The Mystery of Laken Tomlinson's Sudden Decline

[LockeJET]

What legit expensive veterans have ever come here and done well? (Reed can still cash in he’s young) Once you come to the Jets, cash in and  see what a clown organization we are up top all the way to the bottom, it takes the life out of you to play hard. You just take the money and coast. 

[Untouchable]

Cut Tomlinson, sign Nate Davis, move AVT back to LG, draft Skoronski at #13 and a developmental center in the mid-rounds.

 

LT Duane Brown 

LG Alijah Vera-Tucker

C Connor McGovern

RG Nate Davis

RT Peter Skoronski 

 

Put a guy like Carr/Garoppolo behind that line with Breece coming back and we’re in the playoffs, possibly competing for a division title with Buffalo.

[NYJCAP2]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Check what it says for POST June 1 cut

$14M dead cap hit

[Jimmy 2 Times]

I'm sure playing next to a one armed tackle all year hurt.  

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

I would leave AVT at RT.  Best way to extract value from that trade-up.

Easier to find a serviceable to good OG in FA or draft than it is to find an OT.

AVT is a serviceable tackle, but he’s a dominant guard. I think you out your best OL at his natural position. We want dominance from him. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

2 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Release Laken and move AVT back to LG. Resign Herbig. OLine could look like:

LT:Brown/Rookie

LG: AVT

C McGovern

RG Herbig 

RT: Becton/Mitchell 

Assuming Brown comes back / is healthy + we draft another tackle rounds 3-4, then I'm ok with left tackle, LG and RT.  There is suddenly real motivation for Becton and I'm assuming Mitchell clears the health hurdles. 

Our Center & RG play need upgrades in my opinion.  McGovern was a disaster by year's end and has been a main reason why we still cannot stop blitzes & stunts.  Maybe he's not a cerebral player or good communicator, who knows but this hasn't been fixed in 3 years so why should we all of a sudden believe it will be.

Herbig is a limited player who I would bring back as a top back-up but not a starter.

Read the 49ers are moving away from the zone to a power system, maybe that's a consideration here if there are real reasons behind the transition.  

 

[Sonny Werblin]

31 minutes ago, NYJCAP2 said:

$14M dead cap hit

I normally use Sportrac and up until a few days ago they were reflecting a $4.6 million cap hit for a post 6/1 cut. They have since changed it. So, it is pretty safe to say they had it wrong before. Looks like Laken will be a Jet in 2023. I hope he gets himself straight.

[Rich Thornburgh]

10 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

AVT is a serviceable tackle, but he’s a dominant guard. I think you out your best OL at his natural position. We want dominance from him. 

Start Becton at LT and Mitchell at RT

[Larz]

No mystery. He went full Wilkerson 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

here's a crazy idea: joe douglas is not good at assembling a football team 

CJ usomah was also terrible 

They used CJ as a blocker.  Did you see the video of Ruckert blocking in Miami?  He looked great, why wasn't he used in this role?  Do we really have a good read on CJ or Conklin ... let alone Ruckert?

Listen, Joe's 1st draft was as BAD as it gets and he deserves blame for overpaying for Tomlinson when we already had our Left Guard ... Punter has also been a disaster.    

But for all the Joe haters out there, what would you have done at QB?

1. Stick with Sam?

2. Draft Mac Jones or others not named Justin Fields?

3. Draft Justin Fields after what he looked like in the National Championship game?  If he becomes a true franchise QB, this will be the big MISS.  Even as an average starter, it's a big enough miss ... but at least it's a miss you can recover 

4. Wait a year when the QB crop was significantly weaker?  

5. Trade for a veteran or FQB like Indy, Denver, Cleveland did?

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Playing next to Trent Williams and having great coaching helps.

Trent Williams was the one who credited Tomlinson for helping him out in SF, not the other way around.

Before they traded for Williams he was plenty solid with Joe Staley's backup half the season in 2019 when they last went to the SB (going 7-1 with somebody named Justin Skule starting at LT), largely behind their strong OL clearing the path for a RBBC of nobodies to gain 2300 yards on the ground, on top of keeping fragile Jimmy on the field.

Then he comes here and lays an egg. He was available every week, missing 2 snaps vs Chicago and that's it: on the field for 1112 of 1114 offensive snaps (plus every snap on specials for FGs and such). So much for the idea that the best ability is availability. Clever-sounding phrase, but it's not true. I'd rather have a guy who was great for a dozen games than a starter who was this unreliable on the field for all 17 (at a hefty pricetag for a guard).

[Sonny Werblin]

3 minutes ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

Start Becton at LT and Mitchell at RT

My hope is that the Jets select a LT in the first round and a C in the second (go full Brick and Nick). Than Becton and Mitchell can compete for RT. Frankly, I do not think Mitchell played as well as people on this board imagine. Right now, I think he is a great first OT off the bench in case of an injury, but not a high end starter. If healthy Becton has already showed he can be dominant, especially in the run game. Mitchell's ceiling is nowhere near Becton's.

[Sonny Werblin]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Trent Williams was the one who credited Tomlinson for helping him out in SF, not the other way around.

Before they traded for Williams he was plenty solid with Joe Staley's backup half the season in 2019 when they last went to the SB (going 7-1 with somebody named Justin Skule starting at LT), largely behind their strong OL clearing the path for a RBBC of nobodies to gain 2300 yards on the ground, on top of keeping fragile Jimmy on the field.

Then he comes here and lays an egg. He was available every week, missing 2 snaps vs Chicago and that's it: on the field for 1112 of 1114 offensive snaps (plus every snap on specials for FGs and such). So much for the idea that the best ability is availability. Clever-sounding phrase, but it's not true. I'd rather have a guy who was great for a dozen games than a starter who was this unreliable on the field for all 17 (at a hefty pricetag for a guard).

What's weird is his play was so bad that it was almost like it was intentional. How do you go from all-pro to whiffing on multiple blocks per-game? Is it possible that it is the O-line coach or scheme somehow (even though he came from a similar scheme in Frisco I don't think anyone is mistaking the Jets O for the Niners O).

[Saul Goodman]

11 minutes ago, Larz said:

No mystery. He went full Wilkerson 

Never go full Wilk 

[Biggs]

5 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

They used CJ as a blocker.  Did you see the video of Ruckert blocking in Miami?  He looked great, why wasn't he used in this role.  Do we really have a good read on CJ or Conklin?

Listen, Joe's 1st draft was as BAD as it gets and he deserves blame for overpaying for Tomlinson when we already had our Left Guard.  

But for all the Joe haters out there, what would you have done at QB?

1. Stick with Sam

2. Draft Mac Jones or others not named Justin Fields

3. Draft Justin Fields after what he looked like in the National Championship game?  If he becomes a true franchise QB, this will be the big MISS.  Even as an average starter, it's a big enough miss ... but at least it's a miss you can recover from 

4. Wait a year when the QB crop was significantly weaker

5. Trade for a veteran or FQB like Indy, Denver, Cleveland 

Traded Sam, traded our second pick to SF. Taken either Slater or Parsons at 12.  Taken Humphrey with our 2 from SF.  Taken Davis Mills in the second.  Mills had as much upside as Zach and had great college coaching.   Probably still get Moore who looks like a bust.  

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

5 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Traded Sam, traded our second pick to SF. Taken either Slater or Parsons at 12.  Taken Humphrey with our 2 from SF.  Taken Davis Mills in the second.  Mills had as much upside as Zach and had great college coaching.   Probably still get Moore who looks like a bust.  

But where is the franchise QB we all want and most of us believe is critical to long term success?  Mills isn't that guy, Mac Jones isn't that guy, Trey Lance and the present version of Justin Fields aren't that guy.

I'm actually with you.  I believe it was still a big enough failure because I would take a quality starter or trade the pick if a FQB wasn't available.  That said, it's not an unrecoverable miss.  It's just not, despite what some on here say it is.  The same people that say you keep trying to draft a franchise QB until you get it right.  Zach had that upside even is you saw the bust potential.   JD swung and missed but that doesn't mean his philosophy was wrong.   

[Jetsfan80]

30 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

But for all the Joe haters out there, what would you have done at QB?

Tank properly in 2020.  It was sitting right there for us.

Barring that, I'd have traded down AND still traded Darnold.  Grab Minshew as a bridge QB.  Or stayed put and taken Fields at 2. 

These were all things I and others wanted to see happen at the time so this isn't just hindsight talking, either.

 

@jgb

[BigB]

just awful...human turnstile

[BigB]

just awful...human turnstile

[OilfieldJet]

4 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

 

RT: Becton/Mitchell 

Just stop.

[Alka]

4 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I think age and playing next to a rotation of JAGs at LT (instead of Trent Williams) was probably a factor. Probably the most disappointing FA signing of the Douglas era.

I agree with you about him being a huge disappointment, but age should not be a factor.  The guy was 30 years old!  He played next to a guy at left tackle in Duane Brown who was 38 years old on a bum shoulder, and he balled out.  Age is not a good excuse when the guy standing next to you is 8 years older than you, and playing at a very high level.

[OilfieldJet]

1 hour ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

Start Becton at LT and Mitchell at RT

This is seriously Twilight Zone stuff. Amazing. Why not start Anthony Munoz? He's only 64.

[Facts]

4 hours ago, chirorob said:

That was a huge disappointment.

I was 100% on board with the signing, I can not think of any way to fault JD on that one.  He knew the system, was only 30, it should have worked.

He just, didn't show up.  At all.

You should absolutely blame JD.

It’s literally his JOB to see these types of things coming. 

[varjet]

If Tomlinson cannot play next year it is a disaster and a huge black mark on JD.  It is really the reason why NFL teams should accumulate as many draft picks as possible and avoid second contracts.  

The Jets have lost their rookie FQB window.  They now have to pay for a QB.  If Tomlinson can’t be moved, that puts several other players under the gun.  As

[#27TheDominator]

39 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Tank properly in 2020.  It was sitting right there for us.

Barring that, I'd have traded down AND still traded Darnold.  Grab Minshew as a bridge QB.  Or stayed put and taken Fields at 2. 

These were all things I and others wanted to see happen at the time so this isn't just hindsight talking, either.

 

@jgb

I would definitely have traded down looking at that haul.  They'd still have been sitting at 12 and probably could have easily traded back up for Fields.  I wouldn't have even done that.  I would have picked some actual developmental prospect.  I can't remember who I liked in 2021.  I liked Lance because he was a freak, but 2 or 3 was awful high for my blood.  Some people were trying to sell Trask, but I wasn't buying.  In 2022 I wanted Ridder, but who knows what they would have had to do to get him with all the monkeying trades they made.  The Niners 3rd (Tindall) they sent the Dolphins and the 3rd we got back in the Johnson (Ruckert) deal were way too late.

[NYJCAP2]

1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I normally use Sportrac and up until a few days ago they were reflecting a $4.6 million cap hit for a post 6/1 cut. They have since changed it. So, it is pretty safe to say they had it wrong before. Looks like Laken will be a Jet in 2023. I hope he gets himself straight.

I mentioned this in another thread. Perhaps they ask him to lose a little weight and maybe he becomes a little quicker on his feet?

[Sonny Werblin]

16 minutes ago, NYJCAP2 said:

I mentioned this in another thread. Perhaps they ask him to lose a little weight and maybe he becomes a little quicker on his feet?

IDK. He was almost intentionally bad this season. I mean it was like he was trying to miss blocks. I think the best case scenario is he was injured but knew the Jets could not afford to lose another lineman and hid his injury form the team or that he has some personal dilemma that was affecting his concentration.  

[Biggs]

1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

But where is the franchise QB we all want and most of us believe is critical to long term success?  Mills isn't that guy, Mac Jones isn't that guy, Trey Lance and the present version of Justin Fields aren't that guy.

I'm actually with you.  I believe it was still a big enough failure because I would take a quality starter or trade the pick if a FQB wasn't available.  That said, it's not an unrecoverable miss.  It's just not, despite what some on here say it is.  The same people that say you keep trying to draft a franchise QB until you get it right.  Zach had that upside even is you saw the bust potential.   JD swung and missed but that doesn't mean his philosophy was wrong.   

Mills as a 2nd round pick in a multiple round draft had as much upside as Zach did as a developmental QB.  Great arm, athletic, bigger and just as mobil.  He went where Zach should have gone in the third round.   He's actually shown more ability to be an NFL starter than Zach has. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Tank properly in 2020.  It was sitting right there for us.

Barring that, I'd have traded down AND still traded Darnold.  Grab Minshew as a bridge QB.  Or stayed put and taken Fields at 2. 

These were all things I and others wanted to see happen at the time so this isn't just hindsight talking, either.

 

@jgb

All good points.  I too wish we would have tanked.  But the players got in the way.  

Given we couldn't get Trevor Lawrence, option 2 or 3 still wouldn't have gotten us an elite franchise QB, unless you took Fields and he developed into one.  Still a question mark.  For now, he's an average starter (elite runner, 'developing passer').

In retrospect, I like the trade down idea.  Still grab a decent starter in Minshew plus add valuable picks that maybe you use to acquire an elite franchise QB in the future.  Joe reached for the home run at a draft position we might not have gotten to again under his watch.  Unless you have the assets to move up in the draft.  

But remember that the next QB class was not great and the cost of acquiring an elite franchise QB via the trade market is extremely high = 3 first round picks plus an annual contract north of $35M per year.  

Key question for you:  Do you believe the Jets need an elite franchise QB?  If not, then the trade down at the very least allows you to acquire premium talent at other premium positions.  

My own views have changed:  I personally don't believe the Jets need an elite franchise QB (top 7 or so).  The trade cost is prohibitive.  Unless one you believe in falls to you in the draft.  And you simply can't bank on that happening in future years when you expect your team to make progress.  Not many can't miss prospects.  

At the time, I agreed with Joe's philosophy of shooting for an elite prospect.

In retrospect and with my changing views, I would have sat Zach for a year or 2 and picked up a Minshew OR gone with your ideas.

 

  

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

39 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Mills as a 2nd round pick in a multiple round draft had as much upside as Zach did as a developmental QB.  Great arm, athletic, bigger and just as mobil.  He went where Zach should have gone in the third round.   He's actually shown more ability to be an NFL starter than Zach has. 

Well, he clearly has shown more than Zach as an NFL starter, no disagreement there.

BUT, all 32 GMs would likely disagree with your assessment that his upside was equal to Zach's and that's exactly why he didn't sniff round 1 and the 49ers wanted to trade up for Zach's potential.

[SickJetFan]

5 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

All good points.  I too wish we would have tanked.  But the players got in the way.  

Given we couldn't get Trevor Lawrence, option 2 or 3 still wouldn't have gotten us an elite franchise QB, unless you took Fields and he developed into one.  Still a question mark.  For now, he's an average starter (elite runner, 'developing passer').

In retrospect, I like the trade down idea.  Still grab a decent starter in Minshew plus add valuable picks that maybe you use to acquire an elite franchise QB in the future.  Joe reached for the home run at a draft position we might not have gotten to again under his watch.  Unless you have the assets to move up in the draft.  

But remember that the next QB class was not great and the cost of acquiring an elite franchise QB via the trade market is extremely high = 3 first round picks plus an annual contract north of $35M per year.  

Key question for you:  Do you believe the Jets need an elite franchise QB?  If not, then the trade down at the very least allows you to acquire premium talent at other premium positions.  

My own views have changed:  I personally don't believe the Jets need an elite franchise QB (top 7 or so).  The trade cost is prohibitive.  Unless one you believe in falls to you in the draft.  And you simply can't bank on that happening in future years when you expect your team to make progress.  Not many can't miss prospects.  

At the time, I agreed with Joe's philosophy of shooting for an elite prospect.

In retrospect and with my changing views, I would have sat Zach for a year or 2 and picked up a Minshew OR gone with your ideas.

 

  

 

if only the Jets had won MORE games instead of less 49ers may have taken Zach off board.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

My hope is that the Jets select a LT in the first round and a C in the second (go full Brick and Nick). Than Becton and Mitchell can compete for RT. Frankly, I do not think Mitchell played as well as people on this board imagine. Right now, I think he is a great first OT off the bench in case of an injury, but not a high end starter. If healthy Becton has already showed he can be dominant, especially in the run game. Mitchell's ceiling is nowhere near Becton's.

They can't count on Becton as a starting LT, completely agree.

If Brown doesn't come back or they think he's done even with a healthy shoulder, they will have no choice than to go LT in round 1.  

If they believe a healthy Brown is a quality starter as a 1 year bridge, then I personally believe another outside WR is the better route to go in round 1.  The Jets simply cannot count on Corey Davis and Elijah Moore is nothing more than a high upside slot with a lot to prove.  
The FA cost of a WR or LT is not within the Jets means.  The trade cost is even higher.  It needs to be the draft and these are the premium positions outside QB we still haven't filled.  

Round 2 should be an elite Center, Guard, Linebacker, or Free Safety prospect.  CJ cannot return at $21.5M cap.  We are going to need the funds to get a vet QB.  I cannot image Woody allowing this leadership team to draft another QB round 1.  

Then use free agency to fill out the remaining holes at Center, Guard, Linebacker, or Free Safety.  I will say I like what I see out of Tony Adams; you might have him compete with a mid round free safety for the starting spot.  

[Biggs]

14 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Well, he clearly has shown more than Zach as an NFL starter, no disagreement there.

BUT, all 32 GMs would likely disagree with your assessment that his upside was equal to Zach's and that's exactly why he didn't sniff round 1 and the 49ers wanted to trade up for Zach's potential.

If they did I’m sure Joe would swap him for Lance straight up.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

7 minutes ago, Biggs said:

If they did I’m sure Joe would swap him for Lance straight up.

That was the prevailing theory at the time.  That the 49ers wanted to trade up for Zach.  It just goes to show you a couple things.

1. Joe believed the Jets needed an elite qb, aka a franchise QB

2. He believe Zach had that upside and didn't want to risk losing him.  A potential franchise QB was worth more than additional picks and Trey Lance or Justin Fields

In retrospect, Zach is a bust unless he does a complete 180 we haven't seen in NFL history.

#1 is debatable.  They don't come around often and Joe had 1 shot without the surefire Mannings, Lucks or eveN Lawrence's that some teams are fortunate to fall into.  

Good debate by the way.  This is why I come to the site.

[rangerous]

Maybe Tomlinson is the oline equivalent of wilky? He got what should be his final big contract and just didn’t play as hard as he should have. It didn’t help that the jets didn’t have anyone to replace him. And it could also be he didn’t have really good players next to him.  Remember fant looked great when was next to avt. So the jets will have to eat his contract for next season. He’ll be an overpriced back up.