Jets Could be Down to Fourth Left Tackle as Zach Wilson Prepares to Return

[kdels62]

16 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

@kdels62 Crusher locked the previous thread just as I was responding, lol.

RE:  Rookie year data being a wash

I think this is a farce at this point.  The rules have made it so easy to play the QB position relative to how it used to be that its the OLDER data that needs to be thrown out.  We've seen QB's shattering rookie records left and right of late.  It's a completely different game than it was even when, say, the Eli-Rivers-Roethlisberger class debuted.  Let alone the Steve Young's, Rich Gannon's and Peyton Manning's of the world.  

Wilson needs a massive year 2 leap, similar to the one Trevor Lawrence is making at the moment, for there to be a legitimate hope of Wilson being "the guy". 

I’m not disagreeing with this. However, if Lawrence keeps performing at this level we agree that his rookie year told you nothing of value.

[southparkcpa]

44 minutes ago, jgb said:

Snails also progress. But by morning they are 8 feet from dusk day prior.

A snail was mugged by a turtle.  When the police asked what happened... the snail responded "I dont know, it all happened so fast".

 

 

 

Depending on perspective.. the Jets suck or are getting better. It's all perspective.

 

 

[Jetsfan80]

18 hours ago, kdels62 said:

I’m not disagreeing with this. However, if Lawrence keeps performing at this level we agree that his rookie year told you nothing of value.

If Zach Wilson had been coached by Urban Meyer, you, @FidelioJet, @Hal N of Provo and Mrs. Wilson would have called Child Protective Services on his behalf.  

CC:  @T0mShane

[kdels62]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If Zach Wilson had been coached by Urban Meyer, you @FidelioJet, @Hal N of Provo and Mrs. Wilson would have called Child Protective Services on his behalf.  

“Fields will emerge once he’s out from under Matt Nagy”

”Trey Lance is walking onto the best roster and coaching staff in the league”

”Mac Jones is the best rookie and should’ve gone top 5”

”Urban Meyer hampered Lawrence’s development”

None of that means anything. Rookie stats are not indicative of anything otherwise teams would’ve figured out this QB thing much quicker. 

[BCJet]

3 hours ago, Prodigal Syndicate said:

Calling the end of last season progress is strange. He didnt play well. He played scared and in a shell, terrified of throwing an INT. It was as bad as the early part of the season, just for different reasons.

For the last 4 games of the season, his top pass catchers were........

• Jameson Crowder
• Berrios
• Keelan Cole

The tight ends were.....

• Daniel Brown
• Kenny Yeboah

How could a player not play conservatively with that group?  Do you think any single player outside of Berrios was able to get open let alone separation down the field?  

None of us knows how much or if Zach will progress, but having Garret Wilson and Moore able to get legit separation down the field will be a welcome change to what Zach has had to date in the NFL and will allow the organization to determine if he is making the necessary progress or not. 

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

“Fields will emerge once he’s out from under Matt Nagy”

”Trey Lance is walking onto the best roster and coaching staff in the league”

”Mac Jones is the best rookie and should’ve gone top 5”

”Urban Meyer hampered Lawrence’s development”

None of that means anything. Rookie stats are not indicative of anything otherwise teams would’ve figured out this QB thing much quicker. 

You’re saying it’s meaningless.  I’m saying it means something.  It’s not the be-all-end-all.  But it’s also not data you simply throw out.  

[PorP]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

I’m saying complaining about the line as the cause if BYU looks like a turd is not going to sway free-thinking folk who know that a FQB may not be at his best behind a poor line but he won’t look like straight dogrel.

I was just joking with you man... 

It's a dry humor... doesn't lend itself well to message boards and takes some getting used to... lol. 

[Jetluv58]

3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Then make an argument

Why should he have to? 

[kdels62]

32 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You’re saying it’s meaningless.  I’m saying it means something.  It’s not the be-all-end-all.  But it’s also not data you simply throw out.  

But it is data you simply throw out. If Lawrence is good this year his rookie year is irrelevant. No one is gonna go back and say well if you look at both seasons he’s probably not good. 

There is no rookie performance that projects out to success for QBs. It’s also foolish to say “Peyton Manning sucked as a rookie therefore other QBs that suck can be Peyton Manning.” 

We mentioned that 81% of QBs drafted suck and identifying the functional 19% is not anymore or less easy after a rookie season. 

[jgb]

19 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If Zach Wilson had been coached by Urban Meyer, you, @FidelioJet, @Hal N of Provo and Mrs. Wilson would have called Child Protective Services on his behalf.  

CC:  @T0mShane

To be in the BYU fan club you have to believe and express openly the belief that a rookie’s stats are “literally meaningless” but must simultaneously conclude by gazing into your magic mirror that Steveler totally sucks based on a sample size of… 

[Flea Flicking Frank]

18 hours ago, kdels62 said:

But it is data you simply throw out. If Lawrence is good this year his rookie year is irrelevant. No one is gonna go back and say well if you look at both seasons he’s probably not good. 

There is no rookie performance that projects out to success for QBs. It’s also foolish to say “Peyton Manning sucked as a rookie therefore other QBs that suck can be Peyton Manning.” 

We mentioned that 81% of QBs drafted suck and identifying the functional 19% is not anymore or less easy after a rookie season. 

youre arguing with people who want a player to fail, and have zero understanding of the QB position, its not worth your time, they won't see anything any differently

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

I played LT in high school 30 years ago. Just saying I'm available JD. 

[slimjasi]

19 hours ago, kdels62 said:

I’m not disagreeing with this. However, if Lawrence keeps performing at this level we agree that his rookie year told you nothing of value.

bingo. 

and this happens over and over again, especially for QBs. 

[Jetsfan80]

37 minutes ago, The Gun Of Bavaria said:

I played LT in high school 30 years ago. Just saying I'm available JD. 

Should at least add you, @Warfish and @The Crusher to the Practice Squad.

[The Crusher]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Should at least add you, @Warfish and @The Crusher to the Practice Squad.

Go ahead, I’ll just stay here and X box. 

[Jet2020]

So the Browns win might cost us the 1st overall?

[kdels62]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

To be in the BYU fan club you have to believe and express openly the belief that a rookie’s stats are “literally meaningless” but must simultaneously conclude by gazing into your magic mirror that Steveler totally sucks based on a sample size of… 

Another good marker of whether or not a QB is good is if he is rostered and given a chance to start. Coaches and front offices are not in the business of self sabotage. Or should we pretend that Hackenberg might be something with his sample size of 0?

[jgb]

Just now, kdels62 said:

Another good marker of whether or not a QB is good is if he is rostered and given a chance to start. Coaches and front offices are not in the business of self sabotage. Or should we pretend that Hackenberg might be something with his sample size of 0?

Let’s take a page out of the pro-BYU playbook: “Kurt Warner proves you are wrong.”

[kdels62]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Let’s take a page out of the pro-BYU playbook: “Kurt Warner proves you are wrong.”

Kurt Warner the older street free agent who became a back up? That’s already improbable. Streveler is a practice squad QB not a back up so your example already fails. 

Hackenberg is representative of a large majority of NFL QBs who will make a roster but never see the field. Warner is an outlier. So what did you prove? 

[jgb]

9 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Kurt Warner the older street free agent who became a back up? That’s already improbable. Streveler is a practice squad QB not a back up so your example already fails. 

Hackenberg is representative of a large majority of NFL QBs who will make a roster but never see the field. Warner is an outlier. So what did you prove? 

I proved that the pro-BYU argument is not fact-based as you were just goaded into defeating your camp’s most-oft-repeated talking point: that Josh Allen “proves” BYU is a secret-FQB-in-hiding.

[Jets723]

12 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Kurt Warner the older street free agent who became a back up? That’s already improbable. Streveler is a practice squad QB not a back up so your example already fails. 

Hackenberg is representative of a large majority of NFL QBs who will make a roster but never see the field. Warner is an outlier. So what did you prove? 

True 

[Flea Flicking Frank]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

I proved that the pro-BYU argument is not fact-based as you were just goaded into defeating your camp’s most-oft-repeated talking point: that Josh Allen “proves” BYU is a secret-FQB-in-hiding.

[Sperm Edwards]

On 9/26/2022 at 1:16 PM, bitonti said:

As much as I enjoy watching sauce shut people down the Jets should have gone Ikey at 4

Joe Douglas doubled down on Becton and that was a crucial error 

Lol, the Jets would be even worse is what would've been. Plus they'd have an additional downgrade at corner.

Drafting him at #4 sure wouldn't have helped the pass protection through these first 3 games. If not for the Panthers' team (and player) embarrassment, the knowledge/belief that he's got superior ability that will just take more time to show, and the probability that his backup sucks as well, it's arguable in terms of earning snaps that Ikey should've already been benched by this point.

3 sacks, 6 hurries, 9 pressures in 3 games. All team-worst. 

Further consider:

Mayfield has just 81 pass attempts; less than half as many as Flacco's 155.

Far fewer pass dropbacks; with a far more mobile QB; with planned roll-outs away from the LT at least 10x as often as Joe Flacco; and who scrambles 5-10x as often as Flacco who just stands there. This is all further all despite the Panthers using a TE as a pure blocker >50% more often than the Jets, to help the rookie out even further. 

In what way has the first 3 games demonstrably shown the Jets' OL would've been improved with Ikey blocking Flacco's blindside? In terms of on-field production right now he'd have been a downgrade over a one-legged Fant.

At least they can get better this way if/when the old man gets back on the field soon. 

[kdels62]

18 minutes ago, jgb said:

I proved that the pro-BYU argument is not fact-based as you were just goaded into defeating your camp’s most-oft-repeated talking point: that Josh Allen “proves” BYU is a secret-FQB-in-hiding.

1) you’re being dishonest about where I stand on this position 

2) you’re the only one that mentioned Josh Allen

3) the argument has been we don’t know anything more about Zach Wilson now than we did when he was drafted and anyone who points to rookie numbers is not pointing to a relevant dataset

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

1) you’re being dishonest about where I stand on this position 

2) you’re the only one that mentioned Josh Allen

3) the argument has been we don’t know anything more about Zach Wilson now than we did when he was drafted and anyone who points to rookie numbers is not pointing to a relevant dataset

1) I am speaking generally, don’t even know you

2) ha ha ha ha Josh Allen is the morning and the evening star of the pro-BYU community

3) debating with you on this would be an absolute waste of energy likely for both of us. When you throw away data — any data — you’re just not on the same wavelength as me.

[kdels62]

11 minutes ago, jgb said:

1) I am speaking generally, don’t even know you

2) ha ha ha ha Josh Allen is the morning and the evening star of the pro-BYU community

3) debating with you on this would be an absolute waste of energy likely for both of us. When you throw away data — any data — you’re just not on the same wavelength as me.

Prove that the data is useful? 2 years of pro football performance condensed into stats and data definitely tells you something useful. Rookie year performance is generally useless and doesn’t help to extrapolate long term success or even create performance baselines. It is less useful or relevant than College analytics and it’s much less useful than 2nd year professional  stats. 

You’re a smart poster. If I’m wrong then you can prove it and show me there’s a baseline performance that is indicative of a QBs future outcomes specifically that there’s a threshold that determines guaranteed or near guaranteed bust status. 

Otherwise we can agree that most QBs drafted, 81%, bust and rookie performance doesn’t give you anymore insight into who does and doesn’t fit into that category.

[jgb]

6 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Prove that the data is useful? 2 years of pro football performance condensed into stats and data definitely tells you something useful. Rookie year performance is generally useless and doesn’t help to extrapolate long term success or even create performance baselines. It is less useful or relevant than College analytics and it’s much less useful than 2nd year professional  stats. 

You’re a smart poster. If I’m wrong then you can prove it and show me there’s a baseline performance that is indicative of a QBs future outcomes specifically that there’s a threshold that determines guaranteed or near guaranteed bust status. 

Otherwise we can agree that most QBs drafted, 81%, bust and rookie performance doesn’t give you anymore insight into who does and doesn’t fit into that category.

We have proven there is a positive correlation between rookie performance and career performance. Many, many times. I’m not going to keep going through the exercise every time a poster demands more.

[bitonti]

27 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Lol, the Jets would be even worse is what would've been. Plus they'd have an additional downgrade at corner.

Drafting him at #4 sure wouldn't have helped the pass protection through these first 3 games. If not for the Panthers' team (and player) embarrassment, the knowledge/belief that he's got superior ability that will just take more time to show, and the probability that his backup sucks as well, it's arguable in terms of earning snaps that Ikey should've already been benched by this point.

3 sacks, 6 hurries, 9 pressures in 3 games. All team-worst. 

Further consider:

Mayfield has just 81 pass attempts; less than half as many as Flacco's 155.

Far fewer pass dropbacks; with a far more mobile QB; with planned roll-outs away from the LT at least 10x as often as Joe Flacco; and who scrambles 5-10x as often as Flacco who just stands there. This is all further all despite the Panthers using a TE as a pure blocker >50% more often than the Jets, to help the rookie out even further. 

In what way has the first 3 games demonstrably shown the Jets' OL would've been improved with Ikey blocking Flacco's blindside? In terms of on-field production right now he'd have been a downgrade over a one-legged Fant.

At least they can get better this way if/when the old man gets back on the field soon. 

Fant Also has 3 sacks allowed. I don't have access to his pressure stats 

Besides the pass attempts The difference is that Ikey is getting better and Fant is now hurt 

Rookie linemen take time but at least there's the likelihood of improving 

There's also a knock on effect of not signing Duane Brown and Cedric Ogbouhi, not extending cj mosely to make room for brown etc 

The position has become a sinkhole 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

Fant Also has 3 sacks allowed. I don't have access to his pressure stats 

Besides the pass attempts The difference is that Ikey is getting better and Fant is now hurt 

Rookie linemen take time but at least there's the likelihood of improving 

There's also a knock on effect of not signing Duane Brown and Cedric Ogbouhi, not extending cj mosely to make room for brown etc 

The position has become a sinkhole 

Fant has pass-blocked for twice as many attempts, is hurt, had gotten significantly less TE help, and blocks for the least-mobile QB in the last 20 years.

Ikey will likely be a good tackle - he might even grow into a great one - but these first few games of his rookie season he's been no asset & thus wouldn't have helped the Jets at all. Even less so if his 2 non-Cleveland games were against Cin and Balt instead of NYG and NO who aren't exactly fielding any stud edge rushers opposite the LT. 

Apples to apples - opponents faced + QB blocking for + less help from an ITE - there would've been even more Flacco sacks credited to the LT with a rookie on that side, too. 

Also you're wrong on Mosley; he was not extended no matter how many times you type it. Zero dollars & zero years were added to Mosley's contract.

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Fant has pass-blocked for twice as many attempts, is hurt, had gotten significantly less TE help, and blocks for the least-mobile QB in the last 20 years.

Ikey will likely be a good tackle - he might even grow into a great one - but these first few games of his rookie season he's been no asset & thus wouldn't have helped the Jets at all. Even less so if his 2 non-Cleveland games were against Cin and Balt instead of NYG and NO who aren't exactly fielding any stud edge rushers opposite the LT. 

Apples to apples - opponents faced + QB blocking for + less help from an ITE - there would've been even more Flacco sacks credited to the LT with a rookie on that side, too. 

Also you're wrong on Mosley; he was not extended no matter how many times you type it. Zero dollars & zero years were added to Mosley's contract.

So max Mitchell whom we all agree was a solid pick and Ikey have the same amount of pressures, 9. 

Mitchell has like 70 more attempts but Ikey has a harder job 

Ikey is doing about as well as Mitchell. Yes Mitchell has more attempts but still that's a very good pick 

As for cj mosely they took money he wasn't going to get and turned it into bonus thus adding extra cap hit to the future. That means cj is either on the roster or hitting the cap until 24. That's not really a positive development when he sucks in this defense 

[FidelioJet]

On 9/26/2022 at 5:42 PM, BCJet said:

For the last 4 games of the season, his top pass catchers were........

• Jameson Crowder
• Berrios
• Keelan Cole

The tight ends were.....

• Daniel Brown
• Kenny Yeboah

How could a player not play conservatively with that group?  Do you think any single player outside of Berrios was able to get open let alone separation down the field?  

None of us knows how much or if Zach will progress, but having Garret Wilson and Moore able to get legit separation down the field will be a welcome change to what Zach has had to date in the NFL and will allow the organization to determine if he is making the necessary progress or not. 

This is the big question.

Was Zach's progress a function of having no chance to go downfield - so he played conservative and din't throw int's...

Or

Did Zach evolve and would have been far more productive had he had NFL caliber talent around him?

I think it's the latter for sure - reason is - even if you look at the Eagles game or the Bucs game - he kept the team in the games  - each of those games he kept the team within a score in the 4th quarter.  Played smart football.

Zach is going to shock a lot of people around here next week.  It won't be mistake free but he's going to be good.

[The Crusher]

2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

So I looked it up and max Mitchell whom we all agree was a solid pick and Ikey have the same amount of pressures, 9. 

Ikey is doing about as well as Mitchell. Yes Mitchell has more attempts but still that's a very good pick 

As for cj mosely they took money he wasn't going to get and turned it into bonus thus adding extra cap hit to the future. That means cj is either on the roster or hitting the cap until 24. That's not really a positive development when he sucks in this defense 

So we should have drafted another Max Mitchel instead of Sauce Gardner? Seems drastic. But, Saleh has no clue how to use Sauce so at the end of the day it wouldn’t  really matter. The Becton pick will haunt this franchise for a decade! Tristan Wirfs is the in the one that got away. Wow 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

So max Mitchell whom we all agree was a solid pick and Ikey have the same amount of pressures, 9. 

Mitchell has like 70 more attempts but Ikey has a harder job 

Ikey is doing about as well as Mitchell. Yes Mitchell has more attempts but still that's a very good pick 

As for cj mosely they took money he wasn't going to get and turned it into bonus thus adding extra cap hit to the future. That means cj is either on the roster or hitting the cap until 24. That's not really a positive development when he sucks in this defense 

No, that means Mitchell is doing far better, not about the same. That is, unless Ikey gives up zero pressures out of the next 70 dropbacks in a row. If that happens then they’re doing about the same.

You’re simply wrong on Mosley. He’s getting paid the same amount for this year. No additional money, and no additional future guaranteed money added. He’ll be just as cuttable after this year as he was before the restructuring took place.

In other words, nothing you’re saying here is accurate, other than Mitchell looking like a solid pick so far.

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No, that means Mitchell is doing far better, not about the same. That is, unless Ikey gives up zero pressures out of the next 70 dropbacks in a row. If that happens then they’re doing about the same.

 

You're not adjusting for the difficulty difference between LT and RT

if Max Mitchell was as good as Ikey the Jets would move him to LT tomorrow 

and perhaps they still yet but Ikey starting at LT is more difficult than Mitchell starting at RT. That's league economics. 

We have different definitions of "no additional money" - Mosely was going to be cut after this season. they took his insane salary 17 mil per which was not guaranteed and converted it to signing bonus which is cash up front. He was never going to see that money. Now they are stuck with him until he's like 32

this is all because JD messed up at LT 

[Sperm Edwards]

30 minutes ago, bitonti said:

You're not adjusting for the difficulty difference between LT and RT

if Max Mitchell was as good as Ikey the Jets would move him to LT tomorrow 

and perhaps they still yet but Ikey starting at LT is more difficult than Mitchell starting at RT. That's league economics. 

We have different definitions of "no additional money" - Mosely was going to be cut after this season. they took his insane salary 17 mil per which was not guaranteed and converted it to signing bonus which is cash up front. He was never going to see that money. Now they are stuck with him until he's like 32

this is all because JD messed up at LT 

You mean like you’re not adjusting for the lack of difficulty in Ikey facing 2 opponents with no RE edge rush? LT isn’t harder because of a blindside. It’s harder because of the presumed better rusher who’d line up to rush the blindside. Never mind how much easier his QB protection job has been by blocking for ~20 fewer attempts per game, for a far more mobile QB who’ll actually roll out away from the LT and even scramble.

Summary: Ikey has had it easy so far. He’d have been no help over the first 3 games.

Next — you are 100% wrong on Mosley. 100% of his 2022 salary, most of which was converted to bonus, was already 100% guaranteed.

There was no additional money added. There was no additional guaranteed money added. Not one dollar.

Repeating false truths over and over doesn’t make them any more true.