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Breece Hall & AVT - "Black Sunday" Brings Us Back To The Principal Issue


THE BARON

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I've decided I'm going to refer to this last game as "Black Sunday".  Losing BH and AVT in one game is beyond bad,  It is downright cruel.
After absorbing this for a spell, it took me back to the issue that most of us were considering even before the season started.  That being, QB.
As amazing has BH has been, he none the less still occupies the position of RB circa 2022.  We all know how much the 2022 NFL values ball carriers.  And, there is justification for that position no longer being valued as it was several decades ago when the centerpiece of an NFL offense was the ball carrier.
AVT has also been fantastic, even when moved to the outside.  Regardless,  he was drafted as an interior lineman and will do his best work on the inside.  Once again. few teams if any are drafting interior lineman very high in the draft.  Even fewer are putting much cap space into their interior offensive line.
We, all of us know that the tasks of passing the ball and preventing the other team from doing the same is the way a contemporary NFL team goes with the the grain as dictated by the rules.  Any other general strategy is nothing short of adopting the methods of swimming against the current.  It is a flawed doctrine.  One that puts a team at a disadvantage before they even take the field.
Considering this, we see teams dedicating generous cap space to the appropriate positions.  LT, CB, Edge Rushers and, above all...
QB
Losing BH and AVT is only a season killer in the sense that it brings the Jets paramount obstacle back into focus...
QB.
The Jet offense was leaning on the running game and showcasing the brilliant skills of BH as a save for the lack of production at the prime NFL position...
QB.
And, not that the Jets will be taking on a team with a coach that is well known to confound shaky QB's and will be doing so without the assistance of BH, we'll get even closer to the all encompassing problem of not having a bona fied franchise...
QB
Again... It hurts to lose BH and AVT, but with medical technology and the apparent work ethic of those to splendid players, I'm confident that we'll see them back next season and after some time on the field, back to top form.  But, the Jets will still be lacking a...
QB
THAT is what Jets fans should *REALLY* be worried about.  There wont be any problem for me watching Wilson get further exposed this Sunday.  I just hope the GM is watching and planning.   2023 draft will be here around the same time that BH and AVT will be well on their way back.
Nah OL

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1 hour ago, THE BARON said:

JD has to admit that ZW was a bad pick and start researching the QB's that will be available in the 2023 draft.  He had bad picks with Becton and Wilson that many had on their "do not draft" list, but since then, JD has had a hot hand.  It is understandable that JD reached for Zach Wilson in his first year as Jet's GM.  They needed a QB and there was some reasonable substance to the hope that ZW's great physical skills that we saw at BYU would transition to the NFL.  It was a reach, but not such a bad one.  

Now, we can all see that ZW is not going to be a good NFL QB.  This coming NE game will be good for the Jets in general.  Without Hall, they will doubtless look to rely on passing a bit more.  Against BB, Wilson's issues will only be magnified.  I'm HOPING it will help JD resign himself to moving on and throw himself into extending his recent hot hand with the drat into 2023 with the QB being his next master stroke

Don't know who WE is or what DRAFT LIST you are referring to. As for what JD is doing? I'm sure he scouts ALL positions, despite what YOU believe.

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This is a good post and a relatively non-argumentative way to discuss the Zach situation. Personally I think all of the following items can be true.

1.  Zach really needs to step up the rest of the season.  I hope he does but im very concerned with what we have seen so far.

2. This team can still play meaningful games in december and needs to - JD is doing the right thing in keeping this team competitive, the times of tanking are over, the defense is very good and he has to prepare the other 51 guys as if zach steps up.

3.  Even if Zach steps up, we need to address QB in the draft or FA.  Just how much capital ($$ or draft capital) depends on Zach's performance.  We cannot go into 2023 with Zach and someone like Joe Flacco

4.  JD comes from 2 organizations in Phila and Baltimore where they built a team and found a QB outside of the top 3 in the draft.  Flacco and then Lamar (I know JD was gone) and then Foles and Hurts are the evidence that if you have a solid team, you can find a QB to win with that might not be Bryce Young.

5.  The truth is that aside from the years picking 1 overall when there is a Elway, Peyton, Luck, Stafford, etc. there is almost no difference in statistical chances of hitting on a QB at pick 3 vs the next 75 picks.  When you have already built your team, which JD has done a good job of, you can develop players like Dak or Hurts and possibly wind up with your franchise QB.  We have seen first hand how hard it is even for prospects like Baker and Sam who were pretty highly touted - projecting QB is the hardest FO task in sports so if Zach isnt the guy, but we have a young defense, WRs, RBs and all our picks, we can use our first to build the OL and our 2nd pick on a QB along with a FA like Mariota who may be able to put it together later in his career.  

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4 minutes ago, Biggs said:

I'm sure you considered Daniel Jones, Cooper Rush and Jalen Hurts excellent QB's last year.

The NY Jets with Zach Wilson starting are 4 and 0 and the NY Jets right now are one of the 10 best teams in the NFL.  

I knew nothing about Rush last season.  After watching one game this season, I liked him a lot.  Better than Prescott. It took me one game.  Just one.

I always felt Jalen Hurts would be a good NFL QB.  I was right.

I was POSITIVE Daniel Jones was flawed in a way that ensured he would never get the Giants past a good playoff team.  No pocket awareness.  He'll throw a bunch of nice passes and then, drop back, not see the edge pressure, get hit and burp up the ball.   I was right... BUT, Daboll and the OC know it and they are limiting his exposure in very cleaver ways.  

Wilson looks the same now as he has looked the first time out.  Issues with fundamentals, bails on a clean pocket, does not set his feel correctly after the expected excursion to his right, does not complete the progression before going mobile, constant ball placement and timing issues.  He is awful and getting no better.  

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1 hour ago, THE BARON said:

JD has to admit that ZW was a bad pick and start researching the QB's that will be available in the 2023 draft.  He had bad picks with Becton and Wilson that many had on their "do not draft" list, but since then, JD has had a hot hand.  It is understandable that JD reached for Zach Wilson in his first year as Jet's GM.  They needed a QB and there was some reasonable substance to the hope that ZW's great physical skills that we saw at BYU would transition to the NFL.  It was a reach, but not such a bad one.  

Now, we can all see that ZW is not going to be a good NFL QB.  This coming NE game will be good for the Jets in general.  Without Hall, they will doubtless look to rely on passing a bit more.  Against BB, Wilson's issues will only be magnified.  I'm HOPING it will help JD resign himself to moving on and throw himself into extending his recent hot hand with the drat into 2023 with the QB being his next master stroke

Shouldn't you HOPE that ZW steps up for the challenge?  you are a jet fan right?

>>>>I'm HOPING it will help JD resign himself to moving on

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3 minutes ago, Biggs said:

He's playing very well in year 4 with a one of the best coaches in the league.  He's developing into a very good starting QB.  Zach's future isn't done being written. 

Yes, he looks like a competent QB, but excellent? We shall see. As for Zach, it's too soon for judgement imho.

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7 minutes ago, Ken Schroy said:

Don't know who WE is or what DRAFT LIST you are referring to. As for what JD is doing? I'm sure he scouts ALL positions, despite what YOU believe.

WE are those of us who can see that Wilson isn't working out.  I'm educated, but not always professional with the way I express myself on a football forum.  I'm not getting paid for my fundamentals here the way ZW is paid to play on the field. 

Not sure what you mean by DRAFT LIST

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3 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

Shouldn't you HOPE that ZW steps up for the challenge?  you are a jet fan right?

>>>>I'm HOPING it will help JD resign himself to moving on

I sure as hell DID.  Even until this season began.  By game three this year, I was resigned to facts. 

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4 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

I knew nothing about Rush last season.  After watching one game this season, I liked him a lot.  Better than Prescott. It took me one game.  Just one.

I always felt Jalen Hurts would be a good NFL QB.  I was right.

I was POSITIVE Daniel Jones was flawed in a way that ensured he would never get the Giants past a good playoff team.  No pocket awareness.  He'll throw a bunch of nice passes and then, drop back, not see the edge pressure, get hit and burp up the ball.   I was right... BUT, Daboll and the OC know it and they are limiting his exposure in very cleaver ways.  

Wilson looks the same now as he has looked the first time out.  Issues with fundamentals, bails on a clean pocket, does not set his feel correctly after the expected excursion to his right, does not complete the progression before going mobile, constant ball placement and timing issues.  He is awful and getting no better.  

you should consider getting into the scouting business given how successful your analysis has been.

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7 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

I knew nothing about Rush last season.  After watching one game this season, I liked him a lot.  Better than Prescott. It took me one game.  Just one.

I always felt Jalen Hurts would be a good NFL QB.  I was right.

I was POSITIVE Daniel Jones was flawed in a way that ensured he would never get the Giants past a good playoff team.  No pocket awareness.  He'll throw a bunch of nice passes and then, drop back, not see the edge pressure, get hit and burp up the ball.   I was right... BUT, Daboll and the OC know it and they are limiting his exposure in very cleaver ways.  

Wilson looks the same now as he has looked the first time out.  Issues with fundamentals, bails on a clean pocket, does not set his feel correctly after the expected excursion to his right, does not complete the progression before going mobile, constant ball placement and timing issues.  He is awful and getting no better.  

Let me explain something about the NFL.  Tape exposses players over time.  Prescott has loads of NFL tape on him and is consistently a top 10 NFL QB despite that.  Rush has completed 57.7 percent of his throws.  He isn't remotely in Dak Prescotts class.  

Daniel Jones is running RPO's and is killing teams running the ball along with completing a respectable 66.7 percent of his passes.  He's not being protected he's been put in position to win football games. 

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4 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

I knew nothing about Rush last season.  After watching one game this season, I liked him a lot.  Better than Prescott. It took me one game.  Just one.

I always felt Jalen Hurts would be a good NFL QB.  I was right.

I was POSITIVE Daniel Jones was flawed in a way that ensured he would never get the Giants past a good playoff team.  No pocket awareness.  He'll throw a bunch of nice passes and then, drop back, not see the edge pressure, get hit and burp up the ball.   I was right... BUT, Daboll and the OC know it and they are limiting his exposure in very cleaver ways.  

Wilson looks the same now as he has looked the first time out.  Issues with fundamentals, bails on a clean pocket, does not set his feel correctly after the expected excursion to his right, does not complete the progression before going mobile, constant ball placement and timing issues.  He is awful and getting no better.  

It took Jones 4 yrs, but Zach is still doing bad things after 17 games and 1 pre-season. OK.

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Just now, batman10023 said:

you should consider getting into the scouting business given how successful your analysis has been.

Naw.  If you want to do that soft of thing, you have to be saturated with ball.  You also need a history and resume. I'm just a fan and I know it.  Scouts also have to do a lot of travel.   You have to want to do it from the get go and have it as a life work and passion.  Not for me

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41 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

It looks like Zach ain't it but no one will question his physical attributes and athleticism. QBs need to be developed and if you can develop one while you're relying on defense, running and special teams to win games, that's a luxury.

I forget who said it but basically you can break QB's into 3 buckets today. 

  • QB's you win because of
  • QB's you can win with
  • QB's you lose because of

Zach so far this season has been clearly in the QB's you can win with bucket. You have to try and develop him into the QB's you win because of bucket. That's only going to happen with playing more.

Teams who have QB you win because of

1) Mahomes

2) Burrow

if you are tossing QB’s because you don’t win because of them then you are going to be searching forever.

You can’t put Herbert in that group then because he is still looking for his playoff spot

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4 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

WE are those of us who can see that Wilson isn't working out.  I'm educated, but not always professional with the way I express myself on a football forum.  I'm not getting paid for my fundamentals here the way ZW is paid to play on the field. 

Not sure what you mean by DRAFT LIST

It was in YOUR post. Go back and read it.

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57 minutes ago, slats said:

He’s not drafting a QB high next year. 

Think based on a 5-2 record, Jets are for a change not going to be picking in top 10. But that doesn't preclude JD from jumping on a  QB talent if he thinks it makes sense early in the draft. Thus far Wilson hasn't done much for anyone to say he's The Man. Always have to be on the lookout for any way to fill the hole at QB, which right now   you cannot say Wilson has locked the job up. Could change, we'll see between now and January. 

The stupidity of Hackenberg precluding Coffee Boy from picking Mahomes or Watson, profanity does not provide sufficient words to heap scorn ....

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4 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

How much pro time/tape have you seen of Rush ??? 

Rush has been protected, he's stats are bad and he plays on a team with a great run game and defense.  He's stats are bad.  Dak's stats are good, real good.  

If watched Dallas and I'vs looked at the tape.  The guy is a classic back up NFL QB who might not stick in the league.  

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3 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

Look at the top ten teams in the general power rankings.  See anything there that they have in common ??? All getting excellent QB play.  ALL 

Eagle fans were saying the same things about Jalen Hurts as recently as this past offseason.

No, I am not comparing ZW to JH completely. But you can. JH has actually had more experience than ZW.

Yes, ZW need to show more, He has just completed his 17th game. That is one season. He did not have benefit of a preseason.

Although some of the experts on this site have given up on him, and I respect their opinion. I am of the mindset you do not make rash decisions and predictions at this point. They can be foolish in hindsight.

 

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4 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

I did.  Still not understanding what you are questioning.  

You like ZW. He's all yours.  

Let's talk a bit more Monday of next week. 

You are ready to dump Zach for who? I don't know, but whoever that is, is all yours. LOL

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3 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Rush has been protected, he's stats are bad and he plays on a team with a great run game and defense.  He's stats are bad.  Dak's stats are good, real good.  

If watched Dallas and I'vs looked at the tape.  The guy is a classic back up NFL QB who might not stick in the league.  

could be... yes.  only time tells.  

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4 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Eagle fans were saying the same things about Jalen Hurts as recently as this past offseason.

No, I am not comparing ZW to JH completely. But you can. JH has actually had more experience than ZW.

Yes, ZW need to show more, He has just completed his 17th game. That is one season. He did not have benefit of a preseason.

Although some of the experts on this site have given up on him, and I respect their opinion. I am of the mindset you do not make rash decisions and predictions at this point. They can be foolish in hindsight.

 

If you are a GM and you make such a decision, you'd get lambasted from every angle.  JD cant come out now and say he's given up on ZW.  This being a fan forum and me being a fan as are all of us here, we can offer up such opinions. If we didn't where would sports talk be ???  

As fans, we participate as fans.   We don't get fired.  We get flamed and then move on to the next thread and play "expert"

 

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7 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Think based on a 5-2 record, Jets are for a change not going to be picking in top 10. But that doesn't preclude JD from jumping on a  QB talent if he thinks it makes sense early in the draft. Thus far Wilson hasn't done much for anyone to say he's The Man. Always have to be on the lookout for any way to fill the hole at QB, which right now   you cannot say Wilson has locked the job up. Could change, we'll see between now and January. 

The stupidity of Hackenberg precluding Coffee Boy from picking Mahomes or Watson, profanity does not provide sufficient words to heap scorn ....

I’m not saying Zach has the job locked up, not by a long shot. I am saying the Jets won’t draft a QB high next year, though. I don’t expect anything more than an upgrade at the backup spot, someone with “upside,” who can, “push,” Zach. Even if he suffered a complete implosion, I’d expect that they’d be looking at the veteran route over another rookie. 

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5 minutes ago, Ken Schroy said:

You are ready to dump Zach for who? I don't know, but whoever that is, is all yours. LOL

Obviously, there is not much of an alternative now.  It goes back to the theme of my OP.  Sadly, the team and fans have lost BH and AVT for the rest of the season.  For me, it brings me back to the all important QB issue.  Many fans are not going down that path yet, but I'm already looking at the 2023 draft for a QB.  Hoping the Jets brass is too.  For the ZW supporters, no worries for them.  Posters here are not GMs.  We can't pull the plug on ZW.  He'll get his due time to prove out this season.  No stopping it. 

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2 minutes ago, slats said:

I’m not saying Zach has the job locked up, not by a long shot. I am saying the Jets won’t draft a QB high next year, though. I don’t expect anything more than an upgrade at the backup spot, someone with “upside,” who can, “push,” Zach. Even if he suffered a complete implosion, I’d expect that they’d be looking at the veteran route over another rookie. 

could be, yes.  it may go exactly just like that.

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26 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Let me explain something about the NFL.  Tape exposses players over time.  Prescott has loads of NFL tape on him and is consistently a top 10 NFL QB despite that.  Rush has completed 57.7 percent of his throws.  He isn't remotely in Dak Prescotts class.  

Here are a few more fans/posters/experts for you to fence with over Rush.  

https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-cowboys-fans-change-cooper-rush-takes-nfl-storm

https://brobible.com/sports/article/cowboys-fans-debate-cooper-rush-dak-prescott/#:~:text=To me%2C Cooper Rush is a better quarterback,makes better decisions and manages a game better.

https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/troy-aikman-cowboys-cooper-rush-dak-prescott-01gf8vg6fskm

 

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