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19 minutes ago, football guy said:

To be clear, this is not reporting or inside info or talking to anyone. This is purely my opinion. Read it or don’t, take what you want from it, agree or disagree, but I need to vent. 

This team is done this year. They may have surpassed expectations record wise, but the way this team has collapsed is going to be a major issue. I feared that the decisions made this year would blow up in the Jets face. I hope it doesn’t, but it’s becoming very clear that we’re entering a make or break season for this franchise next year. What happens over the next 12 months will dictate the next 10 years of Jets football. 

You can say what you want about the QB—it doesn’t matter. Insert Wilson, White, Flacco, Streveler, or anyone absent Josh Allen and this team is toast this year due to the horrific decline of the offensive line, which is the lifeblood of this offensive scheme. To make matters worse, LaFleur has become a victim of his own conviction RE: marriage to the scheme. Even when Streveler drove down the field on the read-option “Streveler” package, MLF reverted back to his system and it inevitably went south as well absent Streveler unscripted runs.

MLF is a good play designer and in my opinion can he a great coordinator. But his problem, much like Adam Gase, is his conviction with his scheme. Yes, when everything goes right and everything is perfect, the offense can be unstoppable. He knows how to design guys open and if the QB hits them in stride with timing, it can lead to rhythm and YAC plays. Different schemes, but very similar for the Peyton Manning/Adam Gase-led Broncos. But when you rely on the run game to thrive and you don’t have the personnel to properly run block, you don’t have a RB who can consistently generate yards after contact, you can’t effectively use play action. When you can’t use play-action and you can’t pass block, you need a QB who is a wizard at reading defenses and can get the ball out quickly. When you have a young QB who is not seeing the field from the pocket well nor throwing with precise timing, it’s time to rip up the offense and find ways to generate consistently whether it be an RPO/roll-out offense with Zach, a quick-pass offense with White/Flacco, or a read-option offense with Streveler. The defense is still good but they’re not dominant which is fine; you can win with a bend-don’t-break defense but if you can’t find a way to build an offense around the players you have, you’re toast.

The Zach Wilson situation is clearly a massive issue. Maybe the guy doesn’t have what it took to be a great QB—I don’t know the answer to that—but I’ve seen far worse QBs perform in dialed down offenses. Sure it could be smoke and mirrors (see CHI-Trubisky), but at the very least that philosophy is driven with the intent of building the players confidence incrementally without sacrificing production, something the Jets coaching staff has not done with Wilson or any of their talented players for that. To make matters worse, they knew certain issues existed with fundamentals and footwork (see Greg Knapp’s tragic passing, hiring Cavanaugh pre-season, hiring John Beck midseason) and communication (Zach asking for MLF to be on the sideline), yet made zero adjustments this season suggesting that dumbing down the QB room would be an addition by subtraction while relying on a largely unproven Rob Calabrese to be the QB coach + buffer between the QB and OC. They put way too much weight into Flacco figuring that he would be the de facto player-coach, but asking Flacco to be a teacher of anything other than concept and how to handle certain situations is gross negligence. All that aside, it’s abundantly clear that the guy is rattled and the staff deserves some blame for that. Benching him midseason had a positive impact in terms of him becoming more humble, putting in more effort to clean up his mechanics, and working to play within the offense, but he and they put unnecessary attention on it, making it a distraction. The 3rd pass of a game was a broken screen play which was correctly thrown into the dirt and the boo birds were loud as ever… I don’t blame fans for booing, I blame the organization for not understanding how to protect the QB with their actions and messaging. It’s this same lack of patience that has played a part in our lengthily history of QB issues. You can chalk guys up as busts, but Brett Favre the same way and he went on to have an MVP caliber season in Minnesota the following year.

I predicted this when Wilson was benched and I hope I’m wrong, but the way the second half of this season has been handled likely blows up in our face. For the first time in forever they have a good HC, a good GM, and a young nucleus of talent, but now they’ve put themselves into a position where they must win next year. I worry that ownership and the front office will want LaFleur gone, which could fracture the relationship with Saleh and the coaching staff. With Jimmy Garoppolo getting injured, LaFleur may be able to pitch bringing him in to compete with Zach and Mike, but there’s no telling Jimmy would even want to be a part of this if he has other options. And even if Jimmy were to come here and win the job or lose it to Zach/Mike, the whole thing would blow up if they don’t make the playoffs. This has the potential to be a messy offseason; they don’t have enough money to rebuild the offensive line with proven players, especially if they add a veteran QB. Unless they made significant changes to the defense, they will need to unearth under-the-radar guys and nail their draft picks if they’re going to rebuild the offensive line. 

Very sad day to be a Jets fan. I’m not ignoring replies or questions if I don’t answer, I just need a break. 

TLDR 

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the oline is and continues to be a huge problem.  maybe even more huge than wilson.  no run game and less than optimal pass blocking is not going to help any qb.  douglas knows this is a problem and has used 4 fairly high draft picks to bring in new faces.  but all four of those guys are injured and one is out of football completely.  so the search continues.  free agents? hard to say any of them are worth keeping past this season.  maybe the game film and closer analysis says otherwise but they just aren't making it easy for the rb's to get to the second level.  and lafleur is a problem because it looks like he doesn't want to change his scheme and adapt more to the players he's got.

the bottom line it will be a miracle if this team wins the next game.  it'll be a christmas miracle if this team wins out and all of the other teams fall away.

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I'm not certain it's an issue that there isn't enough money to sign free agents on the offensive line. 

We seem to not learn that free agency is to add final pieces, not build from. If a big names shakes free into free agency, it's because the team he just played for, who knows him intimately, sees a red flag going forward. See: Tomlinson and countless others.

Our best guys (see AVT) are guys we drafted. Keep doing it, high and often.

Face the fact that we're not getting a top tier QB any time soon and we're going to have to overcompensate by giving a JAG (which would be an upgrade) a lot of clean looks and a very good running game. If you have no hope of finding a dominant QB, do it elsewhere on that side of the ball. Build something that knocks opposing d-lines in the goddamn teeth every Sunday.

 

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"and a young nucleus of talent, but now they’ve put themselves into a position where they must win next year."

I think given where the Jets are this could be their undoing.  It depends in large part what they think about Becton.

I think if they had a solid OL and QB under contract in 2023, they could add the pieces to compete for a playoff run.  How does a team that does not have a decent QB under contract in year 1 expect to make the playoffs in year 2?  Possible, but unlikely. 

Despite some early draft projections that give the Jets a starting OT in the draft, history shows that starting OTs seldom make it past the 10th pick.  

The Jets can no longer to overpay guys on defense like Lawson and Mosley, and will need to pay OT and QB.   The only starting OL under contract for 2023 are AVT, Mitchell, Brown and Becton.  The later two are very iffy.   Wilson cannot be counted on.  2023 will be a sideways year.  

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I'd be curious to read an in-depth analysis on some other teams in the league who have similar or the same problems with their offense and how they overcome or overcame it. 

I'm looking forward to watching the Eagles on Sunday. They are 13-1, arguably the best team in the NFL, and their starting QB, Jalen Hurts will be sidelined, so the backup, Minshew, will play.

The Eagles can run the ball. They average 4.8 yards per carry. They have 30 rushing TD's. So maybe the the Eagles OC, Shane Steichen, isn't tasked with much concerning any tweaks he has to make concerning the QB.

Still I think it will be a great game to observe, and maybe use as a yardstick to measure what works and what doesn't. 

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24 minutes ago, Asymmetrical said:

Offensive line is going to need some work but really most of the issues go away with league average qb play and the return of AVT/Breece. 

And possibly becton, and likely a new tackle in the first round.  The OL will get reinforcements.  The big question is the qb, but at least we know who it won’t be. 

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17 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Dude, thank you for sharing the info you have this year. It’s always been interesting stuff and I personally look forward to reading more of it in the future. That said, this post boils down to “Saleh and LaFleur failed Zach Wilson and now they’re on track to pay for their crimes…which would be a shame.” 

Saleh has not read the room well. He may be a very good coach some day. But I am starting to think not this team in this iteration. 

 

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I'm gonna say this up front so its perfectly clear - Zach Wilson was horrible last night period and there's no defending that .

Last night's game however was an embarrassment on all levels.  The whole team sucked with the exception of maybe Q and Zeurlein,

11 yards rushing by the rb's , Jax dominated the LOS easily running for 4-5 YPC at will.  The Oline looked like matadors in a bull fight.

Special teams with a shanked punt and personal foul on top of that , countless motion, and other dead ball fouls on the Offense constantly setting 2nd/3rd and long scenarios. 

The sad thing is despite the bad weather the crowd was electric at the start of course until Carl Lawson couldn't scoop and score and the O went backwards from the 15 - all down field from there . Major disappointment from this team last night in all phases. 

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The nucleus is in place, something we haven’t had in a long long time. 
 

Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson are a nice set of WRs. Bring in one more guy who is capable this off-season (Mecole Hardman from KC?)

We are getting Breece back next year to go with Bam should make for a nice 1-2 punch. 
 

Offensive line I would use a 1st rd pick on a tackle. Maybe Brown comes back next year. Move on from Fant and Laken. O line could look like Brown/rookie AVT McGovern Herbig Mitchell/Becton 

 


 

 A veteran QB could step into this team and succeed.

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1 minute ago, Scott Dierking said:

Saleh has not read the room well. He may be a very good coach some day. But I am starting to think not this team in this iteration. 

 

I disagree, i think saleh has been forced to play this kid and is paid handsomely to say good things about him.  I doubt he’s on the roster next season.  I think saleh knows exactly what is going on in his locker room, the question is what will douglas do about it?

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12 minutes ago, Green Truth said:

NIce write-up, but the kid can not process at all and when he does finally get to the right guy, the ball thrown is usually off the mark. Can he be fixed, I doubt it very highly. They need to move on.

He is broken beyond repair at this point, his psyche is shot. He will never be able to play QB in NY again after last night. They may have to trot him out there these next 2 weeks, due to injury, but he is done after that.

Best thing for Zach is that his last 2 games are on the road, so instead of boo's he will hear laughing. Its sad as I wanted him to succeed just as much as anybody, but he is done in NY.

I see your point but I'm not sure I agree.  The salary cap forces teams to find QB's out of school that can quickly function at a pro level.  For teams like the Chiefs, Bills, Chargers, Eagles, Bengals, etc.  they hit paydirt.  Maybe Jax with Trevor now too.  With Zach, it was clearly too big a jump.  But it's tough to say "never" with him and some of these guys.  Geno is playing good ball now and it took him nearly a decade.  For all we know, the light may go on for Darnold at some point too.  The system just doesn't allow teams enough time to develop QB talent.

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6 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

And possibly becton, and likely a new tackle in the first round.  The OL will get reinforcements.  The big question is the qb, but at least we know who it won’t be. 

We can't count on Becton for anything.  AVT is in place.  The rest are up for debate.

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3 minutes ago, choon328 said:

Speaking of offensive line...

 

The offensive line is worse with Wilson bc he holds the ball too long and doesn't play within the rhythm of the offense. You can help a struggling, depleted offensive line by getting the ball out on time. 

The undoing of this front office and coaching staff will be keeping Zach Wilson on this team. They need to move on and accept the mistake they made and try to correct it. 

The book is out on Wilson. Use 8 man fronts and send late pressure on passing downs. He can't recognize a blitz if his life depended on it. His lack of situational awareness, ability to read defenses and recognize pressure is singlehandedly causing the offensive line to struggle on run downs and passing downs. 

The OL knows this and i think it’s part of the reason there’s no energy when wilson plays. 

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23 minutes ago, Larz said:

Zach was better in his first game as a rookie.  Whatever happened since then at this point has to be put on him. Lafleur showed last night that he can tailor an offense to a QB.  I was really wrong about that. @More Cowbell and others were right about it. Oh well I guess I just didn’t want to face the reality that they did it……again 

Not so sure about that , they had the package for Streveler which clearly caught Jax off guard. After the first possession with Strev they adapted and simply gave up the dink/dunks while keeping contain on the QB runs.  Strev is nothing but a Tebow light , unless Lafleur wants to totally revamp his offense it will never work with Strev. 

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1 minute ago, choon328 said:

Speaking of offensive line...

 

The offensive line is worse with Wilson bc he holds the ball too long and doesn't play within the rhythm of the offense. You can help a struggling, depleted offensive line by getting the ball out on time. 

The undoing of this front office and coaching staff will be keeping Zach Wilson on this team. They need to move on and accept the mistake they made and try to correct it. 

Again maybe when teams see Zach they know he cannot beat them through the air and stack the **** against the run.......The OL sure as hell was ok when White was playing as Bam in those 3 games ran 46-230 and a 5.0 YPC.......When Zach the last 2 games 19-21 and 1.1 YPC.......Coincidence?..

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8 minutes ago, Asymmetrical said:

Offensive line is going to need some work but really most of the issues go away with league average qb play and the return of AVT/Breece. 

Absent Peyton Manning or Josh Allen, this scheme can't work with this offensive line. We cannot establish any form of traditional run game since the bye. On designed run players we've run for 424 yards on 127 attempts since the bye (3.3 YPC). Those numbers are bloated by a 48 yard run by Bam Knight against Minnesota and a 32 yard run by Ty Johnson against Chicago in garbage time. It's not the running back's faults either... Duane Brown is 38 years old playing with a torn right rotator cuff; George Fant is playing through a partially torn MCL. They have no one reliable behind them. Tomlinson is constantly taking on a ton of guys inside because defenses are attacking Brown's inside shoulder. Herbig is dealing with similar issues because he doesn't have help to his right. It's a total mess. 

 

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Just now, JetsMetsRangers said:

Again maybe when teams see Zach they know he cannot beat them through the air and stack the **** against the run.......The OL sure as hell was ok when White was playing as Bam in those 3 games ran 46-230 and a 5.0 YPC.......When Zach the last 2 games 19-21 and 1.1 YPC.......Coincidence?..

?,  the issues with the Jets not running the ball when Wilson plays starts and ends with him. 

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26 minutes ago, JetsMetsRangers said:

Same OL when White played somehow not only looked better but the offense produced 486.....466......and i believe close to 350 yards of offense.........They may not very good but just maybe having someone who actually sees the field and gets rid of the ball can make the offense look like an NFL team as compared to the garbage we have seen the last 3 games.....Coincidence that the OL looks like **** with Zach?........More like he has no clue to me.......

If you didn't notice that same OL almost got MW killed the last game he played. If they had started him last night we might be reading his obit this morning. 

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4 minutes ago, football guy said:

Absent Peyton Manning or Josh Allen, this scheme can't work with this offensive line. We cannot establish any form of traditional run game since the bye. On designed run players we've run for 424 yards on 127 attempts since the bye (3.3 YPC). Those numbers are bloated by a 48 yard run by Bam Knight against Minnesota and a 32 yard run by Ty Johnson against Chicago in garbage time. It's not the running back's faults either... Duane Brown is 38 years old playing with a torn right rotator cuff; George Fant is playing through a partially torn MCL. They have no one reliable behind them. Tomlinson is constantly taking on a ton of guys inside because defenses are attacking Brown's inside shoulder. Herbig is dealing with similar issues because he doesn't have help to his right. It's a total mess. 

 

Why is the running game effective when White plays but not when Wilson plays? There is a huge disparity between the two. Fix the QB position and the line magically gets better. It's the same reason why Patriots offensive lineman were Pro Bowlers with Tom Brady and busts when they moved on. The QB can help the line by understanding how to play the position and make quick decisions. This isn't rocket science. 

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