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Three Teams Better Than Their Records


Jet Nut
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3 minutes ago, hawk said:

I think most on here agree, just average QB this team is better than its record.  The first Patriots loss and the second we got nothing on offense.  

This defense is top of the league and an offense that gets them a lead and more importantly controls the time of possession improves this defense immensely!

Not to mention one less damn punt and we very well could have won that second f-ing game! Wasn't that like the tenth punt they scored on?

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21 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Not to mention one less damn punt and we very well could have won that second f-ing game! Wasn't that like the tenth punt they scored on?

9 of 22 for 77 yards (of which 30 something came on one pass, which was grossly underground and the receiver had to come back for).  It was windy though...🙄  Perhaps he would have been better in a downpour.

Yeah, somewhere around 10.

The first game he had over 300 miss leading yards with 3 picks.

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51 minutes ago, hawk said:

9 of 22 for 77 yards (of which 30 something came on one pass, which was grossly underground and the receiver had to come back for).  It was windy though...🙄  Perhaps he would have been better in a downpour.

Yeah, somewhere around 10.

The first game he had over 300 miss leading yards with 3 picks.

Underground? Haha, awesome, 

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12 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

2022 NFL season: Three teams better than their records going into Week 13; three that are worse

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-season-three-teams-better-than-their-records-going-into-week-13-three-t

Bill Parcells famously said, "You are what your record says you are," and from a certain vantage point, he was right.

The more games you lose, the harder you make it on yourself to get into the playoffs. Teams that moan and whine about being better than their record don't have much ground to stand on in the actual standings. There's a bottom-line element to a team's record that absolutely can't be dismissed.

But Parcells was also partially wrong, too -- or perhaps there was some context missing. Sometimes teams' records are deceiving. After all, he should know best: Parcells' final two Super Bowl appearances as a coach came when his team did not have the best conference record that season.

There's also far more recent history of teams outperforming their regular-season marks in the playoffs.

Just last season, the 10-7 Bengals beat the 12-5 Titans in Tennessee in the Divisional Round. The 10-7 49ers topped the 12-5 Cowboys in Dallas in the Wild Card Round. The 12-5 Rams beat the 13-4 Bucs in Tampa. And so on ...

What's a team's point differential? Who did they beat and lose to? Which injuries must we factor into earlier losses (or wins)? Which games are left on the schedule? Even those questions don't account for how certain teams might be better matched up vs. specific opponents, including ones with better win percentages.

The overarching idea is this: Records might be a tidy way of determining playoff matchups, but they're not always gospel when it comes to assessing an accurate league hierarchy.

So let's try to sort through the records and look past the surface-level win totals to see who truly belongs in the discussion of the better NFL teams, with the playoffs drawing near -- and which ones are merely cosplaying as contenders.

Three teams better than their record indicates:

 

Rank 1

San Francisco 49ers

7-4

Our timing honestly could have been better, given that our pick for the top spot here is coming off a somewhat listless offensive performance against the Saints. But with a defense that has been shutting teams down lately -- San Francisco has posted four straight second-half shutouts and is maintaining an active streak of 94 minutes without a point allowed -- and a collection of elite skill players, this team can hang with anyone.

At 3-3, the product looked tepid. The Chiefs tore up that defense in a second-half smackdown at Levi's Stadium in Week 7, prompting fair questions about the long-term viability of the Niners. But since that point, they've been pretty dominant. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been great during San Francisco's four-game win streak (72.3 percent completion rate and a 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio in that span). The melding of trade acquisition Christian McCaffrey into the offense has been seamless. Potential bad health luck (Elijah Mitchell suffered a sprained MCL on Sunday) is the one concern that still looms for this offense.

Matchups against the Dolphins in Week 13 and the Bucs in Week 14 could give us an idea of just how far San Francisco has come since the Kansas City loss. The numbers suggest that the 49ers have actually played one of the easier schedules, if we go by opponents' win percentage in 2022. But I won't let that sway me from the idea that this is a Super Bowl defense and one of the best skill-position groups in the league. 

 

Rank 2

Cincinnati Bengals

7-4

I was this close to picking the Dolphins here, but at 8-3, is Miami really being slept on as a Super Bowl contender? Perhaps, but it would have been a lot easier to make that choice if the Fins were at, say, 7-4. 

Instead, we'll go with a team that theoretically should be exempt from such a list. Typically, when a team makes a Super Bowl, it would be more apropos to give it an "overrated" designation the following year. But the Bengals helped land themselves here by starting the season 0-2, then falling to 2-3 via a Week 5 loss to the Ravens, then enduring a Week 8 clock cleaning by the Browns that briefly stalled their momentum. Outside of that game, however, Cincinnati has looked pretty damned dangerous the past two months.

Sunday's win over Tennessee, at the site of Cincinnati's momentous road playoff victory, was pretty massive. Had the Titans won that game, perhaps they'd have been the ones to beat out the Dolphins for real estate in this space. But the Bengals' ability to shut down Derrick Henry and control the game from about the mid-second quarter on served as proof they are a legitimate operation again.

It was about this time last season that the Bengals hit the turbo button, notching late statement victories against the Ravens and Chiefs ahead of their run to Super Bowl LVI. There are still some whopper games left on this year's schedule, starting with another rematch against Kansas City, the two teams' third meeting in less than 11 months, followed by five other tough games. 

But those contests will provide ample evidence of whether the Bengals truly can run with the league's heavyweights or not, and whether their much-maligned offensive line and defense can stand up to such stiff tests. Getting receiver Ja'Marr Chase (who's been out since Week 7) and running back Joe Mixon (who missed Week 12) back healthy for the home stretch could be enough to make the Bengals scary once more.

 

Rank 3

New York Jets 7-4

This entry requires a huge caveat, naturally, given that the Jets' just replaced the player who was supposed to be their franchise quarterback. But with Mike White reviving his folk-hero status in Zach Wilson's stead, the apparent turmoil under center does not eliminate the Jets as contenders.

Had Wilson been merely decent as a starter, this whole situation would have been a lot tidier. I'd also like this team a bit more with a healthy Breece Hall, although they've done respectable work replacing the rookie running back following his Week 7 ACL tear. Still, Week 12 proved these are not the same woe-is-us Jets. When Wilson was benched last week, it was a tremor. Everyone braced for what has been so common in recent team history: folding hard when times get tough. That would happen sometimes even in September. But we're closing in on December, and the Jets are still good, even if the two Patriots losses sure do hurt (they might make the difference between chasing an AFC East crown and trying to sneak in as a wild-card team).

Like the other two teams listed above them, the Jets are 7-4, making them a borderline choice. That's a darned good record, after all. Both Super Bowl LVI teams, the Rams and Bengals, had that exact record after Week 12 a year ago. But that's sort of the point within the point: Neither of those teams looked championship-caliber heading into Week 13.

The Jets making the Super Bowl would be a stretch. But they have the defensive clout and, with White, a chance to tap into those talented receivers a little better.

With good QB play, this team can beat ANYONE!     I know you support Zach and that's noble BUT just decent QB play, 2 TD's, 200 yards, no picks and we can go to the SB. I believe that. This team is as good as any Jets team in the last 50 years when it's humming. Damn I miss Bryce Hall and hope Carter gets healthy.

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4 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

IMO The Jets are simply a reflection of outstanding coaching!

Robert Saleh is special and he has kept this team moving in the right direction despite things like losing probowl skill players, having a devastated OL, a shaky gun at best at QB in Wilson, but having the guts to bench him, a defense that was blitzing too much until Q Williams went nuts, oh and key players either not playing enough, not being put into the game plan or asking for trades, all while doing this with one of the youngest rosters in the entire NFL! We are kidding right..

Just look at what Bowles is doing in TB to see the Grand Canyon difference in coaching we have had to endure!

The dude has been phenomenal and he has made for one of the most interesting and enjoyable Jets seasons in team history so far;  with “pundits” like this saying for the first time I can recall in the last 20 years that we are even better than our record!

Just Wow!

+1000

Remember all the posts etc calling him another bad head coach, actually calling for him to be fired early on?  The usual suspects calling him “Salad”?  Looking for his replacement?   Right after the calls for Ulbrichs and LaFleurs firing?  

Proving patience is needed and can pay off.

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3 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

With good QB play, this team can beat ANYONE!     I know you support Zach and that's noble BUT just decent QB play, 2 TD's, 200 yards, no picks and we can go to the SB. I believe that. This team is as good as any Jets team in the last 50 years when it's humming. Damn I miss Bryce Hall and hope Carter gets healthy.

I think I’ve been pretty consistent, that Zach needs time to develop because he has all the tools and has to learn the game.  I’ve defended his ceiling more than him.  If he doesn’t develop and we’ve seen all he will ever become he’s a bust and will be replaced.  I don’t think we’ve seen the final product yet.

I hope.  

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4 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

IMO The Jets are simply a reflection of outstanding coaching!

Robert Saleh is special and he has kept this team moving in the right direction despite things like losing probowl skill players, having a devastated OL, a shaky gun at best at QB in Wilson, but having the guts to bench him, a defense that was blitzing too much until Q Williams went nuts, oh and key players either not playing enough, not being put into the game plan or asking for trades, all while doing this with one of the youngest rosters in the entire NFL! We are kidding right..

Just look at what Bowles is doing in TB to see the Grand Canyon difference in coaching we have had to endure!

The dude has been phenomenal and he has made for one of the most interesting and enjoyable Jets seasons in team history so far;  with “pundits” like this saying for the first time I can recall in the last 20 years that we are even better than our record!

Just Wow!

The Jets have quite a bit of money tied into their DL, they invested resources into it as well. Doesn't guarantee success, look at what Rex had and what his DL produced. They couldn't manufacture pressure without sending a 5th or 6th man. JD had a vision of what he wanted, hence trading away Leonard Williams, keeping Quinnen and signing Carl Lawson. Saleh was his hire, not the owners. His signings off the waiver wires have been nothing short of incredible. This defense has JD's finger prints all over it.

Saleh and Ulbrich have done an outstanding job in getting the most out of their defensive players. This is one of the most devastating defense line the Jets had since the early 80's defense.

JD and Saleh make a solid pair, hopefully it will be as successful as Young and Parcells

 

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4 hours ago, JetPotato said:

I will never stop being angry about the two Patriots games. They did nothing to beat the Jets. It was 100% Zach both times. The Jets were the better team minus him.

With who exactly are you angry?

The lesser QB?  Imagine a team loses a game to the better QB.  It happens in the NFL - in the vast majority of football games.

I know around here were told wins and losses have nothing to do with a QB's performance - only comp% matters in judging a QB.

I'm with you though - I think wins and losses do matter, and Zach was definitely the lesser QB in those two games.

 

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I don't know if they are better than their record.  I am very satisfied with where they are sitting and their record could easily be better, but there are reasons I don't feel they have faced the toughest schedule.

The interesting thing to me is how many times they mention the Bengals, but they miss the most important part if you ask me.  I didn't know it until I read this article.  They seem to be saying the Bengals were better than their record, but got hot at the right time.  Well, if they were 7-4, they went 3-3 over the remainder of the season.

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2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I don't know if they are better than their record.  I am very satisfied with where they are sitting and their record could easily be better, but there are reasons I don't feel they have faced the toughest schedule.

The interesting thing to me is how many times they mention the Bengals, but they miss the most important part if you ask me.  I didn't know it until I read this article.  They seem to be saying the Bengals were better than their record, but got hot at the right time.  Well, if they were 7-4, they went 3-3 over the remainder of the season.

They got hot in the playoffs.

Mike White has 6 more games to get ready for the playoffs - like to think he can keep getting better.  Get the OL healthy...

And make a run.

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2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

With who exactly are you angry?

The lesser QB?  Imagine a team loses a game to the better QB.  It happens in the NFL - in the vast majority of football games.

I know around here were told wins and losses have nothing to do with a QB's performance - only comp% matters in judging a QB.

I'm with you though - I think wins and losses do matter, and Zach was definitely the lesser QB in those two games.

 

I think, mostly, I'm angry with myself.

For believing they would win those games. But then again, they should have. And they didn't, so it wasn't that crazy. So that makes me mad at me again, for not remembering that the Jets are the Jets, but also, the universe, for that being its "order". But I'm still a little mad at Zach too. And still working a bit on forgiving Saleh for not pulling Zach at halftime of Game 2.  Cuz damn it if they had just taken care of business.

I really do hate myself.

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1 hour ago, JetPotato said:

I think, mostly, I'm angry with myself.

For believing they would win those games. But then again, they should have. And they didn't, so it wasn't that crazy. So that makes me mad at me again, for not remembering that the Jets are the Jets, but also, the universe, for that being its "order". But I'm still a little mad at Zach too. And still working a bit on forgiving Saleh for not pulling Zach at halftime of Game 2.  Cuz damn it if they had just taken care of business.

I really do hate myself.

Well, in case it makes you feel any better (of course, it doesn’t), while we totally blew both pats games, we absolutely should have lost the Cleveland game. That game was the gift of all gifts. 

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8 hours ago, JetPotato said:

I will never stop being angry about the two Patriots games. They did nothing to beat the Jets. It was 100% Zach both times. The Jets were the better team minus him.

Actually, they really weren't. The Jets may be better on paper, but that doesn't mean they played better. We missed like 8 tackles in the second game. The Pats have the #1/2 ranked defense, better special teams, better QB and a better oline. Not sure why people assume we are so much better than them. We definitely do have more playmakers.

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10 hours ago, rldev said:

Actually, they really weren't. The Jets may be better on paper, but that doesn't mean they played better. We missed like 8 tackles in the second game. The Pats have the #1/2 ranked defense, better special teams, better QB and a better oline. Not sure why people assume we are so much better than them. We definitely do have more playmakers.

Missing 8 tackles is irrelevant. The defense gave up 3 points. They more than did their job.

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14 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

With who exactly are you angry?

The lesser QB?  Imagine a team loses a game to the better QB.  It happens in the NFL - in the vast majority of football games.

I know around here were told wins and losses have nothing to do with a QB's performance - only comp% matters in judging a QB.

I'm with you though - I think wins and losses do matter, and Zach was definitely the lesser QB in those two games.

 

Judging a QB solely on Comp % is like judging a baseball hitter solely on his/her batting average. It tells a story but not the whole story.

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13 hours ago, JetPotato said:

I think, mostly, I'm angry with myself.

For believing they would win those games. But then again, they should have. And they didn't, so it wasn't that crazy. So that makes me mad at me again, for not remembering that the Jets are the Jets, but also, the universe, for that being its "order". But I'm still a little mad at Zach too. And still working a bit on forgiving Saleh for not pulling Zach at halftime of Game 2.  Cuz damn it if they had just taken care of business.

I really do hate myself.

The Jets are the Jets?  
No Jets fans are Jets fans.  I’ll bet you had the Jets winning fewer than 7 games this entire season, had the D improved but bottom third of the NFL.  Bottom half in NFLs power rankings. We’re sitting there today with 7 wins, we’re a top of the league defense and the 10th rated team in the NFL power rankings.

Enjoy it, every year you win games you expected to lose and you lose games you should win.

 

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12 hours ago, rldev said:

Actually, they really weren't. The Jets may be better on paper, but that doesn't mean they played better. We missed like 8 tackles in the second game. The Pats have the #1/2 ranked defense, better special teams, better QB and a better oline. Not sure why people assume we are so much better than them. We definitely do have more playmakers.

The Pats do not have the better QB.  They just have a QB better than the one we started in those two games.

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On 11/30/2022 at 5:55 AM, southparkcpa said:

With good QB play, this team can beat ANYONE!     I know you support Zach and that's noble BUT just decent QB play, 2 TD's, 200 yards, no picks and we can go to the SB. I believe that. This team is as good as any Jets team in the last 50 years when it's humming. Damn I miss Bryce Hall and hope Carter gets healthy.

To top that off, if AVT were still on the line... Herbig has been playing great, so leads for some interesting offseason OL decisions.

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Eh, disagree. 

7-4 is a pretty good record, IMO. And while there may be teams that are better than 7-4, I don't view any of these particular teams as 'better' than their record. 

Frankly, the Jets are probably WORSE than their record. Let's not forget they faced Miami with a 3rd string QB, the Bears with a backup, the Broncos with a backup, Pitt with a backup, and the Browns with a backup (assuming Watson is the starter). The only teams the faced with a starter was the Ravens- Loss, the Bengals- Loss, the Patriots (x2 Loss), the Bills- Win. 

So yes, our D is legit. The Jets played games with injuries and THEIR OWN backups. But NO, IMO, they are not better than their record. 7-4 is a good record and the Jets, IMO, have not beat enough good teams to really show that they are THAT good. We will see if they can beat the Vikings and Bills and how they finish the season. 

The Browns and the Colts are better than their record. These teams have a lot of pieces on paper that can make them very good but they lost some critical, close games this year. Neither expected to be 4-7 at this point and I don't think anyone would have predicted it either. They are simply better than their record. These are teams I would not want to deal with down the stretch and I'm glad we don't have to.   

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5 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Eh, disagree. 

Frankly, the Jets are probably WORSE than their record. Let's not forget they faced Miami with a 3rd string QB, the Bears with a backup, the Broncos with a backup, Pitt with a backup, and the Browns with a backup (assuming Watson is the starter). The only teams the faced with a starter was the Ravens- Loss, the Bengals- Loss, the Patriots (x2 Loss), the Bills- Win. 

So yes, our D is legit. The Jets played games with injuries and THEIR OWN backups. But NO, IMO, they are not better than their record. 7-4 is a good record and the Jets, IMO, have not beat enough good teams to really show that they are THAT good. We will see if they can beat the Vikings and Bills and how they finish the season. 

 

What was a Tua going to do, score 40+ for a win.  Was Fields going to score more than 31?  What was RWilson going to do to scare us, he sucks. 

Injuries are part of the NFL.  Have this discussion every season when people crap themselves over the upcoming schedule based on the prior season.  

Think the point wasn’t just the records but how they’re playing today.   The Jets with MW aren’t playing the way they were early in the season.  Yes, I think we would have beaten most of those teams with MW and the D we have now.  
 

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