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Jets Can’t Afford to sit Idle with Carr on the Market, but There are Obstacles to Overcome


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Over their final eight games of the Jets 2022 season, GM Joe Douglas sat and watched the team’s defense allow 20 points or less on six different occasions. Of those six, the Jets would lost five.  Incredibly, two of those losses came with the Jets surrendering just 11 and 10 points to the Dolphins and Patriots respectively.

With that being the case, the Jets have made it well known that a veteran quarterback will top their shopping list.  With former Raider Derek Carr hitting the market, Douglas shouldn’t hesitate to make a strong push to add Carr.

Sure, there are several options for the Jets to consider, and none are perfect, but Carr’s concerns are probably the least worrisome of the top candidates.

The Jets could make a push for Aaron Rodgers, but who says he doesn’t retire after next season?  How many premium picks would you be happy to see the Jets give up to have a QB for a single season?

Lamar Jackson?  A dynamic player who will cost you more picks and money than any QB on the market, but who has also seen his production decline while missing 11 of his past 25 games.  Are the 700+ career carries catching up with him?  Imagine giving up 3 first-round picks and $50 mil per season only to find out Jackson can’t use his legs as well as he has in the past, and removes the threat he poses as a runner.

Jimmy Garoppolo is another name we’ve heard thrown around quite a bit but he’s had more injuries than Jackson and brings less to the table.  The fact that like Carr, he won’t cost any draft capital makes him intriguing, but the injury history is scary.  Do you pay him $30 mil per year only to turn to Mike White in week seven when Garoppolo lands on IR?

There are two big knocks on Carr.  One is downright ridiculous, while the other is based on a very limited sample size.  Some cite Carr’s career win/loss record, as if that’s solely a quarterback stat.  That was the same criticism some levied against Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford based on his time with the Lions.  It’s almost as if one’s supporting cast matters, eh?

The other, of course, is Carr’s poor performances in freezing temps, where the QB is 0-7.  So do the Jets pass up on a franchise quarterback who still has 7-8 years left in him based on seven games?  That would seem a bit risky at this point.

Carr is said to be generating interest from up to 10 teams, meaning the Jets will have plenty of competition.  This is where things could get tricky for Douglas.

If cold weather truly is an issue for Carr, a lifelong California kid, the Jets may be out of the running before any offers are even made.  If a player doesn’t want to play for a given team for any reason, there’s nothing the GM can do about that. With teams like Tampa Bay, Carolina and Atlanta looking for a QB, Carr could focus all of his attention on warmer weather teams.

Then of course there’s the building they play in.  Part of courting free agents is showing off their new home stadium.  In the case of the Jets, there might only be one or two stadiums in the NFL with less appeal than the oversized air conditioner known as MetLife Stadium.

And while fans can talk all day about offering the most money, Carr has been in the league for a quite some time and has made a ton of cash.  With so many teams interested, getting a big enough pay day won’t be a problem.  But what Carr doesn’t have is a Super Bowl ring.

It’ll be up to Joe Douglas to convince him that of all the teams in the running, the Jets give him the best shot at a ring, and Douglas may not be far off.  After fielding one of the top defenses in the NFL in 2022, expectations are high for the unit in the foreseeable future with the young talent the team has in place.

In his time with the Raiders, no NFL franchise allowed more points than the defenses Carr played with.  That alone should tell you all you need to know about the “losing record” that Carr’s detractors ate so keen to point out.

Douglas knows what the goal is.  This team has to find its way to the post season and make some noise.  Carr offers more years than Rodgers, more durability than Jackson and Garoppolo and can be had without surrendering draft choices.  Now Douglas has to do everything he can to make it happen.

 

 

The post Jets Can’t Afford to sit Idle with Carr on the Market, but There are Obstacles to Overcome appeared first on JetNation.com (NY Jets Blog & Forum).

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57 minutes ago, JetNation said:

Carr is said to be generating interest from up to 10 teams, meaning the Jets will have plenty of competition.  This is where things could get tricky for Douglas.

This is "interest" from the article's author, not actually from those 10 teams.

It's just a list of teams with an opening at QB, not necessarily teams that are interested in him (nor any of the others available, specifically). Every one of these 10 teams isn't cold-calling the agents for each FA QB. 

Quote

Below is a list of potential destinations, complete with pros and cons and -- I PROMISE -- in no particular order. 

Jump to a team:
Jets | Panthers | Texans
Saints | Bucs | Falcons | Colts
Commanders | 49ers | Titans

_end_rule.png

I'm not an ESPN subscriber so I can't read the rest of the article, but if the 49ers have shown interest in guaranteeing a veteran QB some $40MM/year for the next 2-3 years, while they already have a starter locked up for less than the veteran minimum plus a 3rd overall draft pick with him, that's news to me.

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This is "interest" from the article's author, not actually from those 10 teams.

It's just a list of teams with an opening at QB, not necessarily teams that are interested in him (nor any of the others available, specifically). Every one of these 10 teams isn't cold-calling the agents for each FA QB. 

I'm not an ESPN subscriber so I can't read the rest of the article, but if the 49ers have shown interest in guaranteeing a veteran QB some $40MM/year for the next 2-3 years, while they already have a starter locked up for less than the veteran minimum plus a 3rd overall draft pick with him, that's news to me.

10 sounds inflated by ESPN, but it'll definitely be minimum of six so the point still stands.  Lots of competition.

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38 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This is "interest" from the article's author, not actually from those 10 teams.

It's just a list of teams with an opening at QB, not necessarily teams that are interested in him (nor any of the others available, specifically). Every one of these 10 teams isn't cold-calling the agents for each FA QB. 

I'm not an ESPN subscriber so I can't read the rest of the article, but if the 49ers have shown interest in guaranteeing a veteran QB some $40MM/year for the next 2-3 years, while they already have a starter locked up for less than the veteran minimum plus a 3rd overall draft pick with him, that's news to me.

Agreed.  Niners are no chance, as are the Texans and Colts(draft).  Bucs are rebuilding from what I've read, so that would rule them out - my guess is they attempt to tank this year and go for one of the big draft QBs next year. 

 

I think it's just us, the Saints and the Titans.   Maybe Washington as well.  I think Atlanta either goes for one of these kid QBs in the draft or perhaps looks to deal for Lamar.  So yeah, we have to outbid 3 other teams.  Not sure I would put us as a favorite, but the situation isn't as dire as "10 teams are interested".  

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13 minutes ago, jgb said:

A huge plus for Carr that we then have time to turn back to the draft at some point and have the new guy sit and learn 

No draft capital is another YUGE one. That’s 2-3 premium picks we can use on OL or EDGE over the next two years.

I don't know what the compensation is for Rodgers, but it's only speculation that it'd be upwards of 3 premium picks. Everyone knows he's turning 40. This isn't going to be anything like trading for Watson at age 26, or even SF trading up for Lance.

There's the Alex Smith trade (a pair of 2nds) but Smith was not only still in his 20s but was locked in at just $8.5MM for the season. When he was 5 years older, coming off back to back PB seasons, the compensation from Washington was just a mid-3rd rounder & a NB.

Even the compensation for Carr was rumored to be in that 3rd round range, too, before the player vetoed any transaction to anywhere.

I mean, never say never, but it seems really unlikely. The closer precedent is Favre, who cost a single 3rd rounder, which perhaps holds that much more weight when the two teams involved are the same (with a similar situation of the player wanting a divorce, though dissimilar in that officially Favre had retired even if everyone knew he still wanted to play; just for a different team). 

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't know what the compensation is for Rodgers, but it's only speculation that it'd be upwards of 3 premium picks. Everyone knows he's turning 40. This isn't going to be anything like trading for Watson at age 26, or even SF trading up for Lance.

There's the Alex Smith trade (a pair of 2nds) but Smith was not only still in his 20s but was locked in at just $8.5MM for the season. When he was 5 years older, coming off back to back PB seasons, the compensation from Washington was just a mid-3rd rounder & a NB.

Even the compensation for Carr was rumored to be in that 3rd round range, too, before the player vetoed any transaction to anywhere.

I mean, never say never, but it seems really unlikely. The closer precedent is Favre, who cost a single 3rd rounder, which perhaps holds that much more weight when the two teams involved are the same (with a similar situation of the player wanting a divorce, though dissimilar in that officially Favre had retired even if everyone knew he still wanted to play; just for a different team). 

Fair on Rodgers was also including Lamar in that. 

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2 hours ago, jgb said:

A huge plus for Carr that we then have time to turn back to the draft at some point and have the new guy sit and learn 

No draft capital is another YUGE one. That’s 2-3 premium picks we can use on OL or EDGE over the next two years.

 

That's what makes Carr the best choice for me. I love holding onto all those premium picks. We need more homegrown players. The Ravens do it that way, and that's were Joe Douglas learned a lot from Ozzie Newsome.

 

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26 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

 

That's what makes Carr the best choice for me. I love holding onto all those premium picks. We need more homegrown players. The Ravens do it that way, and that's were Joe Douglas learned a lot from Ozzie Newsome.

 

Problem is Carr slams door on BYU and unfortunately that might be a not-insignificant factor in the Jets’ approach.

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I get the argument for Carr but the thing that worries me is that none of his head coaches seemed to really think he was "the guy" His stats are good and he seems like a competent QB when you watch him but something about him seems to rub coaches the wrong way. Outside of the Sauce tweet, I don't really think the Jets are pursuing Carr but I guess we will know pretty soon.

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55 minutes ago, jgb said:

Fair on Rodgers was also including Lamar in that. 

Oh that's totally different. For sure, LJ would garner Watson-like compensation (or anyway, it'd be reasonable to think that'd be Baltimore's starting point of any negotiation). 

Truth is I'm curious what a Rodgers trade would (or will) look like. While I doubt it'd be the case, I couldn't fully rule out multiple 1sts because people are involved, but I tend to think that's less likely.

I'd have to think at least some of it would be tied to his being here multiple years, which means either less up front, or with a big give-back later if he unexpectedly calls it quits after 1 season. e.g. let's say it's even a 2nd in 2023 and a 1st in 2024; if he sits out 2024 (which won't be known on draft day, I guess unless he files his retirement papers, but players un-retire so maybe not even that) then there's a 1st rounder returned from GB in 2025, or something like that. His new team still wouldn't be made whole, as a 1st this year is almost universally valued than a 1st next year, but that's all subject to negotiations. Or otherwise, the picks could follow the season, which would also allow there to be some performance or success (his or the team's) to be factored in: e.g. picks in 2024/2025 instead of 2023/2024. Doubtful GB wants that, but again, depends on negotiations & competition from one or more interested parties.

That'd be closer to the Carson Palmer trade in principle. Trade was in 2011. The compensation was a 1st in 2012 & a 2nd in 2013 that would've upgraded to a 1st & then another 1st if Oakland made the title game in either 2011 or 2012, which of course didn't happen. Also note as of trade time Palmer was the same age as Derek Carr (32) than Rodgers (39).

We'll find out soon enough. 

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28 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Oh that's totally different. For sure, LJ would garner Watson-like compensation (or anyway, it'd be reasonable to think that'd be Baltimore's starting point of any negotiation). 

Truth is I'm curious what a Rodgers trade would (or will) look like. While I doubt it'd be the case, I couldn't fully rule out multiple 1sts because people are involved, but I tend to think that's less likely.

I'd have to think at least some of it would be tied to his being here multiple years, which means either less up front, or with a big give-back later if he unexpectedly calls it quits after 1 season. e.g. let's say it's even a 2nd in 2023 and a 1st in 2024; if he sits out 2024 (which won't be known on draft day, I guess unless he files his retirement papers, but players un-retire so maybe not even that) then there's a 1st rounder returned from GB in 2025, or something like that. His new team still wouldn't be made whole, as a 1st this year is almost universally valued than a 1st next year, but that's all subject to negotiations. Or otherwise, the picks could follow the season, which would also allow there to be some performance or success (his or the team's) to be factored in: e.g. picks in 2024/2025 instead of 2023/2024. Doubtful GB wants that, but again, depends on negotiations & competition from one or more interested parties.

That'd be closer to the Carson Palmer trade in principle. Trade was in 2011. The compensation was a 1st in 2012 & a 2nd in 2013 that would've upgraded to a 1st & then another 1st if Oakland made the title game in either 2011 or 2012, which of course didn't happen. Also note as of trade time Palmer was the same age as Derek Carr (32) than Rodgers (39).

We'll find out soon enough. 

Also very curious how such a deal will be structured. Perhaps some of the trade compensation based on how many games he’s rostered for 2024…. 

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1 hour ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

Sleeper team could be the dolphins...they are gambling with Tua...one shot away from "Where am I" land.

They have a very competitive team right now.  Aruably better than the Jets and Tua really should retire.  He's done.  Plus no income tax and it's a good place to retire.  Should be a great landing spot for Rodgers.  

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2 hours ago, Greensleeves said:

Forget about the stadium - non issue. Players are at the Jets facility most of the time and it's one of the best from what I've heard. They play 8 or 9 games there, hopefully more. Every day they go to work at One Jets Drive.

Yeah as writers say you have to “look for the note behind the note.” No one says the Giants can’t recruit because of the stadium. It’s all about the team.

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13 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yeah as writers say you have to “look for the note behind the note.” No one says the Giants can’t recruit because of the stadium. It’s all about the team.

You are flying the face of many on here including Mr beningo himself who insist the reason for the Jets lack of success is they do not have their own stadium and more recently play in the ugliest stadium in the NFL.

You bring up a great point that for some reason that same ugly stadium does not apply to the Giants since they have won a superbowl while playing there and to take it one step further their headquarters is basically a brick building built at the end of the parking lot facing route 3.

The Jets by comparison literally built a country club in a beautiful suburb in NJ - so from an astehtics value which by the way means absolutely nothing, not one player in the league would chose the Giants over the Jets.  

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7 minutes ago, Trotter said:

You are flying the face of many on here including Mr beningo himself who insist the reason for the Jets lack of success is they do not have their own stadium and more recently play in the ugliest stadium in the NFL.

You bring up a great point that for some reason that same ugly stadium does not apply to the Giants since they have won a superbowl while playing there and to take it one step further their headquarters is basically a brick building built at the end of the parking lot facing route 3.

The Jets by comparison literally built a country club in a beautiful suburb in NJ - so from an astehtics value which by the way means absolutely nothing, not one player in the league would chose the Giants over the Jets.  

Beningo looks at this as a fan not as a player, as that's the population to which he's far closer.

If the stadium was good enough to host a Super Bowl - in the NJ winter, mind you - it's not keeping one player from signing here.

If the stadium was routinely empty, maybe. But they see the inside from the field or the locker room, not the fan parking lots from however-far away, nor commuters who pass it by some 250x per year, year after year.

Also he is a loon.

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Just now, T0mShane said:

FWIW, Cimini says if they don’t get Rodgers, they’d pivot to Tannehill, not Carr

This makes sense.  I can't imagine the dropoff from Carr to Tannehill is all that big performance wise.  The draft comp would be much much cheaper than Rodgers/Lamar, and the contract would be much much less of a commitment than Carr.

Plus it keeps Woody's dumbass idea of developing Zach alive :eye roll:

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5 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

This makes sense.  I can't imagine the dropoff from Carr to Tannehill is all that big performance wise.  The draft comp would be much much cheaper than Rodgers/Lamar, and the contract would be much much less of a commitment than Carr.

Plus it keeps Woody's dumbass idea of developing Zach alive :eye roll:

+1. Given the Downing and Keith Carter hires, it stands to reason that they’re going to be a ground and pound team anyway, so maybe the QB is de-emphasized regardless of who’s playing it. Even Hackett’s natural disposition is to be run-heavy. It would sicken me to see Zach Wilson take another snap in a Jets uni, but hopefully Tannehill can have a little resurgence here if it comes to be. He seems to be a cooler guy, generally, than Carr and Rodgers. 

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