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To sit or not to sit: Analysis of 1st/2nd round QBs from 1998-2020


Jetsfan80
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6 hours ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

What is interesting is that of the 30 QBs who started right away, only 8 of them were prior to 2008.  I think I remember Mark Sanchez talking about this on some show this year or last year regarding why Zach's QB class was so bad.  In 2008 you had Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan come into the league and have success on good teams, ultimately going to the playoffs as rookies.  Mark Sanchez the next year.  The league really attached onto this and started throwing rookie QBs out to the wolves from there on.

Of the 15 QBs jf80 listed who sat >1 year, 11 were drafted prior to 2008.  You don't see it anymore, for better or for worse.

Also one of my favorite players in the league the last 2 decades was Alex Smith.  1st overall, started some of his rookie year on a horrid team and played awful.  He was pretty much horrendous his first 3 seasons and then missed his entire 4th season from an injury (aka BUST).  Harbaugh came in, whipped SF into shape along with Smith, and he was a good QB ever since.  A special story and obviously rare, but at this point I think that's the biggest hope for Zach (not Josh Allen lol).  Shut him down the remainder of the year, keep White or better competition for next year, and just keep working him.  Hopefully at some point down the line he can show up for us.

I don't think that the practice of starting highly drafted rookie QBs right away resulted from the success of a handful of guys in the 2008 time frame. It resulted from economics - the end of ridiculous contracts for rookies and the institution of the rookie wage scale for the first 4 years ( or so depending on draft round)and the salary cap.  It is just too important for roster building to not take advantage of the discount a team gets from having a starting QB on a rookie contract.  

One thing that is evident is that 5 of the 6 hits in the sit for a year category came earlier than 2006. Rodgers in 2005 was the latest of the five.  The 6th is Garappolo and he sat behind Brady, which does not make this an accurate "sit" by design.  Early drafted QBs just don't sit for a season any more.  

Lastly, does anybody think that Mahomes would be any better - or worse - if he started sooner than the last game of his rookie season?  

 

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4 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

I don't think that the practice of starting highly drafted rookie QBs right away resulted from the success of a handful of guys in the 2008 time frame. It resulted from economics - the end of ridiculous contracts for rookies and the institution of the rookie wage scale for the first 4 years ( or so depending on draft round)and the salary cap.  It is just too important for roster building to not take advantage of the discount a team gets from having a starting QB on a rookie contract.  

One thing that is evident is that 5 of the 6 hits in the sit for a year category came earlier than 2006. Rodgers in 2005 was the latest of the five.  The 6th is Garappolo and he sat behind Brady, which does not make this an accurate "sit" by design.  Early drafted QBs just don't sit for a season any more.  

Lastly, does anybody think that Mahomes would be any better - or worse - if he started sooner than the last game of his rookie season?  

 

To continue my thought, the only way a team can afford to have a highly drafted rookie sit for a year or longer is if they have an old established QB on the roster that is nearing the end (see Jordan Love).  

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4 minutes ago, SuicidalSince98 said:

Good question 

You're channeling far too much frustration and disappointment into the Jets (& Jets fanbase) current situation/decisions. Ask yourself, what am i doing on any given day that I derive pleasure/enjoyment from. Increase the opportunity for catharsis in your life. 

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I say sir, you have proven your point while simultaneously discombobulating our beliefs. You’ve collected data and successfully shown that there is no consistent correlation between a QB sitting or starting right away, in terms of QB success and longevity. This in itself let’s us know that every circumstance must be unique, and that we must rely on final outcome, because no data related to draft position/time sat can further help us foresee said outcome in terms of QB success. So while yes, you may have successfully dismantled the narrative that a QB benefits more from sitting than starting almost immediately, you’ve also reopened our minds to the possibility that in due time.. Zach just may be the guy.

Well played sir.

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9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

  • Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
  • Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
  • Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
  • Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
  • Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
  • Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
  • Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
  • Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
  • Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
  • Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
  • Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
  • Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
  • Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

  • Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
  • Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
  • David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
  • Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
  • Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
  • Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
  • Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
  • Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
  • Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
  • Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
  • Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
  • EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
  • Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
  • Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
  • DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
  • Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

  • Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
  • Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
  • Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
  • Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

  • Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
  • Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
  • Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
  • Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
  • Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
  • Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
  • Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
  • Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
  • Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
  • Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
  • Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
  • Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
  • Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

  • Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
  • Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
  • Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
  • Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
  • Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
  • Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
  • Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
  • Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
  • Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
  • Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
  • JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
  • Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
  • Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
  • Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
  • Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

  • Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
  • Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
  • Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
  • Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
  • Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
  • J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
  • Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
  • Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
  • Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
  • Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
  • Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
  • Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
  • Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

  • Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
  • Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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I feel so much smarter now lol...

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15 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

  • Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
  • Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
  • Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
  • Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
  • Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
  • Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
  • Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
  • Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
  • Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
  • Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
  • Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
  • Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
  • Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

  • Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
  • Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
  • David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
  • Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
  • Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
  • Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
  • Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
  • Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
  • Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
  • Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
  • Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
  • EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
  • Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
  • Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
  • DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
  • Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

  • Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
  • Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
  • Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
  • Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

  • Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
  • Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
  • Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
  • Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
  • Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
  • Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
  • Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
  • Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
  • Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
  • Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
  • Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
  • Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
  • Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

  • Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
  • Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
  • Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
  • Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
  • Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
  • Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
  • Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
  • Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
  • Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
  • Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
  • JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
  • Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
  • Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
  • Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
  • Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

  • Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
  • Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
  • Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
  • Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
  • Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
  • J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
  • Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
  • Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
  • Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
  • Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
  • Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
  • Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
  • Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

  • Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
  • Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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Keep my screen name out yo f***in’ mouth 

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It's really impossible to quantify the effect - Different QB's sit for different reasons.

Christian Hackenberg was never sitting because he need some Batman prep time - He was just trash.

Mahomes himself said he benefitted from watching Smith and the camp reports even before his starting season were pretty bad. Tyreek Hill said he thought he was terrible initially. Then you have a guy like Aaron Rodgers who completely changed his throwing motion in the time he sat - The time probably helped with that. 

 

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good list but then it has to be expanded to show which qb's failed but then made with another team.  right now we have mariota and geno doing pretty well.  i'm not sure what winston is doing.  and then there's a guy like tannenhill who wasn't that bad to begin with but has played much better for the tightens.  i think in many of those cases it all comes down the qb getting their heads squared away.

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The list in itself isnt all that telling and the story the data would tell was predictable.  Ofcourse there is no correlation to success based on sitting vs. playing right away.  The data collected is too basic to tell a story and it's surface level to the cause and effect.  

My simple answer based on the data is actually exactly the same as it's always been; when drafting a QB you have to an individualized plan for said player based on their strengths, weaknesses, maturity, state of the team and ability to handle the pressure right away.  Not every QB has the same make up and it's hard to predict when the light will go on for some of these guys, treating them all the same, is the common mistake IMO.

I'm just not sure there is any predictable measure, every player is different and every situation is different.  You need to understand so much about that player before they enter the building and then you need to spend a sh*t ton of time with said player to understand how they learn and how to untap their potential vs. just sticking them into your daily routine for the team and having them assimilate and learn w/ in the structure of the rest of the team. This position is different than every other and does need to be nurtured differently, IMO.

 

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44 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

if you have to ask this question, you don't understand nearly enough about statistics to have this conversation. But carry on with your win

Dude.. I'm a CPA/CFP/CMA having taken a TON of stats and econometrics in college.  But OK.  Answer the question, what more could  @Jetsfan80 have shown?   I believe there is enough evidence to show there is no absolute correlation between sitting a QB and having or not having success.  You say it's too small a sample size?  You know Neilsen ratings are/were done with a TINY fraction of TV's right? 

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3 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

Dude.. I'm a CPA/CFP/CMA having taken a TON of stats and econometrics in college.  But OK.  Answer the question, what more could  @Jetsfan80 have shown?   I believe there is enough evidence to show there is no absolute correlation between sitting a QB and not to his success.  You say it's too small a sample size?  You know Neilsen ratings are/were done with a TINY fraction of TV's right? 

Forget about stats, look at some of the qbs who have come into the nfl and succeeded the past few yeas.  Burrow, hurts, Herbert, even jones, lawrence, Tua, fields.  Some qbs succeed right away and some don’t.  Then you have others like geno smith and maybe mike white who need a bit more time but eventually figure it out.  

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7 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Forget about stats, look at some of the qbs who have come into the nfl and succeeded the past few yeas.  Burrow, hurts, Herbert, even jones, lawrence, Tua, fields.  Some qbs succeed right away and some don’t.  Then you have others like geno smith and maybe mike white who need a bit more time but eventually figure it out.  

Agreed.  That's exactly @Jetsfan80's point. There is no clear correlation for success. He simply provided some basic evidence to enforce the common belief. 

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1 minute ago, southparkcpa said:

Agreed.  That's exactly @Jetsfan80's point. There is no clear correlation for success. He simply provided some basic evidence to enforce the common belief. 

With some qbs it has to do with pure lack of mechanics and the reality that there’s a steeper learning curve and ZW fits into this bucket.  Also think maturity is a big underrated factor.  I think a guy like Mac jones would be great here, a jimmy g clone who could execute this qb friendly offense.  

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1 hour ago, Irish Jet said:

It's really impossible to quantify the effect - Different QB's sit for different reasons.

Christian Hackenberg was never sitting because he need some Batman prep time - He was just trash.

Mahomes himself said he benefitted from watching Smith and the camp reports even before his starting season were pretty bad. Tyreek Hill said he thought he was terrible initially. Then you have a guy like Aaron Rodgers who completely changed his throwing motion in the time he sat - The time probably helped with that. 

 

Yet you also have Peyton Manning, who was always an advocate for rookies playing right away like he did.  And the game was much tougher for QBs when he entered the league compared to today.  

Definitely depends on the QB, but there’s no way you can say with any certainty that sitting would make a significant positive impact on a trash QB, much like with Hackenberg who you mentioned.  Trash is trash.  

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52 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

Dude.. I'm a CPA/CFP/CMA having taken a TON of stats and econometrics in college.  But OK.  Answer the question, what more could  @Jetsfan80 have shown?   I believe there is enough evidence to show there is no absolute correlation between sitting a QB and having or not having success.  You say it's too small a sample size?  You know Neilsen ratings are/were done with a TINY fraction of TV's right? 

Dude, a CPA is taxes and accounting and finance, has nothing to do with probability or statistics.

At a very very bare minimum, he would need to do something along the lines of p(a|b), and even that is not nearly enough to make this analysis have any credibility whatsoever, but it would have more than what he did here, but very little.

This is the problem with stats, you can manipulate them very easily to reach your desired conclusion and people who don't understand them fall for it.

Look at the covid vaccine. Not long ago it was being touted as 99-100% effective, and the "stats" backed that up. Well, non manipulated stats have it as far, far, far worse than that and one could argue if it does anything positive at all vs. clearly negatives.

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2 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

Dude, a CPA is taxes and accounting and finance, has nothing to do with probability or statistics.

At a very very bare minimum, he would need to do something along the lines of p(a|b), and even that is not nearly enough to make this analysis have any credibility whatsoever, but it would have more than what he did here, but very little.

This is the problem with stats, you can manipulate them very easily to reach your desired conclusion and people who don't understand them fall for it.

Look at the covid vaccine. Not long ago it was being touted as 99-100% effective, and the "stats" backed that up. Well, non manipulated stats have it as far, far, far worse than that and one could argue if it does anything positive at all vs. clearly negatives.

You do a “real” statistical analysis then bud.  Ball’s in your court.  

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11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You do a “real” statistical analysis then bud.  Ball’s in your court.  

oh hell no. I never, ever said that this analysis was do-able. Its not, all I pointed out was your analysis was worthless, even though you patted yourself on the back for showing that that sitting has no advantage over not sitting, was blatant garbarge and self serving

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3 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

oh hell no. I never, ever said that this analysis was do-able. Its not, all I pointed out was your analysis was worthless, even though you patted yourself on the back for showing that that sitting has no advantage over not sitting, was blatant garbarge and self serving

You realize all of that was very tongue-in-cheek, don't you?  Lighten up, Francis.  

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18 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

2nd round pick who was a 2x Pro Bowler?  I'd call that a hit.  Even if much of the credit goes to the Mike Martz system.

Any others on the list you have quibbles with?  If its just 1 or 2 that would fall well within the margin for error.  :) 

Yeah, Alex Smith was a bust until he wasn't. Then he effectively held a clipboard for 1.5 yrs while injured & became a competent QB in year 5.

And this is some revisionist stuff re Geno. He was athletic enough but if you were polled here after he wasn't re-signed the consensus was the game was too fast for him.

Thing is, perhaps it was. I don't agree 100% on the innate processing speed thing, that if too many things are moving too fast initially then it’ll always be so for that individual. If a QB who starts slowly can stick around on rosters long enough, and still retain the physical skill set from draft day, the game does slow down for plenty of them. For years it was accepted that QBs struggle - some mightily - their first few years before it clicks. 

  • Granted the game's changed a lot & there weren't WCO elements to boost a QB's numbers with quick/easy outs, but I mean just look at #1 overall pick Bradshaw's numbers. His QB rating would've been higher if he'd dropped back and thrown it into the stands on every snap. That he was better in year 2 is misleading since he was only better in relation to that impossibly-bad first year.

 

  • When he was here playing at a high level, Testaverde said it took years for the game to slow down for him. If those early struggles were taken too literally, that meant his processing speed was hopeless & he was doomed to being a guy with a golden arm who could throw a football but just not against pro defenses; not unless you consider 35 picks in a season to be a success.

 

  • Rodgers was never been shy about saying that, even though he could throw a ball plenty hard, what a mess he was & how it took years of being on the bench with McCarthy totally overhauling him, but it's something he'd have said grudgingly as a rookie or the year after that because they all want to play (and because he was surely an arrogant douche back then, too).

 

  • Current starter White held a clipboard for years. It's fantasy that he'd have looked this efficient right after college. To that point, the team that drafted him cut him outright, deeming he was unfit to even be a backup worthy of a roster spot, and it took all preseason for him to beat out James Morgan for the QB2 job just last summer; he didn't wipe the floor with a 100% useless Morgan nearly the way he's visibly wiping the floor with Wilson no.

They're not all the same coming out of school from the neck up, even if they're drafted in the same slots. Different strengths & weaknesses; different college backgrounds & systems that allowed some to get away with bad habits that others couldn't comfort into; different coaches & talent around them at the next level; different reasons for slow (or ultra-slow) starts if they aren't ready right away. Some are just closer than others, and among those who weren't ready, some were still much further back.

For some? Yeah there was no helping them (which is why so few do have that resurgence, seemingly from out of nowhere; plus it's rare that any HCs are willing to name a past failure as the team's QB for the season like Carroll just did with Geno). Wilson may very well be one of those who was a never-gonna-be, but it's not destiny proven just because he was a failure in his initial stint. It seems his path to success - if there was ever to be one - probably should've mirrored an early career like Rodgers not Manning.

They're different people. Even the labels "bust" or "success" isn't a pure yes-no, as no football fan equates Alex Smith's suckitude right out of college with Justin Herbert's instant success, even though their opposite paths were lumped together as though they were identical parallels.

I think you’re trying to find a simple answer to something more complex.

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19 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

  • Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
  • Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
  • Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
  • Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
  • Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
  • Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
  • Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
  • Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
  • Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
  • Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
  • Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
  • Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
  • Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

  • Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
  • Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
  • David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
  • Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
  • Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
  • Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
  • Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
  • Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
  • Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
  • Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
  • Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
  • EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
  • Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
  • Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
  • DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
  • Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

  • Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
  • Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
  • Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
  • Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

  • Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
  • Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
  • Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
  • Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
  • Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
  • Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
  • Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
  • Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
  • Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
  • Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
  • Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
  • Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
  • Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

  • Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
  • Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
  • Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
  • Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
  • Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
  • Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
  • Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
  • Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
  • Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
  • Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
  • JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
  • Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
  • Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
  • Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
  • Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

  • Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
  • Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
  • Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
  • Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
  • Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
  • J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
  • Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
  • Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
  • Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
  • Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
  • Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
  • Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
  • Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

  • Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
  • Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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Very interesting.but personality has to be taken into it.very good job you did

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah, Alex Smith was a bust until he wasn't. Then he effectively held a clipboard for 1.5 yrs while injured & became a competent QB in year 5.

And this is some revisionist stuff re Geno. He was athletic enough but if you were polled here after he wasn't re-signed the consensus was the game was too fast for him.

Thing is, perhaps it was. I don't agree 100% on the innate processing speed thing, that if too many things are moving too fast initially then it’ll always be so for that individual. If a QB who starts slowly can stick around on rosters long enough, and still retain the physical skill set from draft day, the game does slow down for plenty of them. For years it was accepted that QBs struggle - some mightily - their first few years before it clicks. 

  • Granted the game's changed a lot & there weren't WCO elements to boost a QB's numbers with quick/easy outs, but I mean just look at #1 overall pick Bradshaw's numbers. His QB rating would've been higher if he'd dropped back and thrown it into the stands on every snap. That he was better in year 2 is misleading since he was only better in relation to that impossibly-bad first year.

 

  • When he was here playing at a high level, Testaverde said it took years for the game to slow down for him. If those early struggles were taken too literally, that meant his processing speed was hopeless & he was doomed to being a guy with a golden arm who could throw a football but just not against pro defenses; not unless you consider 35 picks in a season to be a success.

 

  • Rodgers was never been shy about saying that, even though he could throw a ball plenty hard, what a mess he was & how it took years of being on the bench with McCarthy totally overhauling him, but it's something he'd have said grudgingly as a rookie or the year after that because they all want to play (and because he was surely an arrogant douche back then, too).

 

  • Current starter White held a clipboard for years. It's fantasy that he'd have looked this efficient right after college. To that point, the team that drafted him cut him outright, deeming he was unfit to even be a backup worthy of a roster spot, and it took all preseason for him to beat out James Morgan for the QB2 job just last summer; he didn't wipe the floor with a 100% useless Morgan nearly the way he's visibly wiping the floor with Wilson no.

They're not all the same coming out of school from the neck up, even if they're drafted in the same slots. Different strengths & weaknesses; different college backgrounds & systems that allowed some to get away with bad habits that others couldn't comfort into; different coaches & talent around them at the next level; different reasons for slow (or ultra-slow) starts if they aren't ready right away. Some are just closer than others, and among those who weren't ready, some were still much further back.

For some? Yeah there was no helping them (which is why so few do have that resurgence, seemingly from out of nowhere; plus it's rare that any HCs are willing to name a past failure as the team's QB for the season like Carroll just did with Geno). Wilson may very well be one of those who was a never-gonna-be, but it's not destiny proven just because he was a failure in his initial stint. It seems his path to success - if there was ever to be one - probably should've mirrored an early career like Rodgers not Manning.

They're different people. Even the labels "bust" or "success" isn't a pure yes-no, as no football fan equates Alex Smith's suckitude right out of college with Justin Herbert's instant success, even though their opposite paths were lumped together as though they were identical parallels.

I think you’re trying to find a simple answer to something more complex.

This is perfectly articulated

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21 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

  • Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
  • Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
  • Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
  • Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
  • Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
  • Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
  • Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
  • Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
  • Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
  • Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
  • Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
  • Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
  • Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

  • Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
  • Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
  • David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
  • Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
  • Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
  • Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
  • Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
  • Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
  • Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
  • Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
  • Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
  • EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
  • Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
  • Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
  • DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
  • Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

  • Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
  • Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
  • Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
  • Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

  • Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
  • Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
  • Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
  • Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
  • Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
  • Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
  • Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
  • Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
  • Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
  • Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
  • Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
  • Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
  • Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

  • Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
  • Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
  • Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
  • Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
  • Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
  • Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
  • Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
  • Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
  • Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
  • Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
  • JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
  • Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
  • Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
  • Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
  • Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

  • Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
  • Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
  • Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
  • Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
  • Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
  • J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
  • Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
  • Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
  • Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
  • Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
  • Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
  • Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
  • Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

  • Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
  • Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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Very interesting breakdown.  But now my next thought is, "how much college experience, and at what level, did each of those guys have before being drafted?" That might need to be factored in to how soon you want to start a young QB in the NFL and what your expectations should be.

For example, Peyton Manning stayed at UT against quality SEC competition for 4 years.  He started right away in the NFL but led the league in INTs his first year.  The Colts quickly build a quality O around him to enhance his chances for success.

Wasn't ZW sort of a "one year wonder" who faced weak competition at BYU? That suggests to me that his bust potential is probably much higher than average, and if he does make it, that it would take him much more time than some others.

With the Jets set to content right now, benching him was a smart move, but it makes me wonder if they rushed a guy who wasn't ready, and might never be truly ready.

 

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20 minutes ago, TheClashFan said:

Very interesting breakdown.  But now my next thought is, "how much college experience, and at what level, did each of those guys have before being drafted?" That might need to be factored in to how soon you want to start a young QB in the NFL and what your expectations should be.

For example, Peyton Manning stayed at UT against quality SEC competition for 4 years.  He started right away in the NFL but led the league in INTs his first year.  The Colts quickly build a quality O around him to enhance his chances for success.

Wasn't ZW sort of a "one year wonder" who faced weak competition at BYU? That suggests to me that his bust potential is probably much higher than average, and if he does make it, that it would take him much more time than some others.

With the Jets set to content right now, benching him was a smart move, but it makes me wonder if they rushed a guy who wasn't ready, and might never be truly ready.

 

I think the answer to that question is:  Don’t draft that type of prospect in the first place.  

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Very nice job...enjoyed reading through it.

Most highly drafted QBs go to the 'worst teams' via draft order. And most bad teams have bad GMs and bad Coaches, which got them into the bad team ranking in the first place.

I'd be curious to see how QBs did based on which team drafted them. Not sure how you could rate a team/coaching staff/GM, but I think the environment a player (any player actually, but especially QBs) is drafted into probably makes the biggest factors leading to future success.

But back to the thread, I've always thought trial by fire is the best way to learn. Throw them in day one. Their heads will be on a swivel getting thru their first OTAs, TC, game plans, looong season, etc that their 2nd time thru will be so much easier. That's where the sophomore leap comes in...

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11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I think the answer to that question is:  Don’t draft that type of prospect in the first place.  

while I think that is very fair, and probably advisable, if you get in people who know what they are doing at the QB position, you let them analyze the player, their strengths, weaknesses, and trust them to make the right decision in the best interest of the team. Mahomes had a lot of issues fundamentally coming out of college and was seen as not NFL ready. Reid took him, developed him for a year, and now has the best QB in the league. But I dont' think Saleh and LaFleur can be trusted to anywhere near the same degree Reid can with the QB position

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On 11/30/2022 at 2:40 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

  • Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
  • Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
  • Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
  • Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
  • Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
  • Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
  • Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
  • Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
  • Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
  • Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
  • Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
  • Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
  • Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

  • Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
  • Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
  • David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
  • Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
  • Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
  • Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
  • Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
  • Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
  • Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
  • Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
  • Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
  • EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
  • Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
  • Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
  • DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
  • Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

  • Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
  • Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
  • Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
  • Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

  • Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
  • Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
  • Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
  • Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
  • Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
  • Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
  • Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
  • Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
  • Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
  • Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
  • Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
  • Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
  • Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

  • Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
  • Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
  • Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
  • Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
  • Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
  • Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
  • Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
  • Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
  • Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
  • Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
  • JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
  • Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
  • Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
  • Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
  • Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

  • Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
  • Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
  • Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
  • Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
  • Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

  • Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
  • J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
  • Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
  • Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
  • Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
  • Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
  • Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
  • Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
  • Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

  • Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
  • Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
  • Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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As others have mentioned, there doesn't seem to be a correlation between time waiting before starting as a QB in the NFL.  

What I think would be more interesting, is in correlation between QB success, and physical traits.  Such as height, hand size, other physical attributes such as quickness and speed, arm strength, mental aptitude and weight.

For instance, Chad Pennington was very smart and a natural leader, but had a noodle for an arm.  He was a decent QB, but IMO not one that deserved to be a 1st round QB.  Zach Wilson is not big, 6'2", not fast, but is a good athlete overall.  Physically, he wasn't the 2nd best overall as far as tangibles are concerned.  Fields has more attributes for sure.  Then again, Mac Jones has the height, he has a good arm, seems to be very smart, but not a great athlete.  

 

 

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