - I think their ceiling as a unit is that they end up with multiple guys with between 5 and 8 sacks. 

So far, most JAGs as Parcells would say. Would love to see Clemons be The Guy, but so far, no. 

[GreenFish]

Let Cool Joe sling the ball!

I’m kind of surprised by that ratio. But we’ve been playing from behind both games.

I expected us to be run heavy. But the best part of our offense is we have yac guys every where. So I say sling the ball. Our RBs are a part of the passing game as well. Carter is tied for most reception on our team. 

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Bugg said:

So far, most JAGs as Parcells would say. Would love to see Clemons be The Guy, but so far, no. 

Clemons has elite 3-cone I’d bet on him over Lawson or JJ.

[BeaconJet]

2 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Yeah, I don't see an elite pass rusher on the roster. 

The Jets have a lot of decent to good pass rushers - I think their ceiling as a unit is that they end up with multiple guys with between 5 and 8 sacks. 

That's not necessarily a bad model for now...  would be nice to have an elite pass rusher, but a guy gets hurt, next decent to good guy steps it.  Its hard to replace an elite pass rusher if he gets hurt.

[NYJCAP2]

4 hours ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

They have not been playing from behind both games were within reach late into the contest 

I kind of agree, the Browns game was back and forth always within a possession and so was the 1st half of Ravens game.

The lazy answer if they always play from behind.

They lead the league in PA by 17% more than the second place team and 4x as much as the last.

It’s more of a WCO approach to supplement the run with short passes. It’d be nice to see them establish some kind of run game balance.

 

[JoJoTownsell1]

Lafleur should have run more on that last game winning scoring drive to level off that run/pass imbalance....

[SuicidalSince98]

1 hour ago, Lurker89 said:

Browns game was a 1 score game until 2 mins left 

ravens was a 1 score game until 2nd possession of third quarter. You can’t run the ball down 14 with 1.5 quarters to go? 

[Jetsfan80]

5 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Is the number of pass attempts vs. rushing attempts after 2 games.  I realize they've been playing from behind in both games but that has to change. 

Could some of that also have to do with both Jet RB's appearing to be effective pass-catchers?  When you can throw a "long handoff" for a gain of 5 to these guys on a semi regular basis it makes some sense to be pass-heavy in your attack.  

[FootballLove]

Air LeFleur

[#27TheDominator]

26 minutes ago, jgb said:

Clemons has elite 3-cone I’d bet on him over Lawson or JJ.

I do not believe that Clemons even sniffs elite in the 3 cone.  I saw him reported as 7.20.  He did not run it at the combine.  I am not sure i3 cone times are as unreliable as 40s.  I tend to think not, but still.   7.20 is near the threshold.  I think that 75% of bust pass rushers were at 7.19 and above.  I believe that was from the 1st two rounds, but still.  It is not elite and Clemons ismeets the pass rush threshold, but it is far from elite.  I think sub-7 is considered elite.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/fcxxk9/how_much_do_pass_rusher_3cone_times_matter/

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I do not believe that Clemons even sniffs elite in the 3 cone.  I saw him reported as 7.20.  He did not run it at the combine.  I am not sure i3 cone times are as unreliable as 40s.  I tend to think not, but still.   7.20 is near the threshold.  I think that 75% of bust pass rushers were at 7.19 and above.  I believe that was from the 1st two rounds, but still.  It is not elite and Clemons ismeets the pass rush threshold, but it is far from elite.  I think sub-7 is considered elite.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/fcxxk9/how_much_do_pass_rusher_3cone_times_matter/

Going by this:

Agility score is based on 3 cone perhaps it was a pro day?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

5 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Is the number of pass attempts vs. rushing attempts after 2 games.  I realize they've been playing from behind in both games but that has to change.  Carter is averaging 4.9 ypc and Hall is averaging 5.6 ypc.  I'd argue, the offensive line on paper is better suited to run block vs pass block.  With the emergence of Wilson, the threat of Davis/Moore to stretch the field, the Bengals should be a little bit more hesitant to sell out vs. the run.  Hopefully seeing less 8/9 men boxes, asking Flacco to throw the ball 40+ times a game is not a recipe for success.  I'd really like to see more balance from this offense.  I know score/situation dictates play calling but there were way too many calls IMO (and I like Lil Mikey) where they were running 5 wide, or motioning a RB out wide and not even giving the threat of the run, which I just think is a missed opportunity when you have backs like Carter and Hall.   Seeing that they brought Ty Johnson to pass block on a few plays, they might be concerned with Carter/Hall's ability to pick up the blitz but I really think they need to do a better job of committing to the run game to prevent from having to play from behind each week.

 

 

Agree on balance as long as it's not forced balance.  When teams stack the box to force you to throw, then throw the ball on first down instead of getting into the constant 2nd & 9 or 3rd & 10s we've seen over the last decade.  

Throw a quick high % hitter to replace the run against a stacked box, getting it to Carter & Hall in space.  Or run the jet sweep to Berrios.

You're right on the offensive line being better suited against the run, except again when they are outnumbered ... making this a moot point.

We finally have the horses to be creative and play match up against opponents.

5 WR, 4 WR + TE/RB, 3 WR + TE + RB, 2 WR + 2TE + RB, 2 WR + TE + 2 RB (Carter & Hall combo), 2 WR + 3 TE ...

We have the skill & depth to cherry pick formation against what the defense's weaknesses and alignment look like.  If they can't stop it, then keep it doing it over having statistical balance.  Like when the Raiders ran 100% of the time down our throats until we could stop it.

Our 3rd WR is Corey Davis, a proven #2 WR in this league.  Our 4th is Berrios.  And we saw what Mims (potentially our 5th) did to the Giants back-ups.

When teams don't stack the box, make them pay with the run.

  

 

 

[#27TheDominator]

9 minutes ago, jgb said:

Going by this:

 

10 minutes ago, jgb said:

Going by this:

Agility score is based on 3 cone perhaps it was a pro day?

 

Agility score is based on 3 cone perhaps it was a pro day?

He didn't 3 cone at the combine.  The 7.2 is from his pro day.  The short answer is that I don't believe that score.  The long answer may be they are comparing him to DT?  

 

FWIW, I don't think they necessary want what we consider great pass rushers.  I mean, they do, but priority wise the wide 9 they are going to need guys to stand up the edge and set it, but be fast enough to chase.  They are also going to need to be relentless and one thing about these guys they all have motors.  A guy like Lawson is just a fast bull rush that never stops.  That might be the perfect thing for the majority of what they run IMO

[jvill 51]

A lot of people are blaming game script for this but I don’t think that tells the whole story.

They were very pass happy against Baltimore, even in neutral game script situations (non 2 minute, game within one score). Believe they were over 70% passing in those situations.

Against Cleveland, that number was around 63% (30-18 by my count). They had 17 passes and 2 runs in 2 minute situations, which skews the numbers quite a bit in the overall split, but 63% in close game situations still would have ranked at or near the top of the league last year.

Still a small sample size, but agreed that I’d like to see those number trend more towards the league average given the talent in the backfield. But, for the first time in ages, there are a ton of mouths worth feeding on offense and I think you’ll see the distribution vary a decent amount weekly depending on matchups/defenses adjusting week to week.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

He didn't 3 cone at the combine.  The 7.2 is from his pro day.  The short answer is that I don't believe that score.  The long answer may be they are comparing him to DT?  

 

FWIW, I don't think they necessary want what we consider great pass rushers.  I mean, they do, but priority wise the wide 9 they are going to need guys to stand up the edge and set it, but be fast enough to chase.  They are also going to need to be relentless and one thing about these guys they all have motors.  A guy like Lawson is just a fast bull rush that never stops.  That might be the perfect thing for the majority of what they run IMO

When then he sucks too! 😉 

Seriously though thanks for the comprehensive post.

[Lurker89]

1 hour ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

Browns game was a 1 score game until 2 mins left 

ravens was a 1 score game until 2nd possession of third quarter. You can’t run the ball down 14 with 1.5 quarters to go? 

You said they were not playing from behind when in fact they did not have a lead.... once in either the game....The only time they had a lead was the final seconds of the Browns game which means they were playing from behind i.e.  had less points than the team they were playing against.

.... were you starved of oxygen at some point?

[#27TheDominator]

37 minutes ago, jgb said:

When then he sucks too! 😉 

Seriously though thanks for the comprehensive post.

Ha!  Not that he sucks, but he isn't one of these "1st rounders we found in the 4th!"  He is an older prospect that only dominated for one season and while physically very good, I do not think he is "elite" at anything.   He certainly physically capable enough to be successful, I just don't think he will be a breakout pass rusher.

[#27TheDominator]

16 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

You said they were not playing from behind when in fact they did not have a lead.... once in either the game....The only time they had a lead was the final seconds of the Browns game which means they were playing from behind i.e.  had less points than the team they were playing against.

.... were you starved of oxygen at some point?

This seems kind of harsh. 

1.  Not having a lead does not mean you are playing from behind.   Otherwise you are playing from behind at the start of every game when it is 0-0.  

2.  His point is valid.  Being down one score in the 1st three quarters should not influence your game plan to pass only to save time because you are "playing from behind."  

[SuicidalSince98]

30 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

You said they were not playing from behind when in fact they did not have a lead.... once in either the game....The only time they had a lead was the final seconds of the Browns game which means they were playing from behind i.e.  had less points than the team they were playing against.

.... were you starved of oxygen at some point?

Do you know anything about football, at all? The idea that the Jets couldn’t run the ball because they were “playing from behind” implies that they were so down that they didn’t have enough time to run the ball. No one would consider being down 1 score a situation where a team needs to go away from the run. Football 101

[Jimmy 2 Times]

4 hours ago, jgb said:

‘Member when all the geniuses said we’d be a run-first team?

Raises hand. 

[Jetluv58]

6 hours ago, Fantasy Island said:

When BYU comes back it will be 30 vs 103 to cut down the INT's and one hops.

You hope. 

[FidelioJet]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

In fairness, they generally said that expecting that it would be Zach at QB.

I suspect this to be more accurate.

Old Man Flacco's arm isn't threatening anyone. Teams can stack the box against him.  

Won't be able to do that against the big ZW.  Too much of a threat to take the top off the defense.

[Lurker89]

34 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

This seems kind of harsh. 

1.  Not having a lead does not mean you are playing from behind.   Otherwise you are playing from behind at the start of every game when it is 0-0.  

2.  His point is valid.  Being down one score in the 1st three quarters should not influence your game plan to pass only to save time because you are "playing from behind."  

 

Yeah it was kind of harsh... I mean if I'm going to poke someone for a bad take its only fun of its harsh.

Lets consider your bad take for a moment....

0-0 woud be a tie game so by definition not playing from behind. Since you want to be pedantic and get into semantics I never said not having a lead means your playing from behind.... I said "You said they were not playing from behind when in fact they did not have a lead" check the transcript, unless the game is tied one team is playing from behind. 

 

Well Dom, other than 0-0 was the game ever tied? Did we ever have a lead? Didn't think i had to clarify the game was tied before anyone scored and therefore we did not play from behind at 0-0...strawman nonsense on your part. We were the team playing from behind in both contests.

We played from behind from the initial score of both games. Really though, thanks for pointing out the game was tied at 0-0 ... great point ... you're right were were not behind before anyone scored a point, from that point on were were playing from behind ... and then played from behind the entirety of the game until there were 22 seconds left. 

A one score deficit shouldnt keep you from running the ball, agreed, even so you are still playing from behind, they're not mutually exclusive.

He said  "They have not been playing from behind in both games" when in fact they were. 1 score is playing from behind. 1 point is playing from. The Browns played from behind with 22 seconds left in the game. They lost.

Sure both games were in reach but it is completely erroneous to say "They have not been playing from behind both games" 😘

So again ... "playing from behind" 

 

[Lurker89]

50 minutes ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

Do you know anything about football, at all? The idea that the Jets couldn’t run the ball because they were “playing from behind” implies that they were so down that they didn’t have enough time to run the ball. No one would consider being down 1 score a situation where a team needs to go away from the run. Football 101

I never said they couldn't run the ball because they were down one score you troglodyte, that was some other smoothbrain you were arguing with.   Down one score please establish the run. Use it to open up some play action or get them to respect the run enough to open up the passing game in general. Thanks for the lesson in football 101 though.

You are strawmanning me when I simply said you don't understand the basic meaning of words if you are going to say they were not playing from behind.... because they were from the first score in both games.

[Lurker89]

@FidelioJet remember when we used to argue ... we had fun once you realized not to take me seriously or personally.

 

I still miss dragging @DefenseWinsChampionships85 over Jamallpro ... he took everything personally...made it so much more fun.

 

[Larz]

LaFluer is coaching in the future 

 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

Raises hand. 

No shame brother.