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CJ Mosley will remain a Jet next year. Here's why & how.


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My opinion here has changed.  The following is for the nerds in the group.

 

Why a 2023 Jet?

1. The guy is playing at a high level and brings tremendous leadership & swagger. 

2. The Jets will be a favorite to make the playoffs and potentially a serious SB contender.

3. Their cap space will be tight and a smart restructuring can continue to provide some needed flexibility.  

4. Draft capital is precious and might be better used elsewhere.

 

How do they get it done?

On his remaining 4 year contract (incl 2 void years):

1. $12M remains of the 2022 salary he agreed to convert to a signing bonus (spread over 5 years incl 2 void years)

2. $3M remains of his original signing bonus (2020 COVID year doesn't count)

3. 2022 salary = $17M

Total cap charge if kept = $21.5M

------------------------------------

Option 1 is to cut him outright and take a $15M charge in 2023 + find & pay his replacement via the draft or free agency.  I'd estimate a quality starting MLB would cost $8.5M salary OR a premium round pick (round 2).  

Option 2 is to cut him post June 1 and take a $7.5M charge in 2023 + $7.5M charge in 2024 + find & pay his replacement.

Option 3 is to agree to a pay cut (50% to a market estimated salary of $8.5M), translating to a $13M charge in 2023.  Assuming they then cut him post June 1 2024, $5.25M gets charged in both 2024 + 2025.

In simpler terms,

Option 1>  2023:   [$15M charge + premium draft capital + early round cap hit] OR $23.5M charge (incl FA replacement).

Option 2>  2023:   [$7.5M charge + premium draft capital + early round cap hit] OR $16M charge (incl FA replacement).  2024 = $7.5M cap charge   

Option 3>  2023:   $13M charge.  2024 = $5.25M.  2025 = $5.25M 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Didn’t they restructure his contract this year pretty much guaranteeing he’ll be on team next year?

Pretty much. He has $17M in non-guaranteed in salary coming in each of the next two years, though. Giving the Jets a little wiggle room if they want to ask him to take a pay cut, but not too much because there’s a $15M cap charge for cutting him pre-June 1. At the level he’s currently playing, I’d expect the Jets to just pay him. I think they approached him for the restructure because they wanted him back next year. But if his play falls off or he gets hurt, all bets are off. 

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Pretty sure @Sperm Edwards confirmed that Mosley can be cut without much issue this offseason.

I would be in favor doing this and re-signing him, if possible.  As good as he's been there's no reason for him to be playing on that cap # if we can avoid it.  Though if Douglas decides it's not worth the few million in savings to risk losing him, I get that.

Either way I'd like him back in '23.

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17 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Pretty sure @Sperm Edwards confirmed that Mosley can be cut without much issue this offseason.

I would be in favor doing this and re-signing him, if possible.  As good as he's been there's no reason for him to be playing on that cap # if we can avoid it.  Though if Douglas decides it's not worth the few million in savings to risk losing him, I get that.

Either way I'd like him back in '23.

I don't think Sperm said that.  If he was cut before June 1, everything would accelerate and his remaining signing bonus and converted 2022 salary would accelerate.  The Jets would be hit with $15M in cap charges and then re-sign him for a reduced salary.  That's similar to option 1 where all dollars hit in 2023 in a year the Jets will be up against the cap.  In fact, that would likely be more than his current projected cap hit of $21.5M.

They will most likely ask him to take a pay cut and take advantage of continuing to spread the bonus dollars in future years where the cap is expected to go up.

The one thing most likely is the Jets aren't paying him $17M in salary.  He will be asked to reduce his salary.  Foolish for him to say no because he isn't going to come near that in the free agent market.  Jets might have to pay a little above market to make it worth his while.    

 

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I’ve been wanting to cut Mosley for years. I was weirdly super pissed off he took the COVID year extending his contract life as I saw him the last remnant of the terrible Mac deals.  I’m still shocked and pissed he could have a $21 mill cap charge- that’s ridiculous for an off ball LBer.

But I can’t deny how much his presence and leadership means to this team. He’s the heart of a high performing defense and has been nothing but a beast and an unwavering supporter of the org in its darkest days. 
 

so I love he’s on the team and want him to stay but prolonging that crazy Mac contract still irks me and I’m hoping he somehow comes back at a discount.

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6 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Mosley is the leader of the defense. He is going to the Pro Bowl. Those are the reasons he will be back here.

We don't need another reason but if we did, it would be because he wants to help the Jets win their second Super Bowl in a row.

I don't think it's ever been that simple with a $17M salary on the horizon.  

But when you look at his replacement cost, the numbers do look a lot better if he agrees to reduce his salary to a market rate (maybe a little premium).  It's a win win.

In every scenario I listed, the total cap hit is the same for the team when you include his FA replacement cost.  The Jets might value the draft premium of replacing him even greater. 

I don't see him staying at $17M salary though.  That would likely be a deal breaker for the Jets in my opinion since $8.5M above market in my analysis creates a significant opportunity cost.

Hoping he comes back.

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9 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I don't think it's ever been that simple with a $17M salary on the horizon.  

But when you look at his replacement cost, the numbers do look a lot better if he agrees to reduce his salary to a market rate (maybe a little premium).  It's a win win.

In every scenario I listed, the total cap hit is the same for the team when you include his FA replacement cost.  The Jets might value the draft premium of replacing him even greater. 

I don't see him staying at $17M salary though.  That would likely be a deal breaker for the Jets in my opinion since $8.5M above market in my analysis creates a significant opportunity cost.

Hoping he comes back.

Corey Davis is going to be the veteran contract they are most worried about.

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10 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Corey Davis is going to be the veteran contract they are most worried about.

$10M for a quality receiver doesn't seem crazy.  That said, if Mims shows he can be an equal but cheaper replacement, then I tend to agree.  I'm much less convinced of that than it makes sense for CJ to take a pay cut because nobody is paying him $17M salary in 2023, including the Jets.

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1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

$10M for a quality receiver doesn't seem crazy.  That said, if Mims shows he can be an equal but cheaper replacement, then I tend to agree.  I'm much less convinced of that than it makes sense for CJ to take a pay cut because nobody is paying him $17M salary in 2023, including the Jets.

i'd like to keep Davis. Clearly Fant isnt worth anything near big money....we should be drafting another OL in round 2-3 anyways.

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How do we keep Mosely and sign Q to the contract he deserves?

Who else is due a big payday? 

Knowing that Mike Freaking White is our most important FA in the offseason, these guys also seem important in terms of decisions to be made: Fant (is he worth keeping?); McGovern (worth keeping or do we get a C in the draft?); Rankins; Herbig; Kwon (love him); Quincy W; Ty Johnson (just kidding)

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4 hours ago, Maxman said:

Mosley is the leader of the defense. He is going to the Pro Bowl. Those are the reasons he will be back here.

We don't need another reason but if we did, it would be because he wants to help the Jets win their second Super Bowl in a row.

Woah, I obviously haven’t been paying attention. Sorry Boss. 

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14 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I don't think Sperm said that.  If he was cut before June 1, everything would accelerate and his remaining signing bonus and converted 2022 salary would accelerate.  The Jets would be hit with $15M in cap charges and then re-sign him for a reduced salary.  That's similar to option 1 where all dollars hit in 2023 in a year the Jets will be up against the cap.  In fact, that would likely be more than his current projected cap hit of $21.5M.

They will most likely ask him to take a pay cut and take advantage of continuing to spread the bonus dollars in future years where the cap is expected to go up.

The one thing most likely is the Jets aren't paying him $17M in salary.  He will be asked to reduce his salary.  Foolish for him to say no because he isn't going to come near that in the free agent market.  Jets might have to pay a little above market to make it worth his while.    

 

This is all true.

The thing about all that accelerated $ is it hits the cap anyway. It doesn't go away if he's kept (and paid still more for being kept). All of it is money the team has already paid him. 

But I agree that as likely as not he returns. It's not what I'd prefer, but it is what I expect.

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I know it's not a popular opinion, but I just have to disagree with the premise of this thread.

I still see a massively overrated player whose main value this year is that he's a veteran starter on a very young team. That has tangible effects beyond his own play, but at the same time this is also a team that won't have as many rookies next season and won't still need a babysitter.

That said, even with his visibly better play the past week or so - he was outright awful and below average most of the first month-plus - if you rewatch the games and really focus on him from the snap (easier than most because of his hair, even when it's hard to see a jersey number):

  • He is often in the wrong place away from the ball (and/or slow to react & reach the ballcarrier if his job was to be elsewhere initially, and gives up on plays; the anti-Williams brother)
  • He gets pushed backwards by a RB or TE pretty easily
  • He has little to no ability to disengage a blocker who's made contact with him
  • He drops interceptions that hit him in the hands
  • He gets dragged backwards while tackling a RB who gets through the DL, especially up the middle right to him (with the ballcarrier often getting another 2-5 yards before going down, or tackles them forward (and after a 2nd & 10 handoff it's then 3rd & 2 instead of a shoulda-been 3rd & 7);
    • In these too-frequent cases, even in cases he doesn't get nabbed for a missed tackle stat he's way too often just not taking care of business. Even though there have been two in the past two games where he did really stick a tackle to stop a guy dead in his tracks, it's unusual from him which is why we so notice the rarity when it does happen. But he still gets his tackle stat, which is a pure-positive stat, even though he effed up. 
  • He's slow. He is. Watch him try to run down a ballcarrier; he too often doesn't bother (like it's not worth expending the energy because he couldn't catch anyone anyway), as he almost jogs to the sideline if that's where the play went.
  • QBs are completing passes at a 75% clip when targeting his man (or in zone, when he's the closest defender). Probably a good 1/3 of his tackles came on plays where he's tackling the guy he was charged with covering, after the pass was completed.

I've little doubt he has value in other areas, like leadership roles in & out of the D huddle.

  • There's not only the lack of drama from him, but he seems to be one (though not the only one) who does help tamp down drama from others when it pops up. It's not nothing, especially on such a young team who surely does get frustrated with a young QB who hasn't exactly been crushing it all year himself.
  • I also accept that the team has such a scarcity of LB depth that they really don't have anyone else anyway. So in the rare event he came off the field for a couple plays, the delta between him & his replacement was visible because he's being compared to a scrub, cold off the bench, with no business out there himself.
  • It's the area Douglas has made basically zero effort yet in drafting, and I think that's been a sound strategy given the higher value of the DL and secondary, plus the sheer knowledge that he was trapped into paying Mosley's fully guaranteed $17MM/year anyway.

But once the ball is snapped I'm really not at all seeing this supposed probowl level player he gets credit for being, let alone an ILB/MLB worth nearly $17MM/year on the field. He gets a lot of tackles because of (a) the position he plays; (b) the Jets' crazy coverage skills in the secondary; (c) he doesn't ever rotate off the field just like other 85-90 tackle LBs (there are several); (d) there have been plenty of long drives this year; (e) he's tackling the receiver he was charged with covering in the first place, after not breaking up the pass. IOW because of the sheer #s of opportunities as QBs stay away from our secondary; not because he's all over the field. If anything it seems like he's being targeted (or anyway there's always going to be opportunities on runs between the tackles, if not between the guards, right into his zone).

I think they should move on. I wouldn't be eager to keep him at a 50% pay cut, which I doubt he'd take anyway, and they should draft their next one on days 1 or 2 in April, not reinvesting in an overpaid 31 yr old LB who gets slower every year. It's the last level Douglas has seen fit to make his youth investment - not without reason - but by next year the time will come. Or anyway, it should. 

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