Jump to content

The Stupid "Don't mortgage the future" argument


kevinc855

Recommended Posts

14 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

I don't understand Jet fans sometimes. They hord money and draft picks like they are managing their kids 529 account when in reality the money belongs to the guy  they swear they hate, Woody Johnson, and draft picks outside of 2022 have done very little to ever help this franchise. Remmeber how we spent 2 years teraring down and tanking to get Zach. Yes that was smart. 

So here is why we should 100 percent "mortgage the future"

1) The Jets have a top 5 defense. The window on that type of defense is 2-3 years usually looking around the league. Defense is important, and more important in late season and playoff football. You can't underestimate this. 

2) Breece Hall, Garret Wilson year 2. Elijiah Moore year 3. Uzomah waiting to be unleashed. This offsense has weapons and CAN score with competent QB play, let alone star QB play a guy like Rodgers would provide. 

3) Contracts. All this rookie and 2nd year talent will be asking for extensions come 24 and 25. We simply will not be able to pay them all. OUR WINDOW IS NOW

4) The Jets arent rebuilding anymore, they are in execution phase. Losing a first rounder this year or in 24 is not a game changer or hurt the chances moving forward. If JD is all we may or you make him out to be he should be able to find starters in round 2-3 and depth beyond. 

The Jets need to be aggresive and absolutly mortgage the future. A Superbowl, a deep playoff run will bring legitimacy to this team and the rest will take care of itself. YES NOW IS THE TIME TO GO TO THE BANK AND ASK FOR THAT MORTGAGE. Our franchise depends upon it. 

So, mortgaging the future CAN be bad.  HOWEVER, if we are talking Rogers, here is my two cents worth:

1) IF we were to get him, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Denzel Mimes, Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah, Jeremy Ruckert, Breece Hall, Michael Carter, and Ty Johnson SHOULD be enough weapons for Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers actually hasn't had that quality depth in a long time.

2) The defense needs to resign Quincy Williams, Sheldon Rankins, Kwon Alexander, and Bryce Huff.  Possibly find a replacement for Whitehead and Carl Lawson while they are at it.

3) They need to resign Greg Zuerlein for special teams, and then Nate Herbig, Cedric Ogbuehi, and a centre.

4) The only thing missing for an offense led by Aaron Rodgers would be the O-line.  AVT should be back fine, maybe Tomlinson snaps back.  But we have no starting center, no center depth, and nothing for an LT or an RT.  

5)  IF he could pull it off, I would offer the second pick this year and keep the first for an OT.  We HAVE to draft one.  TOO many question marks.  Then, I would possibly offer 2024 1st AND a 2025 1st WITH contract stipulations for success (depending on how far we get into the playoffs).

But I honestly think it would be a waste if we do not address at least one tackle position with a first round pick this year.  There is no guarantee Duane Brown can/will play, and there is no guarantee Mekhi Becton can be counted on for anything.

  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Who says we’re doing what the Rams did?  The Rams ended up with like 2 first round picks over a 10-year period and, somehow, complete cap hell despite the cap not being all that hard to navigate.  

Trading for one QB doesn’t make us the Rams.  

I wasn't talking about trading for one QB. I was talking about mortgaging the future, and the Rams keep coming up as an example, so I used them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's all just opinion, but this is where we diverge, tbh. Carr is soft & just doesn't throw a lot of TDs when - like '22 Brady - factoring in how many pass attempts he throws. He hasn't been top 10 in pass TD percentage since 2016 (and even then only barely cracked the top 10 at his very best). With proper weapons - really with even ONE proper weapon that Carr DID have - Rodgers is the best QB in football (and if he isn't, the difference is insignificant). Not ancient history; literally the season before. Plus it couldn't have been more obvious he didn't want to be there, absent GB throwing truckloads more money at him (amounts nobody turns down absent severe brain damage). 

Don't get me wrong -- Carr would be my top target if they can't get Rodgers (I far prefer him to JG, who won't make it through Columbus Day sales). But Rodgers was as close as he can be to a one-man show this past year - with a broken thumb at that - and they still were somehow about a .500 team.

We'll never know without a time machine & changing history, but under the identical circumstances I'd be surprised if they won half those 8 games with Carr in his place. Never mind if you broke Carr's right thumb on top of that.

If you watched the games he was no great shakes.

If you are a stats guy his stats flat out sucked down the stretch.

If you are a do it when it counts guy he failed in a win and your in game at home.  

The whole thing about Rodgers is going to be are we getting the guy who was mvp two years ago or are we getting the guy who as no great shakes last year with a high end defense.

Carr has never had a good defense.  The Raiders were dead last in takeaways.

To me the difference in players is really offset by the cost to acquire, the cap implications down the road and that fact that Rodgers is a pain in the ass.

Either guy will be a big improvement for the jets no question about it.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Beerfish said:

If you watched the games he was no great shakes.

If you are a stats guy his stats flat out sucked down the stretch.

If you are a do it when it counts guy he failed in a win and your in game at home.  

The whole thing about Rodgers is going to be are we getting the guy who was mvp two years ago or are we getting the guy who as no great shakes last year with a high end defense.

Carr has never had a good defense.  The Raiders were dead last in takeaways.

To me the difference in players is really offset by the cost to acquire, the cap implications down the road and that fact that Rodgers is a pain in the ass.

Either guy will be a big improvement for the jets no question about it.

I did watch games, and he had a broken thumb most of the season which a few people are overlooking like it was nothing. It's not something to make light of. Let alone that the only good/great receiver he had went to Vegas and with that disparity Carr still had worse stats without a broken right thumb.

I don't think they're just nominally different.

The cap implications aren't as big a deal, since both will be expensive & with the cuts they could/should make the team is due to have $125MM in cap space in 2024 & it's a bad idea to leave all that for one offseason. Cost to acquire is absolutely something to consider, but not a deal-breaker unless we're talking in excess of the next two 1sts without any incentives for staying a 2nd season or making the playoffs or anything like that.

No doubt about the Raiders' defense sucking, which is why I'm not totally averse to Carr even if I think he's a distant 2nd-best. (Also think Garoppolo is a distant 3rd behind Carr, even if he might look otherwise for a few games in Sept and possibly 2-3 game stretches into Oct.). So while they were better than the Raiders, I think "high end" is a generous description for Green Bay's defense. 

Agree fully on the last point. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, 56mehl56 said:

I agree no guarantees with any option.  But I ask myself outside of Buffalo what quality team did the Jets beat last season. To get to the SB they  likely need to go through comobs of ( Allen(Buf), Burrow(Cin), Herbert(LAC), Mahomes(KC) ) in the AFC alone. Do I feel like this team(even completely healthy) with AR added is capable of that - nope).

The team right now lacks a QB we all agree with that and we all hope Hackett provides them a lift over what MLF was running . That he's better able to utilize Moore, Mims, Carter and the Te's. The defense while much improved still needs a large run stuffer at D , a stud LB and definitely safety help . This team has holes which won't get filled by trading away multiple high end draft picks. I'd rather see them bring in Carr or even to a lesser extent a Tannehill, Brisset or Winston while continuing to plug those holes then simply adding Rodgers to this mix for a desperation shot at a SB.

I think we can all agree that just having Rodgers this past season would’ve been no guarantee to the playoffs but this team played well enough that they should’ve swept the division and beaten reams like minny.  They lost the 4 division games because of milfy and poor qb play.  Many pieces are in place and if Douglas repeats as a keen drafter this season there will be more upgrades.  Barring injuries this team is ready now.  I get the cap implications of trading for Rodgers and I also get the draft implications. But I don’t think Douglas will give up two firsts and I doubt Green Bay will hold to two firsts. The team that will have real cap issues will be Green Bay if they keep Rodgers.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Yep eventually you gotta push your chips in. As the old saying goes "takes money to make money"

Is there a chance you lose? Of course, but its time to take a shot. 

I miss being in the playoffs so much, at least this year we got to dream a little before it imploded...  I agree, it's time to take some risk...

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, talonmm said:

I miss being in the playoffs so much, at least this year we got to dream a little before it imploded...  I agree, it's time to take some risk...

The bigger risk is sticking with Zach and signing noodle body Garropolo 

 

it’s not even a risk.  That’s a guaranteed way to fail.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, rangerous said:

I think we can all agree that just having Rodgers this past season would’ve been no guarantee to the playoffs but this team played well enough that they should’ve swept the division and beaten reams like minny.  They lost the 4 division games because of milfy and poor qb play.  Many pieces are in place and if Douglas repeats as a keen drafter this season there will be more upgrades.  Barring injuries this team is ready now.  I get the cap implications of trading for Rodgers and I also get the draft implications. But I don’t think Douglas will give up two firsts and I doubt Green Bay will hold to two firsts. The team that will have real cap issues will be Green Bay if they keep Rodgers.

 Its nice the team played better and had more talent than in a number of years , sure there were more wins and close calls against teams like Minn, NE even the 2nd Buf game but at the same time this team still has flaws and holes outside of the QB position. When looking at the wins keep in mind a few came against backups or even 3rd string qbs ( Pit, Mia, Den, Chi) and factor in a miracle win at Cle.

Now I get it, better QB play in a handful of the losses should have resulted in a playoff bid last season.

So I ask again . Does anyone here really believe this is a SB caliber team with simply adding in Aaron Rodgers. There are holes at DT (no run stopper) , Holes at LB ( can anyone cover a TE) , major holes on the Oline and depth needed in many spots.  I feel JD has done a nice job bringing in talent but this is not a finished product yet and it would be assinine at this point to give up major draft assets for a desperation heave at a SB with an aging flake with nothing to prove that may simply quit/retire at any point over the next two seasons. Spend the money on someone like a Carr or Tannehill even  Brissett while picking, developing ,grooming a young QB who can take over in a season or two . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don’t think it’s a stupid argument.  I understand where many are hesitant to pay a ton, I feel the same way.  On the flip side I also understand the other side who are desperate for a veteran QB.  But honestly I don’t see anyone out there that would cost the farm outside of Lamar.  Carr or Jimmy G won’t cost a first hell Carr might even be released.  Rodgers at 39, coming off sort of a down year, his cap hit, and the fact that he may retire in a year or two probably is not going to cost the farm either.  So I think we can get a good veteran QB without having to pay a ton.  

  • Sympathy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/27/2023 at 10:54 AM, Darnold's Forehead said:

The only teams that figure out how to stay good have good QBs.  If they have them on rookie deals then they are set (KC w/ Mahomes early, Cinci now w/ Burrow, Buffalo last couple years, Philly now w/ Hurts.)

Once teams have to pay them, sure they have less to spend elsewhere, but there are still always in the mix because of their QB.  Detroit got “stuck” with Goff and his contract and they are in a much better position than us currently.

Also our “WINDOW IS NOW” because we cannot pay all these players in 3+ years.  Not if we want respectful QB play during that time.  Some are going to have to be paid elsewhere.

Yeah but,,,,

All of those teams are teams who basically got their franchise QB the old fashioned way and then figured out how to field a competitive salary-cap team once they eventually had to pay him.  None of them are teams who paid 50M+ per year for a one or two year rental like Rogers.  The closest thing to that might be the Vikings who have a very indifferent record in the playoffs with Cousins.

All of that is BEFORE factoring in the draft capital that GB will want in trade for Rogers.

The best bet is to get Carr in the house at an affordable trade cost and with a known Salary while improving the offensive line AND drafting a QB like say Hooker in round-3.  At worst I think that gets us "competent" QB play with an improving defense and Offensive line while we continue to figure out the long term solution under center.

If Rogers was cheap enough he might become a consideration but that isn't happening.  Also I really think the Jets may be the only game in town for the Packers and JD needs to pick up any phone calls with not overpaying in mind.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thinking spending a ton for a great two years with Rodgers would be a great deal for the Jets.  It would be nice if the team was not a mess for 12 years like what happened the last time the Jets were great for 2 years.  

Paying less for 1 year could still be interesting. 

But to do what the Broncos just did would be very bad. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, 56mehl56 said:

 Its nice the team played better and had more talent than in a number of years , sure there were more wins and close calls against teams like Minn, NE even the 2nd Buf game but at the same time this team still has flaws and holes outside of the QB position. When looking at the wins keep in mind a few came against backups or even 3rd string qbs ( Pit, Mia, Den, Chi) and factor in a miracle win at Cle.

Now I get it, better QB play in a handful of the losses should have resulted in a playoff bid last season.

So I ask again . Does anyone here really believe this is a SB caliber team with simply adding in Aaron Rodgers. There are holes at DT (no run stopper) , Holes at LB ( can anyone cover a TE) , major holes on the Oline and depth needed in many spots.  I feel JD has done a nice job bringing in talent but this is not a finished product yet and it would be assinine at this point to give up major draft assets for a desperation heave at a SB with an aging flake with nothing to prove that may simply quit/retire at any point over the next two seasons. Spend the money on someone like a Carr or Tannehill even  Brissett while picking, developing ,grooming a young QB who can take over in a season or two . 

Okay, your point is well taken. Maybe Super Bowl is a reach by simply adding a qb but the playoffs aren’t and there is every reason to believe Douglas will fill some of those holes through the draft.  Past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance. Another point is just what team does have all the holes filled?  Buffalo was at full strength but got beat by a bengals team with a patchwork oline. It happens.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, rangerous said:

Okay, your point is well taken. Maybe Super Bowl is a reach by simply adding a qb but the playoffs aren’t and there is every reason to believe Douglas will fill some of those holes through the draft.  Past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance. Another point is just what team does have all the holes filled?  Buffalo was at full strength but got beat by a bengals team with a patchwork oline. It happens.

Rodgers + jets current roster = Super Bowl favorites

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

So, mortgaging the future CAN be bad.  HOWEVER, if we are talking Rogers, here is my two cents worth:

1) IF we were to get him, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Denzel Mimes, Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah, Jeremy Ruckert, Breece Hall, Michael Carter, and Ty Johnson SHOULD be enough weapons for Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers actually hasn't had that quality depth in a long time.

2) The defense needs to resign Quincy Williams, Sheldon Rankins, Kwon Alexander, and Bryce Huff.  Possibly find a replacement for Whitehead and Carl Lawson while they are at it.

3) They need to resign Greg Zuerlein for special teams, and then Nate Herbig, Cedric Ogbuehi, and a centre.

4) The only thing missing for an offense led by Aaron Rodgers would be the O-line.  AVT should be back fine, maybe Tomlinson snaps back.  But we have no starting center, no center depth, and nothing for an LT or an RT.  

5)  IF he could pull it off, I would offer the second pick this year and keep the first for an OT.  We HAVE to draft one.  TOO many question marks.  Then, I would possibly offer 2024 1st AND a 2025 1st WITH contract stipulations for success (depending on how far we get into the playoffs).

But I honestly think it would be a waste if we do not address at least one tackle position with a first round pick this year.  There is no guarantee Duane Brown can/will play, and there is no guarantee Mekhi Becton can be counted on for anything.

That is a completely insane absurd franchise crippling overpay of a trade offer for Rodgers. Two firsts and a second???  If the Jets don't win in 2023, see you in 2027 for the next shot a respectable season.  I'm too old for that.  Rodgers is not a 32 year old Stafford. He is at the end of his career.  Stafford and Wilson are not comparable.  I just think this desperate win or lose your jobs plan is a disaster waiting to happen. It's not the way to run an NFL team.  This year's two and a 2024 2nd day pick is the highest I would go. If you want to make the 2024 a first if the Jets win the SB, fine. But your offer is ridiculous.

  • Post of the Week 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, VJphillyfan said:

The bigger risk is sticking with Zach and signing noodle body Garropolo 

 

it’s not even a risk.  That’s a guaranteed way to fail.

I meant risk.... not stupidity.  I agree, no Zach, and no Garropolo.  And can we please have a competent QB backup next year?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

So then the difference in that and the RW trade is basically a 2nd and a few scrub players. 

No. They trades 2 firsts and 2 seconds and a 5th. Plus their backup qb, a decent tight end in Noah fant and some other depth don’t I don’t remember 

if you get him for 2 firsts and a 4th it’s no where close in trade boards 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

That is a completely insane absurd franchise crippling overpay of a trade offer for Rodgers. Two firsts and a second???  If the Jets don't win in 2023, see you in 2027 for the next shot a respectable season.  I'm too old for that.  Rodgers is not a 32 year old Stafford. He is at the end of his career.  Stafford and Wilson are not comparable.  I just think this desperate win or lose your jobs plan is a disaster waiting to happen. It's not the way to run an NFL team.  This year's two and a 2024 2nd day pick is the highest I would go. If you want to make the 2024 a first if the Jets win the SB, fine. But your offer is ridiculous.

Joe willie = The guy satisfied with perpetual 8-9 or 9-8 seasons never getting over the hump all while thinking he’s smarter then everyone in the room because he still has “draft capital” 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, kevinc855 said:

Joe willie = The guy satisfied with perpetual 8-9 or 9-8 seasons never getting over the hump all while thinking he’s smarter then everyone in the room because he still has “draft capital” 

I know a TON of guys like that.  Jets fans that think 10 wins is fantastic.  Look at the teams still in it and winners of most SB;s.  

They are not 10 win teams save for a few rare exceptions.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

That is a completely insane absurd franchise crippling overpay of a trade offer for Rodgers. Two firsts and a second???  If the Jets don't win in 2023, see you in 2027 for the next shot a respectable season.  I'm too old for that.  Rodgers is not a 32 year old Stafford. He is at the end of his career.  Stafford and Wilson are not comparable.  I just think this desperate win or lose your jobs plan is a disaster waiting to happen. It's not the way to run an NFL team.  This year's two and a 2024 2nd day pick is the highest I would go. If you want to make the 2024 a first if the Jets win the SB, fine. But your offer is ridiculous.

Why is it ridiculous if we get to a Super Bowl?  I did not say to give them two firsts.  I said to give them two firsts dependent on how we finish.  

They get the 2nd pick this year guaranteed.  The other two picks would be no higher than 3rd rounders.  IF we get to the AFC Championship, they would escalate to 2nd rounders.  IF we win a Super Bowl, they would escalate to 1st rounders. 

Hell, if we were to win the Super Bowl next year, the one pick might escalate to a first and that would be it.  Apologies if the writing misled to any other suggestion.  There is NO chance I would give Green Bay two firsts and a second unless we win a Super Bowl.   

BUT...If you think it would take less than that to get Rodgers, I think you would be incorrect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Joe willie = The guy satisfied with perpetual 8-9 or 9-8 seasons never getting over the hump all while thinking he’s smarter then everyone in the room because he still has “draft capital” 

You know nothing about me.  I'd prefer to win 12 games for 5 years over 8-9 win seasons. I'd rather win 4 games again than 8 because a team that wins 8-9 games is in the worst position in the NFL.

 

Kevin= the guy who wants the Jets to be the next Denver Broncos - a team that thought they were a QB away and ended up making a trade that is an albatross for the next 5 years. He's the guy who knocks the GM and even stalks him because he is so terrible and then thinks the roster is so strong that they are 1 player away from a SB title.  You have zero ability to see beyond the current season.  

You know nothing about me. I'm in my 60s and have been patiently waiting for another SB for 54 years.  You are the guy who has been clamoring for 9 win seasons with the patience of a 2 year old.  It is you who has been unwilling to sit through 4 and 7 win seasons because you just want "wins."  You want to change coaches and GMs like people change underwear.  And now you want the shiny toy in the room because you foolishly think that is the only way to win a SB.  

I don't want a 9 win season.  I thought 2015 was a major disappointment not just because they missed the playoffs, but because the Jets went "all in" as you put it - with free agent acquisitions of older players like Marshall and Decker and Fitz as a QB.  Yes it was fun for a few weeks, but it all came crashing down in 2016 when the old players got older.  I want to continue building a team that can win 11+ games for a few years and make the playoffs for a few years and have 4-5 shots to win a SB, not a one year lottery ticket.

And here we are looking at 2023 and the Jets finally have young talent and you are the one who says - that's enough building let's take a one year shot at a SB because I'm tired of waiting. "Waaaaah I want to win now. I can't wait any longer"

And when it doesn't work, you'll be first in line saying fire everyone because they stink when it was people like you who made them abandon the plan to build a perennial playoff team because you want instant gratification and the ability to say "Wow. We got Aaron Rodgers". As if it was 2010 and not 2023.  

  • Upvote 1
  • Post of the Week 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

I know a TON of guys like that.  Jets fans that think 10 wins is fantastic.  Look at the teams still in it and winners of most SB;s.  

They are not 10 win teams save for a few rare exceptions.  

When did I ever say 10 wins is good?  I never did.  It's people like you who pine for 2015 as if that 10 win season was the greatest year ever. I thought it sucked.  You all act like trading for Rodgers is a guaranteed Super Bowl, so trade the farm - go "all in" because a Super Bowl is worth it.  Read my posts. I'm saying that trading for an old Rodgers doesn't guarantee anything - not a SB, not the playoffs, not 9 wins.  It guarantees nothing.  And by trading away so much, you lose out on winning anything after 2023 as well. I want a more stable, longer term option and the ability to continue building the roster. The QB that can take the Jets to the SB might be available a year from now or might be someone that doesn't cost as much as 2 #1 picks.  There are QBs available every season.  I don't want to go all in on a guy who might be done and who is playing two years tops.  

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...