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A STUDY IN QB DRAFT POSITIONS


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3 hours ago, jNYC1 said:

Parcels formula sounds good but is empirically not a great predictor of success on its own.  

It feels like if there was an effective formula for de-risking the “QB draft pick” teams would follow it… in practice, drafting QBs is maddeningly unpredictable…
 

QBase has been better than most.  They’re about 65-75 % effective at pegging who the busts will be.  

They also had Mahomes as the top QB from the 2017 class, as well as much higher grades for guys like Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts than a lot of the analysts did.  

They whiffed on the likes of Mariota, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell with their model but it’s still certainly a useful tool.  

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