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Quarterback Contracts: What might be reasonable for Carr?

OtherwiseHappyinLife

By OtherwiseHappyinLife
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OtherwiseHappyinLife

OtherwiseHappyinLife

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Table below.  

(The 2023 salary cap might be a bit north of $220M)  

Carr's Total QBR Rating was 10th best (2019), 11th best (2020), 14th best (2021), 14th best (2022).

His OC in 2019-2021 was Greg Olson, when Carr had the best performance run of this career.

QB contracts have gotten a bit out of hand and no QB has won the SB making up more than 12% of his team's cap.  Top paid guys like Rodgers, Wilson & Murray came no where near living up to their bloated pay in 2022. 

Mahomes is the gold standard who contributes 4 points per game above an average qb.  Allen is #2 at roughly 3 incremental points per game.  Then Hurts at 2.25 incremental points.  The remaining above average qbs fall in the .5 to 1.5 incremental point range.  

Based on trending performance, it would seem like Carr should on average be paid closer to 14th or 15th.  Factoring in some better performers who are still on their rookie contracts (Burrow, Tua, Jones, Hurts..), market pay would be in the $35M range (close to Cousins & Goff).  

His 2023 cap hit is $35M, jumping to $43M in 2024 and 2025.  If cut in 2024, the dead cap hit is a very manageable $3.75M.  If cut in 2025, the dead cap hit is $1.875M.  

My take-aways

Carr's current contract is very reasonable to trade for if you want him for a year.  The dead cap hit in 2024 is extremely manageable. 

If you are looking for a longer term investment (if convinced Wilson isn't the guy ... ever), 2024 & 2025 looks bloated.  You can still trade for him but it would be wise to demand a restructuring down to the neighborhood of $35M per year.  I can imagine a team giving UP to a first round pick for him but most will be cautious about giving up too much because of the Wilson, Wentz, Watson trades.  I can even imagine the QB market slowing up a bit.  Just look at the top of that chart and the holes those teams are in, excluding the Chiefs & Bills.  Caution on the Indy & Commanders approach as well due to the disastrous pay / performance of Ryan & Wentz.

Looking at this chart and recognizing differences between Carr and the ancient Ryan and enigma Wentz, I believe the Jets hire his old OC and then trade a 2nd for Carr on a restructured deal.  The 2 compliment each other well and can add positive points incremental to what an average QB can contribute.       

 

 

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Barry McCockinner

Barry McCockinner

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The Jets failed at the cheap rookie QB contract thing. Now they have to pay the piper. I see a lot of people saying they don't want to pay a QB 30+ million a year but that's the floor price you pay for a good QB today with the exception being 97 year old Brady. Just look at the chart in the OP.

You either pay the price for a good QB or you go for a guy you hope gets better but hasn't proven it yet. 

If you want the good QB, now you just have to accept the cap hit and sort through which warts are most acceptable given the current makeup of the Jets.

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OtherwiseHappyinLife

OtherwiseHappyinLife

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10 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

The Jets failed at the cheap rookie QB contract thing. Now they have to pay the piper. I see a lot of people saying they don't want to pay a QB 30+ million a year but that's the floor price you pay for a good QB today with the exception being 97 year old Brady.

You either pay the price for a good QB or you go for a guy you hope gets better but hasn't proven it yet. 

If you want the good QB, now you just have to accept the cap hit and sort through which warts are most acceptable given the current makeup of the Jets.

That’s right and that’s why we’ll need to unload the following:

1. Lawson replaced by Johnson/Clemons

2. Davis replaced via FA or draft

3. Tomlinson with AVT moving back to LG and picking up starting RG via FA or draft (maybe re-sign Herbig)

4. CJ — maybe a cut in salary or just cut.  Would be nice to know what we had in Sherwood …. smh

5. Berrios - shouldn’t be hard to replace


Cutting Lawson and Davis saves us $25M.  Cutting Tomlinson post June 1 saves us $13M.  Addition by subtraction as well.

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OtherwiseHappyinLife

OtherwiseHappyinLife

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7 minutes ago, peebag said:

Why would Carr even consider the Jets?  It's clusterfvck of an orginization and they'll be offers from other teams.

He would be sold that he is that final piece on a team that has a multi year window to make some noise.

A top 5 Defense, a #1 WR, a stud RB, a stud in Vera Tucker and commitment that they upgrade OLine & WR in the off-season.

He might be interested in reuniting with the OC he’s had the most success with.

I don’t know.  There are a few.  I’m so glad some of you aren’t selling the opportunity ;)

 

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SickJetFan

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

He would be sold that he is that final piece on a team that has a multi year window to make some noise.

A top 5 Defense, a #1 WR, a stud RB, a stud in Vera Tucker and commitment that they upgrade OLine & WR in the off-season.

He might be interested in reuniting with the OC he’s had the most success with.

I don’t know.  There are a few.  I’m so glad some of you aren’t selling the opportunity ;)

 

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hawk

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3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

The Jets failed at the cheap rookie QB contract thing. Now they have to pay the piper. I see a lot of people saying they don't want to pay a QB 30+ million a year but that's the floor price you pay for a good QB today with the exception being 97 year old Brady. Just look at the chart in the OP.

You either pay the price for a good QB or you go for a guy you hope gets better but hasn't proven it yet. 

If you want the good QB, now you just have to accept the cap hit and sort through which warts are most acceptable given the current makeup of the Jets.

No one is trading for $35 Million Derek Carr, especially with the Raiders over the barrel.  His 2023 + $7.5 million of 2024 become fully guaranteed in February.  You may see a trade with a restructure but would Carr be willing with the no trade clause I don't see it.  Hit the open market and see what happens.

I am not sure how they could trade him if his contract guarantee does hit, since you can't trade him until March Officially.

Carr will be a free agent, unless there is some loop hole in the contract for trades.

 

 

 

 

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Barry McCockinner

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1 minute ago, hawk said:

No one is trading for $35 Million Derek Carr, especially with the Raiders over the barrel.  His 2023 + $7.5 million of 2024 become fully guaranteed in February.  You may see a trade with a restructure but would Carr be willing with the no trade clause I don't see it.  Hit the open market and see what happens.

I am not sure how they could trade him if his contract guarantee does hit, since you can't trade him until March Officially.

Carr will be a free agent, unless there is some loop hole in the contract for trades.

 

 

 

 

What do you think Carr gets paid in FA? 

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hawk

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4 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

What do you think Carr gets paid in FA? 

That's part of my point would you lift your no trade clause?  

Carr is in the driver seat.

From a team perspective, trading for him is intriguing without the guarantees kicking in.

I like Carr and would love him in New York.  I don't see a trade coming.

I'm not convinced he is a $30 + Million Guy.  

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Untouchable

Untouchable

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1 minute ago, hawk said:

No one is trading for $35 Million Derek Carr, especially with the Raiders over the barrel.  His 2023 + $7.5 million of 2024 become fully guaranteed in February.  You may see a trade with a restructure but would Carr be willing with the no trade clause I don't see it.  Hit the open market and see what happens.

I am not sure how they could trade him if his contract guarantee does hit, since you can't trade him until March Officially.

Carr will be a free agent, unless there is some loop hole in the contract for trades.

 

 

 

 

People are kidding themselves if they think Carr isn’t getting at least $35 million a year on the open market.

The guy has been universally considered a Top 12-15 QB for a decade now.

The elite dudes are making $50+ million a season at this point with the cap steadily rising for the foreseeable future.

Someones going to give him that money. And unless Brady or Rodgers are headed here, I hope it’s us.

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Hal N of Provo

Hal N of Provo

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6 minutes ago, hawk said:

No one is trading for $35 Million Derek Carr, especially with the Raiders over the barrel.  His 2023 + $7.5 million of 2024 become fully guaranteed in February.  You may see a trade with a restructure but would Carr be willing with the no trade clause I don't see it.  Hit the open market and see what happens.

I am not sure how they could trade him if his contract guarantee does hit, since you can't trade him until March Officially.

Carr will be a free agent, unless there is some loop hole in the contract for trades.

 

 

 

 

Good catch.   That thing is designed to get him cut even if he wants to ok a trade.  

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hawk

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5 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I don't know if he will but the raiders actively shopping him and his public good bye on the same day indicates coordination. 

I think he knows he is done in LV.  Why wouldn't they shop him?  I am shopping the George Washington Bridge, why not?

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OtherwiseHappyinLife

OtherwiseHappyinLife

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8 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Carr is the best target this off-season and he has a no trade clause.  He’s going to get overpaid.

If there is a trade he’s getting a new deal.  

Why?  He is being paid $43M each of the next 2 years.  That’s near the top of the league.

I used to consult businesses on pay packages.  This is what I can imagine:

1. 2024 and maybe 2025 will likely have more guarantees built in

2. The Jets provide some upside incentives to make up for a reduction in salary.  So he can get up to $43M IF he hits top 10 performance metrics

 

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hawk

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9 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

People are kidding themselves if they think Carr isn’t getting at least $35 million a year on the open market.

The guy has been universally considered a Top 12-15 QB for a decade now.

The elite dudes are making $50+ million a season at this point with the cap steadily rising for the foreseeable future.

Someones going to give him that money. And unless Brady or Rodgers are headed here, I hope it’s us.

Maybe he gets a $35 Million per year deal over 5 or 6 years.  Doesn't mean that is year one or 2.  He is making $35 Million year one if you trade for him without a restructure.

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BCJet

BCJet

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I agree that he is going to get more then people think, just because Josh McDaniels and the only owner worse then ours thinks he sux doesnt mean he does.

None of his salaries are currently guaranteed and his age does matter so forget the $43 million number per season.  I think a deal more like Tannenhill signed (he signed 4 years $118) - 5 years $130 million with $60 guaranteed and the ability to void the 5th year.  He makes around $80 over the first 4 years of his 31-35 seasons which isnt terrible by any means and if he plays great gets that 5th year.  

Also, there is minimal draft compensation going to the Raiders.  A 3rd and a 5th, something like that. It would be great to unload zach in this scenario and keep MW as the backup, but no one wants Zach at his salary number.

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