OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Anyone I’m missing? Upper Tier QBs: Watson (tbd but might be a disaster), R Wilson (miss), Brady (hit), Stafford (hit) Middle Tier QBs: Cousins (hit), Jimmy G (hit when healthy), Goff (hit), Tannenhill (hit), Mayfield (miss), Wentz (mostly miss), Rivers (1 yr hit), Ryan (miss) Lower Tier QBs: Darnold (miss), Rosen (miss), Winston (miss), Mariota (miss) (I wouldn’t know how to categorize Brissett & Geno, guys not brought in to start long term but who have exceeded / far exceeded expectations) ————————————————————————- The hit rate is much bigger than I thought before writing it down. The top tier comes with BIG risk and can set franchises back for a long time but the Bucs and Rams each won Super Bowls. The 2023 Jets should be shopping in that middle tier with Carr, Jimmy G and maybe Tannenhill (nearly 3 TD 1 Int ratio w/ Titans) available. The middle tier has a 5/8 hit rate over the last few years— Mayfield, Wentz and the ancient Matt Ryan as the exceptions. The bottom tier, which Mayfield also might have fit into after his last year with the Browns, has pretty much been the former first round bust revival tour. This is where Zach will fit in for teams looking to trade. Buyer beware.. Stripping out QB needy teams drafting one, the Jets should have a good chance landing a quality starter— competing with the Titans, Commanders, Saints, and Bucs for a veteran while the Raiders try to lure Brady and the Falcons, Colts, Houston and others draft one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomebodytoAnybody47 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said: Anyone I’m missing? Upper Tier QBs: Watson (tbd but might be a disaster), R Wilson (miss), Brady (hit), Stafford (hit) Middle Tier QBs: Cousins (hit), Jimmy G (hit when healthy), Goff (hit), Tannenhill (hit), Mayfield (miss), Wentz (mostly miss), Rivers (1 yr hit), Ryan (miss) Lower Tier QBs: Darnold (miss), Rosen (miss), Winston (miss), Mariota (miss) (I wouldn’t know how to categorize Brissett & Geno, guys not brought in to start long term but who have exceeded / far exceeded expectations) ————————————————————————- The hit rate is much bigger than I thought before writing it down. The top tier comes with BIG risk and can set franchises back for a long time but the Bucs and Rams each won Super Bowls. The 2023 Jets should be shopping in that middle tier with Carr, Jimmy G and maybe Tannenhill (nearly 3 TD 1 Int ratio w/ Titans) available. The middle tier has a 5/8 hit rate over the last few years— Mayfield, Wentz and the ancient Matt Ryan as the exceptions. The bottom tier, which Mayfield also might have fit into after his last year with the Browns, has pretty much been the former first round bust revival tour. This is where Zach will fit in for teams looking to trade. Buyer beware.. Stripping out QB needy teams drafting one, the Jets should have a good chance landing a quality starter— competing with the Titans, Commanders, Saints, and Bucs for a veteran while the Raiders try to lure Brady and the Falcons, Colts, Houston and others draft one. What it tells me is, a QB is not just going to magically get better because he's switching teams. For the most part, he'll be the same QB you saw with maybe a slight uptick in production here and there. I think it's either, they for the most part stay the same QB or regress. They don't usually jump into Elite category. Think Brees is the only one that did but perfect worlds collided with Payton. Tannehill wasn't awful in Miami, but he fit so much better with the Titans. Mayfield, Darnold, Brissett, Rosen, etc - They're all back ups. That's what they are. Switch teams all you want, you can't carry a team for a full season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Zachtomims47 said: What it tells me is, a QB is not just going to magically get better because he's switching teams. For the most part, he'll be the same QB you saw with maybe a slight uptick in production here and there. I think it's either, they for the most part stay the same QB or regress. They don't usually jump into Elite category. Think Brees is the only one that did but perfect worlds collided with Payton. Tannehill wasn't awful in Miami, but he fit so much better with the Titans. Mayfield, Darnold, Brissett, Rosen, etc - They're all back ups. That's what they are. Switch teams all you want, you can't carry a team for a full season. Agreed. The revival tour hasn’t worked out at all. The middle tier is where a change of scenery, better fit might elevate a QB’s overall play and be enough to get said team into the playoffs as in the case of Tannenhill, Cousins & Goff (Lions got screwed out of the playoffs this year due to refs in the week 18 Seahawks vs Rams game). The top tier is a big hit or miss. Short story, I like where we are shopping and Zach is most likely who we think he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sourceworx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Good thread topic! You could go back a little further with guys like Kurt Warner going to the Cardinals, or even Jake Plummer going to Denver. Both worked out fairly well (really well for Arizona). If anything, this tells us we should stay away from guys like Gardner Minshew and go after Jimmy Gabbagool or Derek Carr. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 there's a meme out this week that all the playoff QBs left are like 27 and under the Jets decided to open their "super bowl" window with Zach Wilson we are going to spend the next 8 weeks (until FA opens in March) talking about it and then another 5 months after that before games start but spoiler alert there's not really an easy way back from this misstep "just find a QB in FA" yeah that's never really gone well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomebodytoAnybody47 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, bitonti said: there's a meme out this week that all the playoff QBs left are like 27 and under the Jets decided to open their "super bowl" window with Zach Wilson we are going to spend the next 8 weeks (until FA opens in March) talking about it and then another 5 months after that before games start but spoiler alert there's not really an easy way back from this misstep "just find a QB in FA" yeah that's never really gone well. Sure there is. Carr, draft a QB this year or next. Hope drafted QB turns out to be good while Carr keeps you competitive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oatmeal Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said: Sure there is. Carr, draft a QB this year or next. Hope drafted QB turns out to be good while Carr keeps you competitive. If we completely strike out on the QB trade or free agency options and Depending on who’s available at 13 I think we might be forced to draft another QB. it’s a long shot right now IMO but definitely a possibility 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonkertons Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 35 minutes ago, bitonti said: there's a meme out this week that all the playoff QBs left are like 27 and under the Jets decided to open their "super bowl" window with Zach Wilson we are going to spend the next 8 weeks (until FA opens in March) talking about it and then another 5 months after that before games start but spoiler alert there's not really an easy way back from this misstep "just find a QB in FA" yeah that's never really gone well. Our SuperBowl window? Tf are you on about? If anything our window opens next season, and Zach ain’t gonna be the starter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, bonkertons said: Our SuperBowl window? Tf are you on about? If anything our window opens next season, and Zach ain’t gonna be the starter. the idea is that you have a QB on his rookie contract so you can spend on other position Mahomes (27) and Dak (29) are the only two on a second deal, out of the eight qb left in the playoffs. the others are - Trevor Lawrence: 23 - Brock Purdy: 23 - Jalen Hurts: 24 - Daniel Jones: 25 - Joe Burrow: 26 - Josh Allen: 26 yes it can be done with an expensive QB (KC and DAL are doing it after all) but it seems easier to build around a cheap QB than a guy dominating 10 percent of your cap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonkertons Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 35 minutes ago, bitonti said: the idea is that you have a QB on his rookie contract so you can spend on other position Mahomes (27) and Dak (29) are the only two on a second deal, out of the eight qb left in the playoffs. the others are - Trevor Lawrence: 23 - Brock Purdy: 23 - Jalen Hurts: 24 - Daniel Jones: 25 - Joe Burrow: 26 - Josh Allen: 26 yes it can be done with an expensive QB (KC and DAL are doing it after all) but it seems easier to build around a cheap QB than a guy dominating 10 percent of your cap Oh that I can agree with. I thought you were saying that these past couple years we were starting Zach as SuperBowl contenders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Meanwhile....What's the hit rate for the Jets in drafting QBs? It's a no-brainer to go the vet route for a while... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetPotato Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Whatever the "hit rate" of veteran QB acquisitions is, it's higher than the hit rate of drafting one. We have no choice here, dummies. We're not getting our Patrick Mahomes by either avenue... ever. I'll settle for a know quantity of "average" over a "let's see" from the draft. I need to watch a Jets playoff game soon or I'm going to light myself on fire in a public square. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomebodytoAnybody47 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said: Meanwhile....What's the hit rate for the Jets in drafting QBs? It's a no-brainer to go the vet route for a while... Keep swinging with a vet. Simple. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 24 minutes ago, JetPotato said: Whatever the "hit rate" of veteran QB acquisitions is, it's higher than the hit rate of drafting one. We have no choice here, dummies. We're not getting our Patrick Mahomes by either avenue... ever. I'll settle for a know quantity of "average" over a "let's see" from the draft. I need to watch a Jets playoff game soon or I'm going to light myself on fire in a public square. Well now I'm rooting for: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherwiseHappyinLife Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 56 minutes ago, JetPotato said: Whatever the "hit rate" of veteran QB acquisitions is, it's higher than the hit rate of drafting one. We have no choice here, dummies. We're not getting our Patrick Mahomes by either avenue... ever. I'll settle for a know quantity of "average" over a "let's see" from the draft. I need to watch a Jets playoff game soon or I'm going to light myself on fire in a public square. Just for fun, how about we have Zach throw a football with the lit match securely attached? He comes within a 3 foot radius of your body doused in gasoline, it’s goodbye JetPotato. He misses, then we celebrate your courage and demand the league office award us Patrick Mahomes or there will be more of the same. I believe we are on to something here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Blast Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 hours ago, oatmeal said: If we completely strike out on the QB trade or free agency options and Depending on who’s available at 13 I think we might be forced to draft another QB. it’s a long shot right now IMO but definitely a possibility I agree. However, the Jets have been very clear that they intend be aggresive in their QB hunt. The stakes are high for Douglas and Saleh. I don't expect them to miss out and would be surprised if it came to that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Jets fan Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 19 hours ago, bitonti said: the idea is that you have a QB on his rookie contract so you can spend on other position Mahomes (27) and Dak (29) are the only two on a second deal, out of the eight qb left in the playoffs. the others are - Trevor Lawrence: 23 - Brock Purdy: 23 - Jalen Hurts: 24 - Daniel Jones: 25 - Joe Burrow: 26 - Josh Allen: 26 yes it can be done with an expensive QB (KC and DAL are doing it after all) but it seems easier to build around a cheap QB than a guy dominating 10 percent of your cap Allen is on his second deal. The cap is going up so much it’s not going to matter what you pay a QB anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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