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Jets 2023 projected cap space: -$2.4 million LFG!!


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Just now, Lith said:

Free up about $37M by releasing Corey Davis, Carl Lawson, Braxton Berrios and Jordan Whitehead.

More like 5 after you have to pay the jet  tax to replace them. Berrios’ deal is about the only one that’s really out of line with going rates. 

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I'm confused, weren't we at like $15M free just a week ago?  Did some bonuses go into effect? 

 

Either way, yeah this is just another reason why I think the top QB pipedreams are just that - pipedreams.  Even with all the cuts:  Lawson, Davis, Berrios, Mosley restructure, maybe Brown cut or retirement (don't see Tomlinson going anywhere.  $14M dead cap only to save $3M?  I'm sure they'd rather keep him for another year and hope he's at least a decent backup).  All this sh*t is probably just enough to pay Quinnen, re-sign the handful of guys we actually want to keep(Huff, McGovern, Rankins, Kwon, Herbig, Zuerlein, etc) plus our draft picks, and then a solid OL signing.  Maybe a decently priced WR and FS, depending on what the draft plan is.  

 

But yeah, it's gonna be tight.  Get through this year and things get easier, assuming we don't lock ourselves into more dumb contracts.  Bunch of money off the books plus JFM and Tomlinson will probably be easy cap casualties at that point.  Both veteran TE's become cut options at that point.  Maybe even Zach as well.  If we can keep improving the team around the QB position by this point, I think we'll be in a position to spend big in 2024.  Bring in a short term upgrade and look to solve that spot long term next year(assuming Zach doesn't work a miracle).  

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29 minutes ago, Larz said:

More like 5 after you have to pay the jet  tax to replace them. Berrios’ deal is about the only one that’s really out of line with going rates. 

Don't think they will have the luxury of repalcing Lawson.  Clemens and JJ may need to take his snaps. 

Davis gave us very little production -- we are not going to sign a potential 1 or 2.  But you are right, we are going to need to add a vet ot 2 to the WR room.  This is where whiffing on Mims and potentially Moore really hurts.

I think it will be a very quiet first wave of FA for us.

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2 minutes ago, Lith said:

Don't think they will have the luxury of repalcing Lawson.  Clemens and JJ may need to take his snaps. 

Davis gave us very little production -- we are not going to sign a potential 1 or 2.  But you are right, we are going to need to add a vet ot 2 to the WR room.  This is where whiffing on Mims and potentially Moore really hurts.

I think it will be a very quiet first wave of FA for us.

Mims and Moore will show out with an OC with a clue

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19 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I'm confused, weren't we at like $15M free just a week ago?  Did some bonuses go into effect? 

 

Either way, yeah this is just another reason why I think the top QB pipedreams are just that - pipedreams.  Even with all the cuts:  Lawson, Davis, Berrios, Mosley restructure, maybe Brown cut or retirement (don't see Tomlinson going anywhere.  $14M dead cap only to save $3M?  I'm sure they'd rather keep him for another year and hope he's at least a decent backup).  All this sh*t is probably just enough to pay Quinnen, re-sign the handful of guys we actually want to keep(Huff, McGovern, Rankins, Kwon, Herbig, Zuerlein, etc) plus our draft picks, and then a solid OL signing.  Maybe a decently priced WR and FS, depending on what the draft plan is.  

 

But yeah, it's gonna be tight.  Get through this year and things get easier, assuming we don't lock ourselves into more dumb contracts.  Bunch of money off the books plus JFM and Tomlinson will probably be easy cap casualties at that point.  Both veteran TE's become cut options at that point.  Maybe even Zach as well.  If we can keep improving the team around the QB position by this point, I think we'll be in a position to spend big in 2024.  Bring in a short term upgrade and look to solve that spot long term next year(assuming Zach doesn't work a miracle).  

exactly why you dont albatross yourself with Quinnen contract year Williams.

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If the Jets were able to sign a QB for 3+ years, it could be worth the hit to lock him up and then cut players who do not really fit for the long term.

But I am not seeing 2023 as being a season where the Jets can make an impact, if signing a top QB means unloading good players who are just second contract paid.  

The other alternative is to do some cap trimming, sign and draft OL and defense, and gather up some low priced QBs (Zach, White, e.g. Brissett) and make a go of it. 

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10 minutes ago, Lith said:

Don't think they will have the luxury of repalcing Lawson.  Clemens and JJ may need to take his snaps. 

Davis gave us very little production -- we are not going to sign a potential 1 or 2.  But you are right, we are going to need to add a vet ot 2 to the WR room.  This is where whiffing on Mims and potentially Moore really hurts.

I think it will be a very quiet first wave of FA for us.

More snaps for JJ is a good thing

Maybe they can restructure Lawson's deal

Can't wait for Davis to be dropping passes for another team

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2 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

 

Aright Cap experts....wtf do we do here? 

The cap is going to go up, have read the Jets will have around $15M after the increase.  We'll need around $8M for our  rookie pool, leaving us around $7M to work with -- near the bottom of the league

Shopping List below (FA or Trade).  Assuming for now that Jets go LT in round 1, Center in round 2 and LB in round 3.   

1. QB.  Derek Carr will cost $33M in 2023 cap dollars

2. Edge.  Re-signing Bryce Huff will cost $5.5M (1st round restricted tender; $1.5M more than 2nd round tender)

3. DT.  Re-signing Sheldon Rankins will cost roughly $7M per year

4. LB.  Re-signing Quincy Williams will cost roughly $6M per year

5. RG.  Sign starter.  Spotrac has the better available at roughly $10M per year

6. FS.  Signing quality starter will cost roughly $7M per year.  Alternatively, might give Tony Adams a chance to start (competing w/ mid round draft)

7. IOL Depth.  Re-signing Herbig as top back-up will cost roughly $3M per year

8. Zuerlein.  Re-signing will cost roughly $3M per year

9. Back-up QB.  Cost roughly $4M per year

10. Other Depth.  Use remaining draft + undrafted free agency

TOTAL Shopping List = $78.5M.  Minus $7M available after rookie salary cap = $71.5M.  Let's assume Jets can push higher dollar values to future years on multi-year contracts, reducing 2023 cap by another $10M.

This means we need to free up around $61.5M If Duane Brown decided to retire, then we automatically get back $5M (salary minus bonus acceleration).  Let's not assume this for new.

Here's where we can save money.  

1. Cut Carl Lawson = $15M

2. Cut Corey Davis = $10M (but we then create a need at WR)

4. Cut Laken Tomlinson post June 1 = $13.5M

5. Cut CJ Mosley post June 1 = $14M

6. Cut Braxton Berrios = $5M

7. Cut Ashtyn Davis = $2.75M

8. Cut Denzel Mims = $1.4M

9. Cut Bryce Hall = $1M  

10. Cut Braden Mann = $2.75M

Total = $65M, more than paying for our shopping list.  Ideally, we find a way to restructure Corey Davis and keep him because we aren't signing a capable replacement for $3.5M unless we draft a WR round 1 and go with a healthy Duane Brown at LT and Becton or Mitchell at RT.  

 

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Wait there are people here who don't want to back up the truck for Quinnen? JFC...

I don't know why it was reported as ~$15mm and now its negative - so thats weird. However, the Jets are in fine cap shape. 

See this: 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-evaluating-which-nfl-teams-are-best-set-up-for-the-2023-offseason

or this: 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

We're roughly middle of the pack. We have obvious candidates to cut/restructure in Davis, Lawson, Berrios, and CJ. Outside of rookies no one on this team really has a large deal w/ guaranteed money after 2023 so we aren't stuck w/ a Trumaine Johnson/CJ Mosley deal where we just need to eat a brutal contract. Even guys like Laken Tomlinson who was signed last year can be cut for only a $4mm dead cap hit and it would free up $13mm. 

We can still pay a good contract to someone like Carr or Jimmy G and add some pieces around them in FA - in addition to the draft. We just don't have the same space as the past few years b/c we actually have a decent roster. We just have the worst QB situation in the league and I'm fine losing 1-2 guys who helped this year - like a CJ or Lawson in exchange for competent QB play. 

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9 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

The cap is going to go up, have read the Jets will have around $15M after the increase.  We'll need around $8M for our  rookie pool, leaving us around $7M to work with -- near the bottom of the league

Shopping List below (FA or Trade).  Assuming for now that Jets go LT in round 1, Center in round 2 and LB in round 3.   

1. QB.  Derek Carr will cost $33M in 2023 cap dollars

2. Edge.  Re-signing Bryce Huff will cost $5.5M (1st round restricted tender; $1.5M more than 2nd round tender)

3. DT.  Re-signing Sheldon Rankins will cost roughly $7M per year

4. LB.  Re-signing Quincy Williams will cost roughly $6M per year

5. RG.  Sign starter.  Spotrac has the better available at roughly $10M per year

6. FS.  Signing quality starter will cost roughly $7M per year.  Alternatively, might give Tony Adams a chance to start (competing w/ mid round draft)

7. IOL Depth.  Re-signing Herbig as top back-up will cost roughly $3M per year

8. Zuerlein.  Re-signing will cost roughly $3M per year

9. Back-up QB.  Cost roughly $4M per year

10. Other Depth.  Use remaining draft + undrafted free agency

TOTAL Shopping List = $78.5M.  Minus $7M available after rookie salary cap = $71.5M.  Let's assume Jets can push higher dollar values to future years on multi-year contracts, reducing 2023 cap by another $10M.

This means we need to free up around $61.5M If Duane Brown decided to retire, then we automatically get back $5M (salary minus bonus acceleration).  Let's not assume this for new.

Here's where we can save money.  

1. Cut Carl Lawson = $15M

2. Cut Corey Davis = $10M (but we then create a need at WR)

4. Cut Laken Tomlinson post June 1 = $13.5M

5. Cut CJ Mosley post June 1 = $14M

6. Cut Braxton Berrios = $5M

7. Cut Ashtyn Davis = $2.75M

8. Cut Denzel Mims = $1.4M

9. Cut Bryce Hall = $1M  

10. Cut Braden Mann = $2.75M

Total = $65M, more than paying for our shopping list.  Ideally, we find a way to restructure Corey Davis and keep him because we aren't signing a capable replacement for $3.5M unless we draft a WR round 1 and go with a healthy Duane Brown at LT and Becton or Mitchell at RT.  

 

Agree w/ all of this except I don't think we can cut Laken Tomlinson this year and save that much - hope I'm wrong. Either way - the Jets are fine from a cap perspective. 

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1 hour ago, bonkertons said:

I'm confused, weren't we at like $15M free just a week ago?  Did some bonuses go into effect? 

If I read it correctly, Overthecap changed the way they're calculating effective cap space. They now count the estimated rookie class salaries, plus if there's less than 51 players currently signed they add those in at the league minimum salary. Gives a clearer picture of how much is actually there to work with for FAs, as opposed to their earlier figure which you'd have to make note that while it says $15M in space you need x dollars for rookies and y dollars to fill out the roster.

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7 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

If I read it correctly, Overthecap changed the way they're calculating effective cap space. They now count the estimated rookie class salaries, plus if there's less than 51 players currently signed they add those in at the league minimum salary. Gives a clearer picture of how much is actually there to work with for FAs, as opposed to their earlier figure which you'd have to make note that while it says $15M in space you need x dollars for rookies and y dollars to fill out the roster.

 

Oh ok that actually makes this better then.  Basically you can add in the rookies for free essentially, as well as a few of our own re-signings.  In that case we're in better shape than this leads on.  

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