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LeFleur: Terrifying analysis by Kurt Warner


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10 minutes ago, Irktusk1957 said:

Jet Nut is a good, faithful NY Jet fan. Don't micro his posts like some. Somebody had a 10-0 lead in the early 2nd quarter.

Curious, has Mike White ever caught a TD pass? :-)

Mike White caught a two point conversion on October 31st, 2021 and effectively put an end to the COVID pandemic.

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Why can’t this be a ‘both exist’ argument.

Clearly Wilson has mucho talent as a gunslinger and mobility and if there is a receiver anywhere on the field that is open (except 10 yards from him) he’s gonna nail it.

At the same time he needs work on mechanics(don’t know why this isn’t better by now) and processing. He knows it in his head but it hasn’t translated to the field.  
 

if it connects he’s gonna be a monster

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2 hours ago, batman10023 said:

How am I cherry picking.  I used every game of Allen’s first season and his first game of second season.   Exactly the same as Zach.   Rookies often have bad years.  You seem to ignore this point. 

Cherry picking is using a known statistical anomaly (like Allen) as your only comparison.

There are literally dozens of QB's with low Comp. %'s who failed for every rare Josh Allen who overcame.

Same issue when people us the "Well, Peyton Manning had a bad first year". 

Yeah, sure, but so did dozens of bust QB's who never recovered like Manning did.

2 hours ago, batman10023 said:

of course I care about his completion percentage and yard per attempt. 

Good!  I'm actually glad to hear that.

2 hours ago, batman10023 said:

I don’t know if he’s going to be good but he was trending higher last year and did okay his first game. 

I don't either.  

Bring on the Phins!

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16 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Zach Wilson had the highest time to throw among QBs who don’t actively run the ball last season.

I’d love to see what site you’re looking at with these time to throw stats. Is the bold a distinction that they’re making? Or is it purely yours? Because I understand that Zach isn’t Lamar or Josh Allen when it comes to running the football, but he’s certainly a scrambler. He’s not a statue back there. There’s no doubt watching him that he’s extending plays and generating his own time to throw, even if he’s not often a rusher. 

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22 minutes ago, slats said:

I’d love to see what site you’re looking at with these time to throw stats. Is the bold a distinction that they’re making? Or is it purely yours? Because I understand that Zach isn’t Lamar or Josh Allen when it comes to running the football, but he’s certainly a scrambler. He’s not a statue back there. There’s no doubt watching him that he’s extending plays and generating his own time to throw, even if he’s not often a rusher. 

PFF’s time to throw is measured from the time the QB takes the snap to the time he either releases the pass or crosses the line of scrimmage on a carry. The top ten TTTs last year were 1. Ian Book, 2. Trey Lance, 3. Jalen Hurts, 4. Jameis, 5. Justin Fields, 6. Lamar, 7. Zach Wilson, 8. Gardner Minshew, 9. Taylor Heinicke, 10. Taysom Hill. Zach Wilson had 29 carries last year. Hurts and Lamar had over 130. I was wrong about Zach being #1 in TTT for guys who don’t run the ball—that was Jameis. I don’t see how it’s even arguable to say that Zach holds the ball too long. Yes, he “scrambles,” but he scrambles backwards because—as Warner has shown—he doesn’t make his first read consistently. That’s called “panicking.” 

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3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

PFF’s time to throw is measured from the time the QB takes the snap to the time he either releases the pass or crosses the line of scrimmage on a carry. The top ten TTTs last year were 1. Ian Book, 2. Trey Lance, 3. Jalen Hurts, 4. Jameis, 5. Justin Fields, 6. Lamar, 7. Zach Wilson, 8. Gardner Minshew, 9. Taylor Heinicke, 10. Taysom Hill. Zach Wilson had 29 carries last year. Hurts and Lamar had over 130. I was wrong about Zach being #1 in TTT for guys who don’t run the ball—that was Jameis. I don’t see how it’s even arguable to say that Zach holds the ball too long. Yes, he “scrambles,” but he scrambles backwards because—as Warner has shown—he doesn’t make his first read consistently. That’s called “panicking.” 

So your distinction, gotcha. 
 
We all want Zach to get thru his reads faster. But for the time being, if this 66% pressure rate continues for any amount of time, I’m perfectly content to allow him to save himself. That’s what made his ****ty comp% palatable on Sunday was fact that a lot of his incompletions were him saving a sack. For a “non-running QB,” I think escaping that game with a single sack is commendable. 

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2 minutes ago, slats said:

So your distinction, gotcha. 
 
We all want Zach to get thru his reads faster. But for the time being, if this 66% pressure rate continues for any amount of time, I’m perfectly content to allow him to save himself. That’s what made his ****ty comp% palatable on Sunday was fact that a lot of his incompletions were him saving a sack. For a “non-running QB,” I think escaping that game with a single sack is commendable. 

Having a high time to throw on plays where you’re not going to cross the line of scrimmage increases your pressure rate. It’s not a positive. 

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10 minutes ago, slats said:

So your distinction, gotcha. 
 
We all want Zach to get thru his reads faster. But for the time being, if this 66% pressure rate continues for any amount of time, I’m perfectly content to allow him to save himself. That’s what made his ****ty comp% palatable on Sunday was fact that a lot of his incompletions were him saving a sack. For a “non-running QB,” I think escaping that game with a single sack is commendable. 

Until there’s some stability and continuity on the OL, the game plan needs to emphasize quicker throws to the TEs and rbs, get the ball out, roll wilson out, have the skill positions get yac.  That, with some power runs from hall, will open up the offense and give wilson more time.  They just can’t have wilson sitting back there counting Mississippi’s from play 1.

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On 10/6/2022 at 7:23 PM, FidelioJet said:

Zach is continuing to progress and showing EXACTLY why he was drafted #2 overall.

Surely he still has a LOT of work to do...But the "he's clearly a bust" thing is over.  The obvious potential is there, he's showing all the traits of a potential true FQB.  He started from a pretty raw place, with little talent around him and has shown substantial and obvious growth.

Zach picked up right where he left off the last quarter of last season.  Only difference is he has some talent around him now.

He will continue to progress.  It's obvious.   Even the Warner video wasn't saying he was bad - just pointing out where he could have been better.  That is MASSIVE progress.

The Zach is a bust crowd is running out of runway here. But @TomShane deserves a lot of credit for just showing up this week - Totally an "A" for effort from him with this 5 minutes of a half hour video schtick...

Many of the anti-zaxers have, predictably, disappeared this week - so good for Tom.

It's going to get harder and harder to even troll as the weeks go on and the progress continues.

 

It's not obvious that any player in the NFL (including Wilson) will continue to improve. The last start was a step in the right direction, but you keep repeating this mantra that a young player will obviously continue to progress and that's obviously not always the case. 

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1 minute ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

He is a second year player, of course there are to be plays where he isn’t reading a defense as well as a veteran… Joe Burrow led the leuage in INTs, how was his processor on those plays?

The concern some had with Zach as a prospect was that he played in a weird spread offense at BYU behind a very good offensive line where he didn’t face much in the way of pass rush pressure. He was sacked 11 times in 12 games in his last season there. It’s simply a bit of a red flag that he’s learning how to manage pressure on the fly in the NFL and is struggling to the degree he has. It’s not to say that he can’t or won’t get better at it; it’s that no one has seen him do it yet. 

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I see something somewhat terrifying here, but it doesn't have much to do with LaFleur.  For the people that think Mims should be playing, consider the amount of times that Warner mentions a receiver not continuing a route, quitting on something, or potentially running the wrong way.  That is why Mims doesn't play and this was with our top 4.  The truth is, Warner doesn't know the exact call, but he is making a pretty educated guess and I heard that more than that the play call wasn't conducive to WIlson succeeding.

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1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

I see something somewhat terrifying here, but it doesn't have much to do with LaFleur.  For the people that think Mims should be playing, consider the amount of times that Warner mentions a receiver not continuing a route, quitting on something, or potentially running the wrong way.  That is why Mims doesn't play and this was with our top 4.  The truth is, Warner doesn't know the exact call, but he is making a pretty educated guess and I heard that more than that the play call wasn't conducive to WIlson succeeding.

IMO, the same way a basketball team looks disjointed when the point guard is a ball-dominant mess, receivers on teams with bad QB play develop bad habits—drops, cutting off routes, not looking for the ball on the scramble drill, etc. Classic behavioral conditioning. Ball is snapped, you make your cut, look for the QB and the QB is running an arc fifteen yards behind the line of scrimmage on the opposite side of the field? **** it. Pull out your phone and start making dinner reservations. 

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12 hours ago, FootballLove said:

Man playing QB is pretty hard actually.

When LeFleur sends 4 or 5 guys out into a pattern plus 5 or 6 defenders that's A LOT of bodies running around that any QB has to decipher in under 2 seconds. Then align his feet and make a perfect toss. Every time. Over and over.

Having chemistry with is WRs is crucial too. If Garrett runs an 18 yard in, the throw to Garrett will be a bit different than say if Corey Davis is running that exact same 18 yrd in. Or Moore. Or Conklin. Yikes.

Seems like LeFleur is trying to simplify things for Zack by giving him a true #1 read and having the rest of the WRs run routes that clears out coverage for that true #1, making it as easy as possible for Zack to hit his first read. According to Kurt Warner it's when Zack's true #1 read is taken away, those other guys aren't running routes that give Zack an easy #2 throw.

The NFL regulation field is very big.   With a QB with a first rate arm who can exploit the entire field it’s almost impossible for 11 men to defend it.

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

IMO, the same way a basketball team looks disjointed when the point guard is a ball-dominant mess, receivers on teams with bad QB play develop bad habits—drops, cutting off routes, not looking for the ball on the scramble drill, etc. Classic behavioral conditioning. Ball is snapped, you make your cut, look for the QB and the QB is running an arc fifteen yards behind the line of scrimmage on the opposite side of the field? **** it. Pull out your phone and start making dinner reservations. 

So what you are agreeing to is Zach having a high time-rate to throw is not because of GOOD protection, but because of Bad (actually POOR) protection causing him to scramble and, per Kurt Warner, a bunch of the offensive game plan not getting receivers open, or bunching them together making defensive coverage easier is causing the higher incompletion/interception rate for a first year (14 starts) NFL quarterback?

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1 hour ago, maury77 said:

It's not obvious that any player in the NFL (including Wilson) will continue to improve. The last start was a step in the right direction, but you keep repeating this mantra that a young player will obviously continue to progress and that's obviously not always the case. 

It's obvious to anyone not dug in.  You can't see it because you're so dug in on him failing - that' it's very tough to see.  You can keep holding on to your hope - but I'm pretty sure you're wrong.  

He will surely continue to improve - wether he improves enough to become a true FQB is still a legitimate question.

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11 minutes ago, Irktusk1957 said:

So what you are agreeing to is Zach having a high time-rate to throw is not because of GOOD protection, but because of Bad (actually POOR) protection causing him to scramble and, per Kurt Warner, a bunch of the offensive game plan not getting receivers open, or bunching them together making defensive coverage easier is causing the higher incompletion/interception rate for a first year (14 starts) NFL quarterback?

It’s my belief that there are, at any one time, maybe two offensive lines that you’d consider “better than average” and that the vast majority of OLs are middling-to-poor. Pat Mahomes plays behind what you’d consider the best left-to-right OL in football, scrambles a hell of a lot, and his time to throw is still a lot lower than Zach Wilson’s. Wilson’s problem is that he’s not seeing his first read, bailing on the pocket, and making life worse for everyone. Even on the play designs Warner is complaining about, it appears as though the receivers are pulling up because they know they’re not getting the ball. The INT where everyone is killing Moore, Garrett Wilson is running wide open twenty yards down the field but Zach—well-protected on the play— doesn’t even look at him. 
 

 

F73E5D27-F075-46C7-9996-002631A83AA9.jpeg

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

IMO, the same way a basketball team looks disjointed when the point guard is a ball-dominant mess, receivers on teams with bad QB play develop bad habits—drops, cutting off routes, not looking for the ball on the scramble drill, etc. Classic behavioral conditioning. Ball is snapped, you make your cut, look for the QB and the QB is running an arc fifteen yards behind the line of scrimmage on the opposite side of the field? **** it. Pull out your phone and start making dinner reservations. 

This assumes the WR hears the play, knows what he is supposed to do, and can physically do it (nobody in his way etc...).  I think we take all that for granted since they make so much money and are professionals (supposedly the best of the best) but they make mistakes all the time and most of the time those mistakes go unnoticed and inevitably ends up QB fault right or wrong in his stats.  They only have a few seconds to hear what the play is and digest what they need to do X4 WRs OC is sending out at times then hut hut HUT...oh sh*t.

By no means is this excuse for QB or the OC though as the JETS are not the only team with this issue...;do better.

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14 hours ago, Warfish said:

Cherry picking is using a known statistical anomaly (like Allen) as your only comparison.

There are literally dozens of QB's with low Comp. %'s who failed for every rare Josh Allen who overcame.

Same issue when people us the "Well, Peyton Manning had a bad first year". 

Yeah, sure, but so did dozens of bust QB's who never recovered like Manning did.

Good!  I'm actually glad to hear that.

I don't either.  

Bring on the Phins!

You were the one who brought up passing completion percentage!

I just picked a qb that was viewed with uncertainty and in our division. 

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16 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It’s my belief that there are, at any one time, maybe two offensive lines that you’d consider “better than average” and that the vast majority of OLs are middling-to-poor. Pat Mahomes plays behind what you’d consider the best left-to-right OL in football, scrambles a hell of a lot, and his time to throw is still a lot lower than Zach Wilson’s. Wilson’s problem is that he’s not seeing his first read, bailing on the pocket, and making life worse for everyone. Even on the play designs Warner is complaining about, it appears as though the receivers are pulling up because they know they’re not getting the ball. The INT where everyone is killing Moore, Garrett Wilson is running wide open twenty yards down the field but Zach—well-protected on the play— doesn’t even look at him. 
 

 

F73E5D27-F075-46C7-9996-002631A83AA9.jpeg

I think him missing his 1st reads is more disturbing then this as he even said (and so did OC) in an interview

....paraphrase here: that he was to ignore his 3rd, 4th, 5th options if not needed.  The OC criticized him last year for trying to absorb everything on the field and trying to see too much.  He said dont worry about the FS if he in not in your 1st or 2nd read etc...

 

correct me if i am wrong there as I do believe both of them stated something along those lines in interviews before the season.  So they are teaching him to ignore some things essentially

 

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13 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

You were the one who brought up passing completion percentage!

Because Zach's completion percentage is a topic worthy of discussion.

13 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

I just picked a qb that was viewed with uncertainty and in our division. 

Which is cherry picking.  It's not a valid point re: the topic of Zach improving and/or the odds thereof.  

This really isn't as complex as you're making it at this point.  If we're still not on the same page at this stage, lets just agree to disagree.

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41 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It’s my belief that there are, at any one time, maybe two offensive lines that you’d consider “better than average” and that the vast majority of OLs are middling-to-poor. Pat Mahomes plays behind what you’d consider the best left-to-right OL in football, scrambles a hell of a lot, and his time to throw is still a lot lower than Zach Wilson’s. Wilson’s problem is that he’s not seeing his first read, bailing on the pocket, and making life worse for everyone. Even on the play designs Warner is complaining about, it appears as though the receivers are pulling up because they know they’re not getting the ball. The INT where everyone is killing Moore, Garrett Wilson is running wide open twenty yards down the field but Zach—well-protected on the play— doesn’t even look at him. 
 

 

F73E5D27-F075-46C7-9996-002631A83AA9.jpeg

Zach Wilson also didn't see a wide open what could have been a 88 yard TD to Corey Davis on the very first play of that QB School Analysis video of Wilson.

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10 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It’s my belief...

 

It’s my belief that there are, at any one time, maybe two offensive lines that you’d consider “better than average” and that the vast majority of OLs are middling-to-poor.

I think you're a smart guy, but to limit offensive line ratings to either a 1, 2, or 3 score bunches the jets into the bottom 15 teams who could have a rating from 0 to 33% on your scale, but probably more like 0 to 50% with the Chiefs above 95% and the 2's 50 to 95%. If you expanded the ratings criteria, say 1 to 10, Chiefs would be a 10 or 100%, on the curve, and the Jets maybe low 20's?

Pat Mahomes plays behind what you’d consider the best left-to-right OL in football, scrambles a hell of a lot, and his time to throw is still a lot lower than Zach Wilson’s. Wilson’s problem is that he’s not seeing his first read, bailing on the pocket, and making life worse for everyone.

Apples and Oranges. Mahomes sat a year with learning from an Offensive Genius and behind, I think, a very capable Quarterback in Alex Smith (he would be a 3 in your estimation. And I'm pretty sure they had a good offensive line back then too. Repetition breeds confidence, muscle memory, etc.

Mahomes has played in 64 games including numerous playoffs and 2 Super Bowls to Zach's 14 behind an atrocious offensive line, a new coordinator installing a foreign offensive system to Zach, and a <who's who of receivers.

Even on the play designs Warner is complaining about, it appears as though the receivers are pulling up because they know they’re not getting the ball. The INT where everyone is killing Moore, Garrett Wilson is running wide open twenty yards down the field but Zach—well-protected on the play— doesn’t even look at him. 

Missed open receivers happens EVERY game. Ask Russell Wilson, who has 160+ games, 16 playoff games and a Super Bowl ring, and apparently millions of viewers.

I didn't notice the purported poor route running by Moore during the game but after watching video explanations, agree if Moore pulled the defender into the end zone as supposedly drawn up, they would have had the ball inside the 5. End result we won the game but that "catch" might have changed the outcome in a Multi-Verse sort of way.

In the old "what have you done for me lately":  10/12, 130 yards, 2 TD drives works for me.

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29 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

I think him missing his 1st reads is more disturbing then this as he even said (and so did OC) in an interview

....paraphrase here: that he was to ignore his 3rd, 4th, 5th options if not needed.  The OC criticized him last year for trying to absorb everything on the field and trying to see too much.  He said dont worry about the FS if he in not in your 1st or 2nd read etc...

 

correct me if i am wrong there as I do believe both of them stated something along those lines in interviews before the season.  So they are teaching him to ignore some things essentially

 

 

10 minutes ago, Jet25 said:

Zach Wilson also didn't see a wide open what could have been a 88 yard TD to Corey Davis on the very first play of that QB School Analysis video of Wilson.

This bit from Rosenblatt’s latest is illuminating as to what Zach is seeing on the field. Noteworthy that the play they single out was against cover 1, which has been Zach’s nemesis:

<>3. Thursday, LaFleur was asked if there was a moment that stood out from the Steelers game as evidence that Wilson was showing growth from his rookie season. His answer was interesting.

He pointed to a third-and-10 pass late in the third quarter, when Wilson threw an incompletion on a checkdown to Hall.

Wilson went to the sideline, watched the play back with the other Jets quarterbacks and QBs coach Rob Calabrese. Wilson realized that if he had held onto the ball a little bit longer, he would’ve had a receiver open in the middle of the field — especially with the way safety Minkah Fitzpatrick was “sitting right there between the hashes,” LaFleur said.

The Steelers showed the same look again in the fourth quarter. Wilson capitalized this time, connecting with Garrett Wilson for a 35-yard catch-and-run on a crucial third down with 12:05 left.

“For Zach to feel space and get the ball where it needed to go, it was really cool,” LaFleur said.

“That’s very encouraging,” Calabrese said. “He had a feel for it, which is positive.”<>

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15 minutes ago, Irktusk1957 said:

It’s my belief that there are, at any one time, maybe two offensive lines that you’d consider “better than average” and that the vast majority of OLs are middling-to-poor.

I think you're a smart guy, but to limit offensive line ratings to either a 1, 2, or 3 score bunches the jets into the bottom 15 teams who could have a rating from 0 to 33% on your scale, but probably more like 0 to 50% with the Chiefs above 95% and the 2's 50 to 95%. If you expanded the ratings criteria, say 1 to 10, Chiefs would be a 10 or 100%, on the curve, and the Jets maybe low 20's?

Pat Mahomes plays behind what you’d consider the best left-to-right OL in football, scrambles a hell of a lot, and his time to throw is still a lot lower than Zach Wilson’s. Wilson’s problem is that he’s not seeing his first read, bailing on the pocket, and making life worse for everyone.

Apples and Oranges. Mahomes sat a year with learning from an Offensive Genius and behind, I think, a very capable Quarterback in Alex Smith (he would be a 3 in your estimation. And I'm pretty sure they had a good offensive line back then too. Repetition breeds confidence, muscle memory, etc.

Mahomes has played in 64 games including numerous playoffs and 2 Super Bowls to Zach's 14 behind an atrocious offensive line, a new coordinator installing a foreign offensive system to Zach, and a <who's who of receivers.

Even on the play designs Warner is complaining about, it appears as though the receivers are pulling up because they know they’re not getting the ball. The INT where everyone is killing Moore, Garrett Wilson is running wide open twenty yards down the field but Zach—well-protected on the play— doesn’t even look at him. 

Missed open receivers happens EVERY game. Ask Russell Wilson, who has 160+ games, 16 playoff games and a Super Bowl ring, and apparently millions of viewers.

I didn't notice the purported poor route running by Moore during the game but after watching video explanations, agree if Moore pulled the defender into the end zone as supposedly drawn up, they would have had the ball inside the 5. End result we won the game but that "catch" might have changed the outcome in a Multi-Verse sort of way.

In the old "what have you done for me lately":  10/12, 130 yards, 2 TD drives works for me.

I think we agree that the QB position has a gravity to it that impacts every other position on the field. I don’t think the majority of QBs in football have better or worse OLs than we do, and great OLs and horrific OLs are outliers. They’re all built to block for, at best, 2.5 seconds. None are built to hold up for 3.1 seconds. If Zach gets the ball off on schedule, the line looks better. I don’t think we need to entertain the “weppinz” argument for Zach, either. We know Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson are players. 

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12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

 

This bit from Rosenblatt’s latest is illuminating as to what Zach is seeing on the field. Noteworthy that the play they single out was against cover 1, which has been Zach’s nemesis:

<>3. Thursday, LaFleur was asked if there was a moment that stood out from the Steelers game as evidence that Wilson was showing growth from his rookie season. His answer was interesting.

He pointed to a third-and-10 pass late in the third quarter, when Wilson threw an incompletion on a checkdown to Hall.

Wilson went to the sideline, watched the play back with the other Jets quarterbacks and QBs coach Rob Calabrese. Wilson realized that if he had held onto the ball a little bit longer, he would’ve had a receiver open in the middle of the field — especially with the way safety Minkah Fitzpatrick was “sitting right there between the hashes,” LaFleur said.

The Steelers showed the same look again in the fourth quarter. Wilson capitalized this time, connecting with Garrett Wilson for a 35-yard catch-and-run on a crucial third down with 12:05 left.

“For Zach to feel space and get the ball where it needed to go, it was really cool,” LaFleur said.

“That’s very encouraging,” Calabrese said. “He had a feel for it, which is positive.”<>

well that to me is in direct conflict to everything they been saying in these interviews as far is "if your 1st read is there take it and stop trying to play hero ball" so in one of those clips Warner pointed out his 1st read was wide open running right in front of him only for a couple yards from LOS and Warner was saying "take it" but maybe that is bad play design and was not even his 1st read but just so happen to get open 1st...so Zach is waiting for his other option downfield to get open because it needs more time and it is his 1st read.

I guess what I am saying are they totally ******* with this kids head or does anything they do have any consistancy

 

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7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I think we agree that the QB position has a gravity to it that impacts every other position on the field. I don’t think the majority of QBs in football have better or worse OLs than we do, and great OLs and horrific OLs are outliers. They’re all built to block for, at best, 2.5 seconds. None are built to hold up for 3.1 seconds. If Zach gets the ball off on schedule, the line looks better. I don’t think we need to entertain the “weppinz” argument for Zach, either. We know Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson are players. 

C'mon Tom, he's not in the pocket for 3.1 seconds which is the basis of your complaints. The long scrambles bloat the time, he was under duress quite a bit.

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