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QB philosophies - white vs Wilson


AlexVanDyke
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If you want to pay a guy $40-50M per, you need to know he is worth it.  You let a guy sit for 2 years then he has a pedestrian year 3 and an uptick year 4, do you know?  I doubt it.  You are also sitting a guy who probably cost you more than anybody else on your team in terms of draft capital. 

The thing I don't understand is why more teams don't try this move with guys like White and Morgan.  Mid-tier picks.  I would have considered it Atlanta style with Ridder this year.  I guess the answer was that if teams thought they could really develop these guys they would be picked higher and you'd be back in with the same issue. 

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7 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Zac Wilson and a LOT of young QBs should be sitting for a least one if not two years.  The Jets blew it with Sanchez, did not learn blew it with Geno, did not learn, blew it with Darnold, did no learn, blew it with Wilson, did not learn.

I think it was probably especially true for Wilson who was coming out of a small school 

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9 minutes ago, AlexVanDyke said:

I get the primary question being asked is if white was drafted earlier, would this debate even remotely be a question.  And I tend to agree bc where you are drafted is really only a best guess determination of productivity and actually productivity is what’s important. 

BUT…..

Maybe  a good question to ask would Mike white be this productive in 2019 ie after one and a half years?  My guesss is no. Has he benefitted from watching the game from the sideline for multiple years? Why are we rushing qbs into the fire? Wouldn’t it benefit your key asset to watch and learn?  Why is that imperative to squeeze 5 years production out of a prized asset when the risk of ruining that asset long term is much higher? Why not get 3 years and but have a higher chance of success long term? 
 

i really think teams have to question putting young qbs in the fire  so quickly.

IMO when it comes to being a QB, it's  either there or it's not. The other thing is White is very fundamentally  sound. 

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7 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

If you want to pay a guy $40-50M per, you need to know he is worth it.  You let a guy sit for 2 years then he has a pedestrian year 3 and an uptick year 4, do you know?  I doubt it.  You are also sitting a guy who probably cost you more than anybody else on your team in terms of draft capital. 

The thing I don't understand is why more teams don't try this move with guys like White and Morgan.  Mid-tier picks.  I would have considered it Atlanta style with Ridder this year.  I guess the answer was that if teams thought they could really develop these guys they would be picked higher and you'd be back in with the same issue. 

The Money dynamic has changed things to some extent for sure but the thought process is not different imo.  The vast majority of uber busts in this league have been thrust into starting roles before they are remotely ready.  Many of the elite QBs have not.

Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers all sat for good lengths of time.  Even guys that are emerging now like Hurts, sat.

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I think it comes down to the fact that there's 10 people in the world who can play that position well and half of them play it at an elite level. The path to success for an NFL QB is so insanely multifactorial that I just think it is impossible to know prior to them getting live action. As such, you get this selection bias where only those drafted highly, likely because of elite measurables, are worth developing, whereas others are not. It would be one thing if the Mike White's of the world show some glaring physical or mental attribute that unanimously precludes them from being a franchise QB, but when they don't, I don't see why they shouldn't be given a shot, other than sunk cost fallacy. 

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The other q is jus how good or bad are all these 2nd and 3rd stringers when there is no opportunity?

mike white looks good. If zach looked good, we wouldnt even have known. 
 

The strev showed everything pre season. 3rd stringer though… will never see the field. Maybe he is the GOAT?

Brady- If Mo lewis didnt take out bledsoe and force brady, it is possible that the goat would be a complete unknown as well.

 

luck… opportunity … who knows whats real and not real

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7 minutes ago, BroadwayJoe12 said:

I think it comes down to the fact that there's 10 people in the world who can play that position well and half of them play it at an elite level. The path to success for an NFL QB is so insanely multifactorial that I just think it is impossible to know prior to them getting live action. As such, you get this selection bias where only those drafted highly, likely because of elite measurables, are worth developing, whereas others are not. It would be one thing if the Mike White's of the world show some glaring physical or mental attribute that unanimously precludes them from being a franchise QB, but when they don't, I don't see why they shouldn't be given a shot, other than sunk cost fallacy. 

Someone really needs to devise an Offensive system that does not rely on your QB having otherworldly analytical and anticipation skills.  An offensive system that can score with a QB of normal skills would be ideal. Why hasn't this happened?

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28 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Someone really needs to devise an Offensive system that does not rely on your QB having otherworldly analytical and anticipation skills.  An offensive system that can score with a QB of normal skills would be ideal. Why hasn't this happened?

They do, its called the Shanahan system. The same one 10 teams in the league run including the Jets. It's why a guy like Jimmy G can have a ton of success.

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59 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

You can’t have the number 2 overall pick sit on the bench for a year. If u do he wasn’t worth taking there in the first place. 

What is the cutoff on that rule? The Chiefs sat Mahommes a year and he was the #10 pick. Is the cutoff the #5 pick, 7?

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20 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Someone really needs to devise an Offensive system that does not rely on your QB having otherworldly analytical and anticipation skills.  An offensive system that can score with a QB of normal skills would be ideal. Why hasn't this happened?

Is that not what we're already seeing with a few teams - ourselves included?

The supposed emphasis in our offense is getting the ball to your playmakers to make yards after the catch. White is doing this well because he identifies the right guy and makes the quick throw. Not the "wow" throw like a Mahomes also does. This is what I think Saleh meant when he said White made the easy look easy ... his throws were on time, accurate, and to the right guy, which allowed the receiver to extend the play beyond the 7 yard throw & catch most of the time.

The yardage number White put up were due to his decision making and ball placement, not amazing deep throws to guys who are covered. YAC vs air yards. This is also what Zach struggled with.

I don't want to call White a "system QB", but he is in a system that suits his strengths (and vice versa). There are far more Mike Whites in the world than Patrick Mahomes. Is Garropolo a Mike White with much more experience? Neither is going to make the crazy highlight reel throws, they just keep the offense humming with quick throws (negating a lot of the pass rush) and give the Deebos and the Garretts of the world a chance to make something happen.

The effect of this of course is that as your playmakers rise in importance, so do their salary demands, as we saw this past offseason. Rather than the QBs commanding $50m+ a year, it's the receivers, top TEs and RBs that are getting paid as the offense goes through them so much more. 

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So few guys on the planet at any given time can be a quality pro QB at any given time....yet people still think that QBs are by and large more developed at the pro level than they are born?  Come on now. 

This isn't a position you mold by the time guys are pro.  It's far more about DNA and the work put in long before reaching the pro level than it is about what some Pro QB Coach has to say about footwork.  Processing speed can't be taught; that's in your DNA.  And no Offensive Coordinator, no matter how brilliant, can develop a dogsh*t QB.  Scheme and coaching at the pro level is about tweaking things for guys who already can do the job, not for retraining reclamation projects.  Hire a John Beck in the offseason on your own time and dime for that sh*t.  

DISCLAIMER:  Environment, scheme, talent around you, coaching, etc. DOES matter.  It's not an all or nothing proposition.  It just does not matter as much as the internal qualities of the QB himself prior to his arrival in the league.

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21 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's really silly to keep arguing things that can't be proven.

We'll never know how much the sitting helped Mike White.  We'll also never know if sitting would have made Zach Wilson anything but a bust.  And there's no real evidence to suggest that sitting makes a meaningful difference for ANY young QB.  Until a QB sees live bullets in NFL games, you really don't know much about what you have.  Wilson may excelled in college and may well excel in 7-on-7 type situations for the coaches.  But once games get going and real pressure from a defense that wants to hurt you comes at you, things can shift dramatically.  

Ultimately Wilson shouldn't have been drafted in the first place.  If you need to be sat for a year and a half to be much of anything in this league, then you shouldn't be a # 2 overall pick.  That's a guy a contending team with an aging QB maybe takes in Rd 2-3, or a rebuilding team looks to grab late in the 1st, at earliest.  

I already and fully warned you that I would be ignoring your totally superior position on this issue!

So there!

You Sir are Wrong!!!

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18 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So few guys on the planet at any given time can be a quality pro QB at any given time....yet people still think that QBs are by and large more developed at the pro level than they are born?  Come on now. 

This isn't a position you mold by the time guys are pro.  It's far more about DNA and the work put in long before reaching the pro level than it is about what some Pro QB Coach has to say about footwork.  Processing speed can't be taught; that's in your DNA.  And no Offensive Coordinator, no matter how brilliant, can develop a dogsh*t QB.  Scheme and coaching at the pro level is about tweaking things for guys who already can do the job, not for retraining reclamation projects.  Hire a John Beck in the offseason on your own time and dime for that sh*t.  

DISCLAIMER:  Environment, scheme, talent around you, coaching, etc. DOES matter.  It's not an all or nothing proposition.  It just does not matter as much as the internal qualities of the QB himself prior to his arrival in the league.

Eh.  I am not sure.  I agree that there are innate qualities that cause these guys to succeed or fail, but I think a ton of it has to do with their relationships with the staff and how things are taught.  If it were just (mostly) natural talent, I don't think they would be so hard to project.  You hear guys talk about the game slowing down.  I think sometimes that is slowly developed and sometimes it is like flipping a light switch.  These staffs can really help with how to read and what to key on.  Guys read keys and see things.  Defenses counter this with disguise and doing other things with the guys they key on.  That is why guys like Belichick and Rex can feast on young QBs.  Make them "see ghosts."  How they are taught to read things beyond that has to click.

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3 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Eh.  I am not sure.  I agree that there are innate qualities that cause these guys to succeed or fail, but I think a ton of it has to do with their relationships with the staff and how things are taught.  If it were just (mostly) natural talent, I don't think they would be so hard to project.  You hear guys talk about the game slowing down.  I think sometimes that is slowly developed and sometimes it is like flipping a light switch.  These staffs can really help with how to read and what to key on.  Guys read keys and see things.  Defenses counter this with disguise and doing other things with the guys they key on.  That is why guys like Belichick and Rex can feast on young QBs.  Make them "see ghosts."  How they are taught to read things beyond that has to click.

Processing speed is arguably the # 1 trait for a QB and yet it's the hardest to predict.  You generally don't know if a QB can handle the speed of the pro game until they get there and face live bullets.  That's why it's so hard to project.

Some guys are "light switch guys", for sure, but they still need to have a brain capable of processing quickly before that can happen.  If you don't have it, and you also lack exceptional athletic gifts...you're going to fail.

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21 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So few guys on the planet at any given time can be a quality pro QB at any given time....yet people still think that QBs are by and large more developed at the pro level than they are born?  Come on now. 

This isn't a position you mold by the time guys are pro.  It's far more about DNA and the work put in long before reaching the pro level than it is about what some Pro QB Coach has to say about footwork.  Processing speed can't be taught; that's in your DNA.  And no Offensive Coordinator, no matter how brilliant, can develop a dogsh*t QB.  Scheme and coaching at the pro level is about tweaking things for guys who already can do the job, not for retraining reclamation projects.  Hire a John Beck in the offseason on your own time and dime for that sh*t.  

DISCLAIMER:  Environment, scheme, talent around you, coaching, etc. DOES matter.  It's not an all or nothing proposition.  It just does not matter as much as the internal qualities of the QB himself prior to his arrival in the league.

QB's come in all shapes, sizes and levels of intelligence. Nobody has exclusivity to it. Nobody is born to play NFL Quarterback. One may be born with certain qualities and characteristics that may help them. However, "lights" do go on for many people everyday. 

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7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Processing speed is arguably the # 1 trait for a QB and yet it's the hardest to predict.  You generally don't know if a QB can handle the speed of the pro game until they get there and face live bullets.  That's why it's so hard to project.

Some guys are "light switch guys", for sure, but they still need to have a brain capable of processing quickly before that can happen.  If you don't have it, and you also lack exceptional athletic gifts...you're going to fail.

I guess the question here is, did they process quickly in college or just rely on other traits?  I think for the most part they do process quickly in college, but that is often based on the reads and keys that they expect to see.  In the pro game, not only is it faster but it is also trickier.  Not only does that confuse guys, but it ****s with your confidence.  Confidence is huge because the tiniest bit of indecision slows things down enough to change things from big gain to incomplete and can also screw with timing and mechanics.

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2 minutes ago, rldev said:

QB's come in all shapes, sizes and levels of intelligence. Nobody has exclusivity to it. Nobody is born to play NFL Quarterback. One may be born with certain qualities and characteristics that may help them. However, "lights" do go on for many people everyday. 

And yet Andy Reid would never have been able to fix Mark Sanchez or Sam Darnold in a million years.  

Lightbulbs come on for QB's only if they already have at least a pre-requisite ability to play the position at a pro level.  And for that it comes down to internal qualities.  Just as its absurd to say someone who is under 5-feet tall can play in the NBA, its absurd to assume QB's aren't born with abilities that allow them to play the position at a high level.  

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7 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I guess the question here is, did they process quickly in college or just rely on other traits?  I think for the most part they do process quickly in college, but that is often based on the reads and keys that they expect to see.  In the pro game, not only is it faster but it is also trickier.  Not only does that confuse guys, but it ****s with your confidence.  Confidence is huge because the tiniest bit of indecision slows things down enough to change things from big gain to incomplete and can also screw with timing and mechanics.

I think much of the processing speed required at the NFL level comes from innate traits.  Some brains are simply quicker at taking in information and reacting than others.  There's a reason Mike White can get the ball out in 2 seconds and complete passes under pressure whereas Wilson holds the ball for forever and crumbles under pressure.  And it isn't because White "sat and watched for a while". 

I dunno how much "confidence" plays into that, but I'm sure Wilson entered the league extremely confident based on how he performed in college.  But everyone has a plan "until they get punched in the mouth."

At the collegiate level, guys with well above average athletic skills can get by as naturally slow processors.  Wilson critics have long argued that he was given ages to throw the ball at BYU.  There may be a lot of truth to that.  And as we know, nearly all QBs look great when given 3 seconds to throw.  It's when the pressure comes that the cream rises to the top where the slower-processing guys fail.

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21 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Processing speed is arguably the # 1 trait for a QB and yet it's the hardest to predict.  You generally don't know if a QB can handle the speed of the pro game until they get there and face live bullets.  That's why it's so hard to project.

Some guys are "light switch guys", for sure, but they still need to have a brain capable of processing quickly before that can happen.  If you don't have it, and you also lack exceptional athletic gifts...you're going to fail.

If I remember correctly, one of the biggest knocks on Justin Fields that caused him to slide in the draft was processing speed.  It seemed to carry over into the NFL as well until early this season when suddenly things seemed to click for him.

Just another example which demonstrates how difficult these things are to evaluate and predict.

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1 hour ago, DoubleDown said:

If I remember correctly, one of the biggest knocks on Justin Fields that caused him to slide in the draft was processing speed.  It seemed to carry over into the NFL as well until early this season when suddenly things seemed to click for him.

Just another example which demonstrates how difficult these things are to evaluate and predict.

Even then he doesn't seem to be that quick of a processer.  But he does possess some elite athletic traits that "buy him time", both with extending plays AND with his development.  His passing numbers are OK but not great even in the midst of his breakout season.

So I think you've gotta be an insanely quick processor (mostly can't be taught) AND/OR have elite athletic gifts (also mostly can't be taught) to be a QB in this league.  Wilson doesn't seem to be in the former group, and I fail to see the elite athleticism other than quick release/arm strength that only helps him in certain circumstances.

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I am not feeling JD pay a QB $40mm+ year, if for no other reason than injury risk.  You put your cap money there, and then the QB gets hurt, and your team stinks.  

It is a gamble to pay QBs that type of money.  Sometimes it works out, like with Mahomes and maybe Josh Allen.  Sometimes it does not.  

But I know one thing-the Jets are never paying ZW really big money.

Blake Bortles took the Jags to the AFCCG.  He got an extension for less than premium money, but still alot.  After that, the Jags stunk.  

But the 49ers outsmarted themselves, or did not, by drafting Lance and not wanting to pay Jimmy G.  

I would rather spread my cap money around an entire roster than pay a QB too much money.,  

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