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what are expectations for zach for this year?


batman10023
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so, let's assume that Zach plays the remaining games - assume no injuries.

i'd be interested to see 

1) what do folks want from him  (yards, td/int (ratio or absolute), completion percentage, etc) to say he's the guy and not pick up a new QB next year?

2) what do folks expect him to do.

 

i haven't seen a thread specifically addressing this question.  

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To think there’s a chance he’s the guy to the point that they should sign him to market rate for a franchise QB and think they can be a successful team with him getting paid at that rate? I’d want to see a 3:1 TD/INT ratio and 7.5 YPA.

Rationale is that Jared Goff as a second year QB went 28:7 with 8.0 YPA and Carson Wentz as a second year QB was 33:7 with 7.5 YPA. Neither lit the world on fire as a rookie and neither turned out to be a legitimate franchise QB but both are still borderline NFL starters. So I went with the lower end on YPA and gave a little room on TD:INT.

It’s different if he’s pushing the ball down field and throwing lots of touchdowns or more YPA but more picks too so it’s tough to pick hard and fast figures. I wouldn’t be mad about 35 TD’s and 17 INT’s in 14 games with an 8.0 YPA, for example.

Team around a guy on his rookie deal is the best his supporting cast is going to get. It’s why the Browns (correctly) didn’t want to pay Mayfield and he’s somewhere around average. Posted in another thread today - there are QB’s teams can win with and QB’s teams can win because of. I think the rookie deal let’s you see if you can win with a guy and once he’s on a second contract you see if you can win because of him, because he’s getting 10-15% of the cap that was going to other guys who made the team better on that second deal.

Long answer for the first part. For the second part, I expect around a 3:2 TD:INT and 6.8 YPA. Something like 15-18 TD’s and 10-12 picks if he plays the 14 games. Improvement, but not to the level I’d want to see to think he’s got a shot to be a legitimate franchise guy.

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Steady improvement fewer errors and turnovers. Success at moving the offense effectively and the ability to put 7s on the board. I’m not saying he’ll be impact yet that could take a few more years. That’s what we’re hoping for now let’s see what we get from him. 

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41 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

With how we're throwing so much...

4k yards, 25+ TD passes and 2:1 TD to INT ratio would be the acceptable rest of the season.

I'm nervous he won't break 3200 yards and 20 TD's...

wow, that's a high bar.  works out to 4845 yards over 17 games which would land him right at Mahomes level from last year (4th overall).

your 3200 pencils out to around where ryan, garoppolo, mac jones, murray for the year 3875, 23 tds...

my guess is they would be happy with 3200, 20 and 10 int for the rest of the year.

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Looking forward to seeing those that think he will suck answer the first question.

Nice thread to consolidate eveyone’s expectations

Put this in a different thread but here it is. What I want and need over 14 games

- ~3,500 Yards: 7.2 YPA with at least 30 attempts per game. I’ll assume 35

- 2:1 TD/INT: The ratio means more to me. But I’ll say 18 TDs to 9 INTs not including rushing TDs

- 65% completion percentage.

- 70+ PFF grade

- Using his legs to manipulate around the pocket as well as put additional pressure on defense

- Make throws all over the field. A check down king is not going to cut it
 

This to me is the baseline of what a good starting QB should be doing. Hit this and I will be excited. Then we can debate year 3 expectations.

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32 minutes ago, derp said:

To think there’s a chance he’s the guy to the point that they should sign him to market rate for a franchise QB and think they can be a successful team with him getting paid at that rate? I’d want to see a 3:1 TD/INT ratio and 7.5 YPA.

Rationale is that Jared Goff as a second year QB went 28:7 with 8.0 YPA and Carson Wentz as a second year QB was 33:7 with 7.5 YPA. Neither lit the world on fire as a rookie and neither turned out to be a legitimate franchise QB but both are still borderline NFL starters. So I went with the lower end on YPA and gave a little room on TD:INT.

It’s different if he’s pushing the ball down field and throwing lots of touchdowns or more YPA but more picks too so it’s tough to pick hard and fast figures. I wouldn’t be mad about 35 TD’s and 17 INT’s in 14 games with an 8.0 YPA, for example.

Team around a guy on his rookie deal is the best his supporting cast is going to get. It’s why the Browns (correctly) didn’t want to pay Mayfield and he’s somewhere around average. Posted in another thread today - there are QB’s teams can win with and QB’s teams can win because of. I think the rookie deal let’s you see if you can win with a guy and once he’s on a second contract you see if you can win because of him, because he’s getting 10-15% of the cap that was going to other guys who made the team better on that second deal.

Long answer for the first part. For the second part, I expect around a 3:2 TD:INT and 6.8 YPA. Something like 15-18 TD’s and 10-12 picks if he plays the 14 games. Improvement, but not to the level I’d want to see to think he’s got a shot to be a legitimate franchise guy.

your second part, i think they bring someone in at case.  that's what like 200 yards per game  (30 attempts).   that isn't good enough unless the OT sustains more injuries or some other reason.

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Just now, slimjasi said:

>60% completion percentage 

>7.0 yards/attempt 

a minimum 2:1 TD/INT ratio 

This is my holy trinity for QBs. He needs to hit a minimum of 2 of these 3 benchmarks. 

That's basic suck in today's NFL.  

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4 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Looking to see those that think he will suck answer the first question.

Nice thread to consolidate eveyone’s expectations

Put this in a different thread but here it is. What I want and need over 14 games

- ~3,500 Yards: 7.2 YPA with at least 30 attempts per game. I’ll assume 35

- 2:1 TD/INT: The ratio means more to me. But I’ll say 18 TDs to 9 INTs not including rushing TDs

- 65% completion percentage.

- 70+ PFF grade

- Using his legs to manipulate around the pocket as well as put additional pressure on defense

- Make throws all over the field. A check down king is not going to cut it
 

This to me is the baseline of what a good starting QB should be doing. Hit this and I will be excited.

 

this is roughly what mac jones did last year from quick glance.

i am afraid he will throw more INTs... even though he hasn't thrown one in 170 attempts.

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7 minutes ago, Biggs said:

That's basic suck in today's NFL.  

Eh, not really? 

For example, last season: Josh Allen only had 6.8 yards/attempt (below my benchmark), 63% completion percentage (slightly over my benchmark), and a TD/INT ratio of 2.4 (slightly above my benchmark) 

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Take control of the offense, command the huddle, get the ball to open man. Don’t think every play has to be a HR, but with the talent you now have, expect that there will be many more opportunities to make plays. Trust your ability and your guys. Be something  that this  team doesn’t have, a leader.

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3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Eh, not really? 

For example, last season: Josh Allen only had 6.7 yards/attempt (below my benchmark), 63% completion percentage (slightly over my benchmark), and a TD/INT ratio of 2.4 (slightly above my benchmark) 

I am genuinely surprised Allen's YPA was that low. Good example of needing to see the whole picture and not a couple of stats. 

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3500 yards, 2:1 INT ratio with around 7 yards per attempt would be the hope. It’s not special bit it would be a huge step forward.

Gun to my head I’d say I’m expecting less than 3000 yards, 1:1 ratio if not worse and a sub 6.5 YPA. He’ll probably improve the numbers towards the end and offer false hope.

I’m willing to give him the chance but the Jets have long strangled any optimism out of me. I think the first few games will tell us whether the step up is coming or not. 

 

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7 minutes ago, derp said:

I am genuinely surprised Allen's YPA was that low. Good example of needing to see the whole picture and not a couple of stats. 

Stats are a very dangerous thing 

they can be incredibly useful but when taken out of context and cited by the average village idiot, can be as misleading as anything else 

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19 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Eh, not really? 

For example, last season: Josh Allen only had 6.7 yards/attempt (below my benchmark), 63% completion percentage (slightly over my benchmark), and a TD/INT ratio of 2.4 (slightly above my benchmark) 

Allen Yards/Attempt were bottom 3rd last year.  His completion percentage was Bottom third last year.  Now here's where he's an outlier.  36 TD passes and 6 rushing TD's.  He also rushed for 764 yards at a rate of 6.3 per attempt with 6 rushing TD's.  

Allen is a football player who breaks down defenses with a lot more than his accurate passing.  I don't think Zach is going to break down defenses like Josh Allen.  If he throws in the 30's for TD's with a TD/INT ratio of 2.4 I would be very happy.  If he's throwing for 15TD's with the same ratio and the O sucks very different story.   TD to INT ratio is a very tricky stat.  I love Yards per attempt because you can have a less accurate QB moving the team the same distance or further down the field per attempt if he's average Yards per attempt are above average.   It's also likely that short completions add to completion percentage but doesn't necessarily move the team down the field.

I think comparing Allen or Lamar or the midget in AZ to an NFL QB that we hope Zach to be isn't very practical.    Zach is hopefully an in the pocket passer who can get outside and create but isn't a running QB who's taking on the front 7 on a regular basis.

My hope is Zach is more like Dan Marino or Aaron Rodgers.   No I'm not kidding.  

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46 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

wow, that's a high bar.  works out to 4845 yards over 17 games which would land him right at Mahomes level from last year (4th overall).

your 3200 pencils out to around where ryan, garoppolo, mac jones, murray for the year 3875, 23 tds...

my guess is they would be happy with 3200, 20 and 10 int for the rest of the year.

Fair points.

It's just if we're throwing 45+ times a game, dude should put up some good numbers with these receivers.

But I just feel like the the 4k and 25 TD mark (with 2:1 TD/INT ratio) would shut us all up and bring a general buy-in for the kid.

What you described, lets say 3200, 20:10, would keep the fanbase divided but probably keep the Jets organization believing for at least one more year.

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1 hour ago, batman10023 said:

so, let's assume that Zach plays the remaining games - assume no injuries.

i'd be interested to see 

1) what do folks want from him  (yards, td/int (ratio or absolute), completion percentage, etc) to say he's the guy and not pick up a new QB next year?

2) what do folks expect him to do.

 

i haven't seen a thread specifically addressing this question.  

1. What I want is competent modern-day NFL QB play.  ~64% Comp. %, ~250 Passing Yards, and a 2:1 to better TD:INT ratio.

  • 15 QB's currently have a Comp. % of 64% or higher (often much higher)
  • 16 QB's currently have a YPG of 250 or higher (several much higher, over 300).
  • 17 QB's currently have a TD:INT ratio of 2:1 or better.

2. What I expect is for him to play poorly.  <59% Comp. %, <200 Passing Yards, and a =<1:1 TD:INT ratio

With that said, he could very easily prove my "game 1" expectations for him wrong.  It's all in his hands.

I hope he has a monster game, I loathe the Steelers domination of us, and want to beat them VERY badly.

 

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I don't care about numbers you can tell when a QB can run an offense, knows the play book, and is accurate and makes throws on time....what I'm worried about is some people apparently can't since they thought he played well last year throwing ground balls all over the place. 

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He’s going to get sacked a lot and be generally ineffective otherwise. Brutal schedule ahead, especially defensively, and his OL is a mess. Related: post your favorite memories of Garrett Wilson’s Jets career, because it’s going into cold storage for the next few months. 

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Not so much numbers for me.

I expect him to hit receivers in stride more often than not. He was constantly throwing behind guys, particularly on crossing routes. 

Stop bouncing passes to the flats.

We have some talented playmakers, who, if you can hit them in stride in open space, they can do damage. Too many times did guys have to break routes and twist and turn to try and reel in errant throws.

I think those 3000 20/10 numbers are reasonable guesses.

Maybe a little higher if Wilson and Moore really get going.

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

He’s going to get sacked a lot and be generally ineffective otherwise. Brutal schedule ahead, especially defensively, and his OL is a mess. Related: post your favorite memories of Garrett Wilson’s Jets career, because it’s going into cold storage for the next few months. 

Highly doubt this Wilson is toooo talented, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s actually the opposite and Garrett becomes his favorite target, he can do it all and he’s the perfect bail me out type WR

just my opinion of course 

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Want 3:1, 65% comp, 24+ TDs in 14 games but most of all, keep drives going especially late into the game.  I can live with mistakes as long as the upside shows up to win games.

Expect less than what I want. It's just a matter of how much less.

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41 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

He’s going to get sacked a lot and be generally ineffective otherwise. Brutal schedule ahead, especially defensively, and his OL is a mess. Related: post your favorite memories of Garrett Wilson’s Jets career, because it’s going into cold storage for the next few months. 

You just want his mom and know there's no chance.

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