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This is why I am so OPTIMISTIC about the J-E-T-S moving forward.


OtherwiseHappyinLife

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2 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Yes, I'm a nerd ....  Check out the following table I put together showing the Jets investments in premium positions:  QB, LT, WRs, Edge, Pass Rushing DT, CBs.

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The Jets under Joe Douglas have primarily used the First 2 Rounds of the Draft to acquire talent at premium positions while mostly using Free Agency (and other means) to acquire what they believe to be quality starters at non premium positions like Center, Right Tackle, Guard, Tight End, Safety, Linebacker ..  Yes, they did sign both WR Corey Davis and Edge Carl Lawson in free agency, but at a time when they didn't have enough draft capital to reasonably fill these positions. 

1. Where did they miss?  QB, LT, and WR.  Listen, we know QB is the biggest one so the goal is NOT to defend JD but rather to look at his misses in terms of the salary cap implications.  You know, finite pool of money to acquire competitive talent and the flexibility to pivot when you inevitably miss on some of your acquisitions.

The Jets will be over-paying Zach Wilson $9M per year in 2023-2024.  They'll also be slightly overpaying Mekhi Becton as a talented swing tackle (assuming he stays healthy; if he doesn't then that's another $6M in 2023 wasted).  Denzel Mims is essentially a rounding error.  

2. Where did they hit?  Pass Rushing DT, WR #1, CB #1 & 2, Left/Right Edge AND drafting elite performers at non premium positions like Guard and Running Back.

On a peak annual basis, the Jets will save up to $77.3M in salary cap in terms of overperformance versus pay (up to $65M net of the underperformance above).  Quinnen Williams will very likely be the first grossly underpaid Jet to receive a market adjustment in the form of a new contract.  But the Jets have several elite players on below market contracts extending out multiple years.  That's obviously why you draft premium positions in the top 2 rounds.

The salary cap ramifications are enormous longer term and in the near future should be more than sufficient to cover the $10-15M annual overpayment for Wilson/Becton in 2023 ($10M for Wilson in 2024) PLUS dead cap hits for potential cuts like Laken Tomlinson ($4.3M each in 2023/2024 if designated post June 1 cut), CJ Mosely ($7.5M each in 2023/2024 if designated post June 1 cut; although important to note that money was already earned in signing bonus & deferred 2022 salary), and Braxton Berrios ($3.2M in 2023). 

3. What does this suggest they might do in the 2023 off season?  Continue to draft premium positions in rounds 1 & 2 while filling out their roster elsewhere.  

I see a big playmaking WR in round 1 and possibly a high potential system QB to compete with a Mike White type in round 2.  A reality check is that the Jets are not in an OVERALL 2023 salary cap position to add 2 starting caliber veteran QBs while still paying Wilson his guarantees.  If not QB, round 2 might instead be reserved for what the Jets believe is an elite Center, Guard, Linebacker, Free Safety.  Much like their AVT and Breece strategy.  2024 is when I believe the Jets draft their LT in round 1.  Right now, the cupboard is bare at WR opposite G Wilson while the Jets will have a healthy Duane Brown and a swing tackle in Becton or Max Mitchell.  Believe they draft more tackle depth in round 3-4. 

Free Agency will be used to replace overpaid / underperforming offensive linemen and add speed to linebacker & or free safety.  

But make no mistake, from a balance sheet asset and liabilities perspective, the NY Jets should be in very good shape in the next few years to pivot on QB, LT & WR while using free agency and the draft to complete their roster elsewhere.

Thoughts? 

 

 

 

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Agree with much of your thoughts. I do think it will be an offense heavy draft and I do see us drafting a QB.  Big WR, OL and QB are huge needs. One thing I disagree with. If Becton is healthy he will start.

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Some good points. Obviously Wilson is a huge problem. Had he panned out that would be a position they wouldn’t have to use a high pick on for the next 3 seasons.  I just can’t lose the feeling at the moment that lafleur or the coaching isn’t doing everything right.  Consider the wrs. Both Mims and Moore have good talent but both have been in the dog house until recently.  Granted Wilson had something to do with Moore disappearing but just what did lafleur do to get Moore more involved?  Sort of the same goes for Mims. He showed some good talent but only recently has he been used and mainly because Davis was injured.  I think the bottom line is they can have all pros but if they’re used wrong by the coaches then they will fail.

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1 minute ago, rangerous said:

Some good points. Obviously Wilson is a huge problem. Had he panned out that would be a position they wouldn’t have to use a high pick on for the next 3 seasons.  I just can’t lose the feeling at the moment that lafleur or the coaching isn’t doing everything right.  Consider the wrs. Both Mims and Moore have good talent but both have been in the dog house until recently.  Granted Wilson had something to do with Moore disappearing but just what did lafleur do to get Moore more involved?  Sort of the same goes for Mims. He showed some good talent but only recently has he been used and mainly because Davis was injured.  I think the bottom line is they can have all pros but if they’re used wrong by the coaches then they will fail.

Absolutely.  But let’s save that one for another day ;)

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I like reading optimistic thoughts but I'll remain pessimistic about this team until we figure out the QB position.

While we've clearly added a lot of talent this past offseason, we probably only have about a 2-3 year window until these guys start getting paid.

Do we have what it takes to win a championship in that time?  Hard to imagine that scenario without a FQB. 

Can MFW be that guy?  Possibly.  But I'm still not confident he'll even be back next year.   If JD signs a veteran, is he going to also pay MFW?  And is MFW going to want to re-sign here if he's treated as a perennial backup?!

 

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18 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I like reading optimistic thoughts but I'll remain pessimistic about this team until we figure out the QB position.

While we've clearly added a lot of talent this past offseason, we probably only have about a 2-3 year window until these guys start getting paid.

Do we have what it takes to win a championship in that time?  Hard to imagine that scenario without a FQB. 

Can MFW be that guy?  Possibly.  But I'm still not confident he'll even be back next year.   If JD signs a veteran, is he going to also pay MFW?  And is MFW going to want to re-sign here if he's treated as a perennial backup?!

 

Fair thought.  Think our overall performance at premium positions gives us a chance though.

To get straight to the point, San Fran is our model.  1 SB, a deep run last year and set up well this year to make another run.  We’ll see how Purdy does.

Yes- SF made a bold move to get a franchise QB .. yet they continue to perform without one and might end up learning that they didn’t need one.

For clarity, I’m defining franchise QB as an elite QB.

Denver and Cleveland might also learn that the cost/risk has become too high.

I’ll take a quality starting QB with upside who is a perfect fit for this offense.  That’s why I continue using the draft to find one.  No more boom or busts.

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@OtherwiseHappyinLife

Great to read thank you for taking the time to put it all together. My two cents, I don’t see the wide receiver department as a big problem. with Wilson, Moore, Mimms and Davis, that’s not too shabby. Berrios, I think will be cut. So maybe they draft someone in the later rounds and  hope for a diamond in the rough.

I think they need to bite the bullet, and buy themselves a quarterback. Do you think they could afford a 50 million /yr QB?

 

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9 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

@OtherwiseHappyinLife

Great to read thank you for taking the time to put it all together. My two cents, I don’t see the wide receiver department as a big problem. with Wilson, Moore, Mimms and Davis, that’s not too shabby. Berrios, I think will be cut. So maybe they draft someone in the later rounds and  hope for a diamond in the rough.

I think they need to bite the bullet, and buy themselves a quarterback. Do you think they could afford a 50 million /yr QB?

 

Other than GW, the WR position is a mess.  Mims has mostly been a bust.  There's a real chance that neither Corey Davis nor Berrios will be back next year.  Eli Moore has underwhelmed (plus complained).  

We badly need to draft (or add via FA) offense this year.  2 OL plus a WR at a minimum.

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1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Other than GW, the WR position is a mess.  Mims has mostly been a bust.  There's a real chance that neither Corey Davis or Berrios will be back next year.  Eli Moore has underwhelmed (plus complained).  

Yes, the numbers don’t look good, but I think with a competent quarterback, they should improve. the talent is there, Mimms has also become a darn good run blocker too. Davis is good…WHEN healthy however.

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5 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Other than GW, the WR position is a mess.  Mims has mostly been a bust.  There's a real chance that neither Corey Davis or Berrios will be back next year.  Eli Moore has underwhelmed (plus complained).  

We badly need to draft (or add via FA) offense this year.  2 OL plus a WR at a minimum.

 

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2 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Yes, the numbers don’t look good, but I think with a competent quarterback, they should improve. the talent is there, Mimms has also become a darn good run blocker too. Davis is good…WHEN healthy however.

Mims is not a good WR though.

I like Corey Davis but he makes at least 1 boneheaded play (sometimes more) every game and he's constantly missing games with injury.

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51 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I like reading optimistic thoughts but I'll remain pessimistic about this team until we figure out the QB position.

While we've clearly added a lot of talent this past offseason, we probably only have about a 2-3 year window until these guys start getting paid.

Do we have what it takes to win a championship in that time?  Hard to imagine that scenario without a FQB. 

Boom. This is it. Our window opens next year and it’s only for 2-3 seasons as you said.

Not winning anything without really good QB play. They need to figure that and the OL out asap.

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19 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

@OtherwiseHappyinLife

Great to read thank you for taking the time to put it all together. My two cents, I don’t see the wide receiver department as a big problem. with Wilson, Moore, Mimms and Davis, that’s not too shabby. Berrios, I think will be cut. So maybe they draft someone in the later rounds and  hope for a diamond in the rough.

I think they need to bite the bullet, and buy themselves a quarterback. Do you think they could afford a 50 million /yr QB?

 

The market has shifted to pay elite WRs BIG MONEY, recognizing that $50M per year is too expensive for a QB.  No QB has ever won a SB taking up more than 12% of the salary cap.
 

Plus what type of assets do we need to give up to acquire one?  The Browns gave up 3 first round picks + gave an enormous contract.

SF is my own model because the modern Jets are never smart or lucky enough to grab a future hall of fame QB.

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5 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Mims is not a good WR though.

I like Corey Davis but he makes at least 1 boneheaded play (sometimes more) every game and he's constantly missing games with injury.

I wouldn’t give up on Mimms he could be a decent 3. Moore needs to be the 2. 
That’s the issue, can he be the Robin to Wilson’s Batman? Not sure…

Still, with  Zach being so awfully inaccurate we couldn’t really determine their ceilings yet. 
 

Agree with everything you say about Davis. Catch da ball!

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1 hour ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

I wouldn’t give up on Mimms he could be a decent 3. Moore needs to be the 2. 
That’s the issue, can he be the Robin to Wilson’s Batman? Not sure…

Still, with  Zach being so awfully inaccurate we couldn’t really determine their ceilings yet. 
 

Agree with everything you say about Davis. Catch da ball!

Holy sh*t people still going on about the Mims bullsh*t heading into year 4. lol

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Maybe the problem is drafting for need and not best available player?

Regardless, I think your premise is a good one - That JD properly considers position when targeting draft picks.  

Personally, I like taking some risk, shooting for the potential blue chip prospect though that comes with more “miss” potential.  Most of our misses were not reaches so while they are disappointing I don’t fault JD much on each.  The influx of talent indicates that we have had a healthy if not winning “hit” rate.  It’s complete nonsense that JD is on the hotseat.  Taking heads, posters or YouTubers spouting that JD needs to pay for the unproductive #2 pick must not follow the team closely or with common sense. 

Im still hopeful that Becton ends up more than a miss. 
 

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3 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Bennett III ?

@Lith when do you see him being drafted? 

25 year old rookie.  About 5' 9".  Slight build.  Best features are the intangibles, not measureables.  Can run the read option.  Decent speed/quickness.  Arm strength was better this year than I expected, but at his age, I don't see the athletic profile changing much.  He is a nice college football game manager. 

Not sure he gets drafted at all.  Maybe R7.

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