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ESPN Analytics: 60.8% Chance Of Making Playoffs (Post Week 7) (Update: 72% post week 9)


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1 minute ago, jgb said:

Being Cimini, surprised it doesn't say "Jets have a 39.2% chance of missing the playoffs despite being 5-2."

:D 

My first reaction to this was, wow - look at this positive tweet by Cimini. Then I immediately went dark and figured he smells blood in the water with all the big injuries that hit us yesterday and is just setting the spike for later.

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2 minutes ago, GKnight83 said:

Sure, they are.  This is the opinion of brain surgeons like Cimini, Stephen A and Bucky Brooks.

The Drama Queen, Blow Hard and Could Not Handle it as a Player, Coach, Front Office Guy or ESPN Personality!

I don't believe analytics takes into account the opinions of talking heads but I could be wrong.

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1 minute ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I don't believe analytics takes into account the opinions of talking heads but I could be wrong.

And I am a fully certified Actuary.  I can tell you there is no way the Jets have a 60.8% chance of making the playoffs at this point.

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13 minutes ago, Bay Ridge Jet said:

Very very concerned about the defense Bill is gonna throw at Zach this week. We’re gonna have to turn them over to win 

To be honest - the pats defense isn’t better than the broncos.  If the jets keep to the run game and limiting Zach passing, they’ll be fine.  I don’t see the pats doing much on offense.

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I'm sure based on historic records?  Teams that are 5-2 go to the playoffs 60% or something.  Jets have a great chance but concerned about the key injuries to this team in regards to a playoff push.  Unfortunately, they dont have a QB to overcome the injury bug like other teams who may have been in this position in the past.  The 5 division games remaining on the schedule will make or break the Jets playoff chances. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, GKnight83 said:

And I am a fully certified Actuary.  I can tell you there is no way the Jets have a 60.8% chance of making the playoffs at this point.

Ooof, the test you take to be given that title I’m told makes Medical Board testing look like kindergarten in comparison, why’d you have to say that and ruin the rest of the season ?.

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1 hour ago, Bay Ridge Jet said:

Very very concerned about the defense Bill is gonna throw at Zach this week. We’re gonna have to turn them over to win 

I think Zach is ranked last in the NFL when blitzed so Patriots will be sending the house but hopefully we can counter it

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1 hour ago, JiFapono said:

I'm sure based on historic records?  Teams that are 5-2 go to the playoffs 60% or something.  Jets have a great chance but concerned about the key injuries to this team in regards to a playoff push.  Unfortunately, they dont have a QB to overcome the injury bug like other teams who may have been in this position in the past.  The 5 division games remaining on the schedule will make or break the Jets playoff chances. 

 

 

Wish the Patriots games in particular were more spread out. Those games are really the ones the Jets have to at least split to make a wildcard push since the chances we win either of the Bills games seems low at this point.

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Beat the Pats. I don't care how ugly it looks. Make it happen.

Agreed. Beat the Pats and lose to the Bills and we’re 6-3 at the bye with a 2-1 division record. Who on this board wouldn’t have signed up for  that at the beginning of the year or especially after being 1-2?

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6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Wonder how much it goes up if we beat the Pats this week.

Punch.  The.  Pats.  Right in their god damn noses.

Id' rather be complaining about an ugly win post-game than an ugly-loss!

They match up really well but I expect a very very similar game as the past few weeks.  A war of attrition for 3 quarters w/ the Jets pulling away in the 4th.

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On 10/24/2022 at 8:47 AM, GKnight83 said:

And I am a fully certified Actuary.  I can tell you there is no way the Jets have a 60.8% chance of making the playoffs at this point.

On the other hand, I would be confident that the Jets now have around a 60.8% chance of beating the over.

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On 10/24/2022 at 8:55 AM, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

Ooof, the test you take to be given that title I’m told makes Medical Board testing look like kindergarten in comparison, why’d you have to say that and ruin the rest of the season ?.

There are 10 tests.  :)

Sorry. maybe we can shift the debate to will the Jets win 7 games?

Then when we get to 7 we can shift up to 10?!

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  • 2 weeks later...
21 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

 

My partners and I ran our figures again yesterday.  

We are all former NYers who are Jet Fans.

The consensus is the Jets go 9-8 at this point.  This is not anywhere near 72%.  But a huge improvement!

We think ESPN has them going 4-4 the rest of the way.  

Just because they use the word analytics does not mean they are using valid statistical methods.

In any case - it has been and promises to be one heck of a ride!

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2 minutes ago, GKnight83 said:

My partners and I ran our figures again yesterday.  

We are all former NYers who are Jet Fans.

The consensus is the Jets go 9-8 at this point.  This is not anywhere near 72%.  But a huge improvement!

We think ESPN has them going 4-4 the rest of the way.  

Just because they use the word analytics does not mean they are using valid statistical methods.

In any case - it has been and promises to be one heck of a ride!

This is interesting.


Can you explain a bit about your model/assumptions for determining each win/loss?  
 

I believe ESPN just assigns wins/losses by who will be favorite in the game which we know from our first 9 games is not a good way of doing it.

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59 minutes ago, GKnight83 said:

My partners and I ran our figures again yesterday.  

We are all former NYers who are Jet Fans.

The consensus is the Jets go 9-8 at this point.  This is not anywhere near 72%.  But a huge improvement!

We think ESPN has them going 4-4 the rest of the way.  

Just because they use the word analytics does not mean they are using valid statistical methods.

In any case - it has been and promises to be one heck of a ride!

9-8?

We have the Jags (3 wins), Lions (2 wins) & Bears (3 wins) at home. 

Vikings and Seahawks on the road.

3 Divisional games on the road.

I have us winning the first subset and taking 2 of 5 away games. 

You must have us only winning the 3 home games.

 

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Going into this homestand I assumed a loss to Buffalo but if the Jets swept the Pats, they would make the playoffs.

Never did I imagine we'd be 1-1 this way. 

Still, it comes down to a week from Sunday for me to be a true believer. Beat New England and we will be in, 

 

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25 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

9-8?

We have the Jags (3 wins), Lions (2 wins) & Bears (3 wins) at home. 

Vikings and Seahawks on the road.

3 Divisional games on the road.

I have us winning the first subset and taking 2 of 5 away games. 

You must have us only winning the 3 home games.

 

The Jets have to beat who they are supposed to beat.  That won't happen. They will drop at least one of those games. But I agree ... they might squeak out another unexpected victory. Would love 11-6, expecting 10-7, can still see 9-8.

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