Florio/PFT on Carr situation

[slats]

Just now, bla bla bla said:

I think this is highly likely. The Raiders would be gambling that a team wants Carr with at least $40m guaranteed (in a new contract) AND that Carr is so done with the Raiders that he would lift his no trade clause with pressure applied.

 

I think both those things are highly likely to happen. I mean, in a worst case scenario they cut Carr and someone claims him on waivers eliminating their need to pay. Someone will like Carr on a 1 year $32m deal with $7m dead cap in 2024

Raiders could (and might have to) offer to pay some of that contract, too. They still wind up way ahead of flat out cutting him. 

[undertow]

1 hour ago, bla bla bla said:

I thought for sure he'd be cut but I think it's less likely. I'd hold onto Carr and gamble that he lifts his no trade clause to get out.

Idk why they don't let him play this season as their bridge QB.

They benched him and sent him home burning all bidges now you think the best move is to pay him 43 mil and start him again?  Part of the problem here I think is some of you guys view Carr as a top QB and others including the Raiders view him as a jag....they don't want to pay a jag 43 mil they want to move on.

[JiF]

Just now, slats said:

I hear you. I think I’d feel better about it if he was talking about another Super Bowl instead of talking about another MVP, though. I get it, but I also know I’m taking on a selfish prick. 

True but if that's what's driving him, I would assume that would mean the Jets are pretty good and all it would take is one strong team ayahuasca session to get everyone connected and viben toward one common goal. 

[chirorob]

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

If they cut him, won't they get a comp. pick? Due to his contract and snaps, probably a high one (3rd round?) I would imagine the Raiders don't GAIN more in FA than they lose after cutting Carr- arguably their best player.    

No comp for cut.

[choon328]

2 hours ago, slats said:

This is what Florio is good at, imho. Sometimes he goes down conspiracy theory rabbit holes, but this one makes logical sense. 
 
In a nutshell, the Raiders can’t officially trade Carr before March, so any deal done would force them to take on Carr’s guarantee and then they’d need the other team to follow thru when the league year starts. Josh McDaniels might be afraid of getting Josh McDanieled. Raiders aren’t letting Carr seek a trade because they prefer that he doesn’t undermine what they might be able to get. Sees the Raiders committing to his guarantees and trading him later, possibly after June 1. He doesn’t mention it, but at that point they’d probably give Carr permission being that he has a no trade clause. 
 

 

What he's failing to mention is that Carr and the Raiders can agree to move the date that his guarantee kicks in back so they can move him without having the guarantee kick in. So instead of February 15th they make it March 20th which gives the trading team 5 days to redo his deal before $40.4 million kicks in. 

If I'm Carr though I make them release me. I don't see any way the Raiders would not release him before Feb 15th unless the guarantee date is pushed back. 

[NYJCAP2]

25 minutes ago, undertow said:

I have no idea why the Raiders wouldn't just work with Carr and get whatever compensation they can...playing hardball at this point makes no sense.

The only thing I took out of this was “might be afraid of being Josh McDanieled”.

 

Because Josh McDaniels is the new evil genius. 

[JetPotato]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

The snark is palpable ... And I fear the same ... I just think the Jets land on Jimmy G or Tannehill. Leading to five more years of .. just don't lose the game .. offense.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

 

Five years? Jimmy G wouldn't make past the 5th game.

 

[Lith]

29 minutes ago, slats said:

I hear you. I think I’d feel better about it if he was talking about another Super Bowl instead of talking about another MVP, though. I get it, but I also know I’m taking on a selfish prick. 

He did.  But the only quote making the rounds is the one about the MVP.  In the same interview he said, "there is no point coming back unless you think you can win it all"

 

[slats]

15 minutes ago, choon328 said:

What he's failing to mention is that Carr and the Raiders can agree to move the date that his guarantee kicks in back so they can move him without having the guarantee kick in. So instead of February 15th they make it March 20th which gives the trading team 5 days to redo his deal before $40.4 million kicks in. 

If I'm Carr though I make them release me. I don't see any way the Raiders would not release him before Feb 15th unless the guarantee date is pushed back. 

I thought he did mention that and came to the same conclusion: no point in Carr helping the Raiders. I don’t think he can force them to cut him, though. Might be a different situation with a different player, but Carr is a guy who says he wants to play with his religious affiliation being mentioned a half dozen times in the process. This isn’t the kind of risk you take with an Antonio Brown, but Carr’s a choirboy, and with his no-trade clause, he’s got the veto power to choose where he’s playing next. 

[Beerfish]

Teams desperate for a QB might be willing to pay something more than just a late late round pick.

If you are the Raiders perhaps you get a list of teams from carr he will lift his no traded for.  Then you play them against each other.

If a team like the Jets or tennessse or others are standing out in the cold as time goes on they will get desperate.  And if they say oh just go ahead and cut him they trade him to another team.

It sounds to me like the jets are putting all of their eggs in the Rodgers basket but if time moves on and that does not pan out they could be in full panic mode along with some other teams.

[bitonti]

Prediction The Jets won't make a  big money move for Carr or Rodgers 

 

[#27TheDominator]

3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Teams desperate for a QB might be willing to pay something more than just a late late round pick.

If you are the Raiders perhaps you get a list of teams from carr he will lift his no traded for.  Then you play them against each other.

If a team like the Jets or tennessse or others are standing out in the cold as time goes on they will get desperate.  And if they say oh just go ahead and cut him they trade him to another team.

It sounds to me like the jets are putting all of their eggs in the Rodgers basket but if time moves on and that does not pan out they could be in full panic mode along with some other teams.

I am not sure how Carr would feel about giving the Raiders that list.  Sounds like the Raiders are refusing to let him shop himself around (which he would probably want to do for contract purposes) so that he doesn't undermine what they might get in a deal.  I don't think that full panic mode will come for some time because nothing can get done officially until March.  I think we are going to have another month plus of crazy speculation, then 3 days of false reports and then things will fall into place.  I wonder who will be sitting in our chair when the music stops.  I do hate the air of desperation around the Jets getting a new QB.  I would prefer to be like Atlanta.  Looking but able to at least pretend that Ridder is the Man.

[Dcat]

1 hour ago, PepPep said:

If they cut him, won't they get a comp. pick? Due to his contract and snaps, probably a high one (3rd round?) I would imagine the Raiders don't GAIN more in FA than they lose after cutting Carr- arguably their best player.    

cutting a player under contract is different from losing one to UFA at the end of his contract.  IIRC, comp picks only apply to the latter.

[Dcat]

2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Prediction The Jets won't make a  big money move for Carr or Rodgers 

 

you might have already said this.  A few times.  Maybe more.

[section314]

6 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Prediction The Jets won't make a  big money move for Carr or Rodgers 

 

I am starting to feel this way too. And to be honest, would be ok with it.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

If he's cut, that would obviously force the Jets into an immediate decision.

Do they wait on the possibility of Rodgers or go after Carr?

[JETS SB]

2 hours ago, PepPep said:

If they cut him, won't they get a comp. pick? Due to his contract and snaps, probably a high one (3rd round?) I would imagine the Raiders don't GAIN more in FA than they lose after cutting Carr- arguably their best player.    

Josh Jacobs rushing champion and Davante Adams, borderline HOFer might disagree. 

[PepPep]

9 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Teams desperate for a QB might be willing to pay something more than just a late late round pick.

If you are the Raiders perhaps you get a list of teams from carr he will lift his no traded for.  Then you play them against each other.

If a team like the Jets or tennessse or others are standing out in the cold as time goes on they will get desperate.  And if they say oh just go ahead and cut him they trade him to another team.

It sounds to me like the jets are putting all of their eggs in the Rodgers basket but if time moves on and that does not pan out they could be in full panic mode along with some other teams.

Eh. I think the Jets are just being aggressive rather than 'putting all their eggs in the Rodgers basket'. They haven't actually done anything that will prevent them from pivoting and going after one QB or another if they can't get Rodgers or things start looking like they will go sour or Rodgers is taking too long to make a decision about his future, etc.  

I don't see 'desperation' approaching until multiple avenues to get quality QBs have dried up. It could very well happen. But seems like it won't be for lack of trying. Seems like JD will be proactive. A bridge QB at a MUCH lower price tag who will probably still get us into the playoffs (barring injury) on the strength of our defense is what I envision is worst case scenario. Not JD getting fleeced out of desperation for someone he didn't really want or wasn't willing to give up that much for in the first place.    

[bla bla bla]

1 hour ago, undertow said:

They benched him and sent him home burning all bidges now you think the best move is to pay him 43 mil and start him again?  Part of the problem here I think is some of you guys view Carr as a top QB and others including the Raiders view him as a jag....they don't want to pay a jag 43 mil they want to move on.

I get they want to move on. My point was moreso that Carr's contract at $32m (12th highest paid) is not necesssrily prohibitive in a trade if they think Carr will waive his no trade clause. I don't think he should waive it because, like you, I believe he gets cut to actually hit the golden opportunity of FA.

[JETS SB]

0-7 in games 37 degrees or below, never made the playoffs, not built for NY/NJ, would need to be paid for 5+ years at huge money. Don’t want him. 

[kevinc855]

I see a lot of you guys falling off your joe Douglas is amazing horse when we enter Andy dalton/Tannehill as QB 1 and Zach as 2

Then you will get even more upset as Saleh try’s to sell you on it because of the defense. Then eventually lose a late December game due to poor QB play to get knocked out the playoffs yet again. 

2024. We start all over. 
 

Ah the cycle 

[hawk]

The Raiders completely botched this whole thing.  They sat him 1 week, to not risk injury and therefore guaranteeing his remaining contract.

If they had just held their cards to their chest, there would be a real market for him right now.

Now, everyone and their brother knows he isn't wanted, and Gave Carr all of the Leverage.

If they are dumb enough to pay his upcoming bonus, they deserve to get ****ed.

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, hawk said:

The Raiders completely botched this whole thing.  They sat him 1 week, to not risk injury and therefore guaranteeing his remaining contract.

If they had just held their cards to their chest, there would be a real market for him right now.

Now, everyone and their brother knows he isn't wanted, and Gave Carr all of the Leverage.

If they are dumb enough to pay his upcoming bonus, they deserve to get ****ed.

now he's playing flag football this weekend to spite them. lol - if he gets injured in that game they're in the same spot

[hawk]

3 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

now he's playing flag football this weekend to spite them. lol - if he gets injured in that game they're in the same spot

I didn't know that.  Lol

Hope he stays healthy, but Woah, what a kick in the nuts if he were to tear a nut.

[Beerfish]

23 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Eh. I think the Jets are just being aggressive rather than 'putting all their eggs in the Rodgers basket'. They haven't actually done anything that will prevent them from pivoting and going after one QB or another if they can't get Rodgers or things start looking like they will go sour or Rodgers is taking too long to make a decision about his future, etc.  

I don't see 'desperation' approaching until multiple avenues to get quality QBs have dried up. It could very well happen. But seems like it won't be for lack of trying. Seems like JD will be proactive. A bridge QB at a MUCH lower price tag who will probably still get us into the playoffs (barring injury) on the strength of our defense is what I envision is worst case scenario. Not JD getting fleeced out of desperation for someone he didn't really want or wasn't willing to give up that much for in the first place.    

The issue is supply and demand.  The jets have 100% committed to bringing in a vet, who is out there, Rodgers, Carr and Jimmy G.

Once a domino falls there will be scrambling and panic for some teams.

The Jets defense at this point is overrated, it did not get us into the playoffs last year when they had a big chance to do so.

If Jacoby Brissett or gadner minshew or ryan tannehill is our QB next year the front office has failed.

 

[FootballLove]

If Carr picks his next team, it will be the team that's best for HIM ($'s, sunshine, etc)

If the Raiders pick his next team, it will be the team that's best for THEM (draft picks)

Carr has the Raider's cash in a lock box, but the Raiders have Carr's balls in a lock box.

Kinda like a lot of marriages. Maybe they both need a good divorce lawyer?

[hawk]

3 hours ago, slats said:

I don’t understand why anyone sees this as some impossible scenario. It’s not much different than applying a franchise tag and trading a player, which is pretty common. 

There is no "no trade" clause with a franchise tag.

[static14]

Davis cuts his own hair to save money! There is a zero precent chance he risks being on the hook for paying a guy 40+ million to sit at home. 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

13 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

If Carr picks his next team, it will be the team that's best for HIM ($'s, sunshine, etc)

If the Raiders pick his next team, it will be the team that's best for THEM (draft picks)

Carr has the Raider's cash in a lock box, but the Raiders have Carr's balls in a lock box.

Kinda like a lot of marriages. Maybe they both need a good divorce lawyer?

The Raiders don't really have any leverage on Carr.

Any team that trades for him before 2/15 would be on the hook for those massive guarantees.

And Carr has a no-trade clause in his contract anyway, so he would have to agree to waive it.

All the Raiders can do is cut him, in which case he'd be a FA with multiple teams bidding on his services.

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

you might have already said this.  A few times.  Maybe more.

Just want to make sure I'm on the record councilor 

[varjet]

53 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

If Jacoby Brissett or gadner minshew or ryan tannehill is our QB next year the front office has failed.

It is either this or we sell the fanbase down the river with a 2 year spin with ARod. 

[PepPep]

7 minutes ago, JETS SB said:

Josh Jacobs rushing champion and Davante Adams, borderline HOFer might disagree. 

Well, I was wrong and if you cut a player you don't get a comp pick so the point is moot.

But while Adams is a great receiver and Jacobs a great RB. YES, Carr is up there as one of the best players on the team (along with Maxx Crosby). And because he is a QB, he is probably the most valuable player. So I'm not sure what your argument is. If the Raiders DID lose him to FA, qualifying them for a comp pick, I would imagine they would get a pretty high one. 3rd round being the highest. But I'm not an expert.  

[varjet]

If the Raiders are smart and mature, they cut Carr and move on.

But Mark Davis is up there with Woody?  Remember all of the drama with just letting Mo, SR and Leo go?  Woody needed SOMETHING for them-he would not let them walk.  He actually got something for two of them, and one instead signed a disasterous contract.  

In the past when we have needed a QB, we have looked at the opportunity to get guys like Cousins and thought it would work out.  I never does.  QB is the most valuable position in football.  Many teams need them.  Carr is a very good, not great, QB.  There is a market for him.  

The Raiders can be ballsy, not cut Carr, guarantee the 1.25 years at what will be a market salary for him and try to get SOMETHING for trading him.  Carr's choice will be to approve a reasonable trade, suit up for the Raiders, or not play and not get paid.  

We can all spend time predicting what will happen.  Something happens within two weeks.  But the bad owners view these players as their property, and it would not surprise me to see the Raiders surprise us.  

[Bronxville Jets Fan]

Florio also just posted this article on the same topic, which is spot on.  The last paragraph sums up the current situation between the Raiders and Carr perfectly:

And it’s absolutely better for Carr to be cut than to be traded. Unless he’s foolish enough to think it looks better to be traded than to be cut. If there’s someone willing to commit to $40.4 million fully guaranteed and to give the Raiders value for the contract, that same team would surely give Carr more than $40.4 million fully guaranteed if he’s on the open market.

[JETS SB]

10 minutes ago, PepPep said:

Well, I was wrong and if you cut a player you don't get a comp pick so the point is moot.

But while Adams is a great receiver and Jacobs a great RB. YES, Carr is up there as one of the best players on the team (along with Maxx Crosby). And because he is a QB, he is probably the most valuable player. So I'm not sure what your argument is. If the Raiders DID lose him to FA, qualifying them for a comp pick, I would imagine they would get a pretty high one. 3rd round being the highest. But I'm not an expert.  

They will not get a comp pick