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Week 5 vs MIA; the cynics thread


Paradis
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3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If the Jets lose by something like 6 points or less and look competitive in the process, that would be good enough for me.  

I think I need the win to be satisfied 

We haven’t won a divisional game since 2019 - and those two wins were 1) when the bills rested their starters in Buffalo and 2) when we got a very fortunate PI call on 3rd and 15 to set up the GW FG. In the modern NFL, that’s a sick joke. 

We are also 0-2 at home this year. Time to win a home game and beat a divisional opponent like a normal NFL team 

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1 hour ago, jvill 51 said:

If you want to call the Cleveland game smoke and mirrors, fine, no issue with that. How was the Steelers game smoke and mirrors, unless we're taking the angle that any 4th quarter comeback is somehow illegitimate?

The numbers said the Steelers had a 90+ % chance of winning that game midway Thru the 4th quarter, and it took a late pick by Pickett making his Midgame debut to have a shot to win.

It was certainly less smoke & mirrors than the Cleveland game but there was still quite a bit of good fortune that helped give us that W.  

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51 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The numbers said the Steelers had a 90+ % chance of winning that game midway Thru the 4th quarter, and it took a late pick by Pickett making his Midgame debut to have a shot to win.

It was certainly less smoke & mirrors than the Cleveland game but there was still quite a bit of good fortune that helped give us that W.  

Not to be that guy, but I will be that guy when it comes to win probability numbers. There are 10 point 4th quarter comebacks all the time. If we automatically discounted those as smoke and mirrors because 90% of the time there's no comeback (or however they're calculating whatever version of win probability you're referencing), then we're discounting a lot of great wins from a lot of great teams / QBs.

They didn't also need the late pick to have a shot, I don't know where this idea is coming from. They got the late pick, and it helped sure, but if the Steelers had simply run the ball there and made a long field goal the Jets still get the ball back with over 2:00-3:30 left and 1-3 timeouts plus the 2 minute warning, with maybe slightly worse field position? If that scenario happens and the rest of the game plays out the way it did, are we now not going to call it smoke and mirrors? Seems pretty silly. And also gives little credit to the defense for making a play.

This wasn't a busted coverage, followed by an onside kick recovery and a short field drive, all inside of 2 minutes. The Jets drove the length of the field twice, and got a defensive stop in between. Idk, calling that smoke and mirrors and lucky renders any close game down to a silly tit for tat in which no side earns the victory, the other one just blows it.

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6 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

Not to be that guy, but I will be that guy when it comes to win probability numbers. There are 10 point 4th quarter comebacks all the time. If we automatically discounted those as smoke and mirrors because 90% of the time there's no comeback (or however they're calculating whatever version of win probability you're referencing), then we're discounting a lot of great wins from a lot of great teams / QBs.

They didn't also need the late pick to have a shot, I don't know where this idea is coming from. They got the late pick, and it helped sure, but if the Steelers had simply run the ball there and made a long field goal the Jets still get the ball back with over 2:00-3:30 left and 1-3 timeouts plus the 2 minute warning, with maybe slightly worse field position? If that scenario happens and the rest of the game plays out the way it did, are we now not going to call it smoke and mirrors? Seems pretty silly. And also gives little credit to the defense for making a play.

This wasn't a busted coverage, followed by an onside kick recovery and a short field drive, all inside of 2 minutes. The Jets drove the length of the field twice, and got a defensive stop in between. Idk, calling that smoke and mirrors and lucky renders any close game down to a silly tit for tat in which no side earns the victory, the other one just blows it.


Well the argument certainly can be made that most games are LOST, not won. 

Having said that, if “smoke & mirrors” isn’t the correct term to use in an instance like this, then I’ll just defer to what @Paradis said from the jump:  We need to see the Jets dictate things a bit going forward, not constantly needing a late comeback, etc.  This week would be a great time to see it.  

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2 hours ago, JiFapono said:

lol, of course your perspective is the "realist" while you ignore that Zach was 4-6 for 80 yards and a receiving TD at the time the Jets were up 10-0.

Look, this is just silly at this point and has nothing to do with 80 being weak and hedging.  I at least respect your negativity.  You're all in.  He's a little hedgy wannabe. 

 

 

Ok, well that's why I said "I think realist."

Do we really need to go over fact versus opinion with an Internet warrior like you?

Oh and I've said positive things about his Q4 last game and got called a Back Walking Hedger McHedgerson, as well. As the evidence changes, so does the opinion. We call this "being a grown up."

 

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12 minutes ago, jgb said:

Ok, well that's why I said "I think realist."

Do we really need to go over fact versus opinion with an Internet warrior like you?

Oh and I've said positive things about his Q4 last game and got called a Back Walking Hedger McHedgerson, as well. As the evidence changes, so does the opinion. We call this "being a grown up."

 

Weak.  Nobody has conviction anymore.

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1 minute ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

Exactly, you take the win anyway you can get it.

Winning sure beats losing but if I had to choose between a 9 win season where the QB isn't the guy and a 6 win season when it's obvious he is, I'd take option #2.

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2 hours ago, jvill 51 said:

Not to be that guy, but I will be that guy when it comes to win probability numbers. There are 10 point 4th quarter comebacks all the time. If we automatically discounted those as smoke and mirrors because 90% of the time there's no comeback (or however they're calculating whatever version of win probability you're referencing), then we're discounting a lot of great wins from a lot of great teams / QBs.

They didn't also need the late pick to have a shot, I don't know where this idea is coming from. They got the late pick, and it helped sure, but if the Steelers had simply run the ball there and made a long field goal the Jets still get the ball back with over 2:00-3:30 left and 1-3 timeouts plus the 2 minute warning, with maybe slightly worse field position? If that scenario happens and the rest of the game plays out the way it did, are we now not going to call it smoke and mirrors? Seems pretty silly. And also gives little credit to the defense for making a play.

This wasn't a busted coverage, followed by an onside kick recovery and a short field drive, all inside of 2 minutes. The Jets drove the length of the field twice, and got a defensive stop in between. Idk, calling that smoke and mirrors and lucky renders any close game down to a silly tit for tat in which no side earns the victory, the other one just blows it.

Agree completely. 
 

it should also be noted that we outgained the Steelers from scrimmage and won the turnover battle 

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

Winning sure beats losing but if I had to choose between a 9 win season where the QB isn't the guy and a 6 win season when it's obvious he is, I'd take option #2.

I have had enough 6 or less wining seasons to last a lifetime thank you...no

getting high draft picks does not matter.

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On 10/5/2022 at 8:34 PM, SickJetFan said:

call me a cheap whore but all I care about is the W and even if MIA forfeits to get it...Ill take it!

Can I call you a cheap whore and agree with you anyway? Damn I guess that makes me...

But hell to the yeah. A win is a win at this point.

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