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While I don't expect the Jets to beat Buffalo, I'm not sure I understand the 12.5 point spread.


Alka
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If the Jets play the way they did during the 4 game win streak, then Buffalo will not win by 13 points.  If the Jets play the way they did last week, with turnovers and costly mistakes, then 12 1/2 points isn't enough.

I believe that the Jets will clean up their mistakes from last week, and put on a competitive game against Buffalo.  If that happens, then this will be a very interesting game.

I've spoken to several Jets fans this week, and no one, not myself, believes that the Jets will win this game.  

But why can't they be competitive?  The D line is very, very good, and the defensive backs on this Jets team are very, very good.  That hasn't changed at all.  Yes, the  offensive line is suspect right now, and Zach will have to protect the ball much better than he did last game.  He will.  

I think that Jets fans will be again disgusted this week, because I think the Jets could win without mistakes, but mistakes will happen.   Ultimately, the Jets will lose by a field goal, and piss off all of us once again, 2 weeks in a row.  

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10 minutes ago, Hex said:

Buffalo is the best offense the Jets have faced this year, period. Only real competitor is the Bengals, and they won by 15 points.

There is a saying in the NFL, and it is something like: "It doesn't matter what team you play, it matters when you play them".

What this means is that the Jets team from games 1-3, are not the same Jets team of today.  If the Jets played Cinncinnati now, they would not beat the Jets by 15 points in my estimation.  This Jets team is a more dangerous team, IMHO.

This Jets defense is no joke, and the other saying is:  "Defense wins championships"

If the Jets D shows up, then it will be a tight game, if the Jets can somehow control and move the ball to a reasonable degree.  

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The Bills are good.  Would anyone be surprised if they win by 14?  Lines are about public perception more than anything.  It's why the Broncos were favored prior to the news Russ was out.  The perception of the Jets are that everything has been lucky, and they are still the SOJ with a crappy QB.

Keep this game close, and be in it in the 4th and have highlights of the Bills "barely surviving" or god forbid a Jets win, and the perception slowly changes.

It's the NFL, the Jets can win this game, especially if the Bills are caught reading their press clippings about how everyone thinks they are the best in the NFL yadda yadda.

We just need our QB to grow up a bit.  I know our D is good, I know the potential for the offense is there if Zach hits the guys that are open.  But even then I wouldn't feel completely safe putting my money on +12.5.  Even though I would take the points.

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Could be a close game but from the outside looking in… it looks like a blowout.


A top 2-3 QB in the league playing a bottom 32 QB usually points to a 2 TD+ win…

Defenses are a push… since both are good.

Bills on the road maybe gives the Jets a couple of pts back…

On a positive note, we did play the Bills reasonably close at the end of last year with much worse talent on the field.

 

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57 minutes ago, Alka said:

There is a saying in the NFL, and it is something like: "It doesn't matter what team you play, it matters when you play them".

What this means is that the Jets team from games 1-3, are not the same Jets team of today.  If the Jets played Cinncinnati now, they would not beat the Jets by 15 points in my estimation.  This Jets team is a more dangerous team, IMHO.

This Jets defense is no joke, and the other saying is:  "Defense wins championships"

If the Jets D shows up, then it will be a tight game, if the Jets can somehow control and move the ball to a reasonable degree.  

Agree. The key to the Jets is their defense. Give the offense just enough to win. 23-17 Jets

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1 hour ago, Alka said:

If the Jets play the way they did during the 4 game win streak, then Buffalo will not win by 13 points.  If the Jets play the way they did last week, with turnovers and costly mistakes, then 12 1/2 points isn't enough.

I believe that the Jets will clean up their mistakes from last week, and put on a competitive game against Buffalo.  If that happens, then this will be a very interesting game.

I've spoken to several Jets fans this week, and no one, not myself, believes that the Jets will win this game.  

But why can't they be competitive?  The D line is very, very good, and the defensive backs on this Jets team are very, very good.  That hasn't changed at all.  Yes, the  offensive line is suspect right now, and Zach will have to protect the ball much better than he did last game.  He will.  

I think that Jets fans will be again disgusted this week, because I think the Jets could win without mistakes, but mistakes will happen.   Ultimately, the Jets will lose by a field goal, and piss off all of us once again, 2 weeks in a row.  

You aren't  looking at the spread the way it is designed to work or what it is supposed to do. The spread is a number where the book gets even money on both teams. It really only has to do with the gambling public. Your description of this spread is exactly what the bookmakers want you to think. 

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Vegas seen what NE did to Zach and they dont nearly have as good a defense as Buffalo who is ranked #1.

we have been dogs all year except the Denver game and it took a 3 game winning streak to do it.

i found this site where they already have us as 6 point dogs against NE after the bye. i wonder how much that will change.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

Agree. The key to the Jets is their defense. Give the offense just enough to win. 23-17 Jets

The Bills are currently # 1 in the NFL in ppg allowed (14.0).  They're also:

  • # 2 in Score % (26.1)
  • t-4th in turnovers forced (14)
  • # 2 in INTs forced (11)
  • # 1 in INT % (4.7)
  • # 2 in Turnover % (17.4)
  • # 3 in Opponent QB Rating (73.8)
  • # 6 in Passing YPA (6.6)
  • t-2nd in fewest Passing TDs allowed (7)
  • # 5 in Sack % (8.2)
  • # 5 in Pass Deflections (41)
  • # 5 in Rushing YPA (4.1)
  • # 6 in Yards per Play allowed (5.0)

Elite offense AND elite defense.  If you're expecting the Jets D to carry the day and for the Jets O to do "just enough to win"......good luck with that.

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2 hours ago, Alka said:

If the Jets play the way they did during the 4 game win streak, then Buffalo will not win by 13 points.  If the Jets play the way they did last week, with turnovers and costly mistakes, then 12 1/2 points isn't enough.

I believe that the Jets will clean up their mistakes from last week, and put on a competitive game against Buffalo.  If that happens, then this will be a very interesting game.

I've spoken to several Jets fans this week, and no one, not myself, believes that the Jets will win this game.  

But why can't they be competitive?  The D line is very, very good, and the defensive backs on this Jets team are very, very good.  That hasn't changed at all.  Yes, the  offensive line is suspect right now, and Zach will have to protect the ball much better than he did last game.  He will.  

I think that Jets fans will be again disgusted this week, because I think the Jets could win without mistakes, but mistakes will happen.   Ultimately, the Jets will lose by a field goal, and piss off all of us once again, 2 weeks in a row.  

Zach gives us +7 off the bat.

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2 hours ago, Alka said:

There is a saying in the NFL, and it is something like: "It doesn't matter what team you play, it matters when you play them".

What this means is that the Jets team from games 1-3, are not the same Jets team of today.  If the Jets played Cinncinnati now, they would not beat the Jets by 15 points in my estimation.  This Jets team is a more dangerous team, IMHO.

This Jets defense is no joke, and the other saying is:  "Defense wins championships"

If the Jets D shows up, then it will be a tight game, if the Jets can somehow control and move the ball to a reasonable degree.  

The Bills are much, much better than the Bengals, on all sides of the ball. I'm taking the 'when' part into account when I evaluate the scores. Bills blow out weeks 1-3 Jets by 21+.

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38 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Bills are currently # 1 in the NFL in ppg allowed (14.0).  They're also:

  • # 2 in Score % (26.1)
  • t-4th in turnovers forced (14)
  • # 2 in INTs forced (11)
  • # 1 in INT % (4.7)
  • # 2 in Turnover % (17.4)
  • # 3 in Opponent QB Rating (73.8)
  • # 6 in Passing YPA (6.6)
  • t-2nd in fewest Passing TDs allowed (7)
  • # 5 in Sack % (8.2)
  • # 5 in Pass Deflections (41)
  • # 5 in Rushing YPA (4.1)
  • # 6 in Yards per Play allowed (5.0)

Elite offense AND elite defense.  If you're expecting the Jets D to carry the day and for the Jets O to do "just enough to win"......good luck with that.

Agreed. As Kansas City proved last season, the only way to beat the Bills is to outrun them, not to stop them. Zach and the O must virtually do no wrong to win this game.

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14 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

I think something people overlook is that the odds are set to encourage betting... not as a straight up predictor of what they think the score will be. 

True, but Vegas' model would fall apart pretty quickly if they were off target much of the time.  

They're playing the public and their algorithm expertly predicts bettor behavior, but they're also very, very good from a predictive perspective.

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49 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

The Bills are currently # 1 in the NFL in ppg allowed (14.0).  They're also:

  • # 2 in Score % (26.1)
  • t-4th in turnovers forced (14)
  • # 2 in INTs forced (11)
  • # 1 in INT % (4.7)
  • # 2 in Turnover % (17.4)
  • # 3 in Opponent QB Rating (73.8)
  • # 6 in Passing YPA (6.6)
  • t-2nd in fewest Passing TDs allowed (7)
  • # 5 in Sack % (8.2)
  • # 5 in Pass Deflections (41)
  • # 5 in Rushing YPA (4.1)
  • # 6 in Yards per Play allowed (5.0)

Elite offense AND elite defense.  If you're expecting the Jets D to carry the day and for the Jets O to do "just enough to win"......good luck with that.

They have the largest point differential in the league too by a fair bit.  They won a game by 10 points last week and everything has been about what a huge disappointment it was.. so I think any potential of them overlooking the Jets may have evaporated against green bay. 

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Just now, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Green Bay held them down for a half. Watch us win the game and shock the world.

Green Bay held the Jets in the best part of their season to 3 points in the first half. They have a good defense, Breece Hall was just better. Now he's gone. 

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2 hours ago, Coquito said:

The bookies get the vig.

that's all they give a sh*t about. The spread is decided by who's laying the money down.

This is just an overused and simplified answer.

The line is NOT set by who is laying money down. The line is set by what Vegas thinks will happen that encourages bets on both sides.

However, the line is swayed by who is laying money down.

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22 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

True, but Vegas' model would fall apart pretty quickly if they were off target much of the time.  

They're playing the public and their algorithm expertly predicts bettor behavior, but they're also very, very good from a predictive perspective.

Bingo.

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11 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

I think something people overlook is that the odds are set to encourage betting... not as a straight up predictor of what they think the score will be. 

I think you are 100% correct.  I realize I'm getting ripped on this thread for the fact that the Bills are much better than the Jets, but let's play the "what if" game?

What if the Jets had their bye week last week, and didn't play the Patriots after their 4 game win streak?  Or better yet, What if the Jets didn't get that personal foul called when they intercepted the ball and took it to the house for a 17-3 lead?  The Jets would have won the game, and the Bills would not be 12.5 points favorites this week.

My point here is that what you said is right on point.  Now that the Jets did in fact lose last week at home, people are more inclined to think that the Bills will steamroll the Jets, and thus 12.5 point underdogs will encourage betting on both sides.  

I don't think that last week was a good indicator of where the Jets are right now in terms of how good they are.  I think that this game against the Bills will decisively give all of us a very good picture of what this Jets team is right now.  If the Jets get blown out, then last weeks loss will combine with this week, and the Jets arrow will be decisively turned downward.  If the Jets play Buffalo to the wire, and somehow win, then the loss against the Patriots last week will be an anomaly.

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12 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And their defense is elite too.

The Jets roster is very good.  The Bills' roster is great.  Just another level of football entirely.  That'll be obvious on Sunday.  

If we had Breece and AVT i think we’d be an underdog but have some chances to make it a game. But the qb difference is what is going to make it have the potential of being ugly imo. 

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Our defense can hold up and keep the Bills from running up the score.

I see a 23-13 type of score in favor of the Bills.


Hoping against hope that ZW has a remarkable turnaround and leads the Jets to victory.  What I fear is he “overcorrects”..and succumbs to multiple sacks and several tosses out of bounds.
He obviously can’t come close to matching Josh Allen’s QB ability at this point in his career, but he has to use his athleticism intelligently and at least be a version of his counterpart ..running out of the pocket for yardage and 1st downs on occasion.

I’m still having a hard time moving on completely from the season-ending injuries to our 2 best players on offense.   Injuries have perpetually derailed the team’s chance for more success over recent years. It’s reared it’s ugly head once again at the mid-season point.

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56 minutes ago, Alka said:

I think you are 100% correct.  I realize I'm getting ripped on this thread for the fact that the Bills are much better than the Jets, but let's play the "what if" game?

What if the Jets had their bye week last week, and didn't play the Patriots after their 4 game win streak?  Or better yet, What if the Jets didn't get that personal foul called when they intercepted the ball and took it to the house for a 17-3 lead?  The Jets would have won the game, and the Bills would not be 12.5 points favorites this week.

My point here is that what you said is right on point.  Now that the Jets did in fact lose last week at home, people are more inclined to think that the Bills will steamroll the Jets, and thus 12.5 point underdogs will encourage betting on both sides.  

I don't think that last week was a good indicator of where the Jets are right now in terms of how good they are.  I think that this game against the Bills will decisively give all of us a very good picture of what this Jets team is right now.  If the Jets get blown out, then last weeks loss will combine with this week, and the Jets arrow will be decisively turned downward.  If the Jets play Buffalo to the wire, and somehow win, then the loss against the Patriots last week will be an anomaly.

Don't misconstrue my statement. I was pointing out that they're not bigger favorites because they want people to bet both sides. 

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15 hours ago, Alka said:

If the Jets play the way they did during the 4 game win streak, then Buffalo will not win by 13 points.  If the Jets play the way they did last week, with turnovers and costly mistakes, then 12 1/2 points isn't enough.

I believe that the Jets will clean up their mistakes from last week, and put on a competitive game against Buffalo.  If that happens, then this will be a very interesting game.

I've spoken to several Jets fans this week, and no one, not myself, believes that the Jets will win this game.  

But why can't they be competitive?  The D line is very, very good, and the defensive backs on this Jets team are very, very good.  That hasn't changed at all.  Yes, the  offensive line is suspect right now, and Zach will have to protect the ball much better than he did last game.  He will.  

I think that Jets fans will be again disgusted this week, because I think the Jets could win without mistakes, but mistakes will happen.   Ultimately, the Jets will lose by a field goal, and piss off all of us once again, 2 weeks in a row.  

Smart Vegas people have jets as 8 point dogs..  They line is too high based on how poorly the jets looked in the second half last week and how dominate the Bills have been... 

After touch 13.5 heavy money has come in on the jets all the way to +11...

This is a huge bet on spot for the jets in terms of the gamblers. All public money is on bills and all the smart money is on the Jets... Jets easily cover

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15 hours ago, Hex said:

Buffalo is the best offense the Jets have faced this year, period. Only real competitor is the Bengals, and they won by 15 points.

Jets are the best D we've faced too. It works both ways. Someone on TV was saying how to beat (or slow down) Allen you need to be able to rush with 4 without having to blitz. The Jets can do that all day and our line isn't the best. I think the Jets will make life really difficult for the Bills offense.

I do think the Bills will have some successful drives but they'll be scattered throughout the game. key to me is whether Wilson can lead the offense to points of their own. 

In the second game last season it was close for 3 quarters and then the Jets D got tired from being on the field so much, so the offense has to sustain some drives and help the D stay fresh. I think this is an intriguing game when you look at the Bills rankings offensively and the Jets rankings on D. 

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