For context, Zach is the 2nd youngest QB in the league

[RutgersJetFan]

FO has him at 20th in DVOA and DYAR. That's actually a really great spot for him at this point in the season. Dispels a lot of the myths that some have been trying to perpetuate. 

[Jetsfan80]

28 minutes ago, JETS SB said:

The clown arrives 

1) That joke was about Darnold, not Wilson.

2) Do you really never have a sense of humor?

[Jetsfan80]

26 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

FO has him at 20th in DVOA and DYAR. That's actually a really great spot for him at this point in the season. Dispels a lot of the myths that some have been trying to perpetuate. 

He was outside the top 30 in both categories after the NE game, but yes, good to see that he's pushed up the rankings nicely.

If he plays like a top 20/25 QB the rest of this season, this team is winning a playoff game(s).  

[RutgersJetFan]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He was outside the top 30 in both categories after the NE game, but yes, good to see that he's pushed up the rankings nicely.

And he was within it prior to that. 

[football guy]

I think the overall sentiment should just be patience. We Jet fans (fans in general) are way too polarized and want to declare things one way or another prematurely. 

Some of us rely on analytics, stats, and historical comparisons/trends which is a faulty generalization. This reasoning is somewhat paradoxical because they’re often subjective,  absent context, and only relies on the favorable/unfavorable comparisons while deducting the unfavorable/favorable ones as anomalies. Others trust what their eyes tell them, but each fan will look at things different based on our bias—one person will see the reckless plays and say that’s not how it’s supposed to look, others will see the jaw dropping talent and say that can be molded. 

The truth is all of us can make predictions and say “I told you so”, but these conclusions are just a matter of chance. Whether Zach becomes a great QB really comes down to his ability to develop his on-field processing and poise, which no one on the outside looking in has any ability to know.

Zach has the overall athletic/arm talent to be a Tier 1-2 QB (think Aaron Rodgers/Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen/Brett Favre/Matthew Stafford/Donovan McNabb). Still, he could very well wind up being a guy who had the talent but winds up being league average (Derek Carr/Alex Smith/Jay Cutler/Jeff George) or he could wind up being a guy who had elite talent but was an outright bust (Akili Smith/David Carr/Jake Locker/Kyle Boller). I think it’s way too early to tell one way or another, and we really won’t know for sure until we get to year 4. 

[Rhg1084]

47 minutes ago, hotrodcharlie said:

What is that context supposed to tell us? Do you learn to not run backwards in the face of pressure as you get older?

He didn’t do it against Buffalo ??

[RutgersJetFan]

3 minutes ago, football guy said:

Some of us rely on analytics, stats, and historical comparisons/trends which is a faulty generalization. This reasoning is somewhat paradoxical because they’re often subjective,  absent context, and only relies on the favorable/unfavorable comparisons while deducting the unfavorable/favorable ones as anomalies.

Sentences like these are written by people who assume they are good at English and really suck at statistics. 

[football guy]

31 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Sentences like these are written by people who assume they are good at English and really suck at statistics. 

I was much better at numbers than I was at English, that I can assure you. 

Either way, your criticisms are heard. I will simplify it for you: the same analytics nerds that got a few things right also said Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa were busts and that Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, and Carson Wentz were the second comings of Christ. 

Patience.

[SuicidalSince98]

22 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Sentences like these are written by people who assume they are good at English and really suck at statistics. 

How ironic 

[RutgersJetFan]

1 minute ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

How ironic 

My toddler has me on like 4 hours of sleep a night so how about you shut up.

[football guy]

For the DVOA/analytics crowd: 

According Football Outsiders, Zach Wilson currently ranks 20th in DVOA at -3.0%, which is tied with Kirk Cousins.

They have Justin Fields dead last at -33.1%. 

 

Make it make sense.

[Jetsfan80]

14 minutes ago, football guy said:

For the DVOA/analytics crowd: 

According Football Outsiders, Zach Wilson currently ranks 20th in DVOA at -3.0%, which is tied with Kirk Cousins.

They have Justin Fields dead last at -33.1%. 

 

Make it make sense.

I don't believe DVOA includes rushing yardage in the equation.  They really should.  Gone are the days when statue QB's rule the day.  It's the opposite now.  Most QB's can, and do, run effectively.

Purely as throwers, a case can indeed be made that Wilson > Fields.  

[RutgersJetFan]

17 minutes ago, football guy said:

For the DVOA/analytics crowd: 

According Football Outsiders, Zach Wilson currently ranks 20th in DVOA at -3.0%, which is tied with Kirk Cousins.

They have Justin Fields dead last at -33.1%. 

 

Make it make sense.

Don't put it on everyone else that you're too lazy to read the methodology FAQ. 

[maury77]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

For the DVOA/analytics crowd: 

According Football Outsiders, Zach Wilson currently ranks 20th in DVOA at -3.0%, which is tied with Kirk Cousins.

They have Justin Fields dead last at -33.1%. 

 

Make it make sense.

Are you asking because you are sincerely puzzled? If yes, I’d suggest you ask the people at FO. If you are asking to try (and fail) to make a point, someone can point to other stats, such as QB rating, QBR, PFF, etc. to point to an opposition conclusion. Again, weren’t you the guy telling us what a custom fit Wilson was for this offense prior to him getting drafted and that we should expect him to take off early as a rookie? Has the front office given you any feedback on that one yet?

[football guy]

1 minute ago, maury77 said:

Are you asking because you are sincerely puzzled? If yes, I’d suggest you ask the people at FO. If you are asking to try (and fail) to make a point, someone can point to other stats, such as QB rating, QBR, PFF, etc. to point to an opposition conclusion. Again, weren’t you the guy telling us what a custom fit Wilson was for this offense prior to him getting drafted and that we should expect him to take off early as a rookie? Has the front office given you any feedback on that one yet?

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I don't believe DVOA includes rushing yardage in the equation.  They really should.  Gone are the days when statue QB's rule the day.  It's the opposite now.  Most QB's can, and do, run effectively.

Purely as throwers, a case can indeed be made that Wilson > Fields.  

1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Don't put it on everyone else that you're too lazy to read the methodology FAQ. 

The question was rhetorical. All I did there was point out that analytical grading formulas are flawed, especially in football. Football is an entirely different animal than baseball because there are so many different factors that attribute to output. Commercial grading formulas have a hard time quantifying a player’s responsibilities in a  given play; they cannot quantity what the schemes, coaches, and playcalling are asking the players to do. This is the exact reason why Football Outsiders suggested that Matt Schaub and Jared Goff were elite QBs while Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford were irreparably bad.

I’m not saying that analytics are useless, but there are a lot of other factors that must be considered before drawing conclusions from them. This is why NFL teams use the raw statistics and create their own formulas to quantify performance because they’re better able to quantify a player’s responsibilities in a given play. 

[football guy]

17 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Are you asking because you are sincerely puzzled? If yes, I’d suggest you ask the people at FO. If you are asking to try (and fail) to make a point, someone can point to other stats, such as QB rating, QBR, PFF, etc. to point to an opposition conclusion. Again, weren’t you the guy telling us what a custom fit Wilson was for this offense prior to him getting drafted and that we should expect him to take off early as a rookie? Has the front office given you any feedback on that one yet?

Never suggested he was going to take off early. I did say that this playbook is very deep and requires a smart QB to learn it, but is QB friendly, tailor-made for his skill set, and once everything clicks with the talent around him it would result in a low probability of being an outright bust. I always expected him to take a while to find a groove because there was going to be a massive adjustment to the speed of the game, and I do expect that he will become an explosive downfield QB when it slows down for him. I also was in favor of him sitting as a rookie, but go off with these takes because you’re clearly taking tabs on me lol

[RutgersJetFan]

36 minutes ago, football guy said:

The question was rhetorical. All I did there was point out that analytical grading formulas are flawed, especially in football. Football is an entirely different animal than baseball because there are so many different factors that attribute to output. Commercial grading formulas have a hard time quantifying a player’s responsibilities in a  given play; they cannot quantity what the schemes, coaches, and playcalling are asking the players to do. This is the exact reason why Football Outsiders suggested that Matt Schaub and Jared Goff were elite QBs while Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford were irreparably bad.

I’m not saying that analytics are useless, but there are a lot of other factors that must be considered before drawing conclusions from them. This is why NFL teams use the raw statistics and create their own formulas to quantify performance because they’re better able to quantify a player’s responsibilities in a given play. 

Internet man discovers that statistics are not 100% accurate all of the time. Film at 11. 

[football guy]

3 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Internet man discovers that statistics are not 100% accurate all of the time. Film at 11. 

Editing my response because I cannot go down these roads lol. Enjoy the rest of your night in your mom’s basement 

[RutgersJetFan]

Just now, football guy said:

Who said statistics? Lol idiot 

You were more fun when you were challenging people to fights and attempting to lecture everyone on economics. 

[SuicidalSince98]

2 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

You were more fun when you were challenging people to fights and attempting to lecture everyone on economics. 

Football guy seems to be having a conversation while you’re randomly attacking him 

[football guy]

2 minutes ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

Football guy seems to be having a conversation while you’re randomly attacking him 

Insecurity is more common than it needs to be in these parts 

[RutgersJetFan]

21 minutes ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

Football guy seems to be having a conversation while you’re randomly attacking him 

Politely speaking stupid about numbers is worse than personal attacks. 

[SuicidalSince98]

1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Politely speaking stupid about numbers is worse than personal attacks. 

Get some sleep 

[Biggs]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/sports/football/nfl-scoring-offense-down.html

NFL defenses have made major adjustments to the 10 year run of explosive passing games and scoring.  Two high safties are being deployed at well over a 50% rate this year. INT's this year are the highest since 2016.  Completion percentage is way down and TD passes are the lowest since Next Gen began keeping the stats in 2016.  

The counter to this is running the ball and trying to reduce the long throws that 2 high safeties make difficult and often create turnovers off of.  

Zach is being developed in this new reality.  He's done a very good job of not turning the ball over up to the NE game.   Some of the best NFL QB's are being forced to take what defenses give them rather than trying to dictate by forcing the football down the field.   It takes a lot of descipline to drive the field with short plays and not make a mistake.  A penalty that makes it hard to convert a first down or a turnover.  

Zach has done a great job of protecting the football with the exception of the NE game.  A game where our coaching staff and special teams weren't very good and the penalty on JFM changed the entire offensive strategy.   The idea that over a 17 game schedule you're going to win through elite QB play is passing.  Teams need to get back to running the ball, dominating field position and playing defense.  You need stellar special teams to go along with it.  The Jets seem to be really emphasising these aspects of the game and the Jets are winning because of it.

Zach is playing good football in the context of what's needed from him.  He's also getting better and learning.   The Jets are in an amazing sweet spot based on the overall transition that's going on in the NFL.   They get to develop the QB in the new reality of what's going on league wide defensively.  He's doing really well.

The constant attacks or excuses for Zach are really reactionary and unnecessary.  It's like trying to predict which games are a win and which are a loss.  It's going to play out one game at a time and we can react to it in real time. 

 

[32EBoozer]

19 minutes ago, Biggs said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/sports/football/nfl-scoring-offense-down.html

NFL defenses have made major adjustments to the 10 year run of explosive passing games and scoring.  Two high safties are being deployed at well over a 50% rate this year. INT's this year are the highest since 2016.  Completion percentage is way down and TD passes are the lowest since Next Gen began keeping the stats in 2016.  

The counter to this is running the ball and trying to reduce the long throws that 2 high safeties make difficult and often create turnovers off of.  

Zach is being developed in this new reality.  He's done a very good job of not turning the ball over up to the NE game.   Some of the best NFL QB's are being forced to take what defenses give them rather than trying to dictate by forcing the football down the field.   It takes a lot of descipline to drive the field with short plays and not make a mistake.  A penalty that makes it hard to convert a first down or a turnover.  

Zach has done a great job of protecting the football with the exception of the NE game.  A game where our coaching staff and special teams weren't very good and the penalty on JFM changed the entire offensive strategy.   The idea that over a 17 game schedule you're going to win through elite QB play is passing.  Teams need to get back to running the ball, dominating field position and playing defense.  You need stellar special teams to go along with it.  The Jets seem to be really emphasising these aspects of the game and the Jets are winning because of it.

Zach is playing good football in the context of what's needed from him.  He's also getting better and learning.   The Jets are in an amazing sweet spot based on the overall transition that's going on in the NFL.   They get to develop the QB in the new reality of what's going on league wide defensively.  He's doing really well.

The constant attacks or excuses for Zach are really reactionary and unnecessary.  It's like trying to predict which games are a win and which are a loss.  It's going to play out one game at a time and we can react to it in real time. 

 

Total Quarterback Rating (QBR)

The metric takes into account all of a quarterback's contribution to a game, including passing, rushing, sacks, penalties, touchdowns, and turnovers. Moreover, each play is weighted based on its "difficulty", the context of the game, and the strength of the opposing defense.

Zach needs to be better if we want to make the playoffs. He has progressed, however. 76 QBR last game is moving in the right direction after the NE debacle 

[dbatesman]

18 hours ago, football guy said:

For the DVOA/analytics crowd: 

According Football Outsiders, Zach Wilson currently ranks 20th in DVOA at -3.0%, which is tied with Kirk Cousins.

They have Justin Fields dead last at -33.1%. 

 

Make it make sense.

Fields’s first four games were catastrophically bad and even when he’s playing well, like the last few weeks, he takes a ton of sacks. 

[dbatesman]

19 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

FO has him at 20th in DVOA and DYAR. That's actually a really great spot for him at this point in the season. Dispels a lot of the myths some have been trying to perpetuate. 

Quick Reads has been fascinating on this. That week that the Bears beat the Pats and we beat the Broncos, everyone in Chicago was braying about how they had definitely 100% found their franchise QB and everyone here was saying “we can’t win another game with QB play like this.” Meanwhile FO had Fields ranked 23rd and Wilson ranked 16th that week.

[T0mShane]

The team plays better than expected, goes into the BYE on a incredible high, and this board reaches Peak Interpersonal Hostility levels. I freaking love it. Best board on the internet. 

[Biggs]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Total Quarterback Rating (QBR)

The metric takes into account all of a quarterback's contribution to a game, including passing, rushing, sacks, penalties, touchdowns, and turnovers. Moreover, each play is weighted based on its "difficulty", the context of the game, and the strength of the opposing defense.

Zach needs to be better if we want to make the playoffs. He has progressed, however. 76 QBR last game is moving in the right direction after the NE debacle 

I suspect the Jets record with Zach at QB puts the Jets into the playoffs with the possability of a bye.  

Why does he have to be better for the Jets to make the playoffs?  I suspect if he continues to improve the Jets might do some damage in the playoffs. 

[T0mShane]

19 hours ago, football guy said:

For the DVOA/analytics crowd: 

According Football Outsiders, Zach Wilson currently ranks 20th in DVOA at -3.0%, which is tied with Kirk Cousins.

They have Justin Fields dead last at -33.1%. 

 

Make it make sense.

Marcus Mariota is 14th in that metric. Trubisky is 21. DVOA and DYAR are adjusted for opponent, so Zach is getting extra credit (as he should!) for not melting down vs the Broncos and Bills D’s. Remove the defense-adjusted part and he drops to 25th overall in both. Zach is in that sweet spot where he’s not really productive, but he’s also not entirely injurious. Which is fine! And, as based on one of your earlier observations, it’s a foundation the Jets plan to build on and expand from. (Which is the right plan!) 

[dbatesman]

47 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Marcus Mariota is 14th in that metric. Trubisky is 21. DVOA and DYAR are adjusted for opponent, so Zach is getting extra credit (as he should!) for not melting down vs the Broncos and Bills D’s. Remove the defense-adjusted part and he drops to 25th overall in both. Zach is in that sweet spot where he’s not really productive, but he’s also not entirely injurious. Which is fine! And, as based on one of your earlier observations, it’s a foundation the Jets plan to build on and expand from. (Which is the right plan!) 

Guys can get better, too. Sounds stupid to say, but it’s worth bearing in mind. I think a lot of people here (myself included) looked at Wilson’s meltdown in the Pats game as “the real Zach,” as if the rest of his not-really-productive-but-not-entirely-injurious play this year was a mirage, but there’s a lot more evidence for the latter than the former. Fields looked like he was on his way out of the league after the Commanders game. Then the Bears had a mini-bye and he’s gotten better every week since. Also worth noting here that FO had Zach as the league’s 8th best QB last week.

[T0mShane]

11 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Guys can get better, too. Sounds stupid to say, but it’s worth bearing in mind. I think a lot of people here (myself included) looked at Wilson’s meltdown in the Pats game as “the real Zach,” as if the rest of his not-really-productive-but-not-entirely-injurious play this year was a mirage, but there’s a lot more evidence for the latter than the former. Fields looked like he was on his way out of the league after the Commanders game. Then the Bears had a mini-bye and he’s gotten better every week since. Also worth noting here that FO had Zach as the league’s 8th best QB last week.

Absolutely. I hated the Zach pick and I hate him now, but I am encouraged by where he’s at presently as a baseline for improvement, and I’m intrigued to see if he’s able to build off of it. Most of the PFF/ESPN/Athletic analysis on Zach this week has been disparaging or dismissive because of how conservatively he was used v Bills, but who cares? Just the fact that he’s taking the snaps and not ******* up the game is win-win stuff for the Jets. 

[PS17]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Absolutely. I hated the Zach pick and I hate him now, but I am encouraged by where he’s at presently as a baseline for improvement, and I’m intrigued to see if he’s able to build off of it. Most of the PFF/ESPN/Athletic analysis on Zach this week has been disparaging or dismissive because of how conservatively he was used v Bills, but who cares? Just the fact that he’s taking the snaps and not ******* up the game is win-win stuff for the Jets. 

Who is this? Is the real T0m tied up in your basement? 

[dbatesman]

12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Absolutely. I hated the Zach pick and I hate him now, but I am encouraged by where he’s at presently as a baseline for improvement, and I’m intrigued to see if he’s able to build off of it. Most of the PFF/ESPN/Athletic analysis on Zach this week has been disparaging or dismissive because of how conservatively he was used v Bills, but who cares? Just the fact that he’s taking the snaps and not ******* up the game is win-win stuff for the Jets. 

This is where I’m at too. I really don’t see him ever turning into a franchise guy, but he’s been good enough (and better than he’s generally given credit for).

I’m also exhausted by Smart Football Guys and their takes, all of which seem to boil down to “any team with a good QB is on the right track and any team that doesn’t definitely have a good QB is an afterthought, also when a team without an elite QB beats a team with one, that doesn’t count.”

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, dbatesman said:

This is where I’m at too. I really don’t see him ever turning into a franchise guy, but he’s been good enough (and better than he’s generally given credit for).

I’m also exhausted by Smart Football Guys and their takes, all of which seem to boil down to “any team with a good QB is on the right track and any team that doesn’t definitely have a good QB is an afterthought, also when a team without an elite QB beats a team with one, that doesn’t count.”

I have been regrettably awash in NFL podcasts for months and the inability of anyone in that Robert Mays/NFLN orbit to let go of their preseason analysis wherein the Chargers-Broncos-Raiders-Rams-Bucs-etc were going to steamroll while the Falcons-Seahawks-Giants-Jets should all be relegated has been illuminating. Clearly, it’s a weird year, and the offenses will eventually catch up to the defenses, but those august analysts are clinging to their summer takes like spider monkeys.