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Possible Supply & Demand crisis at QB on the horizon?

Paradis

By Paradis
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Paradis

Paradis

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Lets say for argument's sake that Brady and Rodgers retire.... the latter probably more 50/50 at worst, but regardless--

We've seen the departure over the last 3-4 years of: Rivers, Roethlisberger, E Manning, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and you could argue D Watson is as good as flotsam moving forward. The only teams that have successfully (potentially) replaced that incumbent is NYG w/Jones... Rus Wilson is hanging on by a thread in Den.. Tua, like him or not, has significant health concerns at this point.

The following teams have an inconclusive future at QB, and could reasonably find themselves searching for an answer by next season (2024)

  • PIT (I don't believe they're married to Pickett beyond 2023)
  • NYJ, obviously
  • MIA
  • HOU
  • TEN
  • IND
  • LV
  • CAR
  • TB
  • ATL
  • NOS
  • GB certainly by 2024

Wildcards... could go either way

  • SEA
  • DET
  • LAR
  • WSH

That's a demand at 12, possibly 14-15 teams.. pretty much half the league... There's maybe, 4-5 options this year if you're optimistic:

  • Carr
  • Jimmy G
  • Bryce Young
  • CJ Stroud
  • I guess if you're Levis guy

 

I'm highlighting that we are in a recession comparatively speaking to when teams like NE/GB/IND/NOS/PIT/ATL never drew on the well of resources for so many years. Right now, the demand is going to drive teams to do some interesting things to compensate me thinks. Return of the RB? More Read-option Os?

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Hex

Hex

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Another important point is that young QBs are the ones dominating the league right now. The oldest starting QB still in the AFC race is Mahomes. The others are all younger. In the NFC you have Geno Smith, and then after that the next oldest is Dak Prescott, who was drafted the year before Mahomes. Old QBs aren't as relevant as they used to be.

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derp

derp

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It’ll be interesting to see what the middle to lower end of the market bears out. Obviously teams want to pay Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. What should Carr, Tannehill, Garoppolo, and Cousins really get? What’s Geno Smith going to get? How about Jameis Winston and Jacoby Brissett? What happens when Goff has to move on from the Lions because they went with a young QB is ready? 

Is there a benefit for player and team for a lower end QB to sign for 3 years at under $20M annually so both know who they’ve got as a bridge starter who they can build a loaded team around like a rookie QB without needing to avoid drafting someone for the future or rush to play a guy a guy before he’s ready?

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Beerfish

Beerfish

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Yeah I have been thinking about this and it was my  opinion that the jets had to go after Carr hard and fast.  Even ahead of going after an oc.  Put this oc bit on the back burner and make Carr feel that we really really want him and strike now.   Trade for him and if he says it is better for me to becomes fa tell him we will redo his deal.

If the first couple of guys go off the board the Jets will become very desperate and do something stupid.

I've said for a while that there have not been enough young qb successes to keep up with demand and this years crop is no different.

I like Young but we do not know what he is at the pro level on a team he has to carry, Stroud may be okay.  When people start talking about Levis and Richardson being high to mid 1st rounders ......barf. 

If Carr goes elsewhere we are in huge trouble, (imo)....

also LOL at people turning their noses up at Carr / Cousins caliber QBs

 

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RedBeardedSavage

RedBeardedSavage

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Both to address the Read-Option and the need for QB's, this was interesting:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/18/trey-lance-raises-eyebrows-with-social-media-post-on-ran-carthon/

Quote

The news from Tennessee on Tuesday was that 49ers director of player personnel Ran Carthon has become the Titans’ G.M. Then came an interesting P.S.

49ers quarterback Trey Lance posted on his Instagram story a photo of Carthon. Beneath the image were a trio of fingers-crossed emojis.

I don't think the 49ers need to move him, but it would be reasonable to assume he could be traded?

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Adoni Beast

Adoni Beast

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43 minutes ago, Larz said:

I’m not in love with this years college QBs, but if I’m being honest, that probably means it’s 5 starters coming out lol

No position more difficult to predict and develop than QB in the NFL. 

I thought for sure Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield were going to be studs and that Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were going to be busts.

I thought Winston and Mariota were going to have future Hall of Fame careers and be parallel rivals their entire career.

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Hal N of Provo

Hal N of Provo

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1 hour ago, chirorob said:

Rams have exercised the option on Stafford, so he's back. 

Detroit said they like Goff, so they are good.

If Seattle moves on, Gino also goes into the pool.

That being said,  yeah, 10 teams and maybe 5 QBs available.   Carr will get mega bucks.

Agreed and it sucks because Carr looks like a good vet option but I think you’d want an option out in 2 seasons.   And the market might be more years.  

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choon328

choon328

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2 hours ago, Paradis said:

Lets say for argument's sake that Brady and Rodgers retire.... the latter probably more 50/50 at worst, but regardless--

We've seen the departure over the last 3-4 years of: Rivers, Roethlisberger, E Manning, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and you could argue D Watson is as good as flotsam moving forward. The only teams that have successfully (potentially) replaced that incumbent is NYG w/Jones... Rus Wilson is hanging on by a thread in Den.. Tua, like him or not, has significant health concerns at this point.

The following teams have an inconclusive future at QB, and could reasonably find themselves searching for an answer by next season (2024)

  • PIT (I don't believe they're married to Pickett beyond 2023)
  • NYJ, obviously
  • MIA
  • HOU
  • TEN
  • IND
  • LV
  • CAR
  • TB
  • ATL
  • NOS
  • GB certainly by 2024

Wildcards... could go either way

  • SEA
  • DET
  • LAR
  • WSH

That's a demand at 12, possibly 14-15 teams.. pretty much half the league... There's maybe, 4-5 options this year if you're optimistic:

  • Carr
  • Jimmy G
  • Bryce Young
  • CJ Stroud
  • I guess if you're Levis guy

 

I suppose I'm highlighting that we are in a recession comparatively speaking when teams like NE/GB/IND/NOS/PIT/ATL and so forth never drew on the well of resources for so many years. Right now, it's the demand is going to drive teams to do some interesting things to compensate me thinks. Return of the RB? More Read-option Os?

Good list but you're not factoring one important element in this scenario. What teams are in a position of roster talent to devote that much resources into trading (draft capital) or signing a big FA. There are only 3 QBs on the market via Trade or FA that are top tier,  Brady, Lamar and Carr. What teams in your list fit in this scenario? More then likely the majority of these teams will stand pat or go the mid tier veteran route while they develop a draft pick. The Jets for sure have the most motivation to get a big QB in here bc every person in the organization besides ownership will be gone if they don't win. I think 3 years of 1st round picks traded and a fully guaranteed deal is on the Jets horizon for Lamar. They are desperate. 

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rangerous

rangerous

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2 hours ago, Paradis said:

Lets say for argument's sake that Brady and Rodgers retire.... the latter probably more 50/50 at worst, but regardless--

We've seen the departure over the last 3-4 years of: Rivers, Roethlisberger, E Manning, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and you could argue D Watson is as good as flotsam moving forward. The only teams that have successfully (potentially) replaced that incumbent is NYG w/Jones... Rus Wilson is hanging on by a thread in Den.. Tua, like him or not, has significant health concerns at this point.

The following teams have an inconclusive future at QB, and could reasonably find themselves searching for an answer by next season (2024)

  • PIT (I don't believe they're married to Pickett beyond 2023)
  • NYJ, obviously
  • MIA
  • HOU
  • TEN
  • IND
  • LV
  • CAR
  • TB
  • ATL
  • NOS
  • GB certainly by 2024

Wildcards... could go either way

  • SEA
  • DET
  • LAR
  • WSH

That's a demand at 12, possibly 14-15 teams.. pretty much half the league... There's maybe, 4-5 options this year if you're optimistic:

  • Carr
  • Jimmy G
  • Bryce Young
  • CJ Stroud
  • I guess if you're Levis guy

 

I suppose I'm highlighting that we are in a recession comparatively speaking when teams like NE/GB/IND/NOS/PIT/ATL and so forth never drew on the well of resources for so many years. Right now, it's the demand is going to drive teams to do some interesting things to compensate me thinks. Return of the RB? More Read-option Os?

It doesn’t seem like there are many QBs that stick around for 10 seasons or so. Maybe this will lead to a lower cost going forward. Of course it didn’t help that the jets have missed on so any of their qb draft picks.

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carlito1171

carlito1171

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Great point....which leads to 2 things: 

1. Makes JD's swing and miss at 2 overall even more catastrophic....people want to give him a lifetime contract for one draft but the reality is that very few GMs live to talk about a miss as bad as the one he made. If you don't think his seat doesn't get warmer from here you truly live in homerland 

2. Idk why people are being so picky about upgrading the position and not wanting to pay. I can understand hesitating at the price of someone like Lamar, but the amount of people who want to upgrade at the position but don't want to pay is astonishing. Imagine making up a reason not to go after Derek Carr if he wants to come here? Going off @Paradistheme of supply and demand, its gonna drive the price up for even marginal upgrades. If you can land Carr at his asking price you do it and not look back. What's the alternative? Ruin yet another rookie QB with this regime? Sign minshew and pray we make the wildcard for the next 3 years? 

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Paradis

Paradis

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2 hours ago, chirorob said:

Rams have exercised the option on Stafford, so he's back. 

Detroit said they like Goff, so they are good.

If Seattle moves on, Gino also goes into the pool.

That being said,  yeah, 10 teams and maybe 5 QBs available.   Carr will get mega bucks.

Yes, but i said by 2024. Not this offseason specifically...  More or less looking at the next 18 months, and two cycles of addressing QB, the math suggests there's no where near the number of competent QBs in existence compared to the number of teams that need them. 

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greenwave81

greenwave81

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

It's almost like finding a Top 10 Quarterback is difficult.  Like... there's only ten of them around or something. ? 

Correct.  So, you can either continue to try and find one...or, perhaps the NFL is now in a phase change since the 'GOAT's' are so few and far between?

A team can still be very competitive if they can find someone who is accurate, can move and limit turnovers.  Perhaps you don't need to find someone that can just sit in the pocket and pick a defense apart with good OL play.

Actually, good OL men are getting just about as hard to find as franchise QBs which again begs the question, do you really want to sit around and flail at finding the next Brady/Rodgers which is hard to do...or try and find a guy that is more multi-dimensional and less a 'pocket passer'?

IDK.  But it seems everyone still wants or is looking for the next Brady/Rodgers while maybe they should be looking for a  large frame guy that can move the pocket, run for effect without getting broke in half (like Wilson) and just move the chains while limiting turnovers.

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Stark

Stark

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1 hour ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Ladies and gentlemen, our 2023 starting QB, Ryan tannehill

Oh FFS. Just keep mediocrity at best. 
Tannehill lol.   I warned everyone here that was hoping for C Davis that he wasn’t that guy. I don’t want to have to start in on Tannehill again because this is my fear. This feels like something JD would do mostly just because I’d hate it and they’re gonna try to “save” Zachenberg, which I don’t think is possible. Also might be why we can’t get a guy like Bevel to take an interview.  No one want to be forced to work with bottom tier QBs and potentially be in a 1 year deal if it doesn’t work out 

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