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Florio/PFT on Carr situation


slats

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3 hours ago, choon328 said:

What he's failing to mention is that Carr and the Raiders can agree to move the date that his guarantee kicks in back so they can move him without having the guarantee kick in. So instead of February 15th they make it March 20th which gives the trading team 5 days to redo his deal before $40.4 million kicks in. 

If I'm Carr though I make them release me. I don't see any way the Raiders would not release him before Feb 15th unless the guarantee date is pushed back. 

Why would Carr ever agree to move it?  That’s losing leverage.  He has all of it now.  Cut he gets to have a bidding war. If they pick up option he gets his money no matter what.  
no way he ever agrees to push back deadline. 

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I don't see how that makes any sense to assume so much risk when they can cut him for very little dead cap space. There are other teams with QBs with bigger cap hits who will probably take less in a trade to get rid of those players (e.g. Tannehill). Garappolo's contract is for considerably less than Carr and others. Carr is coming off a terrible season. Unless some team really loves Carr, there's not tremendous value for other teams to pay his current contract and pay the Raiders something in a trade. Right now teams can wait to see if he gets cut and then try to negotiate a lower contract while there are other options on the table.

Teams who need a starting QB are going to sign a FA/make a trade or commit to drafting a QB before the draft. It would be insane for any team to wait until training camp to try to land their starting QB. That is at best hoping for another team's starter to get injured before the regular season at the risk of paying a large contract to a player you don't want on the field. Sure they might be able to extort a team for Carr but is Carr going to sign off on being some last minute deal to a team that didn't really want him in the first place? He already has that deal right now. 

There may be a team out there that really wants Carr and agrees to a handshake deal before the super bowl to make the trade in March, but then that team isn't going to wait until after the draft to make the trade official. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I thought for sure he'd be cut but I think it's less likely. I'd hold onto Carr and gamble that he lifts his no trade clause to get out.

Idk why they don't let him play this season as their bridge QB.

Maybe because little Josh’s is a thin skinned little weasel?  Both he and milfy have that napoleon complex.

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8 hours ago, slats said:

This is what Florio is good at, imho. Sometimes he goes down conspiracy theory rabbit holes, but this one makes logical sense. 
 
In a nutshell, the Raiders can’t officially trade Carr before March, so any deal done would force them to take on Carr’s guarantee and then they’d need the other team to follow thru when the league year starts. Josh McDaniels might be afraid of getting Josh McDanieled. Raiders aren’t letting Carr seek a trade because they prefer that he doesn’t undermine what they might be able to get. Sees the Raiders committing to his guarantees and trading him later, possibly after June 1. He doesn’t mention it, but at that point they’d probably give Carr permission being that he has a no trade clause. 
 


 

There was another one I read yesterday, that ANY injury sustained in the probowl would trigger that guarantee just like any date guarantees kicking in. It could be a twisted ankle or a pulled muscle; doesn't have to be surgery-level serious.

There's some dispute as to whether or not they get out of it by cutting him first, but since they had him through the final game of the Raiders' season, that might not be the case anymore. It's not in a Raiders game, but it's not a non-football injury either.

I don't know much detail about it beyond the above, but it'd be interesting if they couldn't get out of the injury guarantee anymore, and would've had to cut him before their last game or something.

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Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

There was another one I read yesterday, that ANY injury sustained in the probowl would trigger that guarantee just like any date guarantees kicking in. It could be a twisted ankle or a pulled muscle; doesn't have to be surgery-level serious.

There's some dispute as to whether or not they get out of it by cutting him first, but since they had him through the final game of the Raiders' season, that might not be the case anymore. It's not in a Raiders game, but it's not a non-football injury either.

I don't know much detail about it beyond the above, but it'd be interesting if they couldn't get out of the injury guarantee anymore, and would've had to cut him before their last game or something.

What if it happens in the Poulan Weed Eater Independence Pro Bowl Dodge Ball Classic brought to you by Bud Light? 

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11 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

I see a lot of you guys falling off your joe Douglas is amazing horse when we enter Andy dalton/Tannehill as QB 1 and Zach as 2

Then you will get even more upset as Saleh try’s to sell you on it because of the defense. Then eventually lose a late December game due to poor QB play to get knocked out the playoffs yet again. 

2024. We start all over. 
 

Ah the cycle 

 

617406651_RyanFitzpatrickCycle.png.bb5598006f5a8110e7b256333fcfab8f.png

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6 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

There was another one I read yesterday, that ANY injury sustained in the probowl would trigger that guarantee just like any date guarantees kicking in. It could be a twisted ankle or a pulled muscle; doesn't have to be surgery-level serious.

There's some dispute as to whether or not they get out of it by cutting him first, but since they had him through the final game of the Raiders' season, that might not be the case anymore. It's not in a Raiders game, but it's not a non-football injury either.

I don't know much detail about it beyond the above, but it'd be interesting if they couldn't get out of the injury guarantee anymore, and would've had to cut him before their last game or something.

Why even bother having the Pro Bowl then?  Let players get voted in as an accolade but don't have a game.

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14 hours ago, PepPep said:

If they cut him, won't they get a comp. pick? Due to his contract and snaps, probably a high one (3rd round?) I would imagine the Raiders don't GAIN more in FA than they lose after cutting Carr- arguably their best player.    

No.  Cut players are not included in the comp calculation.

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People acting like that 40 million Carr contract is to big of a contract for the raiders to sit on then try and trade is kidding themselves, the TV money kicks in next year Carrs contract is not a problem  

Dont be surprised the raiders pick up the 40 mill, especially with the Brady retirement  many qb needy teams and LV can definitely get something nice for him

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Agent rumor, but apparently Carr wants to go to Carolina. The whole NFC South will be in on him, but it’ll be interesting to see if Tennessee jumps in. Same agent told me Vrabel would go after him hard back in December—I placed a heavy wager on it so they better—but you have to wonder if they have the same perspective we do (hold out for Rodgers + backup plan > Carr). 

I really don’t anticipate there being a lot of mutual interest between us and he. It’s not about the city or anything like that either, just think the Jets really want Rodgers and would rather swing for that and settle for their backup plan > Carr and the kind of money/commitment/terms he’s going to seek. The only reason he’s even slightly open to a trade is to keep his contract + no trade/franchise clause 

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2 minutes ago, football guy said:

It’s not about the city or anything like that either, just think the Jets really want Rodgers and would rather swing for that and settle for their backup plan > Carr and the kind of money/commitment/terms he’s going to seek. 

Think based on knowledge or just your gut?

Do you think or know what their Plan B is?

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5 minutes ago, football guy said:

What I know:

  • Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh want to balance a win-now short-term approach with their sustained success long-term approach; they don't simply want to sell out to win this year in effort of gaining job security. 
  • There are people in the building who are convinced that Rodgers >>>>>> Garoppolo > Carr is the plan. Contrary to some speculation out there (cough cough Tony Pauline) Douglas is not openly flaunting his plan so I can't claim its coming from his mouth.
  • Douglas views the Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen type QB as the blueprint of a "perfect" QB in this era of football because of their ability to perform inside-and-outside of structure. 
  • Hackett was identified as someone they wanted to bring in the building very early on in the process, ideally as a senior advisor type, mainly due to his experience and work with Rodgers and how that kind of presence could help our QB room. 
  • Saleh identified Garoppolo as someone he "trusts" and "can win with" in meetings, and there are people with ties to the Jets who have openly argued that Jimmy G is a better option than Carr. 
  • There is a 1-year/offseason "plan" for Zach to see if he can reset into an improved version of the player they had in his first training camp technically speaking while finding a level of "calmness" mentally by relearning the position and responsibilities at his own pace under new guidance (both veteran mentor and coaching). If they determine that his confidence/mindset is broken beyond repair, they will move on and find someone else like him who they can try to develop into a franchise player (Drake Maye is a name that has been mentioned who their scouts think highly of). 
  • Woody Johnson very definitely wants a star QB because he truly believes the team can win a championship with the right guy at the helm, and money is no object to him.
  • The Jets abandoned a few of their final interview requests to lock in a deal with Hackett. 
  • The Jets and Packers have had talks and the Jets have been putting out enough signals to get Aaron's attention.
  • I have not heard anything suggesting they have spoken to the Raiders. 

Collectively, they want to bring in a guy who can win now but won't require a mega long-term commitment because: (1) their long-term vision still involves identifying a young franchise QB capable of being a top 5-10 player at the position; (2) there is internal belief that bringing in a veteran that can win now will help Douglas/Saleh develop a young QB - whether it be Zach or someone else - without sacrificing the current window; and (3) they want to build "pipelines" at critical positions by drafting and developing talent with an eye at building a year-in, year-out, sustainable winner similar to Baltimore, Philadelphia, and now Buffalo. Douglas, Saleh, and LaFleur decided to draft Zach because they felt he had the ability to be an "Aaron Rodgers/Patrick Mahomes-type player" who can be an elite player that you can consistently win with because when fully developed, that guy can win inside-and-outside of structure. A guy like that can make up for roster deficiencies as the team seeks to rebuild/retool/reload every 3-4 years. 

What I think: 

Knowing all of the above and factoring in the overarching strategy/culture they're trying to build, I am absolutely convinced Rodgers is the guy. He's exactly who they had in mind when they drafted Zach #2 overall. He fits what all the major decision makers are looking for in a veteran QB so perfectly that I think they would rather hold out for him and settle for Jimmy G (who I know Saleh likes and that Jet staffers believe is behind door #2), rather than going for Carr as the safer alternative to Rodgers. Again, they want to find their version of a Mahomes/Allen type QB long-term whether its Wilson or someone else. Carr kind of prevents that because he's probably going to require more of a commitment than the others, which hamstrings their long-term plan. No one has told me this is Douglas's plan point-blank, but I know enough to make this kind of educated guess that I feel confident about

Yeah but, what's their opinion on Tannehill? 

Just joking. Thanks for the insight.

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23 minutes ago, football guy said:

What I know:

  • Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh want to balance a win-now short-term approach with their sustained success long-term approach; they don't simply want to sell out to win this year in effort of gaining job security. 
  • There are people in the building who are convinced that Rodgers >>>>>> Garoppolo > Carr is the plan. Contrary to some speculation out there (cough cough Tony Pauline) Douglas is not openly flaunting his plan so I can't claim its coming from his mouth.
  • Douglas views the Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen type QB as the blueprint of a "perfect" QB in this era of football because of their ability to perform inside-and-outside of structure. 
  • Hackett was identified as someone they wanted to bring in the building very early on in the process, ideally as a senior advisor type, mainly due to his experience and work with Rodgers and how that kind of presence could help our QB room. 
  • Saleh identified Garoppolo as someone he "trusts" and "can win with" in meetings, and there are people with ties to the Jets who have openly argued that Jimmy G is a better option than Carr. 
  • There is a 1-year/offseason "plan" for Zach to see if he can reset into an improved version of the player they had in his first training camp technically speaking while finding a level of "calmness" mentally by relearning the position and responsibilities at his own pace under new guidance (both veteran mentor and coaching). If they determine that his confidence/mindset is broken beyond repair, they will move on and find someone else like him who they can try to develop into a franchise player (Drake Maye is a name that has been mentioned who their scouts think highly of). 
  • Woody Johnson very definitely wants a star QB because he truly believes the team can win a championship with the right guy at the helm, and money is no object to him.
  • The Jets abandoned a few of their final interview requests to lock in a deal with Hackett. 
  • The Jets and Packers have had talks and the Jets have been putting out enough signals to get Aaron's attention.
  • I have not heard anything suggesting they have spoken to the Raiders. 

Collectively, they want to bring in a guy who can win now but won't require a mega long-term commitment because: (1) their long-term vision still involves identifying a young franchise QB capable of being a top 5-10 player at the position; (2) there is internal belief that bringing in a veteran that can win now will help Douglas/Saleh develop a young QB - whether it be Zach or someone else - without sacrificing the current window; and (3) they want to build "pipelines" at critical positions by drafting and developing talent with an eye at building a year-in, year-out, sustainable winner similar to Baltimore, Philadelphia, and now Buffalo. Douglas, Saleh, and LaFleur decided to draft Zach because they felt he had the ability to be an "Aaron Rodgers/Patrick Mahomes-type player" who can be an elite player that you can consistently win with because when fully developed, that guy can win inside-and-outside of structure. A guy like that can make up for roster deficiencies as the team seeks to rebuild/retool/reload every 3-4 years. 

What I think: 

Knowing all of the above and factoring in the overarching strategy/culture they're trying to build, I am absolutely convinced Rodgers is the guy. He's exactly who they had in mind when they drafted Zach #2 overall. He fits what all the major decision makers are looking for in a veteran QB so perfectly that I think they would rather hold out for him and settle for Jimmy G (who I know Saleh likes and that Jet staffers believe is behind door #2), rather than going for Carr as the safer alternative to Rodgers. Again, they want to find their version of a Mahomes/Allen type QB long-term whether its Wilson or someone else. Carr kind of prevents that because he's probably going to require more of a commitment than the others, which hamstrings their long-term plan. No one has told me this is Douglas's plan point-blank, but I know enough to make this kind of educated guess that I feel confident about

Edit: left out the coaching aspect of all this. Familiarity is a big thing in the NFL and Saleh is a major part of this decision... naturally there are a lot of ties between he/his staff to Rodgers and Garoppolo.

This is awesome. Thank you for sharing. 

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54 minutes ago, football guy said:

Another thing to add: the conspiracy theorist in me believes that Hackett and the Jets know something that they're unwilling to let on let on - including Rodgers. I think Rodgers was tiptoeing around the Hackett question on McAfee because they want to avoid any suspicion of tampering... everyone in the league has become more sensitive to it after the NFL came down hard on the Dolphins. It's part of the reason why there's such a hold up with the Carr situation as well. 

I think you're right and I'd have a hard time believing that Rodgers and Hackett haven't already carefully discussed the topic if they're the friends that we're told they are.

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3 hours ago, varjet said:

Carr is not coming here.

The Packers want to move on from Rodgers but not look bad by getting less than Seattle got for Russell.

So the Packers will ask for the moon to assume Rodgers terrible contract and expect to get it.

And Woody will fall for it. 

Russell Wilson was 33 when he got traded. I don't think anyone expects the Packers to get near that value for a 39 y.o. Rodgers. 

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2 hours ago, football guy said:

, I am absolutely convinced Rodgers is the guy. He's exactly who they had in mind when they drafted Zach #2 overall. He fits what all the major decision makers are looking for in a veteran QB so perfectly that I think they would rather hold out for him and settle for Jimmy G (who I know Saleh likes and that Jet staffers believe is behind door #2), rather than going for Carr as the safer alternative to Rodgers

Say Jimmy has signed elsewhere and Rodgers says no to the Jets after we wait for him. Any clue who their target might be as a last ditch scenario? 

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

There are people in the building who are convinced that Rodgers >>>>>> Garoppolo > Carr is the plan.

I'm sold on this plan. My only concern is that McDaniels in LV has his eye on JG & once the Carr saga plays out they go get JG. He has been successful in McDaniels' system, DA would be his #1 with Josh Jacobs pounding the rock. All this in a "state-of-the-art" facility in a great city in a No Income Tax state of Nevada! Jets would be a tough sell.

1 hour ago, football guy said:

I think they would rather hold out for him and settle for Jimmy G (who I know Saleh likes and that Jet staffers believe is behind door #2)

 

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On 2/2/2023 at 9:13 AM, JiFields said:

I see no risk.  It's not like this is some great franchise w/ a bunch of success, it's a disaster and one of the worst in all of sports.  So what happens if he doesnt work out?  You suck?  

So in ohter words.  "When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose."

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4 hours ago, football guy said:

What I know:

  • Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh want to balance a win-now short-term approach with their sustained success long-term approach; they don't simply want to sell out to win this year in effort of gaining job security. 
  • There are people in the building who are convinced that Rodgers >>>>>> Garoppolo > Carr is the plan. Contrary to some speculation out there (cough cough Tony Pauline) Douglas is not openly flaunting his plan so I can't claim its coming from his mouth.

Hard to see how you bring in Rodgers/Carr without sacrificing the long term approach.  But I very much agree with the latter bullet point.  I'd take a healthy Garoppolo any day of the week over Carr.  Even moreso b/c of the draft capital tied into Carr.

Jimmy G would tie into a sort of intermediate 'split the difference' plan which would make sense to a certain degree.

Still these are highly contested football players.  We might simply end up needing a plan D or E.

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12 minutes ago, Hael said:

Hard to see how you bring in Rodgers/Carr without sacrificing the long term approach.  But I very much agree with the latter bullet point.  I'd take a healthy Garoppolo any day of the week over Carr.  Even moreso b/c of the draft capital tied into Carr.

Jimmy G would tie into a sort of intermediate 'split the difference' plan which would make sense to a certain degree.

Still these are highly contested football players.  We might simply end up needing a plan D or E.

I don’t think it will be as heavy a price as people think. You bring him in, try to develop Zach, and if that doesn’t bare fruit take a QB in round 1-2 next year. Won’t name names but there is some love for Drake Maye among some of the younger scouts that Joe Douglas brought here with him and really trusts. 

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