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3 disadvantages NY Jets must overcome vs. Patriots


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3 advantages the NY Jets hold over the New England Patriots

Though the Jets cannot sleep on the Patriots, there are three significant advantages they hold that can propel them to victory.

By  Rivka Boord  10/27/2022

Killing disadvantageous matchups is what Bill Belichick does best

The Son of Satan comes to MetLife Stadium this week.

Well, not really, but The Hoodie is close enough.

Bill Belichick is notorious for exploiting matchups to his team’s advantage. His 1990 Super Bowl gameplan as defensive coordinator for the Giants against the Bills is in the Hall of Fame, preceding him, due to his masterful plan to punish the Bills’ Hall of Fame receiving corps. Last season, he guided rookie quarterback Mac Jones to the playoffs; considering Jones’s level of play thus far this season, that seems like more of a miracle than ever.

Considering Belichick’s genius, it’s critical for the New York Jets to fully take advantage of any matchups that favor them. The Patriots have beaten two bad teams this season and a third that was playing their backup quarterback. In their four losses, they’ve looked like a legitimately bad football team, closer to a Top-10 draft pick than a playoff push. The Jets need to make them look more like that team than the one that beat the Lions 29-0 three weeks ago.

Here are three matchups that the Jets need to exploit in order to defeat their nemesis.

Jets’ running game vs. Patriots’ run defense

The Patriots’ defense is ranked ninth in overall DVOA, but as with the previous two weeks, there’s a stark split: they’re fifth in passing defense DVOA and 28th in rush defense DVOA. That should dictate the gameplan, which feeds into what the Jets like to do best: run the football.

Additionally, the Patriots may be without their valuable defensive tackle, Christian Barmore, who is their key run-stopper. Barmore’s 11.1% run-stop rate ranks eighth-best out of 87 qualified interior defenders (min. 70 run-defense snaps). He did not play Monday night and did not practice Wednesday due to a knee injury.

If Barmore cannot go, this skews the matchup even more heavily in favor of the Jets. The Patriots already have the lowest stuff rate (10%) of any defense in the NFL with Barmore.

Obviously, the loss of Breece Hall removes a tremendous threat from the Jets’ backfield, which currently ranks 11th in offensive rush DVOA. However, Michael Carter and James Robinson form a capable duo in the backfield.

Carter was in the 58th percentile among backs in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, tracking the player’s value above a replacement-level player) last season despite playing behind a makeshift offensive line for much of the year. He also managed to post a 51% Success Rate (50th percentile) behind that line. Though he’s been struggling more this season, his opportunities have been more limited since Breece Hall took over the primary backfield duties.

Robinson, meanwhile, was seventh among all backs in DYAR and sixth in DVOA last season behind a Jaguars offensive line that ranked 23rd in the NFL, per Sharp Football Analysis (tracked based on Sports Info Solutions’ Points Above Average metric).

The Jets still have a good one-two punch in the backfield, even if it’s not near the level that it was previously.

A bigger question, perhaps, is how the offensive line will perform without its best run-blocker, Alijah Vera-Tucker. It seemed that the Jets couldn’t get anything going on the ground against Denver once Hall and Vera-Tucker left the game. This Patriots’ run defense is significantly worse than Denver’s by DVOA, but it remains to be seen if the Jets can continue their dominance on the ground.

Jets’ RBs out of the backfield vs. Patriots’ flat defenders

This may seem related to the first one, but it’s a category unto itself.

New England’s defense is the third-worst in the NFL in covering running backs with a DVOA of 34.7%. Although the Patriots have allowed just 26 catches out of the backfield, those have been pretty destructive. Those catches have yielded 265 yards, an average of 10.2 yards per pass that is the second-highest among all NFL defenses. The Patriots also allow 7.8 yards per attempt on passes to RBs, the highest number in the NFL.

It appears that the Patriots may be lucky that teams haven’t attempted many checkdowns or screen passes to running backs against them since they’re pretty poor in defending it.

Once again, without Breece Hall, the Jets will definitely be missing the possible explosive element of their running backs in the receiving game. However, Carter is a solid receiving option out of the backfield, as he has 20 receptions for 151 yards (7.6 YPR) this season. He showed last week that he can turn upfield and outrun a linebacker to gain extra yards after the catch.

Robinson had 49 receptions for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns out of the backfield in 2020, showing that he can be a complementary piece in the passing game, as well.

The Jets attempted many screen passes last week, including several to running backs. This would be a good week to continue that trend.

Jets’ edge rushers vs. Patriots’ tackles

This has more to do with the Patriots’ tackles than the Jets’ edge rushers. While Carl Lawson (10.9%) and John Franklin-Myers (10.8%) are both middle-of-the-pack when it comes to pressure rate, Isaiah Wynn (7.2%) and Trent Brown (5.7%) are above the league-average pressure rate for tackles (5.3%). In particular, Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson (assuming he plays), and Bryce Huff can go to work against Wynn on the right side of the offensive line.

Huff is the Jets’ best pure pass rusher right now in limited snaps. His still-high 18.8% pressure rate (12 pressures on 64 snaps) will have the Jets licking their chops on passing downs.

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It would be a lot of fun if Zach chose this week as his breakout game, but I expect them to stick to the formula that’s been working; two TEs and a lot of rushing the football. Protect the football, play the field position game, and trust the defense. The advantage #2 here isn’t all that scary with Andrews out. Run defense was a big concern here prior to the season, but it’s been stout after a shaky start. I expect them to be fully prepared for NE’s running game as Beli tries to hide and protect Jones. I love the Jets pass defense against this team. 

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If Zach can make 3+ “special plays” & 7 “solid plays” with his arm or legs tomorrow and zero turnovers we win this game handily. 
 

Lefleur needs to have a half-dozen plays in his pocket that Zach can accomplish easily for those times of emergency. Scheme players open for Zach. 

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Against this roster I'd feel pretty confident except for Beli as their HC of course.  The good news is Zack hasn't been turning it over and he has seen a heck of a lot of single high coverage so at least it won't come as a shock to him. 

With our OL is shambles this will be a very good test for MLF and Zack and our "revamped" run game.  I'm cautiously optimistic based on our overall superior roster.  Go Jets!     

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1 hour ago, slats said:

It would be a lot of fun if Zach chose this week as his breakout game, but I expect them to stick to the formula that’s been working; two TEs and a lot of rushing the football. Protect the football, play the field position game, and trust the defense. The advantage #2 here isn’t all that scary with Andrews out. Run defense was a big concern here prior to the season, but it’s been stout after a shaky start. I expect them to be fully prepared for NE’s running game as Beli tries to hide and protect Jones. I love the Jets pass defense against this team. 

We lose if we do that plain and simple. We do not have Bryce, and BB will prepare specifically for that. Quite frankly they need to be much more aggressive in this game especially downfield and give looks to NE they do not expect such as 10 and 11 personnel with Garret Wide and Moore and/or Barrios in the slot. Use no huddle and hurry up. They way we won in GB and Denver is not only not sustainable any longer it will play right into BB's hands. I am one of Zach's biggest proponents but he needs to step up this week and help us win by more than just not turning the ball over and avoiding sacks.

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To exercise the Belichick demon, they must:

1- Eliminate Judon: double team him for if he’s constantly in Zach’s face, it’ll be a very long afternoon.

2- Integrate running plays for Zach: The Bears showed us how to beat the NE defence. Zach’s got good wheels, let him lose for 6 to 10 running plays during the game.

3- Boneheaded penalties; avoid them especially on 3rd down. This to me is still a problem with this team. They had something like 4 or 5 penalties in the 1st half that gave Denver 1st downs. Luckily they couldn’t score.

 

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I think they’re going to need to have a dynamic game plan. If the defense is rocking, keep it conservative. But if New England gets things moving enough offensively that the Jets end up in a hole, I’d rather they get blown out trying to attack the single high coverage and being aggressive on fourth downs than by a little less while trying to paper cut the Patriots to death and getting nowhere with it.

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22 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

To exercise the Belichick demon, they must:

1- Eliminate Judon: double team him for if he’s constantly in Zach’s face, it’ll be a very long afternoon.

2- Integrate running plays for Zach: The Bears showed us how to beat the NE defence. Zach’s got good wheels, let him lose for 6 to 10 running plays during the game.

3- Boneheaded penalties; avoid them especially on 3rd down. This to me is still a problem with this team. They had something like 4 or 5 penalties in the 1st half that gave Denver 1st downs. Luckily they couldn’t score.

 

#2 absolutely. Said it during the game Monday, MLF MUST take that game and replicate that plan on offense in order to be successful. Cannot rely on shotgun drop backs behind swiss cheese, or hand offs into the middle of the DL and expect good things. He has to get creative with Zach's running ability. And first down gains are critical here as well. Cannot expect to be successful on 3rd and 8 all the time.

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The Pats are a mediocre team that got bitch slapped at home by the Bears who nearly put 40 points on them. The Jets are the better team but they have to play smart football and we already know the refs and Pats have a sort of kindship. This game will be won in the trenches and we can beat them there. We are missing AVT but they are missing Andrews so it's basically a wash. Just make sure Judon is doubled most of the time as he is their only real threat on the Dline. Our defense is stout and they will simply have a hard time scoring against us. I think we still have a competent running game with Carter and Robinson but Zach needs to make some plays downfield. Bottom line is we are better, motivated, and playing at home in front of a likely frenzied crowd. I see something like a 24-10 Jets victory. 

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2 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

3 advantages the NY Jets hold over the New England Patriots

Though the Jets cannot sleep on the Patriots, there are three significant advantages they hold that can propel them to victory.

By  Rivka Boord  10/27/2022

Killing disadvantageous matchups is what Bill Belichick does best

The Son of Satan comes to MetLife Stadium this week.

Well, not really, but The Hoodie is close enough.

Bill Belichick is notorious for exploiting matchups to his team’s advantage. His 1990 Super Bowl gameplan as defensive coordinator for the Giants against the Bills is in the Hall of Fame, preceding him, due to his masterful plan to punish the Bills’ Hall of Fame receiving corps. Last season, he guided rookie quarterback Mac Jones to the playoffs; considering Jones’s level of play thus far this season, that seems like more of a miracle than ever.

Considering Belichick’s genius, it’s critical for the New York Jets to fully take advantage of any matchups that favor them. The Patriots have beaten two bad teams this season and a third that was playing their backup quarterback. In their four losses, they’ve looked like a legitimately bad football team, closer to a Top-10 draft pick than a playoff push. The Jets need to make them look more like that team than the one that beat the Lions 29-0 three weeks ago.

Here are three matchups that the Jets need to exploit in order to defeat their nemesis.

Jets’ running game vs. Patriots’ run defense

The Patriots’ defense is ranked ninth in overall DVOA, but as with the previous two weeks, there’s a stark split: they’re fifth in passing defense DVOA and 28th in rush defense DVOA. That should dictate the gameplan, which feeds into what the Jets like to do best: run the football.

Additionally, the Patriots may be without their valuable defensive tackle, Christian Barmore, who is their key run-stopper. Barmore’s 11.1% run-stop rate ranks eighth-best out of 87 qualified interior defenders (min. 70 run-defense snaps). He did not play Monday night and did not practice Wednesday due to a knee injury.

If Barmore cannot go, this skews the matchup even more heavily in favor of the Jets. The Patriots already have the lowest stuff rate (10%) of any defense in the NFL with Barmore.

Obviously, the loss of Breece Hall removes a tremendous threat from the Jets’ backfield, which currently ranks 11th in offensive rush DVOA. However, Michael Carter and James Robinson form a capable duo in the backfield.

Carter was in the 58th percentile among backs in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, tracking the player’s value above a replacement-level player) last season despite playing behind a makeshift offensive line for much of the year. He also managed to post a 51% Success Rate (50th percentile) behind that line. Though he’s been struggling more this season, his opportunities have been more limited since Breece Hall took over the primary backfield duties.

Robinson, meanwhile, was seventh among all backs in DYAR and sixth in DVOA last season behind a Jaguars offensive line that ranked 23rd in the NFL, per Sharp Football Analysis (tracked based on Sports Info Solutions’ Points Above Average metric).

The Jets still have a good one-two punch in the backfield, even if it’s not near the level that it was previously.

A bigger question, perhaps, is how the offensive line will perform without its best run-blocker, Alijah Vera-Tucker. It seemed that the Jets couldn’t get anything going on the ground against Denver once Hall and Vera-Tucker left the game. This Patriots’ run defense is significantly worse than Denver’s by DVOA, but it remains to be seen if the Jets can continue their dominance on the ground.

Jets’ RBs out of the backfield vs. Patriots’ flat defenders

This may seem related to the first one, but it’s a category unto itself.

New England’s defense is the third-worst in the NFL in covering running backs with a DVOA of 34.7%. Although the Patriots have allowed just 26 catches out of the backfield, those have been pretty destructive. Those catches have yielded 265 yards, an average of 10.2 yards per pass that is the second-highest among all NFL defenses. The Patriots also allow 7.8 yards per attempt on passes to RBs, the highest number in the NFL.

It appears that the Patriots may be lucky that teams haven’t attempted many checkdowns or screen passes to running backs against them since they’re pretty poor in defending it.

Once again, without Breece Hall, the Jets will definitely be missing the possible explosive element of their running backs in the receiving game. However, Carter is a solid receiving option out of the backfield, as he has 20 receptions for 151 yards (7.6 YPR) this season. He showed last week that he can turn upfield and outrun a linebacker to gain extra yards after the catch.

Robinson had 49 receptions for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns out of the backfield in 2020, showing that he can be a complementary piece in the passing game, as well.

The Jets attempted many screen passes last week, including several to running backs. This would be a good week to continue that trend.

Jets’ edge rushers vs. Patriots’ tackles

This has more to do with the Patriots’ tackles than the Jets’ edge rushers. While Carl Lawson (10.9%) and John Franklin-Myers (10.8%) are both middle-of-the-pack when it comes to pressure rate, Isaiah Wynn (7.2%) and Trent Brown (5.7%) are above the league-average pressure rate for tackles (5.3%). In particular, Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson (assuming he plays), and Bryce Huff can go to work against Wynn on the right side of the offensive line.

Huff is the Jets’ best pure pass rusher right now in limited snaps. His still-high 18.8% pressure rate (12 pressures on 64 snaps) will have the Jets licking their chops on passing downs.

Two interesting articles.  Where did they come from, please?

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3 hours ago, slats said:

It would be a lot of fun if Zach chose this week as his breakout game, but I expect them to stick to the formula that’s been working; two TEs and a lot of rushing the football. Protect the football, play the field position game, and trust the defense. The advantage #2 here isn’t all that scary with Andrews out. Run defense was a big concern here prior to the season, but it’s been stout after a shaky start. I expect them to be fully prepared for NE’s running game as Beli tries to hide and protect Jones. I love the Jets pass defense against this team. 

Lincoln Rhyme GIF by NBC

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3 hours ago, slats said:

It would be a lot of fun if Zach chose this week as his breakout game, but I expect them to stick to the formula that’s been working; two TEs and a lot of rushing the football. 

Otherwise known as the Rex Ryan Offense.

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50 minutes ago, RevisIsland610 said:

The Pats are a mediocre team that got bitch slapped at home by the Bears who nearly put 40 points on them. The Jets are the better team but they have to play smart football and we already know the refs and Pats have a sort of kindship. This game will be won in the trenches and we can beat them there. We are missing AVT but they are missing Andrews so it's basically a wash. Just make sure Judon is doubled most of the time as he is their only real threat on the Dline. Our defense is stout and they will simply have a hard time scoring against us. I think we still have a competent running game with Carter and Robinson but Zach needs to make some plays downfield. Bottom line is we are better, motivated, and playing at home in front of a likely frenzied crowd. I see something like a 24-10 Jets victory. 

Belichek is obviously a great coach, but doesnt it feel like this game is between 2 teams going in opposite directions?

This isnt Brady vs Beldsoe or a Pats team with Vince Wolfork, Richard Seymour, Gronk, Bruschi etc.  BB made a very odd decision pulling Mac last week as if Zappe was some sort of elite player.  Neither of these QBs are very good and Mac apparently is having trouble with his foot making him even less mobile.  He also doesnt have the arm to stress the defense outside the hash marks.   Our secondary is playing well enough to take away any downfield passing - we just need to not get destroyed by their TEs.

Offensively we are a younger, faster team and need to exploit that through screens, jet sweeps and some other misdirection type plays. After that, its time for Zach to make some plays, end of story.

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I guess if one of your three worst matchups is your back up defensive tackles, sounds like you are in pretty good shape to me.  Other two match ups mentoned are legit concerns to me, but I am not too worried about the 25% - 30% of snaps where our back up tackles are in the game.

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1 hour ago, LIJetsFan said:

Now you jinxed the whole thing :( 

Sometimes it ends up being all about just looking into and then spitting into your opponents eye.  It isn't about "jinxing it" or worrying about pissing off Belichik as if somehow that will make him coach harder against us than he would otherwise have done.  It is about saying "we're better than you are and we are going to lay a beating on you today".

This is one of those times IMO.  The pig is ripe for the slaughter and this team is just young enough and feisty enough to not lug around several decades worth of losing going into the game. 

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I don't get why people think it's going to be a blow out in one direction or the other. The Patriots aren't going to get blown out 2 weeks in a row and unless the Jets defense decides it's going to suck against a mediocre offense the Jets aren't getting blown out either. It's going to end as a one-score game, probably within reach of a field goal by either side. Belichick and his defense feels like a bad matchup against the Jets O as he's good at confusing QBs and taking away the O's greatest strength, which in this case is the run. If Zach does what he's done throughout 95% of his career than I don't see the Jets pulling out. 

I expect to see a lot of single-high coverage from Belichick. If he gets beat he will be beat by deep, tight-windowed passes from ZW. The run game isn't going to be nearly as prevalent as in previous games. 

We might have been able to predict the Miami blowout, or even the Green Bay one, but this is the Patriots. They are no joke. Miami looks terrible without Tua and not great even with him at the moment. Green Bay is in shambles. The Patriots are much worse than they used to be but they are probably better than the other teams we have faced. 

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