To sit or not to sit: Analysis of 1st/2nd round QBs from 1998-2020

[TheMo]

Oof this thread is full of statistical malpractice lol. 

@Jetsfan80 is on the money people. Certainly a multivariate analysis could help parse things out further. However, this straightforward analysis does start to indicate that as a variable sitting a QB is no panacea that solves all the woes of QB success the way some on here like to claim in hindsight. 

Take for instance Herbert. The plan was to sit him behind Taylor for a good while. Taylor was pretty solid too. So you would think he'd probably have sat for sometime and then would have been equally successful. Then magically people would say see he sat and was good. 

So long story short: this admittedly smaller data set does lend credence to the argument that sitting vs starting doesn't inherently correlate to success. 

[VJphillyfan]

On 11/30/2022 at 11:32 PM, Arsis said:

I think the correlation is that majority of qbs bust no matter what.

 

I don't think we should give someone an overly long leash based on draft order.

Yeah but there’s like Mount Rushmore of busts.  It’s one thing to miss on a Bryce Petty who everyone knew had zero chance of even becoming average in the nfl but a top 2 overall draft pick.  Now that’s like a Chernobyl level disaster

 

Mount Rushmore of Bust QBs:

 

Ryan Leaf

Jamarcus Russell

Tim Couch

Zach Wilson

 

[clayton163v]

On 11/30/2022 at 2:53 PM, Joejet said:

Nice compilation of data, it must have taken a long time. The results seem to indicate that everything is dependent upon the player and not how soon he played. Nice job, thanks.

I agree.  It makes a good argument.  It is true that outcome depends on the player.  However, the data cannot tell us whether some busts would have succeeded if allowed to sit and learn.  Conversely, the data cannot tell us whether some of the players who succeeded after sitting would have busted if they had been thrown to the wolves.

As for me, I stick to the recommendations in the scouting reports.  Ourlads is clear as a bell on this point.  Some guys are ready and some guys aren't.  They tell on them.  Do not play a guy if the report says redshirt him.  Geno and Zach were both obvious redshirts and for different reasons.  Geno had never played in a pro offense and Zack - well - go read the threads.  I always thought that Geno deserved better.  Same with Sam Darnold.  Chad got to sit for a season and I think he was ready right away.  If you cannot read defenses or have technique issues, the NFL will tear you apart.  Sam and Geno were not ready for the NFL.

I also think that the league has changed.  It is less forgiving of chalkboard mistakes.  Not just coaches and teammates.  Players on other teams blow guys up.  Like Coach Saleh said "it is hard to play QB" in the NFL.  I think the Jets should devote the third QB spot to a running QB who is being trained.  This year I like KJ Jefferson.  Reminds me of Fields and should cost a 5th.  Now that is worth sitting and training. 

[Averagejetsfan1421]

Great post, had to be time consuming

 Always been a crap shoot, wonder what the different statistics are when you factor in who was the coach at the time they were selected to the time they started, Zach Wilson with Andy Reid is a different quarterback and I would say pat Mahomes with Adam gase might be a different quarterback as well 

[Jetsfan80]

5 hours ago, Averagejetsfan1421 said:

Great post, had to be time consuming

 Always been a crap shoot, wonder what the different statistics are when you factor in who was the coach at the time they were selected to the time they started, Zach Wilson with Andy Reid is a different quarterback and I would say pat Mahomes with Adam gase might be a different quarterback as well 

Again, these are hypotheticals that can't be tested.  Suffice it to say that, given what we know, my best guess is that Andy Reid would never have drafted a prospect like Wilson in the first place.  And even if he did, he'd only be able to do so much with Wilson before looking to upgrade asap.  After all, he looked to upgrade over Alex Smith, and Smith was a pretty solid QB.  

Meanwhile, Pat Mahomes would probably be a top 10 or top 5 QB anywhere he went, even if his best success would certainly have been with Reid.

[jgb]

On 11/30/2022 at 8:40 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

It's time to finally put this discussion to bed, if possible.

Below you will find an analysis of 77 QBs selected in Rounds 1-2 of the NFL draft from 1998-2020 who could be fairly easily placed into the camp of "HIT" or "BUST". 

QBs who fall into more of a "gray area" (decent journeymen, successful backups, out the league under weird circumstances, or jury still out) were excluded.  Those 10 QBs were as follows:  Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love.

I'm sure there will be some quibbles on what is considered a "HIT" or a "BUST" but for the most part, I imagine there will be agreement on the placement of at least 60 or so of these QBs, giving us plenty of sample size to make a proper analysis.

Those 77 QBs were then placed into 8 different buckets:  HIT/BUST and how long they sat before being named a starting QB (0-3 weeks; 4-8 weeks; 9-16 weeks; >1 full season).  

Below were the resulting buckets:

 

1) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - HITS (12)

• Peyton Manning (1998 - 1.1)
• Carson Palmer (2003 - 1.1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 1.11)
• Matt Ryan (2008 - 1.3)
• Joe Flacco (2008 - 1.18)
• Matthew Stafford (2009 - 1.1)
• Cam Newton (2011 - 1.1)
• Andy Dalton (2011 - 2.35)
• Andrew Luck (2012 - 1.1)
• Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 1.8)
• Derek Carr (2014 - 2.36)
• Deshaun Watson (2017 - 1.12)
• Joe Burrow (2020 - 1.1)
• Justin Herbert (2020 - 1.6)

 

2) Played right away (within first 3 weeks of rookie season) - BUSTS (16)

• Tim Couch (1999 - 1.1)
• Quincy Carter (2001 - 2.53)
• David Carr (2002 - 1.1)
• Joey Harrington (2002 - 1.3)
• Kyle Boller (2003 - 1.19)
• Mark Sanchez (2009 - 1.5)
• Sam Bradford (2010 - 1.1)
• Jimmy Clausen (2010 - 2.48)
• Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 1.10)
• Robert Griffin IIII (2012 - 1.2)
• Brandon Weeden (2012 - 1.22)
• EJ Manuel (2013  - 1.16)
• Marcus Mariota (2015 - 1.2)
• Carson Wentz (2016 - 1.2)
• DeShone Kizer (2017 - 2.52)
• Sam Darnold (2018 - 1.3)

 

3) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - Hits (5)

• Charlie Batch (1998 - 2.60)
• Michal Vick (2001 - 1.1)
• Alex Smith (2005 - 1.1)
• Josh Allen (2018 - 1.7)
• Tua Tagovailoa (2020 - 1.5)

 

4) Sat for 4-8 weeks  - BUSTS (13)

• Ryan Leaf (1998 - 1.2)
• Cade McNown (1999 - 1.12)
• Patrick Ramsey (2002 - 1.32)
• Byron Leftwich (2003 - 1.7)
• Vince Young (2006 - 1.3)
• Matt Leinart (2006 - 1.10)
• Josh Freeman (2009 - 1.17)
• Christian Ponder (2011 - 1.12)
• Blake Bortles (2014 - 1.3)
• Paxton Lynch (2016 - 1.26)
• Mitchell Trubisky (2017 - 1.2)
• Baker Mayfield (2018 - 1.1)
• Josh Rosen (2018 - 1.10)

 

5) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season  - HITS (7)

• Donovan McNabb (1999 - 1.2)
• Daunte Culpepper (1999 - 1.11)
• Eli Manning (2004 - 1.1)
• Jay Cutler (2006 - 1.11)
• Patrick Mahomes (2017 - 1.10)
• Lamar Jackson 2018 - 1.32)
• Jalen Hurts (2020 - 2.53)

 

6) Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Akili Smith (1999 - 1.3)
• Shaun King (1999 - 2.50)
• Rex Grossman (2003 - 1.22)
• Tarvaris Jackson (2006 - 2.64)
• JaMarcus Russell (2007 - 1.1)
• Tim Tebow (2010 - 1.25)
• Johnny Manziel (2014 - 1.22)
• Dwayne Haskins (2019 - 1.15)
• Drew Lock (2019 - 2.42)

 

7) Sat for > 1 full season  - HITS (6)

• Chad Pennington (2000 - 1.18)
• Marc Bulger (2000 - 2.168)
• Drew Brees (2001 - 1.32)
• Phillip Rivers (2004 - 1.4)
• Aaron Rodgers (2005 - 1.24)
• Jimmy Garoppolo (2014 - 2.62)

 

8 ) Sat for > 1 full season   - BUSTS (9)

• Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 - 2.59)
• J.P. Losman (2004 - 1.22)
• Jason Campbell (2005 - 1.25)
• Brady Quinn (2007 - 1.22)
• Kevin Kolb (2007 - 2.36)
• Drew Stanton (2007 - 2.43)
• Jake Locker (2011 - 1.8)
• Brock Osweiler (2012 - 2.57)
• Christian Hackenberg (2016 - 2.51)

 

By the numbers:

• Started right away or within 3 weeks:  57 % Bust rate
• Sat for 4-8 weeks:  72 % Bust rate
• Sat for 9 weeks - 1 full season:  56 % Bust rate
• Sat for > 1 full season: 60 % Bust rate

 

So is there any correlation between sitting and success in the NFL?  Not so much.  

 

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Yeah but Mahomes sat so **** your data, dork pants.

[Larz]

@Sperm Edwards

[Jetsfan80]

13 minutes ago, Larz said:

@Sperm Edwards

*** Bracing for @Sperm Edwards to eviscerate my analysis with a well-crafted essay that would take up 14 pages in 10-point Helvetica font. ***

[Sperm Edwards]

31 minutes ago, Larz said:

@Sperm Edwards

Ok, I remember this thread now.

Yeah this doesn't prove anything other than there have been successes and failures among who've started right away & those who sat. The further presumed conclusion that therefore everyone who sat right away would've had the same outcome is nonsensical. It doesn't mean that. Not even a little bit.

If I put you into a given college at age 16, and you failed out, does that mean you still would've failed out if you were given the extra time/teaching you needed (i.e. fully through HS) and entered at age 18 with 2 more years of knowledge and personal maturity? Of course not.

If I pointed out that many others were able to make that jump without finishing HS does that therefore mean no one actually needed to finish HS in order to not flunk out of college, with the rationale that "if you weren't ready at 16 you were never going to be ready ever"? Of course not, no matter how much I showed that some were able to do so, and also that some weren't able to do so even after the benefit of finishing HS. It'd be stupid to even suggest it, yet this is doing just that. 

What about a prediction of, "If I got married at 22, I definitely would've gotten divorced."

I can surely compile a list that shows supporting distribution of those who got married at 22 and stayed married, those whose marriage failed after starting that young, and also the same  outcomes for those who waited until several years later. Meanwhile I know that, at 22, with my specific background (and the cray-cray I was "dating" back then), I wasn't ready & was even more immature, obnoxious, etc, than I am today. Pointing out that it worked out for others in that scenario doesn't prove that it therefore would've worked for me, with the "proof" being my successful marriage that commenced at a later age (to a different woman that I didn't know at 22). I mean, it's just a dumb conclusion that doesn't take into account any number of external factors that makes one's life different from another's. 

It's a nice lump of data for QB history, but all it means, ultimately, is that many didn't require clipboard time to be successful NFL QBs; that others didn't succeed in the NFL even with this clipboard time; and it means nothing more than those things alone.

It does not "prove" that those who flamed out after an early start would've had the same bust outcome in a totally different scenario. That's just ridiculous. 

There is such a thing as a prospect who's more pro-ready than another. Even some who sat, and succeeded, readily admit things would've gone badly if they took the field right away out of school. I'm specifically thinking of both of Green Bay's last two star QBs. One wasn't ready mentally, and the other wasn't ready physically, and they've both said so. And these are two of the most successful passers of all time.

No offense to the author, but it was a silly conclusion then and it's still just as silly now.

[Sperm Edwards]

19 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

*** Bracing for @Sperm Edwards to eviscerate my analysis with a well-crafted essay that would take up 14 pages in 10-point Helvetica font. ***

Shows what you know. I only took 2 pages.