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Zach Wilson Thru the Denver Game (YtY Change in Passing Production Rankings)


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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

If we're going to talk about it most franchise QB decisions come from ownership

the way it went down no one had Zach in the top 10 of any mock draft in December. In January he's going 2 because everyone knew he was going 2. 

Ownership has to sign off on FQB decisions. I don't know how exactly maybe sponsorship had nothing to do with it but at some point around new years 2021 the Jets as a group decided Zach was worth this high pick and the mock drafts reflected that leak 

I didn't like the decision making process at the time but that's all in the past 

in the present he should be better than Bailey Zappe, no? There's no need to invest 2 overall draft capital for a guy who's playing worse than Davis Mills 

 

Not maybe on sponsorship.  Zero.  Nada.  Stop with the nonsense.  You cheapen your good analysis with this sponsorship stuff. 
 

I am sure woody signed off on Zach.   But he didn’t pick him. 
 

but your point on Bailey.  Yes.  Good point.  
 

 

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2 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

This is genuine insanity. 

My theory on ZW - in this offense they are looking for Tannehill #’s on good days.   Complete short passes, don’t turn it over, and let the RB’s eat.  On bad days they hope the big arm can maybe pull a rabbit from his ass and sneak a win (like Pit).  They didn’t draft Zach to throw 30+ times per game, they drafted him to be a more athletic version of Cousins or Jimmy G and are going to pound the sh*t out of the ball. 

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I mean we can be fair. Yesterday was a gigantic step back for Wilson. He was not competitive. The next 3 games in division are huge for Saleh and the state of the Jets. This isn’t about just Wilson anymore. This is a team sitting at 5-2 carrying a QB not playing well. If the offense sputters in the first half against New England Flacco needs to be loose at the very least. This is the first season we’ve made it to Halloween in forever, the Jets owe it to the locker room and the fans to put the best QB on the field to try and make the playoffs. 

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9 hours ago, SoFlaJets said:

I'm still looking for someone to give me the answer to the "When was the last time a QB on a 3 game win streak has not thrown for a TD in any of those games?

i couldnt find 3 but Mark Sanchez had 2 games. week 15-16 in 2009.

crazy thing in week 16 we beat the Bengals 37-0 and he passed for 68 yds. but he did what was asked of him. LOL 

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3 minutes ago, doitny said:

i couldnt find 3 but Mark Sanchez had 2 games. week 15-16 in 2009.

crazy thing in week 16 we beat the Bengals 37-0 and he passed for 68 yds. but he did what was asked of him. LOL 

That was an absolute shutout. I was so happy to be at that final game in the old stadium. Brad Smith went nuts. 

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16 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

I mean we can be fair. Yesterday was a gigantic step back for Wilson. He was not competitive. The next 3 games in division are huge for Saleh and the state of the Jets. This isn’t about just Wilson anymore. This is a team sitting at 5-2 carrying a QB not playing well. If the offense sputters in the first half against New England Flacco needs to be loose at the very least. This is the first season we’ve made it to Halloween in forever, the Jets owe it to the locker room and the fans to put the best QB on the field to try and make the playoffs. 

100%

i dont want to throw this year away to find out what Zach is. and hey he doesn't have to be benched for good. just a half. they could start him the next week. maybe it will light a fire up his ass. he has been given this job since day 1 and he has to learn he doesn't own it. he could lose it.

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3 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

You talk about context. What were Zach Wilson’s stats yesterday if you remove throws that travelled 5+ yards past the los? Seriously I really want to see that number.

He was terrible and your post above is ridiculous

- What about the context of what could/should have been a fumble return for a TD?

- Why is he constantly turning his back to the los under pressure? Why does he routinely fail to throw is away when pressured wide and often take needless losses? 

- What about every throw that went 10+ yards down field being laughably off target including a throw to Berrios in double coverage that went threw a defenders hands? What was the process they liked on that one?

- What about the constant off-platform throws, often under no pressure which miss wildly more often than not?

- Even his completions are often off target, including one of those oh so near Breece Hall TD’s, he made it a far more difficult catch than it needed to be. Where is that context? Mims’ “drop” yesterday is a play an NFL QB has to make 99/100 times - Zach has been missing them routinely going back to last season.

The improvement you speak of is in your head. His best game remains his first game and whatever work is being done to fix his issues isn’t showing up. You throw out names like Mahomes and Rodgers as comparisons and it reads like a parody, it’s impossible to conceive of those guys looking this bad.

Denver played to eliminate any plays downfield in a 2-deep shell, which is not uncommon for what they did this year. The game plan was to take what the defense gave us. If the game plan was to attack th short passing lanes how could you fault the player for playing within the game plan?

As far as the double-spin move, boneheaded play that he got away with. You want him to go down there but as we've seen several times this year he has the presence of mind to try and get the ball away to avoid the sack Sure I bet one of these days him turning his back to the defense will come back to bite him. It happens. When you have the athleticism to get away with those plays more often than not to avoid a -5 or -10 yard sacks you live with it. There's been no less than 8 of those plays this year that would be sacks if not for Zach's escability. If he takes a sack on that 3rd and 7 in the 3rd quarter, the Jets probably don't pin the Broncos and they land better field position. Yes it makes your heart pump but this is part of his game... I would rather him using the athleticism to try and throw the ball away than force a ball downfield, which is what he did too much last year. 

There were a total of 6 throws 10+ yards downfield. One was a throw away. The Conklin throw was a miscommunication; my problem with it is that Davis was wide open. The throw to Corey Davis that was high was due to the LB being present- tried lofting it over him but it resulted in the ball being too high for Corey Davis. Didn't love this decision. The pass to Uzomah was a flat out miss that he has to covert; threw off platform due to the rush and resulted in an inaccurate pass. The pass across the field to Conklin is across his body and doesn't look good from the broadcast view but there's no one there- no chance that's a turnover from the 22 view. The pass to Berrios was where the throw needs to be; soft spot in the zone Berrios has to catch that. The throw into double coverage certainly didn't look ideal in the broadcast view, but in the replay (and all-22) you will see that Berrios was held and couldn't run the button out. I didn't think it was pass interference, rather a holding call, but my guess is they call the PI because Berrios was the targeted receiver. Not a great throw nor do I like the decision in that situation, but on a 3rd and 17 need to throw for the sticks. 

The off-platform throws have not been very frequent this year. Way down from last year which it seemed like he would throw off platform every throw. Either way, did not look like throwing off platform correlated with inaccuracy or mistakes yesterday. Most of his throws that were inaccurate were on platform. 

The Mims drop yesterday was a clear drop. Same with Berrios. Any single reputable film reviewer will tell you that he needs to sit in that zone. If Wilson leads him, he gets blown up by the robber. 

Not once will you find me here saying he had a good game, but you like many others on here put words in my mouth because its convenient. You don't take the time to read and it becomes mind numbing. I'm pointing out that the sky is not falling the way many in here want to believe it is. The player is playing within the offense. It was not pretty against Denver, but we've seen far far worse. Last year he wouldn't manage games- this year he is managing them. Whether you like it or not the coaching staff is very happy with that. They acknowledge that it could've been better but also point to Zach doing what they asked of him... I don't know why it's so hard for people to grasp. I'm giving a perspective why the Jets are saying what they're saying and why they feel everything is OK and people aren't good with it lol. It is what it is; I'm not asking anyone to take my word for it- go speak to people who know what they're talking about I guess

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4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Since few QB's in the league have benefitted more from YAC than Zach Wilson this year, this is laughable my man.  

I can spin this in the other direction too:  Imagine what Garrett Wilson's stats would look like now if he was getting more catchable passes.  Even the carcass of Joe Flacco had Wilson looking like a stud.  Now?  Non-factor.  

 

  

That's fine.  And again, I take no issue with giving you and your independent QB coach the benefit of the doubt and assume the stats aren't telling the whole picture, and that secretly Zach is doing a lot of the "process" stuff right.

I merely took issue with the "night and day" comment, which nothing you've said so far has been able to back up.  He's not "night and day" different from last year.  He's a year 2 QB doing some things marginally better than he did last year, while still failing to pass the kind of eye test that even a top 25 QB would pass.

Independent QB coaches tend to see what they want to see just like the rest of us, even if they're drawing from a much greater knowledge base when they do so.  And like us, they're influenced by their pre-draft evaluations.  My guess is this guy loved Zach entering the draft.  Because otherwise there's no friggin way any expert/analyst can look at what Zach has done to this point in the season and come away impressed.

Wrong. It's not just people I have access to. There are many that have unbiased opinions on the player that have been highly critical of him last year but are speaking a totally different tune this year. I think a lot of fans desperately want to see high flying production so they refuse to look at the big picture and consider how people in the Shanahan tree evaluate QBs. They want him to be the vehicle to operate the offense the way LaFleur calls for it to be run. They want him to do the little things right, make the throws when they need him to, and manage the game when they're up. By no means am I saying it's been perfect or pretty, but it's largely what the offense has asked him to do. 

Last year the coaching staff could not get on the same page with Zach. It was pulling teeth because he did not play within the offense the way they wanted him to. They had to make all kinds of changes, including hiring his QB coach to help. The Shanahan offense is very demanding of QBs, but once its mastered it opens the doors to a lot of layups and high percentage throws if the right decisions are made, which Zach was not doing. This year that has not been the case by any means. Some missed throws, inconsistent accuracy, and a few poor decisions yes. But down-to-down the team feels he has made major strides and is playing within the offense far more consistently and is on the same page as his coaches. They think he's going to be a star. Whether or not they're right idk, take that however you like, but the people with the Jets feel his overall command and performance is night and day. You don't have to take my word for it, this is what the coaches are saying, this is what the analysts are saying, this is what the film reviewers are saying. I'm not some special source - it's out there in the public for anyone to find. 

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3 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

Hey lets see what Kurt Warner has to say......

Maybe he knows something about the NFL.........

 

curious.gif

 

AND THEN.......

 

 

your showing a tape from week 4? LMAO what does Kurt think of him the last 2 weeks? 

this is just like Sam Darnold. a flash of good/great play followed by garbage. 

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3 hours ago, maury77 said:

 

 

Assuming this is all true (and I'm skeptical), then the organization was a collection of fools for selecting such a huge project at number 2 overall. Additionally, weren't you the one telling us all prior to the draft that the organization loved Wilson because he was such a custom fit for the offensive scheme? If he was such a custom fit, why is it taking so long to see results from him?

Go ask someone who knows what they're talking about that you will trust because I can't waste any more words on this lol... I've addressed this painfully the past few weeks yet no matter what I share there's going to be the 50% who will rebutt no matter what, so I'm just going to keep to myself going forward 

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11 hours ago, Jetfuel66 said:

You should go and look at Josh Allens stats his first 2 FULL years, 32 games! 

Zach just started his 17th. Not every QB starts out hot like Herbert. Some younger QB's like Zach take a couple of years to get it and play well enough to carry a team.

 

I remember everyone was calling Allen a bust and screaming for his replacement, much like some of us here on this site every day. Imagine if the Bills front office gave up on him so quickly? Where would they be now?

I agree that the qb play needs to improve. I also know that Zach is very young and these things take time. We have to give this kid at least 3 years to develop. In spite of your stats there has been a lot of improvement in his game. Turnovers for one, and the kid has ELITE escapability and real arm talent. 

I cant predict the future, but there is a definite chance. A good chance that it will all come together for this kid at some point.

Lets not make a hasty, emotional decision, and ride him out of town just yet. Think about Allen and the many other QB's who have developed into great QB's in their third and fourth seasons.

Instead of ALWAYS looking for the bad in his game, take some time to see the potential and the improvement. You Zach haters will feel a lot better about things, I promise.

Agree 100%.  Although I do understand the impatience.  I felt it last week myself.  He's gotta start hitting on those easy completions.  That drives me nuts.  IMO, once the game slows down for him, it'll be like flipping a switch...horrid to acceptable (to start).  In the meantime, it's definitely a rough ride.

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20 hours ago, Lith said:

This is a scary stat.  He is good when the pocket is clean, but just awful when pressured.  Obviously he would be better if the OL plays better and gives him more time.  But in the NFL, messy pockets are a reality and making plays when pressured is part of being a good QB.  

We have all seen the escapability, but I cannot recall him making plays after escaping the pocket, aside from maybe the occasional scramble.  

Yeah, and the more he shows he can’t play against pressure the more teams are going to blitz him until he shows he can make them pay. He’s just so frenetic, instead of slowing down and making an easy decision he speeds everything up.

I honestly can’t think of a guy who’s overcome being bad against pressure. Maybe there’s somebody out there, but I think you either have that ability to make good decisions very quickly on a consistent basis or you don’t. Strikes me as more instinctive than something you can learn.

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22 hours ago, football guy said:

Go ask someone who knows what they're talking about that you will trust because I can't waste any more words on this lol... I've addressed this painfully the past few weeks yet no matter what I share there's going to be the 50% who will rebutt no matter what, so I'm just going to keep to myself going forward 

Thanks for all the posts man. I really enjoy them, and the majority of the board does too. Sorry that people come after you for posting things that don't align with their beliefs. Same thing has happened to other posters with inside insight, and with similar people involved.

Ultimately you're relaying and explaining information you hear. Complaining about it and being antagonistic towards it is a bit weird to be honest because it's not your problem at all. It's well constructed and knowledgeable content. We need more of that on this board so seeing it chased off is a bit sad. 

 

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On 10/24/2022 at 7:00 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

Especially since its clear in the numbers that Zach has benefitted from YAC (5th most YAC per Completion among qualifying QB's).  

He's also largely been given enough time to throw, contrary to the "he's running for his life out there" argument that isn't really backed up in the data when compared to another QBs.

Zach's dwindling group of defenders are running out of excuses.

Au contraire. The supply of excuses is endless. The credibility thereof is plummeting, however.

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3 hours ago, Grandy said:

Thanks for all the posts man. I really enjoy them, and the majority of the board does too. Sorry that people come after you for posting things that don't align with their beliefs. Same thing has happened to other posters with inside insight, and with similar people involved.

Ultimately you're relaying and explaining information you hear. Complaining about it and being antagonistic towards it is a bit weird to be honest because it's not your problem at all. It's well constructed and knowledgeable content. We need more of that on this board so seeing it chased off is a bit sad. 

 

Appreciate the words. All I’ve done is try to provide insight on the why. I don’t agree with everything the Jets do and I understand the impulse to be skeptical, cynical, pessimistic, and reactionary given our history, but the outright ignorance of context, process, and cause + effect becomes outrageous at times. Everyone just needs to be patient—what’s happening right now is par for the course. You want to see more, but it’s nothing to be alarmed over. There are very reasonable explanations to certain “unfavorable” metrics that those who favor stats and analytics simply won’t accept as anything other than a manufactured excuse which is unfortunate. 

There are plenty of games left and Zach is going to have his moments. If I’m a betting man I’m taking the over on 15 passing TDs, but what fans need to understand is sheer stats are not going to influence the Jets decision going forward one way or another, nor will they think it has any bearing on his future. 

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On 10/24/2022 at 9:36 PM, football guy said:

Go ask someone who knows what they're talking about that you will trust because I can't waste any more words on this lol... I've addressed this painfully the past few weeks yet no matter what I share there's going to be the 50% who will rebutt no matter what, so I'm just going to keep to myself going forward 

Your complete evasion of my question and opinion convinces me even further than I'm right. What saves you is that you seem like a bright guy and you write well, but your ego does not allow you to concede that you were wrong on Wilson with your pre-draft analysis of him so you make further and further incredulous statements. We all guess wrong on prospects. I thought Fields would be much further along than he is and, gun to my head, I'd say Fields has a less than 50% chance of ever being a long term franchise QB, but at least I'm honest about it. 

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On 10/24/2022 at 9:36 PM, football guy said:

Go ask someone who knows what they're talking about that you will trust because I can't waste any more words on this lol... I've addressed this painfully the past few weeks yet no matter what I share there's going to be the 50% who will rebutt no matter what, so I'm just going to keep to myself going forward 

Thanks for your insight man. This is one of the reasons why I just steer clear of the Zach debate for right now. People have their minds up already based on their own metrics and eye test and not exactly what the coaches are asking him to do. People want to see him put up the gaudy numbers like other young QBs( like Burrow and Herbert) but fail to realize that a Shanahan style WCO is predicated on the QB managing the game and orchestrating the offense within the flow of the play calling....most importantly taking care of the ball. I don’t even have a strong opinion on Zach yet. For the record I didn’t even want to draft him. But I’m reserving judgement till after the season when we can see the entire body of work. I think he’s made strides in managing the game but still has a ways to go till we can say he’s a franchise guy. That’s not gonna stop the ppl who see 10/18 for 108 yards from having their minds made up....it is what it is 🤷🏾‍♂️

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On 10/24/2022 at 9:48 PM, Supersonic said:

Agree 100%.  Although I do understand the impatience.  I felt it last week myself.  He's gotta start hitting on those easy completions.  That drives me nuts.  IMO, once the game slows down for him, it'll be like flipping a switch...horrid to acceptable (to start).  In the meantime, it's definitely a rough ride.

I remember Josh Allen's second season. There was a whole lotta ugly tape, but there were also a couple of ridiculous plays he made every game. We see Wilson maybe make a couple of nice throws a game, but the high end moments this year has been a couple of competent drives here and there. I'm not seeing the special plays.  

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Just now, maury77 said:

Your complete evasion of my question and opinion convinces me even further than I'm right. What saves you is that you seem like a bright guy and you write well, but your ego does not allow you to concede that you were wrong on Wilson with your pre-draft analysis of him so you make further and further incredulous statements. We all guess wrong on prospects. I thought Fields would be much further along than he is and, gun to my head, I'd say Fields has a less than 50% chance of ever being a long term franchise QB, but at least I'm honest about it. 

DM me. Not taking the time to read every response and volunteer insight when most people are going to flood my notifications with nonsense. Open to a direct conversation though- just send a DM and I’ll gladly respond

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15 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I remember Josh Allen's second season. There was a whole lotta ugly tape, but there were also a couple of ridiculous plays he made every game. We see Wilson maybe make a couple of nice throws a game, but the high end moments this year has been a couple of competent drives here and there. I'm not seeing the special plays.  

Either he's still scared to try and make them after being an INT machine at the start of his rookie year or the coaching staff is scared. This may be an unpopular opinion but I think the Jets shouldn't rush that much against the Patriots. They're going to try to take that strength away and Zach needs to learn to play more confidently and with more poise. If he sucks, he might as well suck big time in a game where the QB play is what's going to change the outcome of the game. I would rather see Zach on an extreme end of the spectrum than see him with a question mark after the game. I'm sick of the conservative playcalling that involves him throwing less than 20 times in a game. If he sucks, I want to watch him suck for a whole game, and if he's great I want to see that come out. I do not believe he is a done deal yet, but I do believe that he isn't going to improve with the playcalling going on right now. Coaching staff and Zach both have to stop being wusses and go out with a bang in this game.

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11 hours ago, maury77 said:

I remember Josh Allen's second season. There was a whole lotta ugly tape, but there were also a couple of ridiculous plays he made every game. We see Wilson maybe make a couple of nice throws a game, but the high end moments this year has been a couple of competent drives here and there. I'm not seeing the special plays.  

He's not seeing the field or reading the defense fast enough.  If he had better protection and was able to settle himself for a few seconds - instead of running for his life, I think he'd be doing better.  But we won't know how he pans out for quite a while.  My only hope is he's moderately better in game 17 than game 7.

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On 10/24/2022 at 10:18 AM, BigRy56 said:

The dude has a ton of work to do and nobody can expose a team's weakness like Belichick. Huge test coming up for Zach Wilson - play well and get a W on Sunday and he'll be alright

Pressure is currently Zach's Kryptonite... He'll see a lot of it on Sunday.

Needs to have a mix of the following:

  • a few answers after he escapes it and/or
  • quick throwaways. 
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On 10/24/2022 at 12:00 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

Especially since its clear in the numbers that Zach has benefitted from YAC (5th most YAC per Completion among qualifying QB's).  

He's also largely been given enough time to throw, contrary to the "he's running for his life out there" argument that isn't really backed up in the data when compared to another QBs.

Zach's dwindling group of defenders are running out of excuses.

Regardless of W/L this week we are going to be flooded with a lot of:

"he was running for his life" arguments...  pressure is something all QBs have to deal with...

Good QBs can relieve the amount of pressure by making a few plays under pressure.

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