Daniel Jeremiah's top 50 rankings

[bonkertons]

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2023-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-1-0

 

Thought this list was pretty interesting.  Some things that stood out to me:

1)  Bijan Robinson at 4 - I know I've often seen him ranked high as a prospect but I guess that doesn't necessarily mean a team would want to spend a top-10 pick on a RB.  Curious to see just how high he goes.

2)  Keion White at 8 - honestly don't ever remember seeing his name in any mocks and suddenly this guy has him ranked in the top-10, ahead of guys like Myles Murphy.  Anyone else know anything about this guy?

3)  Dalton Kincaid at 9 - way ahead of Mayer.  Surprised but then again, he's been rocketing up lists.  Wouldn't surprise me to see him go real early tbh....maybe even to us?  Who knows.  I feel like he's the type of guy a GM can fall in love with to the point where he has to take him, even if he's not necessarily a "need".  

4)  Joe Tippmann at 27 - easily the highest I've ever seen him ranked.  The thought of him being a 1st rounder never even entered my brain before this.  Still don't think I'd take him anywhere near the first 2 rounds, but if he's there in the 3rd?  Maybe.  

5) Quentin Johnston at 35 - that would shock me, but the draft is a strange beast.  All I know is if we pick 13, still have our 2nd, and Johnston drops out of the 1st...I'd think long and hard about moving up to get him.

6) Brian Bresee at 43 - another one that would shock me.  43 is only what?  1 pick before our 2nd rounder?  Another guy I think I'd have to take if he's there in the 2nd.  Especially since a long-term answer next to Quinnen is definitely going to be a need going forward.

 

[derp]

Preparing myself for three months of mocks with a trade down into the 20’s to take Tippmann.

Or I guess a month and a half before 13 is gone in a Rodgers trade.

[maury77]

He's the first guy to have Keion White that high. When I watched White's tape, I was intrigued. 

 

[sec101row23]

Quentin Johnson will be dissected and given the full scrutiny, would not be shocked at all if he went mid to late second round.  He’s being extremely over valued right now.  

[section314]

Looking at this list, there is no reason we can’t come out of the 1st two rounds with two starting OL.

[bonkertons]

On 1/31/2023 at 8:21 PM, section314 said:

Looking at this list, there is no reason we can’t come out of the 1st two rounds with two starting OL.

I think if the draft shaked out this way, one of Johnson or Jones at 13 would be a safe bet, but I'd have a hard time passing up Bresee at 43.  I know S, LB, or even C would be the bigger needs to address in that spot, but a long term DT next to Quinnen is also a need IMO.  Not necessarily one that needs to be addressed this year, but in that spot I'd have a hard time passing up that chance.  

[maury77]

On 1/31/2023 at 6:45 PM, sec101row23 said:

Quentin Johnson will be dissected and given the full scrutiny, would not be shocked at all if he went mid to late second round.  He’s being extremely over valued right now.  

Why do you feel that way? I don't disagree, I just don't have an opinion yet because I have not done a deep dive on him. 

[sec101row23]

44 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Why do you feel that way? I don't disagree, I just don't have an opinion yet because I have not done a deep dive on him. 

Mainly because it is a really weak WR class, especially at the top,  so I think he’s getting pushed up based on that, same could be said for Jaxson  Smith-Njigba.   For Johnson, I just don’t see a natural catcher of the ball and don’t see enough all around ability to warrant a high selection.  He has good size and could function well in traffic and the red zone, but I don’t see him being a good value as a top 20 or so pick in this years draft.  

[section314]

2 hours ago, maury77 said:

Why do you feel that way? I don't disagree, I just don't have an opinion yet because I have not done a deep dive on him. 

Maybe this years Burks?

[derp]

I think draft folks tend to get excited about guys who seem to have X profiles physically - that's who went at the top of the draft historically. I grew up following the draft in the run that had Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, and Julio Jones and it's been pretty barren since then. Any time anybody is close to fitting that profile it's exciting because those guys were awesome and also the Jets also would really benefit from a guy who can threaten teams down the field on low volume.

I'd take a Tee Higgins or Mike Williams who can get you somewhere in the 70 catches for 1000 yards and several touchdowns on 110 targets while threatening downfield and by the boundary in a heartbeat. Would be absolutely awesome to put across from Garrett Wilson. I think that is starting to come in more flavors than the 6'4 220 guy who runs right around 4.5, but that's what I always associate it with.

It's slow but I've eventually started to recognize my terrible bias there. The types of guys @Chrebetfan80 likes who are more technically proficient tend to translate better.

[Chrebetfan80]

10 minutes ago, derp said:

I think draft folks tend to get excited about guys who seem to have X profiles physically - that's who went at the top of the draft historically. I grew up following the draft in the run that had Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, and Julio Jones and it's been pretty barren since then. Any time anybody is close to fitting that profile it's exciting because those guys were awesome and also the Jets also would really benefit from a guy who can threaten teams down the field on low volume.

I'd take a Tee Higgins or Mike Williams who can get you somewhere in the 70 catches for 1000 yards and several touchdowns on 110 targets while threatening downfield and by the boundary in a heartbeat. Would be absolutely awesome to put across from Garrett Wilson. I think that is starting to come in more flavors than the 6'4 220 guy who runs right around 4.5, but that's what I always associate it with.

It's slow but I've eventually started to recognize my terrible bias there. The types of guys @Chrebetfan80 likes who are more technically proficient tend to translate better.

I think this is just the way the league is trending.  There will always be a place for the "Big guy that runs fast" type of WR.  But the league is changing, corners are getting bigger to match, hell sauce is 6'3! As these corners and safeties and the exotic looks defenses are giving get better, having WR's that can just plain get open off of the combination of fantastic technique as well as blessed athleticism are more and more valuable. 

Top Wr's in the league now arent these 6'5 220 guys anymore. Its Jamar Chase at 6'0 200. its Justin Jefferson at 6'1 200. Garret Wilson at 6'0 190 put up an unbelievable year with essentially high school level quarterbacking.  Thats the blueprint now.

I came to this conclusion years ago as a coach when we'd lose guys to injury.  Losing the BIG X Wr always sucked, but I was way more worried when I saw my smaller technically sound WR's be slow to get up because those were the guys you relied on more often.  YES the BIG TIME X TARGET can get you quick hitters and explosives, but you cant make a living on offense with them.  

In my opinion, its always nice to have a take the top off guy (hence why i like Hyatt this year) but I also see how effective an offense can be built around guys like Wilson and Moore because they can get open vs any coverage.  That makes an offense extremelyyyyy tough to defend.  Take it from a DC Id much rather game plan against 1 big fast wr than multiple super technically sound WRs. 

[derp]

2 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I think this is just the way the league is trending.  There will always be a place for the "Big guy that runs fast" type of WR.  But the league is changing, corners are getting bigger to match, hell sauce is 6'3! As these corners and safeties and the exotic looks defenses are giving get better, having WR's that can just plain get open off of the combination of fantastic technique as well as blessed athleticism are more and more valuable. 

Top Wr's in the league now arent these 6'5 220 guys anymore. Its Jamar Chase at 6'0 200. its Justin Jefferson at 6'1 200. Garret Wilson at 6'0 190 put up an unbelievable year with essentially high school level quarterbacking.  Thats the blueprint now.

I came to this conclusion years ago as a coach when we'd lose guys to injury.  Losing the BIG X Wr always sucked, but I was way more worried when I saw my smaller technically sound WR's be slow to get up because those were the guys you relied on more often.  YES the BIG TIME X TARGET can get you quick hitters and explosives, but you cant make a living on offense with them.  

In my opinion, its always nice to have a take the top off guy (hence why i like Hyatt this year) but I also see how effective an offense can be built around guys like Wilson and Moore because they can get open vs any coverage.  That makes an offense extremelyyyyy tough to defend.  Take it from a DC Id much rather game plan against 1 big fast wr than multiple super technically sound WRs. 

Yeah, the league is absolutely changing. I understand what would happen if the Jets add a deep threat - though I don't know how much impact it'd truly make. Do find Hyatt intriguing. I'm interested conceptually with what happens if the Jets just add another very good wide receiver and how that might impact the offense. Add a guy who's roughly around Wilson's caliber and unlock Moore - maybe with good QB play that is at least as good as the deep threat if not better. I do think it's probably more QB play reliant than others which is probably part of my instinctive hesitancy - don't trust the Jets to have good QB play.

Unrelated but also kind of directly related - I know you like Hyatt and JSN. Thoughts on Addison? Seems like he's semi-consensus WR1 this year but we haven't talked about him a whole lot. Didn't have a huge year at USC and has exclusively played with first round QB's. Unless Hyatt absolutely flies up boards, if they're taking a guy at 13 (assuming they still have that pick) I'd think Addison is most likely at this stage, but haven't dug in yet (and honestly doubt I'll truly have the time - or I'd have as good a feel as you even if I did).

[#27TheDominator]

14 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I think this is just the way the league is trending.  There will always be a place for the "Big guy that runs fast" type of WR.  But the league is changing, corners are getting bigger to match, hell sauce is 6'3! As these corners and safeties and the exotic looks defenses are giving get better, having WR's that can just plain get open off of the combination of fantastic technique as well as blessed athleticism are more and more valuable. 

Top Wr's in the league now arent these 6'5 220 guys anymore. Its Jamar Chase at 6'0 200. its Justin Jefferson at 6'1 200. Garret Wilson at 6'0 190 put up an unbelievable year with essentially high school level quarterbacking.  Thats the blueprint now.

I came to this conclusion years ago as a coach when we'd lose guys to injury.  Losing the BIG X Wr always sucked, but I was way more worried when I saw my smaller technically sound WR's be slow to get up because those were the guys you relied on more often.  YES the BIG TIME X TARGET can get you quick hitters and explosives, but you cant make a living on offense with them.  

In my opinion, its always nice to have a take the top off guy (hence why i like Hyatt this year) but I also see how effective an offense can be built around guys like Wilson and Moore because they can get open vs any coverage.  That makes an offense extremelyyyyy tough to defend.  Take it from a DC Id much rather game plan against 1 big fast wr than multiple super technically sound WRs. 

Is that why DK Metcalf went at  64?

4 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah, the league is absolutely changing. I understand what would happen if the Jets add a deep threat - though I don't know how much impact it'd truly make. Do find Hyatt intriguing. I'm interested conceptually with what happens if the Jets just add another very good wide receiver and how that might impact the offense. Add a guy who's roughly around Wilson's caliber and unlock Moore - maybe with good QB play that is at least as good as the deep threat if not better. I do think it's probably more QB play reliant than others which is probably part of my instinctive hesitancy - don't trust the Jets to have good QB play.

Unrelated but also kind of directly related - I know you like Hyatt and JSN. Thoughts on Addison? Seems like he's semi-consensus WR1 this year but we haven't talked about him a whole lot. Didn't have a huge year at USC and has exclusively played with first round QB's. Unless Hyatt absolutely flies up boards, if they're taking a guy at 13 (assuming they still have that pick) I'd think Addison is most likely at this stage, but haven't dug in yet (and honestly doubt I'll truly have the time - or I'd have as good a feel as you even if I did).

Trouble with just adding another good receiver is that it is not that easy to find a guy that is roughly around Wilson's caliber.  Wilson went at 10 overall.  We are picking 13 and Wilson appears to have been a great pick.  I think the idea is that with a good QB and WIlson, the other guys should be getting more open looks.  They won't  have to be as good as WIlson.  Only more dynamic than Davis.  I think that was the hope with Mims and Moore stepping up.  Maybe with a real QB they do. 

[derp]

18 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Is that why DK Metcalf went at  64?

Trouble with just adding another good receiver is that it is not that easy to find a guy that is roughly around Wilson's caliber.  Wilson went at 10 overall.  We are picking 13 and Wilson appears to have been a great pick.  I think the idea is that with a good QB and WIlson, the other guys should be getting more open looks.  They won't  have to be as good as WIlson.  Only more dynamic than Davis.  I think that was the hope with Mims and Moore stepping up.  Maybe with a real QB they do. 

I think Metcalf went 64 for a slew of reasons including the cervical neck fracture that ended his last year in college, no real route tree, and no real college production. He had 67 catches for 1,228 yards his entire college career, not far off Stephen Hill completely busting with pretty similar stats and physical profile.

As to the difficulty of finding someone roughly Wilson's character, maybe. The hit rate up high with the more technically sound guys has been pretty good.

In the NFL nowadays teams have multiple playmakers, not one guy. It's just not enough. Waddle and Hill, Williams and Allen, Chase and Higgins, Smith and Brown - it's just the way the league is going. Need multiple threats. The teams with the special QB's can get away with having just one guy, Mahomes does it with pretty much just Kelce, not sure even Rodgers is at Mahomes' level at this stage in his career. Get down to the Carr level and his weapons on the Jets would probably be worse than they were with the Raiders.

[Chrebetfan80]

34 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Is that why DK Metcalf went at  64?

Trouble with just adding another good receiver is that it is not that easy to find a guy that is roughly around Wilson's caliber.  Wilson went at 10 overall.  We are picking 13 and Wilson appears to have been a great pick.  I think the idea is that with a good QB and WIlson, the other guys should be getting more open looks.  They won't  have to be as good as WIlson.  Only more dynamic than Davis.  I think that was the hope with Mims and Moore stepping up.  Maybe with a real QB they do. 

no DK went that far because there were concerns about his route running coming out.  He never really produced a dominant year at WR in college either.  While clearly a physical specimen, there were just a lot of unanswered questions that game tape couldnt give the answer to.  To his credit, like apparently most of that Ole miss group, they were all working behind the scenes with various WR trainers and his route running was much better than anticipated. 

 

[Chrebetfan80]

13 minutes ago, derp said:

I think Metcalf went 64 for a slew of reasons including the cervical neck fracture that ended his last year in college, no real route tree, and no real college production. He had 67 catches for 1,228 yards his entire college career, not far off Stephen Hill completely busting with pretty similar stats and physical profile.

As to the difficulty of finding someone roughly Wilson's character, maybe. The hit rate up high with the more technically sound guys has been pretty good.

In the NFL nowadays teams have multiple playmakers, not one guy. It's just not enough. Waddle and Hill, Williams and Allen, Chase and Higgins, Smith and Brown - it's just the way the league is going. Need multiple threats. The teams with the special QB's can get away with having just one guy, Mahomes does it with pretty much just Kelce, not sure even Rodgers is at Mahomes' level at this stage in his career. Get down to the Carr level and his weapons on the Jets would probably be worse than they were with the Raiders.

I agree, you need multiple guys.  The thing is i believe we already have multiple guys.  Moore was criminally under used in that offense and routinely in the dog house for reasons no one can justify.  He's going to produce more than you'd expect when put in the right situation.  Wilson will be our 1, Moore our 2.  now we need a 2b.  I think the draft is a great spot for this while we also hope that a new offense and a release from the dog house revitalizes a denzel mims who we all were high on coming out.  

But yes it wont be at 13 that pick in all likely hood will be traded.  And when it is i wouldnt be surprised if the other WR we add isnt through the draft but Randal Cobb. 

[#27TheDominator]

 

35 minutes ago, derp said:

I think Metcalf went 64 for a slew of reasons including the cervical neck fracture that ended his last year in college, no real route tree, and no real college production. He had 67 catches for 1,228 yards his entire college career, not far off Stephen Hill completely busting with pretty similar stats and physical profile.

As to the difficulty of finding someone roughly Wilson's character, maybe. The hit rate up high with the more technically sound guys has been pretty good.

In the NFL nowadays teams have multiple playmakers, not one guy. It's just not enough. Waddle and Hill, Williams and Allen, Chase and Higgins, Smith and Brown - it's just the way the league is going. Need multiple threats. The teams with the special QB's can get away with having just one guy, Mahomes does it with pretty much just Kelce, not sure even Rodgers is at Mahomes' level at this stage in his career. Get down to the Carr level and his weapons on the Jets would probably be worse than they were with the Raiders.

I agree they need multiple playmakers.  I just don't think you can count on them getting another one the level of Wilson.  Hall coming back should be a fairly huge help.   The hope is the good compliments good to be better.  Even a slug like Corey Davis looked better than serviceable next to AJ Brown.  You have to hope that Moore perks back up with a new QB and an OC he isn't cursing out.  You always want to add playmakers, you can never have enough.  I am just not holding my breath for a guy at the top of the draft.  A flawed guy or a small school guy might be a better play.  I know they probably want a guy with some size, but these smaller guys generally drop and they can be huge weapons with someone like Wilson drawing heat on the other side.  Maybe a small school guy, like the kid from Princeton.  

23 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

no DK went that far because there were concerns about his route running coming out.  He never really produced a dominant year at WR in college either.  While clearly a physical specimen, there were just a lot of unanswered questions that game tape couldnt give the answer to.  To his credit, like apparently most of that Ole miss group, they were all working behind the scenes with various WR trainers and his route running was much better than anticipated. 

 

Funny.  I thought Metcalf dropped because he had the 3 cone of an unsuccessful pass rusher.

[Chrebetfan80]

1 hour ago, derp said:

Yeah, the league is absolutely changing. I understand what would happen if the Jets add a deep threat - though I don't know how much impact it'd truly make. Do find Hyatt intriguing. I'm interested conceptually with what happens if the Jets just add another very good wide receiver and how that might impact the offense. Add a guy who's roughly around Wilson's caliber and unlock Moore - maybe with good QB play that is at least as good as the deep threat if not better. I do think it's probably more QB play reliant than others which is probably part of my instinctive hesitancy - don't trust the Jets to have good QB play.

Unrelated but also kind of directly related - I know you like Hyatt and JSN. Thoughts on Addison? Seems like he's semi-consensus WR1 this year but we haven't talked about him a whole lot. Didn't have a huge year at USC and has exclusively played with first round QB's. Unless Hyatt absolutely flies up boards, if they're taking a guy at 13 (assuming they still have that pick) I'd think Addison is most likely at this stage, but haven't dug in yet (and honestly doubt I'll truly have the time - or I'd have as good a feel as you even if I did).

I dont think anyone has talked about him because everyone feels he wont be around when we select a WR lol 

Right now, just thinking about this class.  He very well may be WR1.  His weight concerns me a little because i believe he's listed at 175.  otherwise prototypical build i like (6'0). He's a great route runner, on par with JSN in terms of how he uses tempo and his breakpoints but I think Addison is more of a dynamic player where as JSN a little more physical.  

If theres 1 wr that goes in the 20's this year I think its Addison.  Weight will concern some teams and we'll see where he comes in at the combine and how he's built but when you pop on the tape you see a guy that creates separation at all levels and shows an advanced release move tool box as well as different stems throughout the route progression.  

[Chrebetfan80]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

 

I agree they need multiple playmakers.  I just don't think you can count on them getting another one the level of Wilson.  Hall coming back should be a fairly huge help.   The hope is the good compliments good to be better.  Even a slug like Corey Davis looked better than serviceable next to AJ Brown.  You have to hope that Moore perks back up with a new QB and an OC he isn't cursing out.  You always want to add playmakers, you can never have enough.  I am just not holding my breath for a guy at the top of the draft.  A flawed guy or a small school guy might be a better play.  I know they probably want a guy with some size, but these smaller guys generally drop and they can be huge weapons with someone like Wilson drawing heat on the other side.  Maybe a small school guy, like the kid from Princeton.  

Funny.  I thought Metcalf dropped because he had the 3 cone of an unsuccessful pass rusher.

I mean that didnt help him haha contributed to the notion that he couldnt be a good route runner at the next level.  Just a credit to him as a player that he is able to do what he does with the variety of routes they give him there and how he has improved. 

[derp]

42 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

I agree, you need multiple guys.  The thing is i believe we already have multiple guys.  Moore was criminally under used in that offense and routinely in the dog house for reasons no one can justify.  He's going to produce more than you'd expect when put in the right situation.  Wilson will be our 1, Moore our 2.  now we need a 2b.  I think the draft is a great spot for this while we also hope that a new offense and a release from the dog house revitalizes a denzel mims who we all were high on coming out.  

But yes it wont be at 13 that pick in all likely hood will be traded.  And when it is i wouldnt be surprised if the other WR we add isnt through the draft but Randal Cobb. 

Don’t get me wrong I like Moore quite a bit and think he’s got a chance to be far more productive, but based on the two year return I wouldn’t let that stop me from going back to the well at 13 if there’s someone they like. If there’s a better player than a WR on the board who fits a need then by all means, but I think the room is unproven enough that those guys aren’t stopping you from taking another. Especially when it’s pretty standard to have 3 of those guys on the field together.

26 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

 

I agree they need multiple playmakers.  I just don't think you can count on them getting another one the level of Wilson.  Hall coming back should be a fairly huge help.   The hope is the good compliments good to be better.  Even a slug like Corey Davis looked better than serviceable next to AJ Brown.  You have to hope that Moore perks back up with a new QB and an OC he isn't cursing out.  You always want to add playmakers, you can never have enough.  I am just not holding my breath for a guy at the top of the draft.  A flawed guy or a small school guy might be a better play.  I know they probably want a guy with some size, but these smaller guys generally drop and they can be huge weapons with someone like Wilson drawing heat on the other side.  Maybe a small school guy, like the kid from Princeton.  

Funny.  I thought Metcalf dropped because he had the 3 cone of an unsuccessful pass rusher.

See above, and of course you can’t count on getting someone at the level of Wilson. Can’t count on anything in the draft. Not holding my breath for a guy at the top of the draft either, I’m not sure they even end up with a pick.

Think this exchange started with me talking about wondering how the offense looks with another technically sound but not deep threat WR and you saying a) it’s hard and b) maybe others step up.

I don’t think they necessarily need to do it, but given I think playmakers are a need, if they’re in position to take a guy who could fill that but is more redundant with the guys they have (speed and route running) than bringing a different (big body) skill set then would that still help achieve the goal of opening up the offense - that kind of thing.

Ultimately they need more dudes who scare defenses, if there’s someone there I hope they give it serious consideration.

[Chrebetfan80]

15 minutes ago, derp said:

Don’t get me wrong I like Moore quite a bit and think he’s got a chance to be far more productive, but based on the two year return I wouldn’t let that stop me from going back to the well at 13 if there’s someone they like. If there’s a better player than a WR on the board who fits a need then by all means, but I think the room is unproven enough that those guys aren’t stopping you from taking another. Especially when it’s pretty standard to have 3 of those guys on the field together.

Totally agree, but honestly a few things:

  1) i dont think we'll have pick 13, i fully expect that to be traded away for Rodgers

-If we do trade for Rodgers, I believe we will also be bringing in Randal Cobb on a small deal.  While this may not be akin to drafting a really good new WR I think his veteran presence helps the team alot and hopefully the combination of a new OC and WR coach opens up things with Moore and Mims a little bit. 

2). If we do have 13, barring a great OL being there I assume we'd trade down. 

At the back end of round 1 I would consider a WR if addison was there, otherwise I would wait until the 2nd round where my target up until this point had been Rashee Rice. 

Bottom line I do not think they feel that room is "complete". But the Rodgers situation dictates a lot for the plan in that room. 

 

[bonkertons]

I think I'd wait until the 2nd the earliest to take another WR.  Just think the OL need is too great.  Maybe if we trade down from 13, sure.  Otherwise I just keep it simple and take one of the big-3 OTs.  Plus the 2nd round should have some talent.  Hyatt, Downs, Rice, Dell, etc.  Should be a good crop to choose from.  

[derp]

59 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Totally agree, but honestly a few things:

  1) i dont think we'll have pick 13, i fully expect that to be traded away for Rodgers

-If we do trade for Rodgers, I believe we will also be bringing in Randal Cobb on a small deal.  While this may not be akin to drafting a really good new WR I think his veteran presence helps the team alot and hopefully the combination of a new OC and WR coach opens up things with Moore and Mims a little bit. 

2). If we do have 13, barring a great OL being there I assume we'd trade down. 

At the back end of round 1 I would consider a WR if addison was there, otherwise I would wait until the 2nd round where my target up until this point had been Rashee Rice. 

Bottom line I do not think they feel that room is "complete". But the Rodgers situation dictates a lot for the plan in that room. 

 

Yeah, I'm with you. I think 13 is gone for Rodgers too. That said, if 13's not gone then no Rodgers and all the more need to build up the stable of playmakers to prop up whatever league average ish at best quarterback they bring in. And agree that a trade down would make sense but I think a trade down makes sense every year so don't want to learn on that too much.

It'll be interesting to see how this stuff shakes out. Guys like Hyatt and Johnston have wide ranges at this point, on the lower end of their respective ranges they become more interesting. The WR room would benefit from a guy who can produce on volume or from a guy who can create space and big plays while threatening defenses on low volume. I they can accomplish either or both of those things cheaply, I'm all for it. 

Shame another small guy doesn't make a ton of sense as it seems like Zay Flowers can play too.

[maury77]

The draft forum is really the penthouse on this message board, thanks for all the analysis you guys provide. 

[Bronxville Jets Fan]

9 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

 1) i dont think we'll have pick 13, i fully expect that to be traded away for Rodgers

I disagree.  I think the risk that Rodgers retires after one year will make the 13th overall pick too rich for JD to part with.  There will have to be some meaningful 2024 conditional picks included in any package.  

I’m just not buying that the Jets will fork over a kings ransom for Rodgers.  I remember Patriots fans thought that was going to happen with Jimmy G and they ended up getting a second.  I know it’s not an apples to apples comparison but it still comes to mind.

[jetsons]

On 1/31/2023 at 2:43 PM, derp said:

Preparing myself for three months of mocks with a trade down into the 20’s to take Tippmann.

Or I guess a month and a half before 13 is gone in a Rodgers trade.

Should be Next years #1  

[T0mShane]

On 1/31/2023 at 3:27 PM, maury77 said:

He's the first guy to have Keion White that high. When I watched White's tape, I was intrigued. 

 

It’s always my favorite part of the draft cycle, when Kiper, Jeremiah, and Brugler (used to be Mayock, too) come out with their top-100s and the Matt Millers of the world turn around and go “Oh Keion White? Of course! Look at the explosiveness and the bend! He’s a hot riser in my mock!” 

[Chrebetfan80]

8 hours ago, Bronxville Jets Fan said:

I disagree.  I think the risk that Rodgers retires after one year will make the 13th overall pick too rich for JD to part with.  There will have to be some meaningful 2024 conditional picks included in any package.  

I’m just not buying that the Jets will fork over a kings ransom for Rodgers.  I remember Patriots fans thought that was going to happen with Jimmy G and they ended up getting a second.  I know it’s not an apples to apples comparison but it still comes to mind.

I dont believe it to be a kings ransom, I just dont expect it to not have at least a first round pick in the deal.  could be a second this year and a second next that turns into a first if he hits incentives. I'm not sure, but I do think there will be 1 first round pick involved.

 

If you think about cap circumstances, I believe next year we have a good deal more space on the cap (someone could fact check that I am not 100% on it). if that is the case then it makes sense to put this years 1st in the deal where we will be tighter to the cap and wont have to pay a 1st round salary on top of a deal that involves Rodgers and probably some more players coming from there.  

[Chrebetfan80]

17 hours ago, derp said:

Yeah, I'm with you. I think 13 is gone for Rodgers too. That said, if 13's not gone then no Rodgers and all the more need to build up the stable of playmakers to prop up whatever league average ish at best quarterback they bring in. And agree that a trade down would make sense but I think a trade down makes sense every year so don't want to learn on that too much.

It'll be interesting to see how this stuff shakes out. Guys like Hyatt and Johnston have wide ranges at this point, on the lower end of their respective ranges they become more interesting. The WR room would benefit from a guy who can produce on volume or from a guy who can create space and big plays while threatening defenses on low volume. I they can accomplish either or both of those things cheaply, I'm all for it. 

Shame another small guy doesn't make a ton of sense as it seems like Zay Flowers can play too.

Theres more than a few guys in this draft that can play.  Flowers has some nice potential too.. The problem with this class is there is no big top 10 talent in my mind.  The high end of this draft's wr position is probably in the 20s if im being honest and then the meat of it in the 2nd rd.  

Sr bowl guys have done alright so far.  Ive absolutely loved what ive seen from Dell, and wicks has had some nice reps as well.  The kid Reed from MSU has also had a really nice week so far.  I have to go and look at yesterdays practice, im hoping Rice stepped up even more as his day 2 was better than day 1. 

[bonkertons]

16 hours ago, derp said:

Yeah, I'm with you. I think 13 is gone for Rodgers too. That said, if 13's not gone then no Rodgers and all the more need to build up the stable of playmakers to prop up whatever league average ish at best quarterback they bring in. And agree that a trade down would make sense but I think a trade down makes sense every year so don't want to learn on that too much.

It'll be interesting to see how this stuff shakes out. Guys like Hyatt and Johnston have wide ranges at this point, on the lower end of their respective ranges they become more interesting. The WR room would benefit from a guy who can produce on volume or from a guy who can create space and big plays while threatening defenses on low volume. I they can accomplish either or both of those things cheaply, I'm all for it. 

Shame another small guy doesn't make a ton of sense as it seems like Zay Flowers can play too.

What would you rather:

A) Trade the 13th and a 2nd(maybe another 1st) in '24 for Rodgers; hope Zach can figure it out on the bench for a couple of years behind his idol

or

B ) Sign Jimmy or Tannehill or someone else in that range.  Someone for 2 or 3 years tops.  Draft a Skoronski or Johnson or Jones at 13.  Trade next year's 1st, '25 1st, and whatever else(depending on where we end up picking) to move up next year for the dude in your avatar 

 

 

 

[derp]

20 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

What would you rather:

A) Trade the 13th and a 2nd(maybe another 1st) in '24 for Rodgers; hope Zach can figure it out on the bench for a couple of years behind his idol

or

B ) Sign Jimmy or Tannehill or someone else in that range.  Someone for 2 or 3 years tops.  Draft a Skoronski or Johnson or Jones at 13.  Trade next year's 1st, '25 1st, and whatever else(depending on where we end up picking) to move up next year for the dude in your avatar 

 

 

 

Probably B, but A is a totally reasonable path which makes it a good question. I like Anthony Richardson a lot too so anything involving him would be fine by me. To be honest I’d be fine with Jacoby Brissett and loading up to develop a QB somehow but I’m pretty sure I’m (understandably) completely alone on that one.

[bonkertons]

14 minutes ago, derp said:

Probably B, but A is a totally reasonable path which makes it a good question. I like Anthony Richardson a lot too so anything involving him would be fine by me. To be honest I’d be fine with Jacoby Brissett and loading up to develop a QB somehow but I’m pretty sure I’m (understandably) completely alone on that one.

I mean maybe you'd be alone on Brissett(I wouldn't hate him) but I think that strategy is my preference.  Rodgers or not, we're still going to have to draft a kid and bank all of our hopes on him.  I'd rather keep building the rest of the team now and go get that kid next year. 

[TuscanyTile2]

On 2/3/2023 at 8:53 AM, derp said:

Probably B, but A is a totally reasonable path which makes it a good question. I like Anthony Richardson a lot too so anything involving him would be fine by me. To be honest I’d be fine with Jacoby Brissett and loading up to develop a QB somehow but I’m pretty sure I’m (understandably) completely alone on that one.

Of those 2 scenarios, I'd prefer Rodgers.  But if we can't get him, my preferred route is the same as yours (sign someone like Brissett, though I'd prefer Darnold) and just continue to build though the draft.

[section314]

Did a mock on PFF last night using DJ's top 50 as a guide. Traded down a bunch in the 1st, and got a bunch of 3rd's, which I turned into pick 29, 40, 47, 74 and two 4th's. 

29) Trenton Simpson LB Clemson   DJ #30

40)Darnell Wright OT Tennessee  DJ#32

47) Joe Tippmann C Wisconsin  DJ#27

74)Steve Avila IOL TCU   DJ#36

They graded my draaft.     Simpson b+,  Wright A-  Avila c, and Tippmann F.  Somebody is very wrong, and I'm betting it's not DJ.

[derp]

3 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Of those 2 scenarios, I'd prefer Rodgers.  But if we can't get him, my preferred route is the same as yours (sign someone like Brissett, though I'd prefer Darnold) and just continue to build though the draft.

Ultimately it’s about chasing a ceiling - so I think chasing something or backtracking is fine. Honestly, it’s kind of like the WR situation last year. They went after Tyreek Hill, didn’t land him, and plan B wasn’t a Christian Kirk or DJ Chark in FA because those guys didn’t move the needle - so they drafted Garrett Wilson.

It’s close for sure. Like I alluded to in one of the posts, I think there’s an argument that Rodgers plus this roster gives a Super Bowl ceiling, so I’d be okay with it. There’s a little more confidence in that ceiling too in the short term.

That said, the medium term floor - you’ve given up draft picks to get him, he’s on the decline, he’s expensive, he’s just not good to get the team over the top in a loaded AFC, and he’s gone in a season or two - is really really low.

I’d be okay rolling the dice because it’d be fun to think of this team as competitive and I think it’d give a good window into how much QB play impacts things, but I can’t shake the idea that it’ll turn into an absolute disaster.

I like Brissett over Darnold kind of for the giving a window into the impact of QB play thing. I functionally would like an Alex Smith type to just come in and run the offense so the other weaknesses become more evident and they can clean them up prior to bringing in the young guy they’re hopefully developing. Just, someone boring, something vanilla - show me what else the team has on offense.

I think Brissett is the closest, and he should be cheap. I guess that’s kind of Garoppolo too but you know he’s almost certainly getting hurt and you’re thrusting in a backup - and he’s going to be very expensive. With Darnold or guys like Minshew there’s upside there but I don’t honestly believe it’s Super Bowl winning upside and the floor is kind of low so I think it’ll be tough to evaluate the rest of the offense. That’s my perspective anyway, certainly isn’t necessarily correct.