Neeeeed More Breeeeece

[Vader]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

 

YPC

• Hall:  5.3
• Carter:  4.4

Yards per Reception

• Hall:  7.8
• Carter:  5.7

Yards from Scrimmage

• Hall:  213
• Carter:  196

Yards per Touch

• Hall:  6.3
• Carter:   4.8

Touchdowns

• Hall:  1
• Carter:  0

 

No, Carter is not better.

Fumbles

• Hall:  1
• Carter:  0

Dropped Passes

• Hall:  4 (leads league)
• Carter:  0

Broken Tackles

• Hall:  1
• Carter:  4

Tackle for Loss

• Hall:  4
• Carter:  3

Call me old school or in the Parcells mold but 3 games into a career and a season and the fumbles / dropped passes alone plants an ass on the pine for lack of reliability. You get 3 downs to make something happen. There are no throwaway downs or justifiable dropped passes, let alone fumbles lost.

Carter > Hall until such time as this is corrected, in my book.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Vader said:

Fumbles

• Hall:  1
• Carter:  0

Dropped Passes

• Hall:  4 (leads league)
• Carter:  0

Broken Tackles

• Hall:  1
• Carter:  4

Tackle for Loss

• Hall:  4
• Carter:  3

Call me old school or in the Parcells mold but 3 games into a career and a season and the fumbles / dropped passes alone plants an ass on the pine for lack of reliability. You get 3 downs to make something happen. There are no throwaway downs or justifiable dropped passes, let alone fumbles lost.

Carter > Hall until such time as this is corrected, in my book.

Call me crazy but I like productivity.

Rookie RBs tend to fumble and drop passes here and there.  That’ll get corrected much faster than Carter becomes “explosive”.

Hall is the better back, and the gap between them will only widen over the course of the season.  Kid should get a 60/40 snap edge at minimum.  

[Vader]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Call me crazy but I like productivity.

Rookie RBs tend to fumble and drop passes here and there.  That’ll get corrected much faster than Carter becomes “explosive”.

What productivity? He’s done nothing in this league yet. He has more negative plays than positive plays. The difference in the performance metrics between them is negligible.

There are no throwaway downs in the NFL.

You literally cannot fumble the ball and give away possessions.

You can not lead the league in dropped passes and be called productive.

He’s a net negative right now whose performance is easily replaced by an actually reliable player. That’s a no brainer. 

Yes, he will get better,and he may be better than carter. Maybe marginally. Maybe by a lot.

Right now he has more dropped passes than games played. He is not better. JMHO

 

[slimjasi]

13 minutes ago, Vader said:

What productivity? He’s done nothing in this league yet. He has more negative plays than positive plays. The difference in the performance metrics between them is negligible.

There are no throwaway downs in the NFL.

You literally cannot fumble the ball and give away possessions.

You can not lead the league in dropped passes and be called productive.

He’s a net negative right now whose performance is easily replaced by an actually reliable player. That’s a no brainer. 

Yes, he will get better,and he may be better than carter. Maybe marginally. Maybe by a lot.

Right now he has more dropped passes than games played. He is not better. JMHO

 

He has one fumble - in his first career game. 

Drops have to be corrected but those are easily corrected with time. 
 

He should, at the very least, be getting more carries. He’s a big run waiting to happen. 
 

and btw, the differences between Hall and Carter in yards/reception and yards/touch are not negligible. What you can say is that it’s only been three games. But if those averages were to hold up over an entire season, those differences would not be negligible. 

[jgb]

6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

 

YPC

• Hall:  5.3
• Carter:  4.4

Yards per Reception

• Hall:  7.8
• Carter:  5.7

Yards from Scrimmage

• Hall:  213
• Carter:  196

Yards per Touch

• Hall:  6.3
• Carter:   4.8

Touchdowns

• Hall:  1
• Carter:  0

 

No, Carter is not better.

Stats are “literally worthless” for rookie players I’ve been told. 

[Vader]

8 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

He has one fumble - in his first career game. 

Drops have to be corrected but those are easily corrected with time. 
 

He should, at the very least, be getting more carries. He’s a big run waiting to happen. 
 

and btw, the differences between Hall and Carter in yards/reception and yards/touch are not negligible. What you can say is that it’s only been three games. But if those averages were to hold up over an entire season, those differences would not be negligible. 

“We have a rule in New York that our backs don’t fumble, OK?”

“They may fumble some, but we have a rule that our backs don’t fumble, because if they fumble, they’re somebody else’s backs pretty quick.”

as for “more touches at the very least,” let him go back in time and catch those dropped passes and that’s four more touches. 

the fumble and drops (again, leads league) are pretty glaring as is the just single broken tackle he has.

Maybe he will get better. Again, if we were coaches we would have different styles.

[slimjasi]

3 minutes ago, Vader said:

“We have a rule in New York that our backs don’t fumble, OK?”

“They may fumble some, but we have a rule that our backs don’t fumble, because if they fumble, they’re somebody else’s backs pretty quick.”

as for “more touches at the very least,” let him go back in time and catch those dropped passes and that’s four more touches. 

the fumble and drops (again, leads league) are pretty glaring as is the just single broken tackle he has.

Maybe he will get better. Again, if we were coaches we would have different styles.

Ok, coach. It was one fumble in his first career game. U sound ridiculous, IMO
 

and nice try, but I wrote “more carries at the very least” not “more touches.”  Hence, “he’s a big run waiting to happen” 

[jgb]

52 minutes ago, Vader said:

You literally cannot fumble the ball and give away possessions.

Actually, you literally can do these things, although they are undesirable. 

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Ok, coach. It was one fumble in his first career game. U sound ridiculous, IMO
 

and nice try, but I wrote “more carries at the very least” not “more touches.”  Hence, “he’s a big run waiting to happen” 

Just another guy screaming “cut him!” at the TV when a player has a miscue.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Vader said:

What productivity? He’s done nothing in this league yet. He has more negative plays than positive plays. The difference in the performance metrics between them is negligible.

There are no throwaway downs in the NFL.

You literally cannot fumble the ball and give away possessions.

You can not lead the league in dropped passes and be called productive.

He’s a net negative right now whose performance is easily replaced by an actually reliable player. That’s a no brainer. 

Yes, he will get better,and he may be better than carter. Maybe marginally. Maybe by a lot.

Right now he has more dropped passes than games played. He is not better. JMHO

 

Dude.  I just showed you how he’s been more productive than Carter.  lol.  Yardage, yards per carry/catch/touch, and a TD.  He has more yards from scrimmage despite only getting about 40 % of the snaps.  

That’s production.  

[slimjasi]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Dude.  I just showed you how he’s been more productive than Carter.  lol.  Yardage, yards per carry/catch, and a TD.  

That’s production.  

Carter looked like the better back in week 1

Hall has looked like the more explosive player since 

both will be good backs in the NFL. Hall has more star or elite player potential. Needs more carries. 

[jgb]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Dude.  I just showed you how he’s been more productive than Carter.  lol.  Yardage, yards per carry/catch/touch, and a TD.  He has more yards from scrimmage despite only getting about 40 % of the snaps.  

That’s production.  

What a numbers nerd. Players who fumble in their first NFL game should be immediately sent to IR for butterfingers. Let the Jets medical staff operate.

[Vader]

6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Ok, coach. It was one fumble in his first career game. U sound ridiculous, IMO
 

and nice try, but I wrote “more carries at the very least” not “more touches.”  Hence, “he’s a big run waiting to happen” 

I sound ridiculous. don’t make me laugh. Breece Hall isn’t the Eric Dickerson you are making him out to be. Not yet.

Sorry to have pointed out stats that don’t burnish Breece’s balls. They’re glaring if you see the games.

We have a difference in philosophy - I’m not ready to suck Breece Halls nuts just yet.

He’s already fumbled in the red one, and leads the league in drops. Catching the ball is football 101. Turnovers in the red zone lose games. This is the NFL, not 2nd grade. 

The little word police nonsense (touches, carries) is also unimpressive. 

 

 

 

 

[Vader]

28 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Dude.  I just showed you how he’s been more productive than Carter.  lol.  Yardage, yards per carry/catch/touch, and a TD.  He has more yards from scrimmage despite only getting about 40 % of the snaps.  

That’s production.  

Simplistic AF. Dude.

[Vader]

46 minutes ago, jgb said:

Just another guy screaming “cut him!” at the TV when a player has a miscue.

Right. That’s what I said. Or maybe I just said Carter’s the better back right now due to reliability. 

47 minutes ago, jgb said:

Actually, you literally can do these things, although they are undesirable. 

They aren’t just undesirable. They directly correlate to losing.

21 minutes ago, jgb said:

What a numbers nerd. Players who fumble in their first NFL game should be immediately sent to IR for butterfingers. Let the Jets medical staff operate.

Yeah sorry again for bringing a more complete statistical picture of the first three games to the thread. I was on the record wanting Hall in the 2nd. But I prefer realism when looking at a players performance.

[jgb]

17 minutes ago, Vader said:

Right. That’s what I said. Or maybe I just said Carter’s the better back right now due to reliability. 

They aren’t just undesirable. They directly correlate to losing.

Yeah sorry again for bringing a more complete statistical picture of the first three games to the thread. I was on the record wanting Hall in the 2nd. But I prefer realism when looking at a players performance.

No one is asking you to apologize but you have to expect to be challenged.

[slimjasi]

31 minutes ago, Vader said:

I sound ridiculous. don’t make me laugh. Breece Hall isn’t the Eric Dickerson you are making him out to be. Not yet.

Sorry to have pointed out stats that don’t burnish Breece’s balls. They’re glaring if you see the games.

We have a difference in philosophy - I’m not ready to suck Breece Halls nuts just yet.

He’s already fumbled in the red one, and leads the league in drops. Catching the ball is football 101. Turnovers in the red zone lose games. This is the NFL, not 2nd grade. 

The little word police nonsense (touches, carries) is also unimpressive. 

 

 

 

 

I’ve said my peace on Breece and I like both backs a lot, but “the little word police nonsense” wasn’t nonsense - you changed the meaning of what I wrote in a material way. Words matter! 

[Jetsfan80]

6 hours ago, Vader said:

Simplistic AF. Dude.

I'm a simple man with simple tastes.  I like yardage and points, and he's done better than Carter on a per touch basis as well (meaning even with the drops and fumble, Hall has been the more efficient back, too).  Hall has given us more than Carter to date overall and will improve much faster than Carter does.  

You claimed that Carter is the better back and he just isn't.  At best, you could say that incorporating all the information we have thus far they have about equal value and he's worthy of a 50/50 timeshare at the moment, with the edge in snap count increasingly favoring Hall the deeper we get into the season. 

It's OK to be wrong on this one.  After all we have 2 pretty good backs right now, something we haven't had in a long while.  We're all winners on that front.

[Jetsfan80]

6 hours ago, Vader said:

I sound ridiculous. don’t make me laugh. Breece Hall isn’t the Eric Dickerson you are making him out to be. Not yet.

No we're just all saying he's better than Michael Carter.  

I like Carter.  In fact, for the first time in a very long time I have not only one but TWO Jets on my fantasy team this year (both Breece AND Carter).  I just think Breece is at least a little better than Carter and it stands to reason that a rookie entering his 4th game will start to clean up the typical rookie mental mistakes and errors over time.  I don't see the issue with admitting this.  

Breece deserves about 60 % of the snaps and eventually he's going to get them.  They didn't use a high 2 on the kid just to bench him over some drops.  That's just silly.  

[jgb]

21 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm a simple man with simple tastes.  I like yardage and points, and he's done better than Carter on a per touch basis as well (meaning even with the drops and fumble, Hall has been the more efficient back, too).  Hall has given us more than Carter to date overall and will improve much faster than Carter does.  

You claimed that Carter is the better back and he just isn't.  At best, you could say that incorporating all the information we have thus far they have about equal value and he's worthy of a 50/50 timeshare at the moment, with the edge in snap count increasingly favoring Hall the deeper we get into the season. 

It's OK to be wrong on this one.  After all we have 2 pretty good backs right now, something we haven't had in a long while.  We're all winners on that front.

I bet he was surprised by the data and is having trouble just thanking you for compiling it and moving in.

[Barry McCockinner]

15 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No we're just all saying he's better than Michael Carter.  

I like Carter.  In fact, for the first time in a very long time I have not only one but TWO Jets on my fantasy team this year (both Breece AND Carter).  I just think Breece is at least a little better than Carter and it stands to reason that a rookie entering his 4th game will start to clean up the typical rookie mental mistakes and errors over time.  I don't see the issue with admitting this.  

Breece deserves about 60 % of the snaps and eventually he's going to get them.  They didn't use a high 2 on the kid just to bench him over some drops.  That's just silly.  

Not to mention it's kind of silly to trade up in the second for a RB and not ride him like the horsie he's supposed to be. I spoke out against drafting him because I think it's a bad use of resources. But now that we have? Use the hell out of him!

[Dcat]

7 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Carter looked like the better back in week 1

Hall has looked like the more explosive player since 

both will be good backs in the NFL. Hall has more star or elite player potential. Needs more carries. 

This can be a great RB duo if LaFloor can get the OL to cooperate.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Not to mention it's kind of silly to trade up in the second for a RB and not ride him like the horsie he's supposed to be. I spoke out against drafting him because I think it's a bad use of resources. But now that we have? Use the hell out of him!

Nearly every team uses a committee these days, and those that don't simply don't have a viable RB2 (often by design, since they have a lot of resources invested in the RB1) and/or have trouble keeping their bellcow healthy/fresh over the course of the season.  

So I don't mind a committee approach at all.  Particularly since I don't think Hall is necessarily built to be a bellcow type.  However, he should be LEADING that committee.  

He did get 51 % of the snaps this past week (after only receiving 27 % the prior week) so that's certainly a step in the right direction.

[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

10 hours ago, Vader said:

You literally cannot fumble the ball and give away possessions.

[Vader]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm a simple man with simple tastes.  I like yardage and points, and he's done better than Carter on a per touch basis as well (meaning even with the drops and fumble, Hall has been the more efficient back, too).  Hall has given us more than Carter to date overall and will improve much faster than Carter does.  

You claimed that Carter is the better back and he just isn't.  At best, you could say that incorporating all the information we have thus far they have about equal value and he's worthy of a 50/50 timeshare at the moment, with the edge in snap count increasingly favoring Hall the deeper we get into the season. 

It's OK to be wrong on this one.  After all we have 2 pretty good backs right now, something we haven't had in a long while.  We're all winners on that front.

You’re right. If you just exclude the stats that show Breece Hall realistically, warts and all, he:

• has no red zone fumbles,
• doesn’t lead the league in dropped passes, (4) 
• doesn’t have less broken tackles, etc. 

Of course.

In my NFL red zone turnovers and drops exist. Maybe they don’t in yours. 

Does he have potential? Yeah.

But has he been a reliable back to this point? Not really.

I would not consider him the better option over the first three weeks for all of those reasons and the others.

I also don’t see the underutilization. He has 7 fewer carries than Carter, but 5 more pass targets. It’s been a wash.

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, Vader said:

You’re right. If you just exclude the stats that show Breece Hall realistically, warts and all, he:

• has no red zone fumbles,
• doesn’t lead the league in dropped passes, (4) 
• doesn’t have less broken tackles, etc. 

Of course.

In my NFL red zone turnovers and drops exist. Maybe they don’t in yours. 

Does he have potential? Yeah.

But has he been a reliable back to this point? Not really.

I would not consider him the better option over the first three weeks for all of those reasons and the others.

I also don’t see the underutilization. He has 7 fewer carries than Carter, but 5 more pass targets. It’s been a wash.

 

None of this explains how he's produced more yardage and points despite fewer touches and only 40 % of the snaps. 

He's been targeted more in the pass game because...guess what!...He's a better receiving option than Carter!  Did I just blow your mind?

And why do we accept the warts?  Because they're to be expected out of rookie RB's.  You bake that into the equation, and its exactly why Carter started the season as the RB1.  He won't, however, finish the season as the RB1.

If his upside didn't overcome those warts I'd be right there with you saying Carter is the better option.  But when he's touched the ball he's done more with it, on the whole, than Carter.  Period.  That's why I think he's the better back already and that gap will only continue to widen as he cleans up the mistakes.  

Just take the L on this one my man.  

[Vader]

9 hours ago, slimjasi said:

I’ve said my peace on Breece and I like both backs a lot, but “the little word police nonsense” wasn’t nonsense - you changed the meaning of what I wrote in a material way. Words matter! 

It’s irrelevant. Didn’t substitute touches for carries on purpose but it is actually a more relevant metric. 

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm a simple man with simple tastes.  I like yardage and points, and he's done better than Carter on a per touch basis as well (meaning even with the drops and fumble, Hall has been the more efficient back, too).  Hall has given us more than Carter to date overall and will improve much faster than Carter does.  

You claimed that Carter is the better back and he just isn't.  At best, you could say that incorporating all the information we have thus far they have about equal value and he's worthy of a 50/50 timeshare at the moment, with the edge in snap count increasingly favoring Hall the deeper we get into the season. 

It's OK to be wrong on this one.  After all we have 2 pretty good backs right now, something we haven't had in a long while.  We're all winners on that front.

And I Iike Burger King. If only I could magically speculate the cholesterol, calories, fat and additives away. Like they don’t exist.

Maybe he will get better and get more snaps. I’m not saying he won’t. I’m saying the red zone fumble, drops are killers, and in assessing weeks 1-3 performance they can’t just be wished away or glossed over. These are professionals. It’s not pop warner. 

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No we're just all saying he's better than Michael Carter.  

I like Carter.  In fact, for the first time in a very long time I have not only one but TWO Jets on my fantasy team this year (both Breece AND Carter).  I just think Breece is at least a little better than Carter and it stands to reason that a rookie entering his 4th game will start to clean up the typical rookie mental mistakes and errors over time.  I don't see the issue with admitting this.  

Breece deserves about 60 % of the snaps and eventually he's going to get them.  They didn't use a high 2 on the kid just to bench him over some drops.  That's just silly.  

This thread is obviously feedback loop. Michael Carter was a 3rd round pick. Alvin Kamara was what 4th? 5th? Whats the point. No one said bench him. I contested that Breece Hall has been unassailably better through week 3 based on real facts. I understand those facts counter the thread’s narrative.

2 hours ago, jgb said:

I bet he was surprised by the data and is having trouble just thanking you for compiling it and moving in.

My initial post presented a counter to his post. Not vice versa…

2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Not to mention it's kind of silly to trade up in the second for a RB and not ride him like the horsie he's supposed to be. I spoke out against drafting him because I think it's a bad use of resources. But now that we have? Use the hell out of him!

I advocated for drafting him in the second if not the first. Feel free to look up those draft threads. I expected better through week 3. The point is to win. You play the players that mitigate mistakes and make it more likely to win. Not screwing up is the baseline at the NFL level.

It’s tolerance of these mistakes that has made this team terrible. 

Missed tackles, dropped passes, turnovers, missed assignments, mental mistakes. 

That’s why I mentioned Parcells. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Vader said:

It’s tolerance of these mistakes that has made this team terrible. 

Missed tackles, dropped passes, turnovers, missed assignments, mental mistakes. 

That’s why I mentioned Parcells. 

Lack of talent is the larger reason why this team has been terrible.

Hall is finally a breath of fresh air in that department and you're already hammering him for a fumble and some dropped passes 3 weeks into his career.  As if no rookie RB has ever done that before.

Yeah, I'd like Parcells to walk through that door too.  He's not.  And very few coaches around the league are like Parcells either.  Some of them are, amazingly, still successful all the same!

If you cut or benched players who made mistakes on this team like Parcells would, you wouldn't have a roster to send out there.  

[Barry McCockinner]

 

[FidelioJet]

On 9/26/2022 at 2:10 PM, Green Ghost said:

We played 3 games now. Have we had the lead more than 5 minutes all year?

I believe we've had a lead for :21 all year.

[slimjasi]

9 minutes ago, Vader said:

It’s irrelevant. Didn’t substitute touches for carries on purpose but it is actually a more relevant metric. 

And I Iike Burger King. If only I could magically speculate the cholesterol, calories, fat and additives away. Like they don’t exist.

Maybe he will get better and get more snaps. I’m not saying he won’t. I’m saying the red zone fumble, drops are killers, and in assessing weeks 1-3 performance they can’t just be wished away or glossed over. These are professionals. It’s not pop warner. 

This thread is obviously feedback loop. Michael Carter was a 3rd round pick. Alvin Kamara was what 4th? 5th? Whats the point. No one said bench him. I contested that Breece Hall has been unassailably better through week 3 based on real facts. I understand those facts counter the thread’s narrative.

My initial post presented a counter to his post. Not vice versa…

I advocated for drafting him in the second if not the first. Feel free to look up those draft threads. I expected better through week 3. The point is to win. You play the players that mitigate mistakes and make it more likely to win. Not screwing up is the baseline at the NFL level.

It’s tolerance of these mistakes that has made this team terrible. 

Missed tackles, dropped passes, turnovers, missed assignments, mental mistakes. 

That’s why I mentioned Parcells. 

No, no, no.

It wasn't irrelevant to what I was saying. 

I'm of the opinion that Breece Hall needs more carries, in particular. Tbh, I suspect the coaching staff agrees with me, as he's gotten an extra carry in each successive game. I think you want to give Breece Hall double digit carries in every game we play. 

[Vader]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

None of this explains how he's produced more yardage and points despite fewer touches and only 40 % of the snaps. 

He's been targeted more in the pass game because...guess what!...He's a better receiving option than Carter!  Did I just blow your mind?

And why do we accept the warts?  Because they're to be expected out of rookie RB's.  You bake that into the equation, and its exactly why Carter started the season as the RB1.  He won't, however, finish the season as the RB1.

If his upside didn't overcome those warts I'd be right there with you saying Carter is the better option.  But when he's touched the ball he's done more with it, on the whole, than Carter.  Period.  That's why I think he's the better back already and that gap will only continue to widen as he cleans up the mistakes.  

Just take the L on this one my man.  

Jesus, you really are overcompensating.

Again, the post I originally countered stated that Hall HAS BEEN, SO FAR the better back. I’m not going to engage in speculation, gaslighting or wishful thinking.  

I countered that at the NFL level things like red zone fumbles and dropped passes matter (I mean, this has been really ugly and glaring — and unsurprisingly, he leads league w 4 through just 3 games). As do broken tackles. 

So I will repeat my original claim. Breece Hall has not been the better player based on weeks 1-3 performance. That’s my plainly stated, non-speculative and only contention. 

[Vader]

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Lack of talent is the larger reason why this team has been terrible.

Hall is finally a breath of fresh air in that department and you're already hammering him for a fumble and some dropped passes 3 weeks into his career.  As if no rookie RB has ever done that before.

Yeah, I'd like Parcells to walk through that door too.  He's not.  And very few coaches around the league are like Parcells either.  Some of them are, amazingly, still successful all the same!

If you cut or benched players who made mistakes on this team like Parcells would, you wouldn't have a roster to send out there.  

You can keep repeating yourself. I never said bench him. I said the data presented is not the full picture. I provided some additional metrics. And said he has not been better through week 3.

I think coaching, culture and management have been just as key if not more key to this teams epic stretch of crap.

[Vader]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

No, no, no.

It wasn't irrelevant to what I was saying. 

I'm of the opinion that Breece Hall needs more carries, in particular. Tbh, I suspect the coaching staff agrees with me, as he's gotten an extra carry in each successive game. I think you want to give Breece Hall double digit carries in every game we play. 

That’s probably ideal - i agree. I think the CS views Hall as equally dangerous in the passing game though (which is why he has around 33% more targets than Carter in the passing game) 

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Vader said:

That’s probably ideal - i agree. I think the CS views Hall as equally dangerous in the passing game though (which is why he has around 33% more targets than Carter in the passing game) 

True and some of the short passes are de facto runs, anyway.