Should the Jets re-sign Quinnen Williams for 20-25 million a year?

[Dunnie]

It’s not just the money. If he walks that’s also a first round pick the jets will likely use to try to replace him that is badly needed elsewhere (ahem OL). Yeah I get we are once bitten twice shy from Mo but at some point you have to pay your guys. That said an extension now should benefit both sides. He gets guaranteed money on the table and the jets get some of the benefit for “drafting well” and get him at below market for next 1-2 years. Push as much as the cap hit as you can down the road when it’s a lower % of the cap.

I like it.

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[Bowles Movement]

On 2/6/2023 at 6:28 AM, Dunnie said:

Basically 10%

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If you look at total snaps, fwiw Quinnen played more than Bosa.   Quinnen took 74 snaps on special teams, while Bosa took 8.   Does any of this make Bosa a keeper and Quinnen tradeable?   That’s the assertion that prompted this data dump response.

[jgb]

11 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

If you look at total snaps, fwiw Quinnen played more than Bosa.   Quinnen took 74 snaps on special teams, while Bosa took 8.   Does any of this make Bosa a keeper and Quinnen tradeable?   That’s the assertion that prompted this data dump response.

Fair although once he’s making >$20M per he won’t be on specials any longer 

[Bowles Movement]

2 hours ago, jgb said:

Fair although once he’s making >$20M per he won’t be on specials any longer 

I think they value a player for what he is and can do.     I wouldn’t expect his roles to change.  He played special teams this year while playing at pro bowl level.  His salary doesn’t impact that.

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Bowles Movement said:

I think they value a player for what he is and can do.     I wouldn’t expect his roles to change.  He played special teams this year while playing at pro bowl level.  His salary doesn’t impact that.

I dunno… reward versus risk definitely involves a guys salary.

[BCJet]

13 hours ago, Flashlite80 said:

Is Quinnen a great run stuffer?  Looked like Jets had trouble stopping the run against big backs that pound the middle.

He is an excellent run stuffer, the scheme though is a mess for teams that run power/gap as the DTs are instructed to penetrate into the backfield which while it can lead to big plays, also leads to open lanes all the time.  It is a real issue for Saleh's scheme and while I have no issue with the scheme on passing downs, I dont see why we cant sign one true "run stuffing" DT to play on first down next to QW and lessen the big play runs on first down. Seems like a really easy thing to do to me....

[Rhg1084]

 

[bitonti]

right now the Saints are hosting Derek Carr despite being "impossibly" over the cap something like 33 million over. No way they could fit Derek Carr, right? 

Why does this matter to Quinnen Williams?

When the Jets do things like keep QW on a 5th year option or possible franchise tag him after that - the cap hits entirely on that year - if it's a 9 million dollar option that's what it hits for, 9 million. If it's a 15 million franchise tag, that's what it hits for, 15 mil.

they lose the opportunity cost and the win against inflation of giving a player a long term deal

over time we the fans have been brainwashed into believing that this is sound cap management, to pay everything up front. We've even been taught that the team had to "Bottom out" for a couple years to reset the "damage" that previous GMs wrought.

And yes, managing it this way gives long term flexibility. But that comes at a hidden cost to what that money could have bought, if it had been spread over years.

put it another way. If the Jets extend Quinnen, the salary is small, bonus is large but the bonus cap hit gets spread over the entire life of the deal. What else happens during that time? Inflation i.e. 1 mil in 2023 money is worth 1.05 mil in 2024 money (assuming 5% inflation, just to pick a number that's somewhat relevant)

Also the cap goes up. It went up 20 mil this year. Again, the money they pay in the near term is worth more than paying "retail" in future years

Now look at the Jets cap. they are over it by about 3 mil but very little of that is guaranteed i.e. long term money. They could restructure players to make that cap number. There's nothing stopping them from cutting Carl Lawson a check and spreading his pending 15 mil cap hit over a few years. But they are more likely to cut Carl Lawson. And then pay retail or go to the draft (short term cash deals) to find replacements. This goes for all their big money vets, even guys they just gave money to like Laken. They can add bonus and create cap and worry about the void years at a later date.  

When agents say "the Jets are cheap" this is what they mean. They don't play the "extensions/restructure" game so all their payment is up front. It feels like a responsible way to run a football team, but what it really does is prevent the ownership from cutting large checks to anyone but free agents who just arrived and highly picked draft guys like Zach. 

Bootlicks will say that the Jets simply didn't have any players worth paying over the last 10 years. But even if we grant that for the sake of argument, QW changes that. Now it's going to be "he doesn't play enough snaps" or whatever BS we can make up to bash him on the way out of town

It also leads to dumb decisions for example Q could have been extended before 2022, instead it will cost 30-50 mil more after the season. What happens if he makes the Pro Bowl again? The longer they wait the better he plays and the higher his price goes. That's how we end up bashing our own players and rooting for a draft day trade QW for a couple of 2nd round picks. Jets economics 

the british have a saying "pennywise but pound foolish" which applies. The Jets keep all their guys on short term high cash easy deals to get out of and never end up extending anyone. 

It's not Free agency. They don't have to wait until March 15 to sign their own guys. There's nothing stopping them from extending Quinnen or any number of guys other than the desire to avoid cutting big checks. and by not doing it, they are losing the space that extending QW would have allowed them to go get another player. Doing it this way with 5 or 10 good players, you're losing 30-50 mil in imaginary cap

but meanwhile what about the Saints? They will restructure a bunch of dudes like their linemen Erik McCoy, Ryan Ramcyzk and other young defenders and magically find the room for Derek Carr. Because the dirty secret in the the NFL is that the cap can be managed if you want to pay your way out of it. A good lineman can play for 10-15 years. They just keep pushing the cap hit out and survive another day.

The Jets would rather not do that, would rather pay a guy like George Fant 10 mil/2 years  up front so he's easy to cut. Not that I even like George Fant. But here we are watching George Fant go when Cleveland is extending Jack Conklin.

[UntouchableCrew]

Yes, pay him. He's a high character guy who was a First Team All-Pro. Homegrown -- one of the only true homegrown talents on this team.

I get the "one season" arguments but I don't think the Jets are in a position to cheap out or play hardball with homegrown studs. These guys (QW, Sauce, GW) are the guys you actually give the mega contracts to. Cheap out or play "prove it" elsewhere.

[Sperm Edwards]

20 hours ago, jgb said:

It’s not just the money. If he walks that’s also a first round pick the jets will likely use to try to replace him that is badly needed elsewhere (ahem OL). Yeah I get we are once bitten twice shy from Mo but at some point you have to pay your guys. That said an extension now should benefit both sides. He gets guaranteed money on the table and the jets get some of the benefit for “drafting well” and get him at below market for next 1-2 years. Push as much as the cap hit as you can down the road when it’s a lower % of the cap.

This is always the forgotten part of the equation. They're not going to let QW go to another team, instantly find an adequate replacement at a fraction of the $, and then profit the rest by using it on savior #2. They're going to burn big resources on savior #2b instead of using it on savior #2a at another position of need.

Also if there's a ****ing chance in hell they can get him for the lower end of that $20-25MM range (which I doubt is possible) they should get it signed before both the player and his agent both recover from their simultaneous temporary brain damage. Even if it's the upper end of it, same thing. No he's not Aaron Donald at his very best MVP form, but that doesn't matter: no one else is, but still the precedent has been set and Donald got ~$32MM/year on his last extension before the 2022 season under a much lower cap ceiling.

Anyone who thinks that precedent doesn't matter should see how many lesser QBs are now in the Mahomes-extension range on an annualized basis (putting aside that, unlike those after him, Mahomes had to lock himself in at that $ for a decade to get it). His $45MM/year is an under-market contract and KC has him under that contract through 2031. Then a year later Kyler Murray gets more than that per season on a contract that locks him in only half as long, but with even more fully guaranteed at signing.

Contemplating this is ****ing stupid, unless the Jets have inside knowledge (that fans don't) of serious personality issues like Mo had. His price will only go up. 

Expect more than $25MM at this point, and be that much more thrilled if it isn't, but still be thrilled we have one of the league's most special veteran players on the Jets, and he's still only going to be 26 this coming season.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This is always the forgotten part of the equation. They're not going to let QW go to another team, instantly find an adequate replacement at a fraction of the $, and then profit the rest by using it on savior #2. They're going to burn big resources on savior #2b instead of using it on savior #2a at another position of need.

Also if there's a ****ing chance in hell they can get him for the lower end of that $20-25MM range (which I doubt is possible) they should get it signed before both the player and his agent both recover from their simultaneous temporary brain damage. Even if it's the upper end of it, same thing. No he's not Aaron Donald at his very best MVP form, but that doesn't matter: no one else is, but still the precedent has been set and Donald got ~$32MM/year on his last extension before the 2022 season under a much lower cap ceiling.

Anyone who thinks that precedent doesn't matter should see how many lesser QBs are now in the Mahomes-extension range on an annualized basis (putting aside that, unlike those after him, Mahomes had to lock himself in at that $ for a decade to get it). His $45MM/year is an under-market contract and KC has him under that contract through 2031. Then a year later Kyler Murray gets more than that per season on a contract that locks him in only half as long, but with even more fully guaranteed at signing.

Contemplating this is ****ing stupid, unless the Jets have inside knowledge (that fans don't) of serious personality issues like Mo had. His price will only go up. 

Expect more than $25MM at this point, and be that much more thrilled if it isn't, but still be thrilled we have one of the league's most special veteran players on the Jets, and he's still only going to be 26 this coming season.

My wiener tingles when you agree with me on a cap-related post 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

right now the Saints are hosting Derek Carr despite being "impossibly" over the cap something like 33 million over. No way they could fit Derek Carr, right? 

Why does this matter to Quinnen Williams?

When the Jets do things like keep QW on a 5th year option or possible franchise tag him after that - the cap hits entirely on that year - if it's a 9 million dollar option that's what it hits for, 9 million. If it's a 15 million franchise tag, that's what it hits for, 15 mil.

they lose the opportunity cost and the win against inflation of giving a player a long term deal

over time we the fans have been brainwashed into believing that this is sound cap management, to pay everything up front. We've even been taught that the team had to "Bottom out" for a couple years to reset the "damage" that previous GMs wrought.

And yes, managing it this way gives long term flexibility. But that comes at a hidden cost to what that money could have bought, if it had been spread over years.

put it another way. If the Jets extend Quinnen, the salary is small, bonus is large but the bonus cap hit gets spread over the entire life of the deal. What else happens during that time? Inflation i.e. 1 mil in 2023 money is worth 1.05 mil in 2024 money (assuming 5% inflation, just to pick a number that's somewhat relevant)

Also the cap goes up. It went up 20 mil this year. Again, the money they pay in the near term is worth more than paying "retail" in future years

Now look at the Jets cap. they are over it by about 3 mil but very little of that is guaranteed i.e. long term money. They could restructure players to make that cap number. There's nothing stopping them from cutting Carl Lawson a check and spreading his pending 15 mil cap hit over a few years. But they are more likely to cut Carl Lawson. And then pay retail or go to the draft (short term cash deals) to find replacements. This goes for all their big money vets, even guys they just gave money to like Laken. They can add bonus and create cap and worry about the void years at a later date.  

When agents say "the Jets are cheap" this is what they mean. They don't play the "extensions/restructure" game so all their payment is up front. It feels like a responsible way to run a football team, but what it really does is prevent the ownership from cutting large checks to anyone but free agents who just arrived and highly picked draft guys like Zach. 

Bootlicks will say that the Jets simply didn't have any players worth paying over the last 10 years. But even if we grant that for the sake of argument, QW changes that. Now it's going to be "he doesn't play enough snaps" or whatever BS we can make up to bash him on the way out of town

It also leads to dumb decisions for example Q could have been extended before 2022, instead it will cost 30-50 mil more after the season. What happens if he makes the Pro Bowl again? The longer they wait the better he plays and the higher his price goes. That's how we end up bashing our own players and rooting for a draft day trade QW for a couple of 2nd round picks. Jets economics 

the british have a saying "pennywise but pound foolish" which applies. The Jets keep all their guys on short term high cash easy deals to get out of and never end up extending anyone. 

It's not Free agency. They don't have to wait until March 15 to sign their own guys. There's nothing stopping them from extending Quinnen or any number of guys other than the desire to avoid cutting big checks. and by not doing it, they are losing the space that extending QW would have allowed them to go get another player. Doing it this way with 5 or 10 good players, you're losing 30-50 mil in imaginary cap

but meanwhile what about the Saints? They will restructure a bunch of dudes like their linemen Erik McCoy, Ryan Ramcyzk and other young defenders and magically find the room for Derek Carr. Because the dirty secret in the the NFL is that the cap can be managed if you want to pay your way out of it. A good lineman can play for 10-15 years. They just keep pushing the cap hit out and survive another day.

The Jets would rather not do that, would rather pay a guy like George Fant 10 mil/2 years  up front so he's easy to cut. Not that I even like George Fant. But here we are watching George Fant go when Cleveland is extending Jack Conklin.

This post is a gem and a glorious summary of Jets fan Stockholm Syndrome. We have an obsession with  worshipping our “loyal” JAGs and bashing our “money hungry” stars for the “crime” of wanting to be compensated as their fellow stars around the league are compensated.